How relations between Russia and Germany will change after the elections to the Bundestag

Today, September 26, the next parliamentary elections will be held in Germany. The citizens of Germany will elect the deputies of the Bundestag of the twentieth convocation, who in turn will elect a new chancellor. Germany is the largest and most influential EU country, while at the same time it is Russia's key economic partner in Europe. This is why elections that can radically change the German foreign policy agenda are so important to relations between Berlin and Moscow.

We say "German politics" - we mean Merkel

German policy the last decade and a half is best characterized by just one name: Angela Merkel. Having become chancellor back in 2005, today Merkel is not just one of the most popular German politicians. Today it is German politics. It gained too much political weight during this time, Germany made too big a leap during the years of her reign.



It's hard to imagine, but for the first time becoming chancellor sixteen years ago, Merkel got into control of a country whose budget deficit exceeded three percent, GDP growth rates did not even reach the EU average, and unemployment reached almost twelve percent. Simply put, if the then Germany was not a part of the EU and wanted to join it, then it would simply not be accepted due to the inconsistency with the Maastricht criteria. As you know, countries with too complex economic the situation in the EU is simply not allowed.

This was the price for the unification of the two Germany: capitalist and socialist. Their economic systems were too different, it was too difficult to put the work of the economy in the GDR and FRG on a single track.

Nevertheless, after years of Merkel's leadership, a united Germany is not only no longer a weak link in the EU, but, on the contrary, acts as a locomotive for the development of the entire European economy. As a result, some economists have even begun to describe the period of accelerated growth of the German economy in the XNUMXst century as the Second German Economic Miracle.

In turn, Merkel's political longevity has also become the talk of the town. For example, her predecessor Gerhard Schroeder ruled Germany for only seven years, while during the reign of Merkel, neighboring France managed to change four presidents. However, no ruler can stay at the head of state forever, and in 2018, Merkel decided not to run for the post of chancellor in the next parliamentary elections.

At the same time, the main electoral paradox was that in recent years Merkel not only overshadowed the rating of her own party with her popularity, but also influenced, albeit, most likely, against her will, on the electoral habits of German citizens. If before Merkel came to power and in the first years of her rule they were more focused on political parties and their programs, then over time the vector of their electoral preferences shifted towards the personal qualities of a candidate for the post of chancellor. Simply put, German politics has become much more personified, tied more to the public image of individual politicians than to the program of their parties.

As a result of this radical change, it was Merkel's own party that suffered most. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which ruled in coalition with the Christian Social Union (CSU) since 2005 (the SPD joined them in the parliament in 2005-2009). Today he has practically no chance of an unconditional victory in these elections. And the reason for this is not so much the program, as they are called in Germany, of the “allied parties,” so much the personality of the candidate they nominate for the post of chancellor - the successor chosen by Merkel.

Three "chancellors"

By the 2021 elections, three parties had the most significant political support: the alliance of the CDU / CSU, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) and the Greens. As expected, by the start of the election campaign, each of them decided on a candidate for the post of chancellor, who headed her electoral list.

From the CDU / CSU bloc, the new chairman of the CDU, Prime Minister of the federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Armin Laschet, is running for chancellor. From the party "Union 90 / Greens" - its head, Annalena Berbock. From the SPD - the current Vice-Chancellor and Minister of Finance of the Federal Republic of Germany, Olaf Scholz.

To understand what to expect from the likely chancellors and how their election may affect relations between Russia and Germany, we will consider each of them in more detail.

Armin Lashet

Armin Laschet is a classic example of a moderately liberal European politician. Not too right, not too left - ideal for the centrist conservative bloc, which is the CDU / CSU. It became the second version of "Operation Successor" performed by Angela Merkel after the political failure of her previous alleged heiress - Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who violated the unspoken party taboo on cooperation with the right-wing party "Alternative for Germany".

In recent years, Lashet has acquired the image of a politician loyal to Moscow. He is determined to build constructive relations with Russia, or at least not to worsen them. According to a number of political analysts, given the influence of Germany on the political agenda in the EU, Laschet's coming to power may mark the beginning of a thaw not only in Russian-German, but also in Russian-European relations.

Annalena Berbock

The head of the Greens, Annalena Berbock, on the issue of relations with Russia, in turn, is the complete opposite of Lashet. She speaks in favor of pursuing an extremely tough line with respect to Moscow, including, among other things, a complete cessation of political support for the Nord Stream 2 project, which is generally quite unusual for the Greens usually focused on the fight for the environment. However, given that she has a vivid reputation as America's henchman, it could hardly have been expected otherwise. According to the same Lashet, both Berbock herself and her political party are directly "controlled from the United States."

Olaf Scholz

The third candidate for the post of chancellor, Olaf Scholz, looks like something in between Laschet and Berbock in matters of relations with Russia. On the one hand, his public position does not contain any critical remarks about the Russian Federation, on the other hand, there is no evidence that he is aimed at improving them either.

“Russia and other countries must recognize that European integration will continue (...) If we want to ensure joint security in Europe, then cooperation between the European Union and Russia will be required,” he said on future interaction between Berlin and Moscow during the election campaigns.

If Scholz takes over the post of chancellor, it would be most logical to expect the maintenance of Russian-German relations at the level of the trend set by Angela Merkel in recent years. Those. support for anti-Russian sanctions will continue to be paradoxically combined with the expansion of commercial cooperation between the two countries.

It is worth noting that, based on the latest polls, it is Scholz who looks like the most likely candidate for the post of the future German Chancellor. This is helped not only by his image of a "strong business executive" from finances, but also by a significantly smaller number of failures in the course of the election campaign in comparison with his competitors.

For example, a few months before the elections, plagiarism was found in Annalena Berbock's book - an extremely serious violation by the standards of German politics. For example, in 2011, due to the plagiarism revealed in his thesis, the Minister of Defense of Germany Karl-Theodor zu Gutenberg resigned. In 2013, a similar situation was repeated with the head of the German Ministry of Education, Annette Schavan. And in 2021 - with the Minister of Family Affairs of the Federal Republic of Germany Franziska Giffey, whom even a voluntary renunciation of a controversial degree could not save from the decline of her political career.

Thus, despite the status of the shadow favorite, which Berbock had at the very beginning of the election race, she is unlikely to become the next chancellor.

Armin Laschet, on the other hand, significantly worsened his political prospects not only by his peculiar manner of answering acute questions, demonstrated during the election campaign, but also by a very unfortunate display of emotions. A politician, and especially a European and liberal one, must certainly be open, friendly and “lively” - be able to look like “your boyfriend” and at the right time laugh with everyone, for example. Nevertheless, it was laughter at the wrong time and in the wrong place that brought down Lashet's ratings. While visiting the federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia, which suffered from a devastating flood this summer, of which he is the prime minister, Laschet managed to get on camera laughing exactly at the moment when the President of the Federal Republic of Germany Steinmeier spoke about the terrible consequences of an unprecedented rampant disaster. Needless to say that on the evening of the same day Laschet was in the spotlight of absolutely all German media and social networks? It turned out silly, of course, but this is today's politics, in which episodic, but public behavior sometimes plays a much more important role than the multi-page political programs developed over the years.

In conclusion, I would like to note that whatever the results of the elections in Germany, it is important to understand that the future of Russian-German relations lies in the understanding that mutually beneficial cooperation and reliance on the principles of common sense will only benefit both sides. And the agenda imposed by the United States, designed to drive a wedge between our countries, must remain where it belongs - overseas. After all, when diplomatic relations were already established between the Russian and Prussian lands, the United States did not even exist yet.