Pearl Harbor 2.0: Will the Russian Pacific Fleet Resist Japanese Attack?
The Japanese naval squadron "Izumo" type destroyer in the foreground and the US Navy aircraft carrier in the background
Probably our main problem in the eastern direction is the complicated relations with Japan. Tokyo refuses to recognize the sovereignty of the Russian Federation over the Kuril Islands, and the idea of returning the "northern territory" has become national in the Land of the Rising Sun. After a number of changes were made to the Constitution of the Russian Federation in 2020, the transfer of the Kuriles legally became impossible, and therefore, in an amicable way, this issue of principle for the Japanese can no longer be resolved. There are only "bad" options, and the main intrigue is whether Tokyo will ever decide on "Pearl Harbor 2.0"?
History shows that the Japanese are capable of daring and decisive moves, and the level of militarization of the mood of society in the Land of the Rising Sun is constantly growing. Perhaps only the presence of a nuclear arsenal in Russia is a deterrent, but one should be aware that, according to the unwritten rules of international relations, its use is taboo. Nuclear weapons (NW) are something that you can have as a threat to potential aggressors, but really not be used. A country that has decided to launch a nuclear strike against another country in the 21st century, if it is, of course, not the “hegemon” himself, will immediately be turned into an outcast by all at the suggestion of the “civilized” Western community. In general, nuclear weapons are good, but in and of themselves it is not a panacea. Our country should be able to defeat any aggressor in a conventional way, without resorting to the "nuclear baton". Alas, in the Far East, this is not very good. The naval self-defense forces of Japan are many times superior in combat capabilities to the Pacific Fleet of the Russian Federation, and this weakness is a serious provoking factor.
Pearl Harbor 2.0
In the Axis countries that lost World War II, it is not customary to publicly discuss the possibility of revising its results. However, in Japan, the idea of returning the Kuriles at any cost reached such intensity and ferocity that even career diplomats began to speak out on this topic. For example, in an article on the Newsweek Japan portal, professional political scientist Akio Kawatao wrote the following verbatim:
In order for the Russian authorities to realize the importance of solving the territorial problem, the Japanese government must demonstrate its readiness and ability to block the Soy (La Perouse) and Tsugaru (Sangar) Strait, which are the main supply routes between the mainland of Russia and the four "northern islands."
In other words, "Pearl Harbor 2.0" may consist of a naval blockade of the Kuril Islands by the Japanese fleet, followed by a landing on them. And, unfortunately, we have to admit that Tokyo has all the capabilities to conduct such a military operation. Let's compare the forces at the disposal of the parties that can be involved in an armed conflict over the "northern territories".
On the sea
Let's face it, with regard to surface forces, we have nothing to boast about in the Pacific Ocean. The flagship of the fleet is the Project 1164 Varyag missile cruiser. He is in charge of 1 Project 956 Sarych destroyer, 1 Project 1155 frigate (former BOD) and 3 large anti-submarine ships of Project 1155. Alas, as far as large ships in the far sea zone are concerned, this is probably all of them, and they are quite old. There are also 4 corvettes of projects 20380 and 20385, 4 small missile ships (MRK) of project 1234 and 8 small anti-submarine ships, plus 4 large landing ships that may be needed when trying to return the occupied Kuril Islands back. There is still a different "trifle", but it will not make the weather, as well as submarines (SSGN, PLAB and diesel-electric submarines). And this is the Pacific Fleet, the second most powerful in the Russian Navy!
The potential adversary, alas, looks much more convincing. The Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Forces have 4 helicopter carriers, 8 URO destroyers (2 more are transferred to training), 29 destroyers (1 transferred to training), 6 frigates and 21 submarines (2 more training). Unfortunately, this is not all. In addition, Japan has another navy, formally called the Coast Guard. As of 2011, it consisted of 45 large, 39 medium and 34 small patrol ships, up to 130 service and auxiliary vessels that can be involved in the transfer of troops to the Kuril Islands. The Coast Guard also includes: 5 fire boats, 25 aircraft and 46 helicopters, over 220 patrol boats, 4 fire boats and 13 hydrographic vessels.
This is more than enough to carry out a naval blockade and the subsequent seizure of the Kuril Islands. The Japanese have a huge navy with a modern air defense system, and also significantly exceed our Pacific in the number of anti-ship and anti-submarine missiles.
In the air
Alas, the Japanese will certainly dominate the sky. Surface ships with missiles are good, but there is nothing worse at sea than aviation. The Anglo-Saxons are well aware of this, who are investing billions in the construction of aircraft carriers, which for some reason certain individuals in our country consider "useless vessels" and "easy targets." Japan, as a country that lost the Second World War, had a lot of restrictions on the development of its fleet, but managed to skillfully bypass them.
Tokyo built two 22DDH-class helicopter carriers with a total displacement of 27 tons. At the first glance at the Izumo and Gaku, it became clear that we were dealing with light aircraft carriers with a solid deck along the entire hull, called "helicopter destroyers" so as not to irritate neighboring countries. In 2017, the Japanese government announced plans to convert them into aircraft carriers by deploying fifth-generation American F-35B fighters. Structurally, they were adapted for this from the very beginning, it remains only to protect the deck with a heat-resistant coating and install a springboard on the bow. And so, at the head of the huge Japanese navy, two light aircraft carriers with an air wing of 20 SKPPV aircraft on each stand.
But that's not all. Do not forget about the two previous-generation Hyuga helicopter carriers. They are smaller, their total displacement is only 18 thousand tons, but structurally they are close to the British Invincible-class aircraft carriers or the Italian aircraft-carrying cruiser Garibaldi. Instead of anti-submarine helicopters, both Japanese ships, after modernization, will be able to take on board 8-10 F-35B fighters each.
Taken together, this means one thing: the Japanese will reign supreme in the air, at sea and under water. The Far East is so far, that you cannot quickly transfer significant reinforcements there. If Tokyo promptly cuts this military operation, a new geopolitical reality will ensue.
What to do?
But let's not say goodbye to the Kuriles ahead of time. The most negative scenario does not have to be realized, and it is in our power to make sure that this never happens.
At first, it is worth supporting the initiative of the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu on the construction of new cities in Siberia and the Far East, the transfer of production and infrastructure there, including the military. The more settled and economically developed these regions, remote from Central Russia, are, the less chances there will be that they can somehow “move away”.
SecondlyThe Pacific Fleet definitely needs strengthening. Probably, after the completion of the planned modernization, it is here that the Peter the Great TARK should be sent as a new flagship, and the Admiral Nakhimov should be left to the Severomors. It is possible that in conjunction with "Peter" it is worth redeploying our only aircraft-carrying cruiser "Admiral Kuznetsov" with carrier-based aircraft. There, to the Pacific Ocean, it would be expedient to send a new universal amphibious assault ship (UDC) of the two that are currently being built in Kerch. It will be possible to place helicopters, anti-submarine and attack helicopters. As they are launched, the newest project 22350 and 22350M multipurpose frigates will be distributed across the Northern and Pacific fleets. This will significantly increase their combat effectiveness and stability.
Thirdly, already now it is worth thinking hard about the program of building new aircraft carriers to replace the aging Admiral Kuznetsov. For modern war at sea, carrier-based aircraft are needed, this is a fact. Aircraft carriers need at least 2 for each of our ocean fleets. It might be worth doing the following. In Kerch, after the launch of both UDCs, two light aircraft carriers with a displacement of 40-45 thousand tons can be laid. If they are built according to the traditional scheme, they will be able to carry 20-30 aircraft on board. If you try a non-standard semi-catamaran scheme, then with such a modest displacement they will be able to accommodate a very impressive wing of up to 40 aircraft. The power plant can be supplied to the GTU, and several cells of universal launchers can be installed on ships in order to classify them as aircraft-carrying cruisers. This will make it easier to resolve the issue with the passage of the Turkish straits.
It is possible to start construction in Kerch at the turn of 2027-2028 after the completion of work on the UDC. Distribute one such light aircraft carrier to the Northern and Pacific fleets, where they will act as escorts. The second series of two multipurpose nuclear attack aircraft carriers with a displacement of 60-70 thousand tons may be laid down at Sevmash after the completion of the nuclear submarine construction program at the end of this decade. As a basis, it is advisable to use the modernized project of the Soviet ATAVRK "Ulyanovsk".
If you go to the Pacific Ocean in 15-20 years, then the Russian fleet, having in the TARK of the Orlan project, a UDC with a dozen helicopters on board and a couple of aircraft carriers with a hundred aircraft, as well as modern multipurpose frigates of the 22350 and 22350M projects, will be able to to restrain any revanchist sentiments of the Japanese. And it will not cost that fantastic money. What's the alternative? Pearl Harbor 2.0?
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