Putin and Lukashenko took 28 steps towards the Union State

On September 9, a meeting of the leaders of Russia and Belarus took place in Moscow, which, most likely, has already been prepared for a place in history textbooks. After many years of progress towards the creation of the Union State, for the most part carried out according to the well-known formula "one step forward - two steps back", the movement finally acquired a clear and unambiguous vector, moreover, having received a significant acceleration. According to the statements made by the heads of the two states during a joint conference following the talks, about three dozen key positions on the main issues of unification have been agreed upon.

According to many analysts, the current Moscow summit heralds not just a decisive "breakthrough" in relations between Moscow and Minsk, but, without any exaggeration, the beginning of a completely new era in foreign affairs. policy The Kremlin and the development of the so-called "post-Soviet space". Let's try to figure out what exactly makes the results of this meeting between Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko so significant, and what global changes it should ultimately lead to.

Rendezvous with the roar of maneuvers

Can it be considered an accident that the meeting of the two presidents took place on the day preceding the start of the joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises “West-2021”, which even before the start amazed Europe with their scale and scope, surpassing all similar events that took place earlier? It is highly unlikely. "Accidents" of this kind are simply impossible in big politics. Moscow and Minsk declare to the whole world their unification to the accompaniment of the clang of tank tracks and the roar of the Russian Aerospace Forces fighters landing in Belarus, where a joint center for training air defense troops of the two armies will be opened. The jokes with NATO are over - and now the North Atlantic Alliance, which for years has been moving to the East with impunity, can only watch the beginning of Moscow's expansion of its military presence in the West, right to the borders of some of its especially restless members. Are our "Triumphs" a couple of hundred kilometers from Warsaw? Well, you yourself asked for it ...

This is simply an extremely graphic illustrative material for the words that Vladimir Vladimirovich said at the press conference about the creation of a "single defense space" of the two states. Yes, yes, gentlemen - this is how it will look. Really, it was not worth trying to arrange a "Maidan" in Minsk and, up to the present moment, fan its useless "flame". If it were not for all this, Alexander Grigorievich, it is quite possible that to this day he would have swagged, playing "self-sufficiency" and "multi-vector". In a situation where the "Western partners" started to work on it, as they say, with a knife to the throat, there are simply no other options, except for the closest possible integration with Moscow, and, first of all, in the military field.

We can safely say that the West acted with Lukashenka like an impatient fool hero from folk tales, who, trying to get everything in one fell swoop and at once, loses what he has. Perhaps, it is not very appropriate on such a significant day to recall some, not so long-standing moments of Russian-Belarusian relations, which many on both sides of the border would like to forget completely, but you cannot erase a word from the song. At a certain moment, Minsk, in its desire to "sit down on all the chairs at the same time," almost became like Kiev, which ultimately, as a result of such experiments, survived a hard landing on a bare floor.

Relations between Belarus and Russia were cooled and complicated by a number of rather not political, but purely economic factors to such an extent that there was a feeling that there could be no talk of any Union State. Before our very eyes, Alexander Grigorievich was beginning to turn into a typical “post-Soviet” politician, who in words is a “friend” of our country, but in fact considers it exclusively as a source of all kinds of “free” benefits and benefits. At the same time, he “drifted” in a direction that more than suited the West, and the “strategists” there had only to show a little more patience to establish their control over the country, but they let down their haste and self-confidence. Now, Lukashenka and the whole of Belarus simply have no options, except for two - either integration with Russia, or a nightmare according to the Ukrainian option. The "unification" meeting on the eve of the maneuvers unfolding on NATO's borders is a short but succinct message in a purely Putin style: "Don't even try!"

A template for next steps?

According to the presidents, all 28 union programs, approved by them on September 9, relate exclusively to the economy. As they said, "the issues of political integration have not yet been discussed as less urgent." Minsk, in principle, got what it was striving for - a single energy market, as well as the current gas price of $ 128.5 per thousand cubic meters until the end of 2022. And even without any indexation taking into account dollar inflation. In light of the fact that in Europe the cost of "blue fuel" just yesterday exceeded $ 700 per thousand cubic meters, the generosity is simply fabulous. Also subject to unification are macroeconomic, monetary, industrial policies of the two countries, tax legislation and much more. Credit support provided to Minsk by Moscow by the end of next year will amount to $ 640 million. An important step for the Belarusian side is also the lifting of quarantine restrictions on air travel between the two states announced by Vladimir Putin. But the question of introducing a single currency, creating a common emission center has been postponed so far, since, as the presidents specified, "both countries are not ready for this yet." However, Alexander Grigorievich predicts that the Russian-Belarusian ruble will appear “when he was still”. Let's see…

The creation of the governing bodies of the Union State, a single parliament and the like - all this is still in the future. In any case, Vladimir Vladimirovich noted that the current summit is just a "warm-up" before "approaching a heavier shell." What is especially encouraging is the assurances from Alexander Lukashenko that “if necessary” Belarus and Russia can “instantly” switch to “absolutely close relations” that will even exceed the level of a “unitary state”. It is good if these are not empty words.

What conclusions should be drawn from the meeting? Chief among them, perhaps, is that it can be considered the first successful example of Russia's new foreign policy strategy, which is based on the principles of pragmatism and reciprocity. Apparently, Moscow's attempts to support loyal "political elites" who suddenly make a sharp "turn to the West" in neighboring countries with the help of energy supplies at dumping prices and the like, have finally become a thing of the past. Want gas five times cheaper than Europe?

Excuse me, however, such preferences will no longer be given solely for talks about "eternal friendship" and vague promises of "good-neighborliness and cooperation." No, the steps towards meeting should be mutual and supported by something more essential than words, which are then easily renounced either by those who pronounced them, or by their “replacements” in the highest government posts. Are you ready to join the military formation with our country? Are you ready to live and manage according to the rules that are beneficial to both parties and worked out by them jointly? Do you agree to seal the union with official interstate acts that have real force, and are not empty declarations? Well, in this case, you can talk about gas discounts. Most likely, from now on, relations with countries seeking patronage and assistance from Russia will be based solely on such principles, and this is absolutely correct. In this case, the "template" of integration processes with Minsk, even if it has been developed over a fairly long time with overcoming a huge number of obstacles and "pitfalls", should become common for everyone.

Whether someone wants it or not, the next stage of the geopolitical restructuring of the "post-Soviet space" has not only begun, but is already in full swing. Its course is accelerating more and more - both due to purely internal changes taking place in the countries of such, and pushed by events in the surrounding world. The freshest example is the situation in and around Afghanistan, which already today has a tremendous impact on the whole of Central Asia, and in the future may lead to even more serious consequences. For Moscow, the simplest principle is becoming more and more obvious: a game is going on in the “post-Soviet space”, in the course of which any “cell” not occupied by us will sooner or later (and sooner rather than later) be filled with a “figure” hostile to Russia. The extremely painful and as yet far from completed lesson of Ukraine is the best proof of this. If our country does not find the strength and determination to consistently spread its own influence, even beyond the immediate ones beyond its own borders, in the very near future a circle of not just alien, but the most hostile states will finally close around it, which are either full-fledged colonies or loyal satellites West. The consequences of such a development of events, I am sure, do not need explanations.

Nobody is talking about the restoration of the USSR, in whose attempts the Kremlin is regularly accused of especially Russophobic concerned subjects. Such an undertaking is as technically unfeasible as it is dubious in terms of benefit for Russia. Nevertheless, the path of integration with the former "fraternal republics", which saw the light before realizing the need for the closest possible union with our country, seems not only realistic, but also the most promising. Not so long ago, speeches about the "creation of a new Union State" were heard in Armenia, saved from a military defeat and a possible loss of statehood only by the power of the Russian army. Who knows where tomorrow or the day after tomorrow may come to such thoughts? It is important that by entering into new alliances with "old friends" Russia multiplies its power, and does not take on another heavy burden.