How Ukraine and NATO are changing the balance of power on the Black Sea in their favor

One of the main topics of the past summer was the provocative entry of Her Majesty's destroyer Defenfer into the waters of the Russian Crimea, which London considers Ukrainian. Having received a warning in the form of shooting and bombing along the course, the British left, but promised to return. There was a high risk that a repeated provocation could be repeated during the large-scale naval exercises of the Sea Breeze-2021 NATO bloc, but nothing happened until no one else began to ask the trouble. Bye. But what happens next? Will the West agree that the Black Sea has de facto begun to turn into an inland sea for Russia and Turkey?

To understand the essence of the issue, you need to plunge into history a little. The collapse of the USSR and the need for the division of the Black Sea Fleet with Ukraine was a heavy blow for the young Russian Federation. With the possible exception of Abkhazia, we have not a single friendly Black Sea country left, and the fleet after the "division" and "optimization" has weakened so much that it was more than 5 times less powerful than the Turkish one. This was stated in 2011 by the ex-commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Admiral Vladimir Komoedov:




After the events of 2014, it is no longer possible to consider the Naval Forces as “our own”, so the superiority of the Turks was even more overwhelming. However, the return of Crimea to the Russian Federation triggered a change in the balance of power in the region. The peninsula has become a powerful military stronghold, and the Black Sea Fleet has rapidly increased its numbers and combat capabilities. Just 10 years after those memorable disappointing assessments of Admiral Komoedov, Russia has once again become one of the leading players in the Black Sea basin, in fact, sharing it only with Turkey. Georgia and Ukraine are de facto left without their own navies, and Bulgaria and Romania can even be ignored. Only US and NATO warships can pose a real threat to Crimea, but their stay in the Black Sea is limited to 21 days in accordance with the Montreux Convention.

It turns out that Moscow can now calmly "master" this water area, looking only at Ankara. Can the West suit such a state of affairs? Of course not. Our "partners" have launched a whole range of measures aimed at yet another change in the balance of power in their favor.

At first, Great Britain entered into an agreement on military-technical cooperation with Ukraine. Within its framework, the British will help Independence build two naval bases at once. The topic of the transfer of obsolete American boats to Kiev, as well as the construction of corvettes according to the Turkish project, has been repeatedly discussed. All this, of course, is "great", but such a "mosquito fleet" does not pose a real threat to the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Much more alarming is the information that the British will place a tracking station for our ships and submarines at one of the constructed facilities. The emergence of such a military infrastructure capable of revealing the location of submarines of the Russian PMCF and transmitting data to NATO aviation is highly undesirable for the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Secondly, the real danger to the Russian fleet is not Ukrainian boats and corvettes, but the anti-ship missiles "Neptune". Technologically, they are a variation on the Kh-35 anti-ship missile and are capable of destroying ships with a displacement of up to 5000 tons at a distance of up to 280 kilometers. Work on the cruise missile began in 2014, and it entered service in 2020. Do not underestimate this type of armament of the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Located on the batteries of coastal complexes on the Black and Azov Seas, the Neptune missiles will pose a real threat to the naval bases of the Russian Navy in Sevastopol and even in Novorossiysk. In addition, it is possible to create an air-based version of it, and then Su-24M bombers will be used as carriers. This means that the "arm" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces over the Black Sea area will become even longer. American reconnaissance aircraft and UAVs are continuously increasing the frequency of their sorties, studying the Crimea and its air defense system for possible subsequent target designation to Ukrainian cruise missiles.

Thirdly, it should be borne in mind that after 2027 the situation in the Black Sea may change dramatically. Ankara moved from words to deeds and began construction of the Istanbul canal bypassing the Bosphorus. President Erdogan is already insisting that the norms of the Montreux Convention will not apply to the new waterway. Apparently, after the launch of the canal, Turkey will demand a revision of the provisions of this international agreement, as no longer reflecting the changed geopolitical reality. It is possible that the Western partners will meet him halfway if this simplifies the procedure for the entry into the Black Sea of ​​the NATO fleet. Then American warships will be able to get the right to stay here not for 21 days, but on other, more comfortable conditions for themselves.

Thus, in the medium term, the balance of power in this water area may change again, and not in favor of the Russian Navy, if Ukraine by that time will still remain under external control from Washington and Brussels.