Strength of Gazprom. Will Russia remain an energy superpower

On September 17, speaking at the 24th Annual General Meeting of the International Business Congress, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller said:


Miller also added that Gazprom has a number of fields in Yamal, which are planned to be developed until 2132.



On the one hand, such statements look extremely optimistic even for one of the largest oil and gas companies in the world. Such large reserves and development of technologies in terms of its production, they are quite capable of ensuring the energy stability of Russia for generations to come.

On the other hand, in the context of the impending "green revolution", which undoubtedly awaits the world in the near future, the question of the relevance of these reserves inevitably arises. The transition to alternative and renewable energy sources will radically and irrevocably change the situation on the global hydrocarbon energy market, and this will primarily affect the suppliers of non-renewable resources.

Revolutionary energy transition

2021 will be a landmark year in the history of energy. This is already obvious today. The biggest energy revolution since humanity began using oil and natural gas for energy is starting right before our eyes.

The active phase of the energy transition was initiated by the European Union, which proclaimed a gradual transition to policy zero carbon emissions on its territory by 2050. However, it is already becoming obvious that the decision of Brussels will change the whole world. The plans for the introduction of a carbon tax, approved by the European regulator, will lead to the fact that the import of products with a high carbon footprint into the EU will simply become unprofitable. Considering that the European Union ranks second in the world in terms of GDP (both in nominal and in purchasing power parity) and is one of the largest importers of products in the world, there are hardly any countries that will not be affected by this decision in one way or another.

Moreover, if such a decision were made by the EU alone as an exception, that is one thing. However, the general trend of the gradual transition of the economies of developed countries to "renewable rails" is already difficult to ignore. In some states this will happen more slowly, in others faster, but there is no longer any doubt that by the middle of the XNUMXst century the energy picture of the world will be completely different.

And the first victims of the new approach to energy will be coal, oil and gas. Moreover, in this order, tk. the maximum carbon emissions into the atmosphere occur precisely when coal is burned. In second place are petroleum products. And only on the third, which is extremely important, natural gas.

At first glance, the window of opportunity for fossil fuel producers is closing, but in reality things may not be as bleak for Russia and Gazprom as it seems.

Unattainable goal

It would seem that the energy transition strategy of most developed countries implies the inevitable introduction of a zero emissions policy, but here you need to clearly understand the difference between political populism and realpolitik. A number of studies show that it is simply physically impossible to ensure the complete absence of greenhouse gas emissions where people live.

The objective reality is that if all provisions of the planned energy transition are fully implemented, the load on the electrical infrastructure will increase not by tens of percent, but several times. And this despite the fact that the experience of previous years shows that even such insignificant, at first glance, factors as a hotter summer or unsuitable weather for generating energy instantly lead to energy crises.

A striking example is the current situation in the UK, which is now experiencing a shortage of its own electricity and is forced to dramatically increase its imports from France. The reason is simple: the United Kingdom has experienced unusually calm weather in recent weeks, and the wind turbines simply do not produce the required amount of energy.

In addition, such a sharp increase in the flow led to the fact that one of the megawatt cables that supply Britain with electricity from the continent caught fire. The old infrastructure was not designed for even such a scanty increase in load compared to the coming decarbonization.

Moreover, it is important to note that this situation occurs in 2021 - at a time when the overwhelming majority of cars are still gasoline, and residential buildings and institutions are heated with gas. What will happen when the "green revolution" begins to take place for real is anyone's guess.

The future belongs to gas

Considering the love of most politicians for spectacular and memorable gestures in the minds of voters, it is logical that the energy transition will begin with the transfer of residents from cars with internal combustion engines to electric cars. Usually, what a person encounters on a daily basis, and he remembers best. That is why housing and communal services, in particular heating, will be the last sector to be converted to a renewable resource. And this will happen, at best, in decades.

Nevertheless, all this time the house needs to be heated with something. And electricity, not only will be expensive due to increased demand, but also thousands of boiler houses will have to be converted from gas to electric. Modernization costs will be colossal. As well as receipts for utilities.

The only way to mitigate the impact of the energy transition is to make it more gradual. And continue heating with the purest hydrocarbon - natural gas.

Natural gas is indeed the least harmful to the environment. The carbon footprint from the use of gas as an energy carrier is significantly lower than that of other fossil fuels. Moreover, gas is more environmentally friendly not only in terms of direct emissions from combustion, but also in the course of assessing its full production and sales cycle: production, distribution, storage and delivery to the end consumer. It is this factor that should provide Gazprom with a competitive advantage in the European and world markets.

Moreover, it is important to take into account that global warming leads not only to an overall increase in temperature on the planet, but also to an imbalance in the entire ecological system of the Earth. Natural disasters: droughts, fires and floods are just one side of the coin. Despite the general rise in temperature on the planet, the range of its fluctuations is also growing. That is, summers can be sizzling, and winters at the moment - colder. The latter will undoubtedly lead to an increase in the demand for energy resources. As Alexey Miller correctly noted, gas demand is growing, including as a result of seasonal irregularities caused by climate change.

Instead of a conclusion

The world is changing. Global warming is forcing the governments of developed countries to prioritize not only economicbut also environmental interests. And despite the fact that it is more profitable to use fossil fuels as energy carriers, the course towards building an energy system based on renewable sources has already been taken quite definitely.

Nevertheless, it is clear that in the course of the transition period, which may stretch for decades, the compromise option will be to abandon the most "dirty" hydrocarbons - coal and oil, in favor of natural gas.

It is this fact that will allow Russian Gazprom not only to remain one of the largest oil and gas companies in the world, but also to strengthen its position in the global market. The richest reserves in the world, together with the improvement of production technologies and the construction of such logistics megaprojects as Nord Stream 2, promise not only to give Russia the necessary time to restructure its domestic economy, taking into account the changing market conditions, but also to expand its foreign policy influence as a reliable trading partner. In fact, today Russia and Gazprom have voluntarily taken on the burden of energy security throughout Europe. And despite all the US attempts to prevent this, Russia is ready to make every effort to ensure that European residents are not afraid of the coming winters. Not now, not in the near future.