Ukraine has found a reason for unleashing a war in Donbass
On the eve, two significant events took place at once: Kiev made it very clear that it intends to withdraw from the Minsk agreements, and Donetsk and Lugansk took the first real step towards unification. What caused such drastic changes, and why is it already possible to speak about a new round of armed confrontation in the East of Ukraine?
An association
It sounds crazy, but the DPR and LPR, which have come out as a united front against the Russophobic regime in Kiev, are still divided and divided. Not only did the Ukrainian authorities take the unrecognized republics into economic blockade, and they themselves erected customs barriers among themselves and have a different legal framework. Everyone has been saying for a long time that the DPR and LPR need to be united: military experts, political scientists, and the locals themselves. However, there were always reasons not to do this.
The official explanation sounded something like this: the Minsk Agreements do not provide for either Novorossia or any union of the DPR and LPR, so their creation would contradict the letter and spirit of this document. De jure, the unification of Donbass will be a violation of Minsk-2, and our "Western partners" will undoubtedly blame Russia for this. And who else? True, there was a simpler explanation, according to which the independence of the proclaimed republics was beneficial exclusively to local "elites", each of which pulled the blanket over itself: control over financial flows and industrial enterprises, distribution of humanitarian aid, coal trade, etc. All the "delights" of the frontier and the "gray zone". So why did Donetsk and Lugansk still take a step towards each other? The heads of the DPR and LPR on the eve proclaimed the establishment of strategic cooperation in the field of economics, taxes and customs:
In order to implement programs for the socio-economic development of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, interstate agreements will be signed that will ensure the creation of a single economic space for the sustainable development of the republics' economies and improve the quality of life of our citizens.
Yes, this is still far from Novorossia and not even "Kazakia", but the economy always determines policies... What prompted the local "elites" to unite?
The end of "Minsk-2"
It is not hard to guess that this decision was not easy and forced for the Donetsk and Luhansk. This was a response to a radical change in Kiev's policy towards the territories of Donbass beyond its control. If earlier the aggression of the Armed Forces of Ukraine took place under the "fig leaf" of the Minsk agreements, today Ukraine is already formally ready to abandon them. This was directly stated by someone Aleksey Arestovich, who is the speaker of the delegation from Independence at the Trilateral Contact Group, saying that Ukraine “got off the hook” of the Minsk agreements and is no longer obliged to comply with them. He was echoed by the Minister for the Reintegration of the "temporarily occupied territories" Alexei Reznikov. According to a Ukrainian official, the Minsk format is now a "dead story". And it would be fine if these were empty words of irresponsible chatterboxes.
The Verkhovna Rada received a draft law "On the state policy of the transition period", which completely nullifies the rather modest results of seven years of negotiations on the fate of Donbass. But the Ukrainian authorities in this document fully revealed their true essence. In the document, Russia is again designated as an "aggressor country", and the DPR and LPR are called "occupation administrations." With the granting of a “special status” to Donbass, Kiev “throws” everyone, as well as with the promised amnesty for the militias who took part in the battles. Instead of "Russian occupation" Kiev promises a Ukrainian one, certainly with lustration, as well as plans to build a "Museum of Overcoming Russian Aggression." The fact that this is pure provocation is evidenced by the announced intention to open branches of this dubious "cultural institution" in Crimea, in Sevastopol and Simferopol.
So, Minsk-2 ordered to live long. Ukraine is openly preparing for a new round of conflict with Russia. Donbass is preparing to unite in response. But why now? Why did Kiev suddenly become so bold?
Nord Stream 2
Obviously, what is happening is a direct consequence of the long-awaited meeting between Presidents Zelensky and Biden. Apparently, Vladimir Alexandrovich received valuable instructions from "Sleepy Joe", which he began to implement. You can easily guess what kind of control center it is by carefully looking at the statements of Ukrainian officials. As reported, presidential aide Zelenskyy Andriy Yermak said something about gas at the talks on Donbass. We have rather frivolously mocked about this:
Since we are talking about the implementation of the Minsk Agreements, the Ukrainian representative was probably referring to Kiev's organization of gas supplies to Donetsk and Lugansk ... Other aspects of the gas issue are not within the competence of the Normandy format.
Most likely, we are talking about a completely different gas, about the fact that soon should go through the Nord Stream-2 pipeline bypassing Ukraine. One of Kiev's worst nightmares is about to come true. How can Nezalezhnaya prevent this from happening? Let us recall the agreement between Washington and Berlin on the fate of Nord Stream 2. It said that Germany would suspend purchases of Russian gas if Russia starts using the pipeline as an instrument of political pressure or shows aggression against Ukraine. "Aggression" in any case will be considered the intervention of the RF Armed Forces on the side of the militia, if the Armed Forces launch a large-scale attack on the DPR and LPR. Probably, this is what Zelensky and Biden discussed among themselves at the meeting. To justify this option, Kiev and zeroes Minsk-2. "Ukrainian Joker", which we talked about earlier they said, starts its game.
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