Sly Miller: How Gazprom is Leading Europe to Uncontested Choice

14

Europeans enthusiastically cut the branch they are sitting on. On August 19, prices at the Dutch gas hub TTF, after Gazprom announced its plans to pump 5,6 billion cubic meters of gas by the end of 2021 through the Nord Stream 2 launched in October, did not manage to drop from the $ 585 / ts mark on August 505. cubic meters to the level of $ 600 / thousand, as they rushed up again and easily broke through the ceiling of $ 608, stopping at the level of 30 American presidents per thousand cubic meters of gas. This figure was recorded on August XNUMX on the ICE trading floor when trading November futures for the supply of blue fuel from the Dutch gas hub TTF on DAT terms.

Help: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is the world's largest exchange holding and derivatives market operator, a network of exchanges and clearing houses for the financial and commodity markets in the United States, Canada and Europe, where futures contracts for all types of underlying assets are traded - from energy carriers, currencies and dredges. metals to cotton, sugar and other agricultural crops up to frozen orange juice. Its trading floors account for 50% of the world trading volumes in futures contracts for oil, gas, coal and oil products.



The skyrocketing price of raw materials immediately affected the wholesale cost of electricity in the European Union. For example, in Germany it rose to 110 euros per MW. And the reason for this was not at all hurricane Ida, which struck the southern oil and LNG-producing states of America, as stock market analysts have already explained, but the Supreme Land Court of Dusseldorf, by its decision of August 25, quietly sent Nord Stream 2AG under the norms of the Third an energy package that cuts off half of its pipe in favor of a non-existent alternative supplier, forcing Nord Stream 2AG to provide part of its transportation capacity to third legal entities who will simply buy gas from Nord Stream 2AG and sell it to European consumers at their own margin markup, thus increasing the price it for the end user. A decision on its own greed, bordering on stupidity, but European bureaucrats are even ready to strangle themselves if it does harm to the Russian Federation.

In other words, the EU stupidly wanted its share of the "gas pie", forbidding Gazprom itself to sell its own gas supplied through its own pipe, introducing a number of gasket firms into the energy sales scheme, designed to take half of the end consumers from the Russian giant. As a result, Gazprom will have to cooperate with these companies, even if this entails the creation of additional costs and, as a result, an unjustified increase in prices for the end consumer. The intention of EU officials is quite understandable, in the event of complaints from EU citizens about inflated tariffs, they will always be able to refer to the Russian side - they say, gas prices are rising because the Russians want too much. You can always tactfully keep silent about your own influence on the growth of tariffs, hiding the thirst for profit on your own citizens behind strict observance of the letter of the law.

For Gazprom, the worse the better


Miller looks at all this with ill-concealed sarcasm, counting the unexpected profits that have unexpectedly fallen on his department. The gas giant's net profit in the first half of 2021 under IFRS amounted to 995 billion rubles, which is 22 times more than in 2020, when quarantine measures against the COVID pandemic led to a decrease in demand and, as a result, to a drop in energy prices. Let me remind you that Gazprom's budget for 2021 was drawn up on the basis of gas prices at $ 171 / tsd. cubes, and it has already exceeded 600. Come on, guys, to spite Miller, freeze the fish soup! There is not long to wait until winter, and your storage facilities are half empty (more precisely, they are only 63% full). Winter will come, how will you bask? By the decisions of the Düsseldorf State Court?

Exchange analysts explaining the sudden rise in prices for blue fuel by the most powerful hurricane Ida in the last 100 years, which hit long-suffering Texas and Louisiana, where 98% of American LNG is produced, are sinning against the truth. What prevented the American, as well as the Qatari LNG, before this terrible hurricane from supplying its LNG to Europe, languishing without gas? The answer is simple to the point of banality - elementary greed! The point is that both then and now the price of blue fuel in the premium markets of Southeast Asia (Southeast Asia) was higher than European ones by $ 50-70 per thousand cubic meters. The bourgeois capitalists will hang themselves for an extra cent, and here the bill went to tens and hundreds of millions of dollars. As a result, over the past 8 months, LNG supplies to Europe have decreased by more than 17 billion cubic meters. At the same time, PJSC Gazprom fulfilled its contractual obligations and even exceeded it.

The PJSC Board recently reported on the results of the first 7 months of this year. During this period, the monopolist pumped 115 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe (including Turkey), which is 23% more than in the same period last year (remember, for a moment, that the maximum volume of gas pumped to the EU was reached in 2018 and 2019. when this figure hovered around 200 billion cubic meters). So this year Gazprom is following a record schedule and risks setting a record for its fuel sales to European consumers. Sales growth on the southern route through the Turkish and Balkan streams is impressive - to Romania it grew by 318%, to Turkey by 204%, to Serbia by 118%. And from October 1, Hungary will also join them, for it turned out to be cheaper to receive blue fuel through Turkey than to pump it directly through Ukraine. You can imagine what tariffs for pumping gas from non-brothers, if the extra 2,5 thousand km seemed like flowers to the Hungarians. Although it would be a sin for non-brothers to complain, Gazprom pumped 22 billion cubic meters of gas through their pipe in the first half of this year (against the contract value of 40 billion / year), which is 9% more than the contractual amount. Neither Europeans nor non-brothers have anything to cover - the contract stipulates 40 billion cubic meters of gas per year (or 109 million per day) - here you go, get it! Even with a surplus. What complaints can there be against Miller?

Meanwhile, Gazprom, trying to slip out of the Third Energy Package, in July this year applied to the German Federal Grid Agency to certify Nord Stream 2AG as an "independent transport network operator." The regulator has 4 months to check the application. A month has already passed. I do not exclude that the Federal Grid Agency of the Federal Republic of Germany may even agree with the arguments of Gazprom and grant NS-2AG a similar status, but the officials of the European Commission will definitely not agree to this and they will definitely not let this pass (not for that they get their salaries!). The EC cannot officially prohibit certification, since the German Federal Network Agency is not directly subordinate to them, but should only take into account their opinion (or maybe not). However, Brussels has the right to file a lawsuit against Germany for violations of the agreement if the German regulator deviates too much from the requirements of the EC. The European Commission believes that this issue cannot be resolved without the sale of the joint venture-2. But the sale to third parties, if it does come to this, will take more than one or two months (at best, six months), and winter is not far off. How is Europe going to go through it, having half-empty underground storage facilities? How is she going to smooth out consumption peaks, I don't know? And nobody knows! God forbid that there will be only one way out - to crawl towards Gazprom. This is what the cunning Miller is trying to achieve.

Sly Miller


With a sly sly, not washing, so by rolling, he brings the EU to a cruel, but uncontested choice - without launching the SP-2 to its fullest, you, gentlemen Europeans, risk freezing this winter. Your storages are half-empty, you can't raise your hand at pumping them now at a scrap price, great, in October we will pump them from wheels in real time through all existing gas pipelines, including, of course, SP-2. If you want to apply the rules of the Third Energy Package to it, leave one pipe without gas (supposedly for an alternative supplier, which does not exist in nature), if you please, only then don’t excuse me - you’ll freeze! And the winter will be, oh, how cold. Already in this hot summer it can be seen. After October 15, Gazprom will just free up additional capacities that are now going to pump its own UGS facilities, so it will fill SP-2 with them.

If the SP-2 is not 100% commissioned, then Europe may face very high gas prices in winter and the inability to quickly cover demand peaks, since the reserves in the UGS will remain low. This is Miller's cunning plan. If you do not want to freeze this winter, think with your head, and not with your back seat, like gentlemen Ukrainians. Based on the volume declared by Gazprom of 5,6 billion cubic meters, the company is counting so far only on one line of Nord Stream 2, through which it plans to pump 78 million cubic meters of gas per day. Will this volume be enough to warm Europe and cover the peaks of consumption, Europeans will see very soon.
Our news channels

Subscribe and stay up to date with the latest news and the most important events of the day.

14 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. -15
    3 September 2021 08: 47
    Ah, endless peremogi. Prices are rising, Gazprom has either record sales, then record non-sales, then LNG to Europe, then to Asia ... then record heat, then freeze, then storage facilities are empty, then overflowing ...

    How much did Gazprom's shares go up? Who has them? did you have time to cook it?
    1. +7
      3 September 2021 18: 26
      So far, I see only the record holder for cons, do you collect or monetize them?
      1. -8
        3 September 2021 18: 34
        You see. I'm happy for you.
        You write just to annoy

        You do not answer questions, as you do now,

        And the minuses, pluses are like toys for children. A beautiful bright toy - that's a plus ...
        Nobody likes the truth ... cons
        I do not usually put
        1. +7
          3 September 2021 19: 03
          Gazprom is a state-owned company, the state is welded on it at the expense of taxes and state duties, this is 11 times higher than the income of shareholders of PJSC Gazprom. It suits me perfectly
          Special fo yu: Martsinkevich specially for you from 4:40 min

          1. -7
            3 September 2021 20: 37
            1) "Gazprom is a state company, the state is welded on it at the expense of taxes and state duties," is well known.
            2) "this is 11 times higher than the income of PJSC Gazprom shareholders."
            this makes me happy. Didn't check.
            3) "It suits me quite well" also pleases.
            Although you do not defiantly answer simple questions in the commentary.
            And on the site there was a not so unambiguous article about income from SP2. I didn’t check her figures either, but it was on this site.
            4) "Special" look, it is long. But at least they began to respond concretely and constructively.
          2. -2
            4 September 2021 20: 13
            Special fo yu Thank you for the video, good, but boring. To bookmarks

            And a plus sign, since you collect.
      2. The comment was deleted.
    2. +2
      3 September 2021 23: 31
      This year, after the covid sales, they have already doubled, and good divas are also expected this year.
      1. -2
        4 September 2021 20: 10
        Here! A real answer to a real question.
        It turns out that no one has any Gazprom shares.

        And the plus signs, minus signs - just like small children.
        Now I will add to collectors for everyone, do not mind
  2. -6
    3 September 2021 08: 47
    On the tricky butt, there is always a left-handed bolt.
    1. The comment was deleted.
  3. +3
    3 September 2021 09: 29
    And we have gas in Siberia - this time!
    There is also a gas pipeline, here ...
  4. +2
    4 September 2021 06: 37
    Miller is not vindictive. Just a good memory. Will play for the damaged nerves.
  5. +2
    4 September 2021 15: 49
    all gas pipelines would be sent for repairs for a month, then both Slovak gas and endless gas carriers from the usa would have shown independence from Gazprom
  6. 0
    5 September 2021 13: 53
    A few comments on the publication.
    1.Under the existing contract between Gazprom and Naftogaz, Russia can pump ZERO cubic meters of gas through the Ukrainian GTS, but it will still have to pay at the level of 40 billion cubic meters. Moreover, transport prices are tied to the gas price.
    2. Everyone who is more or less aware of the situation that has arisen in connection with the decision of the Dusseldorf court understands that this is a dead end. On the one hand, the EU will not allow violation of the 4th energy package and will oblige Gazprom to sell the gas pipeline, while the Kremlin, of course, will not sell it.
    3. The fact that US and Qatari LNG are passing by Europe due to higher prices in Asia is not true. Everything is much simpler: there are almost no gas terminals in Europe.
    4. In this situation, the question arises, who, in reality, saws the branch on which he sits? A Europe that is quite capable of building terminals very quickly and getting rid of Russian blackmail forever? Or Russia, selling to Europe 60% of its gas and losing such a buyer ?! Indeed, regardless of the price, there is no gas deficit in the world.
    5. Loss of gas transportation revenues of $ 1,5 billion per year are not critical for Ukraine. Moreover, the demand for gas will decline and Ukraine needs to prepare for this. And what are the prospects for Russia, with its resource-based economy? They are quite unsightly.
    Let's wait for the elections in the FRG, which can radically change the entire alignment of forces.
  7. -1
    9 September 2021 14: 51
    how GAZPROM let Europe down
    to the choice of heavy:
    1) freeze the white ass
    2) sing a funny song
    but if it's serious -
    it's impossible to live without gas!