Rosneft will be able to take over 50% of the capacity of Nord Stream 2
A few days ago, it became known that the Polish state oil and gas company PGNiG received the right to participate in the certification process of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Taking into account the difficult relations between Warsaw and Moscow and the extremely negative attitude of the Republic of Poland towards Russian-German energy cooperation, the question immediately arose, what are the prospects for successfully passing the approval procedure? Will it not turn out that the long-suffering pipeline, completed with such difficulties, stumbles at the last step?
For the sake of politeness?
It is no secret that Poland, which has staked on cooperation with the United States and Great Britain in the use of LNG and claims to be a regional gas hub, is very jealous of the Russian-German project. Warsaw has consistently opposed the launch of Nord Stream 2, pointing out that the pipeline does not meet the formal criteria for preferential certification. The fact is that de jure Nord Stream2 AG is not an operator independent of Gazprom, which violates the norms of the Third Energy Package of the European Union. For this reason, the Polish side insisted on participation in the certification process of the gas pipeline and, represented by the German branch of the state-owned company PGNiG Supply & Trading GmbH, received permission for this from The German Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur, BNetzA). on this occasion the following was said:
In the certification process, we will strive to ensure that the owner of Nord Stream 2 cannot avoid the application of requirements for unbundling of ownership, third party access and transparent tariffs that take into account the cost of the entire pipeline.
Nord Stream 2 has already been built, but it will take at least another 4 months before its start-up, which is needed for certification. There are concerns that the project may face additional difficulties due to the biased position of the Polish company. However, explanations from the German side soon followed, which put everything in its place. The Federal Network Agency said that PGNiG will not have the right to veto the decision to start the pipeline. It is not hard to guess that Berlin decided to comply with all the norms of decency and to allow its partners in the European Union to discuss the issue of the future fate of the gas pipeline, but retaining the final vote. The cost of 1 cubic meters of gas under a thousand dollars contributes to this flexibility.
Plan b"
However, it would be very imprudent for Gazprom to discount Warsaw and Washington. The United States is already preparing another package of sanctions against Nord Stream 2, and it will definitely not have a simple life. For this reason, Moscow is already clearly mentally prepared for the most radical decisions regarding the further model of gas export.
Today the state corporation Gazprom has a monopoly on gas supplies abroad. Several years ago, Rosneft and NOVATEK obtained the right to export LNG. But the situation in which Nord Stream 2 and the OPAL pipeline find themselves requires new approaches and gives a chance to liberalize the domestic gas market. Due to the norms of the EU's Third Energy Package, requiring 50% of the capacity to be reserved for other suppliers, both gas pipelines remained half empty. The only ones who could fill the missing volumes are Rosneft and NOVATEK, and Igor Sechin's company launched a new attack on the Gazprom monopoly. Apparently, this time it will be successful.
It is reported that the government is ready, as an exception, to allow Rosneft to start exporting up to 10 billion cubic meters of gas a year through the Gazprom pipeline. This can already partially solve the problem with the shortfall in volumes of Nord Stream-2 and bring to the federal budget 60 billion rubles from the severance tax and another 100 billion due to the customs export duty. In this case, the export will go on the basis of an agency agreement. Despite such comfortable conditions, the leadership of the domestic monopolist expresses displeasure at the loss of their exclusive status. The final decision on this issue must be made personally by President Vladimir Putin.
10 billion cubic meters per year - is that a lot or a little? So far, indeed, not too much, but in the future Rosneft may significantly increase its supplies. The Rospan and Kharampur projects are being considered as a resource base for starting pipeline supplies to Europe. It is expected that production at Rospan in the future may reach up to 21 billion cubic meters of gas per year, and even more at Kharampur - up to 25 billion cubic meters of gas annually. This means that in the near future Igor Sechin's company will be able to completely fill the second string of Nord Stream 2, which was empty due to the requirements of the EU's Third Energy Package.
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