Winter without gas: How Europe and Ukraine will pass the heating season

A couple of days ago, gas prices in Europe set a historic record, reaching $ 960 per thousand cubic meters. After that, there was a price rollback, and now they are asking for "only" $ 800 for the same volume. The head of the Russian state corporation "Gazprom" Alexey Miller stated that the Old World will have to meet the winter with a shortage of "blue fuel". The Europeans were greedy to buy gas for 400-500 dollars, and now they will not have enough even for twice the price. But only Ukraine, which has managed to take only the worst from the process of “European integration”, can suffer the most.

As we have told, the ideal storm on the gas market of the Old World was formed by several factors at once: a cold winter that devastated underground gas storage facilities, an increase in consumption and prices for hydrocarbons in the Asia-Pacific region, and the man-made red tape that ill-wishers arranged for the Russian-German gas pipeline Nord Stream- 2 ". If desired, it can be launched in the very near future, but the decision is artificially delayed for several months, until January 2022. Well, this is their choice, and they should disentangle it. Let's see how Europe goes through the heating season 2021-2022, and how it will affect the economy EU countries. The fact is that they are all ready for this to varying degrees.

"Lucky"

Those countries that receive Russian gas directly through the pipeline system can be considered the most prepared for winter. A couple of years ago, the states of Southeast Europe were among the problematic outsiders, but everything changed thanks to the launch of the Turkish Stream. Turkey has the most diversified gas supply sources, followed by Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Serbia. Italy receives gas simultaneously from Algeria and from Russia through two pipelines at once. Also, Germany, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Austria will suffer the least from the energy shortage. They receive gas from the first Nord Stream and can increase consumption if Nord Stream 2 is put into operation.

"Unlucky"

Southwestern Europe, traditionally considered to be more prosperous, is in a much more difficult position. These are Great Britain, France, Spain and Portugal. The reason is the high share of LNG in the energy balance of these countries, as well as the reliance on renewable energy sources. The most telling example is the United Kingdom.

Great Britain is one of the leaders of the "green" movement in Europe. The British were actively closing their coal-fired power plants, the total capacity of which is now only 5 GW, developing alternative sources of energy. Gas accounts for 39 GW of total generation. And at the same time, several emergency situations happened at once: a fire broke out on a cable connecting the island state with France, from where it buys surplus atomic energy from Paris, and calm weather was established for a long time. London had to restart coal-fired power plants as well as increase its LNG purchases. Great Britain, by the way, is the second largest importer of this type of fuel. And then there was also gas prices in the Old World jumped to abnormal levels.

Here I would like to draw the attention of all passionate lovers of the ideas of economic liberalism to an interesting fact: in this enlightened and free country, the state does not in any way compensate for the cost of gas for the population and industry. This means that the British cost a thousand cubic meters for the same $ 800, plus an intermediary's markup. It's good to be a subject of Her Majesty, right? Factories have already started to close in the UK due to inadequate electricity prices.

"Unlucky"

But the worst of all, probably, will be Ukraine. In its Russophobic policy Kiev basically refuses to buy gas from Moscow directly, but takes it with a surcharge from its European partners. And now the Nezalezhnaya "blue fuel" is the most expensive in the European Union, where it is not even allowed on the doorstep. For the Ukrainian industry, or rather its remnants, 1 thousand cubic meters costs over 25 thousand hryvnias, that is, in the region of 1 thousand dollars. Let's see how many businesses survive this winter. Bravo, "servant of the people" Zelensky! Here I must say thank you to the IMF, which, in exchange for financial tranches, insists that prices for Ukraine are formed on a monthly basis based on spot prices at European hubs.

Formally “protected” are consumers-individuals who buy gas under annual contracts. The problem lies in the fact that enterprises of teplokommunenergo will be able to purchase only strictly limited volumes of gas at discounted prices, and everything from above will go at market prices. All attempts by Kiev to limit the constant growth of tariffs for Ukrainian consumers are torpedoed by Western partners. Indeed, if the Europeans themselves feel bad, then why should the "natives" be better?