Left Pivot: What if the Communists Win the Duma elections?

Already now we can conclude that a real sensation took place at the current elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation. The recognized extremist structure of Alexei Navalny - the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) - called on its supporters to vote for any party except the pro-government United Russia. At the same time, pro-Western "extremists" suggested putting a tick in front of the names of 137 candidates from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Quite strange at first glance "alliance", however, if you look at it, then such an idea still has some kind of rational grain.

Why is this important?

In our country, the key political decisions are undoubtedly made in the Kremlin, but in order to give them legal force, they must go through a certain procedure in the Federal Assembly, which consists of two chambers. Each law, without exception, is first put to a vote in the State Duma, then senators in the Federation Council vote for it, and then it is signed by the President of the Russian Federation. For the successful implementation of a legislative initiative, the ruling party must have a majority in both chambers, and best of all, if it is a constitutional majority.



By definition, it is already clear that it gives the right to rewrite the country's Constitution at its own discretion, without looking back at the opinion of other parliamentary parties. For the adoption of amendments to the Basic Law, it is necessary that two-thirds of the State Duma deputies and three-quarters of the senators vote for it. Last year, United Russia, despite objections from representatives of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, which has the second largest faction, was able to amend the Constitution, which included, among other things, "zeroing" the presidential terms of President Vladimir Putin. Earlier, on the initiative of Dmitry Medvedev, the term of office of the head of state was extended from 4 to 6 years. In addition, the presence of a majority of the pro-government party in the lower house of Parliament guarantees that the procedure for impeachment of the president cannot begin under any circumstances, since this requires the support of one third of all deputies. In theory, the party with the majority could even overcome the president's veto on the law, but it is obvious that for this it must be in opposition.

In general, a useful thing is a constitutional majority. So what's the sensation?

"Smart voting"

There are 450 deputies in the State Duma in total, but they are recruited on a mixed basis. Half of them go on party lists, where votes are distributed proportionally among the parliamentary parties that pass the 5 percent threshold. The remaining 225 "servants of the people" go by the majority principle, when voters vote for a specific person on the list. In the previous elections to the lower house, the pro-government United Russia party won a total of 334 seats, which provided it with a constitutional majority.

Today, one of the main political trends can be considered the presence of the so-called "hidden United Russia", who are nominated in elections not from the ruling party, but as self-nominated candidates. This is probably a consequence of the growth of protest sentiments in society. Earlier, Russians could express their disagreement with the nominated candidates by ticking the box next to the terms “Against all”. But this opportunity was taken away from them, and now it is necessary to vote for at least someone or not to go to the polls at all. Individuals express their protest by spoiling innocent ballots.

“Extremists” from the FBK “straddled” this protest wave, promoting the concept of the so-called “Smart Vote”. The essence of the idea is quite simple: Navalny's team draws up a list of candidates from any other party, except for the pro-government United Russia, who have a real chance of winning, and invite all those who disagree to vote for them. It is argued that in this way the President's support in the Federal Assembly is "eroded". The logic is that what is bad for Putin is good for Navalny. Separately, we note that such "support" from a recognized extremist organization may still haunt the victorious "United Russia" candidate in the future.

Left turn?

Now let's imagine what could be if, with the active support of the protest electorate, candidates from other parties can prevail over United Russia. How, then, will the political landscape in the country change?

On the one hand, it may not even be that bad. If the positions of other parties become stronger in the Federal Assembly, Parliament again has a chance to become a place for discussion. Pluralism of opinions, democracy, glasnost - was it not for this that the USSR was once destroyed from within? In the elections in 2016, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation received 35 mandates on party lists and 7 in single-mandate constituencies, after, at the by-elections in 2018, the communists received the 8th mandate. But what if they got 2021 single-member constituency seats or so in 137?

Then the Communist Party of the Russian Federation will have almost one and a half hundred votes in the State Duma, which will deprive the United Russia party of its constitutional majority. In addition, candidates from Fair Russia, 48 from the Liberal Democratic Party, 20 from Yabloko and several other representatives of lesser-known parties can get 10 more seats. There are some doubts about the "opposition" of the LDPR and "Fair Russia" towards the Kremlin, and on key issues these parties will clearly vote "right." But if the communists have from 100 to 150 deputy mandates, the adoption of controversial political decisions in Parliament will no longer be such a smooth process. It should be reminded that the Communist Party of the Russian Federation opposed raising the retirement age, against "zeroing" presidential terms and against compulsory vaccination. Competition and adversarial political process instead of "approval" - is that bad?

On the other hand, there is no need to feel unnecessary illusions about the revenge of the ideas of communism in our country. It's one thing to argue with opponents in the State Duma, get a good salary, have parliamentary immunity and a bunch of privileges, without being responsible for anything in particular, and it is quite another thing to take control of a country that is in a very difficult economic situation. Judging by the way candidates G. Zyuganov and P. Grudinin conducted their presidential campaigns, today the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is not ready for a real struggle for power. There are no bright ideological personalities capable of fighting for the presidency in an "adult" way, and therefore everything is limited to unconvincing imitation. This is probably why the pro-Western FBK is not afraid to urge people to vote for the Communists, which explains this oddity.

Apparently, the Russian Communist Party needs serious internal changes. Is it worth voting for it? On orders from the "extremists" Navalny and "to spite Putin", of course, is not necessary. If you give your vote for it, then only for those ideas that this party personifies in the hope of its future transformation. If, of course, voters sympathize with this ideology.