Will Russia be able to abandon oil and gas

Russia is beginning to transform itself in the wake of the rapidly changing world. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has appointed Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, the “right hand of Putin”, as the curator of the national energy transition process. Will our country be able to timely build a carbon neutral the economy, and what ways should you go for this?

It is clear that all this does not come from a good life. The Russian budget is critically dependent on the export of hydrocarbons and other raw materials, and in Europe and China, our main sales markets, they set a goal to bring the consumption of fossil fuels to zero by 2050 and 2060, respectively. It will be very soon, time will fly by, you will not have time to blink an eye, and the decline in consumption will begin much earlier and will only grow.

All serious

The logic of the EU, the USA and the PRC is clear: they are transferring their economies to renewable energy sources (RES), reducing carbon emissions into the atmosphere. However, this increases the costs of European, American and Chinese producers, who are forced to use more expensive "green" energy. To eliminate this injustice, Brussels, Washington and Beijing are ready to introduce the so-called "carbon tax" - additional payments that foreign exporters must make for the right to access these markets for their products, which have a high "carbon footprint" in their production. Thus, in theory, they should be equal in the level of costs with competitors, having lost an unreasonable advantage.

Unfortunately, Russia is among these exporters along with such countries as Ukraine, Algeria, Belarus, Albania, Turkey, Egypt and Morocco. The carbon footprint will be calculated both for direct emissions (scope category 1) and indirect (scope category 2), which are carbon emissions from the production of electricity, heat, components and raw materials at a particular enterprise. Those wishing to sell their products in the European, American and Chinese markets will have to buy special emission certificates.

At the first stage, Russian producers of cement, iron and steel, aluminum, fertilizers and electricity will suffer from the additional financial burden. What is much more unpleasant, in the future, the export of oil and gas, as well as the products of their processing, will fall under the "carbon tax". Taking into account the fact that our federal budget is critically dependent on the export of hydrocarbon raw materials, the “green initiative” poses a serious threat to Russia. And there’s nothing you can do, you have to somehow adapt. But how?

National energy transition

It should be noted that preparations for the transformation began some time ago. The federal authorities hastily formed specialized committees and held meetings behind closed doors. The fact that the matter is serious can be evidenced by the appointment of the project curator of the "Putin's hand" Andrei Belousov, who is also responsible for the "dispossession" of the Russian oligarchs.

The vice-premier figuratively compared the processes taking place in the world with the industrial revolution of the XNUMXth-XNUMXth centuries and scientifictechnical revolution of the second half of the XX century. According to him, the main directions of the government's activities will be: ensuring technological modernization of production, motivating businesses to switch to more environmentally friendly production, as well as the practical implementation of "green" climate initiatives in economic activities. Sounds good, but somewhat generalized. Let's try to imagine on our own what needs to be done in order for our country to successfully keep up with the times, and not remain forever among the catching up outsiders.

First of all, I would like to say a few words about renewable energy sources. The idea itself to stop depending on fossil fuels, the reserves of which are limited, is good, so the development of renewable energy should only be supported. The only question is what will be the share of "green" energy in the total energy balance. Recent events in Texas have shown that alternative sources of energy supply have very significant risks: the blades of wind turbines can become icy and stop spinning, or even be blown down by hurricane winds, solar panels can be covered with snow or damaged by sand, etc. This means that one cannot rely solely on "green" energy, replacing traditional energy with it. They should interact with each other, and renewable energy sources should not replace, but complement.

We also need to decide what exactly Russia needs green energy for: to become a truly carbon-neutral country or simply to maintain its share in foreign markets?

If the authorities need to stay on export markets, then they need to start building wind farms, installing solar panels, biogas plants and other sources of renewable energy sources in order to get enough green kilowatts to use them in industrial production and in the extraction and transportation of natural resources. This energy can be used both directly and indirectly, using it in the process of generating "green hydrogen", which will also be involved in the creation of carbon-neutral products. In principle, there is nothing fantastic here, you have to take it and do it, since these are the new rules of the game.

If we want to make our entire economy truly carbon neutral, then the task becomes incomparably more difficult. On the one hand, it will be necessary to consistently abandon coal generation with a transition to gas, as well as nuclear power. This is a good and right thing to do, but to get a convincing result, you need to carry out a large-scale gasification of your country, build a nuclear power plant in Russia, and not abroad. Something needs to be done in terms of phasing out transport with an internal combustion engine. But then what to change them for, for electric cars, which are a dead-end branch of evolution, or switch to gas as a fuel for cars? Rather, the second.

On the other hand, it would be nice to put things in order in our forestry, where millions of hectares of taiga burn out annually, emitting clouds of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. To do this, it is necessary to restore the Federal Forestry Service, giving it the appropriate authority, material and technical base and funding, as well as begin the process of reviving the burned-out forests. By restoring the "lungs of the planet", Russia will make its significant contribution to the fight against global warming.