Global warming: When the "methane bomb" explodes under Russia

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The fight against climate change is the most fashionable global trend today. The leading powers - the United States, the European Union and the PRC - have set the goal of achieving "carbon neutrality" of their economies by the turn of 2050-2060. The very structure of the global energy industry is changing for this purpose: there is a process of abandoning coal and nuclear power plants with the transition to the widespread use of natural gas and, in the future, hydrogen, new environmental standards are being voluntarily and compulsorily imposed. However, all these measures may turn out to be in vain, since from the standpoint of the most "popularized" greenhouse gas, CO2 will soon replace the more dangerous methane, and no one can prevent this.

As the cause of global warming, it is customary to call the greenhouse effect, which causes the presence of certain gases in the Earth's atmosphere. Contrary to the imposed stereotype, the main greenhouse gas is not carbon dioxide, but ordinary water vapor, the contribution of which is estimated at 36–72%. It is followed by CO2 with its 9–26%, the top three is methane - CH4, whose share is 4–9%, and the fourth is ozone O3 (3–7%). Well, methane (CH4) is much more dangerous in terms of its impact on the climate, since it retains heat in the atmosphere 23 times more efficiently than carbon dioxide. The problem is that you and I are literally living on a "methane bomb" with a clockwork that has already started ticking.



"Methane bomb"


We are talking, of course, about permafrost, or permafrost. These are areas on Earth where the average temperature does not rise above 0 degrees Celsius for a period ranging from 2 years to several thousand years. Their total area on the planet is about 35 million square kilometers. In our country, the permafrost zone accounts for 60% to 65% of the entire territory. It is rather difficult to assess accurately, since the monitoring of this natural phenomenon is not all right now, and the permafrost itself turned out to be not so eternal. It started to melt, and pretty quickly. In Soviet science fiction they dreamed of melting the permafrost zone (for example, the book "March 33") and freeing up vast territories for the needs of the national economy. Alas, the reality may turn out to be somewhat different, and there will be more troubles than benefits.

It should be borne in mind that permafrost is a giant planetary freezer that stores a colossal amount of organic matter, which is collectively greater than the entire biomass on Earth. The awakened bacteria begin to actively process it, releasing CO2 and methane into the atmosphere. At the same time, the effect of synergy occurs: rotting organic matter leads to the generation of heat and accelerated melting of the lower layers of permafrost, at the same time, an increase in the greenhouse effect due to additional emission of gases will also accelerate the melting process. It turns out a real vicious circle, from which it is unrealistic to escape.

There are forecasts according to which, by 2050, an increase in methane emissions could completely nullify all efforts to "decarbonize" the global economics... At the same time, there is a risk that ancient bacteria and viruses, which have been safely stored for millions of years in what seemed to be permafrost, will "wake up". It is not known whether they will be dangerous to humans or, for example, to modern fauna. Unfortunately, these are not all the problems that await us.

The roof will go


Due to its unique geographic location, Russia is at the greatest risk of suffering from the effects of thawing permafrost. As already mentioned, 60-65% of the territory of our country is located in the permafrost zone. It is about 11 million square kilometers and is home to almost 2,4 million people. Global warming threatens them with big trouble.

At first, such large cities as Vorkuta, Ulan-Ude, Salekhard, Chita, Magadan, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and Yakutsk were built on frozen soils that were considered stable. In the Soviet period of the development of the Far North, buildings there were erected on 10-15-meter piles driven into the permafrost, which now suddenly turned out to be far from eternal. The problem is aggravated by the fact that our preference was given to high-rise buildings, and not to 1- or 2-storey buildings, as in a similar climatic zone in Canada or Alaska. Cracks in buildings have long become the hallmark of Yakutsk. The further the process of soil degradation develops, the larger the problems with the housing stock will become, and not only with it. The buildings will have to be strengthened somehow, the emergency ones will have to be resettled. An emergency with human casualties is possible if houses collapse. Whole cities will have to be rebuilt or resettled, and this is very expensive, but where? To the "Shoigu city"? It is not excluded.

Secondly, the melting of the permafrost regions will be a heavy blow to the indigenous peoples of the Far North. If the usual pasture turns into an impassable swamp, it will kill the traditional reindeer husbandry as a branch of agriculture. The Russian authorities will then have to somehow solve the problems of small peoples. It will also be difficult to switch to the cultivation of certain agricultural crops, since the soils that were tundra yesterday can hardly be called fertile. Perhaps, with warming, they will someday turn into black soil, but very soon.

Thirdly, the degradation of the structure of frozen soils will become a serious test for the domestic oil and gas sector. About 80% of gas production and 15% of oil are located in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Plus Rosneft goes to the Arctic with trillions of investments. These are expensive infrastructure, pipelines, wells, roads, airfields, etc. What will happen to all this economy when the foundation “shakes” under it?

Earlier, the Ministry for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic estimated the annual losses from this natural process in the amount of 50 to 150 billion rubles per year. Probably, this figure will only increase in the future. The most offensive thing is that it is unrealistic to reverse this natural process, you cannot freeze the permafrost back. We'll have to somehow adapt to the changes, and it's better to start doing this now.
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4 comments
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  1. -1
    14 September 2021 14: 26
    Another migration of peoples is coming. Only now from north to south and west. Hold on, Europe!
  2. -1
    14 September 2021 14: 33
    And, we have forests that are cut down, then they burn.
    Smart people bring the methane bomb closer ...
  3. -2
    15 September 2021 20: 04
    The author says that the problem will affect 2,4 million people in the Russian Federation. At first glance, the figure is large, but if you think about it, then the population of St. Petersburg alone is almost 5,4 million people, and the population of Moscow is even more, almost 12,7 million people ... so 2,4 million people are not so for the Russian Federation too much, this is less than the population of one city in the Russian Federation, or comparable to it ... so the Russian Federation will cope with this problem.
  4. 0
    22 September 2021 13: 10
    Nonsense. There is no "warming" or "cooling off". And the permafrost has not gone anywhere. Seriously, everything that this author wrote is such a long-term and long-lasting process that it is not even necessary to say. Thousands of years. You just need to cheat someone again and rob someone. On a global scale, of course. So they come up with all sorts of crap, relying on the "conclusions" of "famous scientists." All lies.