Iran's nuclear arsenal benefits Russia

The balance of power in the Middle East could soon change radically. Iran is literally one step away from building its own nuclear weapons. Israel is preparing to launch a preemptive strike against the facilities of the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. The United States suggests that Tehran "hurry" with a return to the JCPOA, and the latter seems to be no longer against it, but only on its own terms. What is it, political bargain?

Before discussing this topic, let's ask the question, what will happen if Iran does end up acquiring its own nuclear arsenal? If you read the liberal domestic or foreign press, you get the impression that after this there will be almost an apocalypse, and everyone will feel bad. But is it really so? Let's gather together the main arguments of the opponents of the military component of the Iranian nuclear program. These theses are most vividly presented in the publications of Ray Takei, co-author of The Pragmatic Superpower: Victory in the Cold War in the Middle East. So, what are the "terrible consequences" of Tehran's acquisition of nuclear weapons, and most importantly, do we, the Russians, care?

At first, it will be Washington's biggest diplomatic and image defeat. We cannot refrain from quoting Mr. Takei:

The emergence of a nuclear Iran, possessing not even a nuclear arsenal, but only the materials and infrastructure necessary for the urgent manufacture of an atomic bomb, will be interpreted as a major diplomatic defeat for the United States. Friends and foes will openly challenge the ability and determination of the United States to shape the course of events in the Middle East. Friends are distancing themselves from Washington, and the challenge of its policies by enemies will become more aggressive.

Here's the trouble ... "Hegemon" will receive another public "slap in the face" after Afghanistan and will cease to be the undisputed leader and authority. Or maybe it's not so bad?

SecondlyThis American analyst complains that Tehran's possession of nuclear weapons will increase its influence in the region and create a sense of "euphoria" in it, since the nuclear arsenal is a major factor in deterring potential external aggression. And again we ask ourselves the question, is it really that bad if the world becomes one truly sovereign power more? Moreover, a power that is a geopolitical enemy of the United States. The enemy of my enemy is my friend, isn't it?

ThirdlyThe appearance of a nuclear bomb in Iran will become a deterrent for Israel, notorious for its murders of citizens of the Islamic Republic involved in its nuclear program, and regular air attacks on Iranian military infrastructure in Syria. If this makes Tel Aviv's foreign policy towards its neighbors less aggressive, is that bad? It is not clear why this issue is always viewed exclusively from Israel-centric positions? What, the Jews are special, but the Iranians are no longer people or what? What does it matter at all to the national interests of Israel, for example, Russia? This is, for a moment, the main ally of the United States in the Middle East region, which is constantly bombing our own ally in the face of Syria.

FourthlyIf Tehran acquires a nuclear arsenal, then the Pentagon will have to invest huge amounts of money in the development and constant modernization of the missile defense of its Middle East bases, Israel and the allied Arab monarchies. From the point of view of Russia's national interests, is it so bad if our main geopolitical adversary bears the burden of additional military spending? Or is it only the Americans who can deploy medium-range missiles in Europe, targeting Russian cities?

Fifthly, Iranian nuclear missiles will not pose a real threat to our country. Russia has a layered missile defense system, which is designed to repel American strikes, where is Tehran against it? On the other hand, there are no such irreconcilable contradictions between Iran and the Russian Federation, we have an understanding on key issues, and we have experience of successful cooperation in Syria.

Finally, the successful implementation of the military component of the nuclear program by Tehran means that Iran will be under Western economic sanctions on an indefinite basis. This is also beneficial for Russia, since Iranian oil will de facto be permanently excluded from free circulation on the international market. On the contrary, it is unprofitable for the Kremlin to return Iran to the "nuclear deal" and remove restrictive measures from it. This is to call a spade a spade.

The bottom line is that Iran's acquisition of a nuclear arsenal will be a major geopolitical defeat for our direct opponents. From the "unlimited war" that Israel is now waging against Tehran, Tel Aviv will be forced, together with the United States, to switch to the "Cold War." The IDF and the Pentagon will have to forget about preemptive strikes against the sovereign Islamic Republic of the IDF. Is it so awful? If you look at the irreconcilable enemies India and Pakistan, they coexist quite well. Let us make a reservation that we are by no means calling anyone to anything, since it is obvious that Tehran will sooner or later successfully complete its nuclear program. We just tried to consider this controversial problem from the point of view of Russia's national interests.
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  1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 15 September 2021 16: 46
    And I constantly say that in order for peace to prevail in the Middle East, not only Israel should have nuclear weapons. And for Russia now, these are generally some advantages.
  2. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 15 September 2021 22: 38
    Since both Russia and Iran recently stated that there is no vigorous loaf and will not be there, then

    Iran's nuclear arsenal benefits Russia

    will be a major public relations failure for the country.

    There would be an excuse to do whatever the Jews, NATO and the Arab neighbors wanted, but there was no particular excuse. And how Iran is combat-ready, they show the bombing of troops in Syria and the Boeing Ukrov shot down from scratch.
    And the chance that they will be pulsed, but whoever God sends will fall, in the wrong place, much more than in North Korea, (even though they have already perked up in the ocean, where there is no one)

    And all the "partners" will be hit by trade and image.
    1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
      Ulysses (Alexey) 15 September 2021 23: 24
      Since both Russia and Iran have recently stated that there is and will not be a vigorous loaf there, then "The appearance of Iran's nuclear arsenal is beneficial to Russia" will be a major PR failure for the country.

      There will be a reason

      Iran does not have to officially crow to the whole world about its nuclear weapons.

      There is one cunningly planed country in the Middle East, which officially declares "We have no nuclear weapons, but if we hit something."

      Everyone is in the know, but the decency is respected ...

      PS I also do not quite understand why Pakistan, for example, is allowed, but Iran is not allowed?
      Nuclear weapons, the last argument in upholding its sovereignty, and Iran will not wave them without a serious reason.
      1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 15 September 2021 23: 47
        This is about Iran, and not about translations into others: Israel there, Pakistan, India, Korea or you.
        In which case, it will not be Pakistan that will be bombed, but the Minister of Foreign Affairs will be spinning ...
        This is the main salt.
        1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
          Ulysses (Alexey) 15 September 2021 23: 58
          Who will bomb?
          1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
            Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 16 September 2021 11: 06
            So Israel and now, it was reported, it is sometimes bombed. And his troops in Syria are regular.
            1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
              Ulysses (Alexey) 17 September 2021 20: 29
              It's strange that the more Iranian forces in Syria bomb Israel, the faster the pro-Iranian Hezbollah becomes stronger in Lebanon.
  3. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 15 September 2021 23: 56
    Sshasov's policy of blackmail, threats, economic blockade, and Israel's preemptive strikes and terror leave Iran no choice but to prepare for war and build up its nuclear potential following the example of S. Korea.
  4. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 18 September 2021 14: 47
    and no one is worried about the fact that religious fanatics have nuclear weapons? Already, the special services of the West and, to a lesser extent, Russia are forced to spend huge intelligence resources, tracking attempts to acquire nuclear components and sources of possible supply of such. Today, the most dangerous such source is Pakistan and North Korea. Let's add Iran here, after which the Saudis will also sharply want and we will get a world where it will no longer be possible to monitor the situation. The danger of nuclear weapons in nuclear weapons themselves. It is not difficult to secretly deliver a nuclear charge to Moscow and anywhere. Nuclear terrorism is an unprecedented threat. To sort it out later after the explosion by analyzing the source of nuclear raw materials from where the bomb would belatedly answer, to whom?

    The second aspect, if everyone has nuclear weapons, then the superiority of the main players will be leveled. This will limit the ability to use military potential for various purposes and will weaken the position of the same Russia in the world arena.
    1. Kedrovich Offline Kedrovich
      Kedrovich (Alexa980) 19 September 2021 04: 15
      The second aspect, if everyone has nuclear weapons, then the superiority of the main players will be leveled. This will limit the ability to use military potential for various purposes and weaken the position of the same Russia in the world arena.

      I have not heard more nonsense. What is the potential of different little things? It is necessary to have not just warheads, but missiles ready to launch. But small-minded people like the DPRK or Indians with packs cannot do this. Even the USA and the USSR poured billions into such systems and built for years. And just having a suitcase with a ready-made warhead doesn't mean anything.
      About terrorism. nuclear. It would have happened long ago. For this, more dirty bombs are enough. Well, even knowing the principle of operation of an atomic device, not every country will be able to create a tactical ammunition the size of an arty projectile or a backpack. Remember what size the first types of nuclear weapons were. And the secrets are still kept securely.
  5. Rusa Offline Rusa
    Rusa 24 September 2021 10: 17
    Iran is a partner of the Russian Federation in the Middle East, where, like other states, it cooperates with our country in all spheres on mutually beneficial terms, not fitting into internal affairs.
    In the near future, Iran may become a member of the SCO.