Echo of Afghanistan. Why does Ukraine call the American military
In anticipation of a meeting between Presidents Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev, a resonant proposal was made by the ex-Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Pavel Klimkin to invite American troops to the country as the most reliable guarantor of security. In Russia, his statement was naturally ridiculed, but is it worth treating such proposals so lightly?
The idea that Ukraine could become a NATO military foothold against Russia has been heard since 2014, but the parties concerned interpret it differently. Brussels needs Square, but only as a buffer between itself and Moscow. It will never be admitted to the European Union, leaving it to be kept within the framework of the “Euroassociation” forever. Also, no one in the North Atlantic Alliance needs it either, since no one in the EU seriously intends to give Kiev any security guarantees and promise to fight against Russia. The most the West is ready for is the status of a NATO partner. But now in Nezalezhnaya they started talking about the need to join this military bloc, and there are hysterical notes in the statements. Why would you?
Echo of Afghanistan
Of course, the events at the Kabul airport made an indelible impression on the so-called “Ukrainian elite”. Who among the Afghan collaborators could have imagined that Uncle Sam would really abandon his local accomplices and begin withdrawing troops 20 years after the start of the occupation of the country? Yes, no one, although talk about such a possibility began a long time ago. Supporters of the pro-Western authorities had plenty of time to calmly evacuate, but the majority pulled to the last, clearly not believing in what was happening. As a result, they had to fly away, crammed into planes like herring in a barrel, and some even tried to do it, clinging to the outside of the landing gear with a lethal outcome.
Of course, all of us immediately began to intimidate the Ukrainian regime with the idea that something like this could happen again somewhere in Borispol. And there they heard. Former Foreign Minister of Ukraine Pavel Klimkin directly linked the Kabul events with the need to bring in US troops:
Look at Afghanistan, which had such a status. There is no need to get involved in any things other than real partnership and alliance with our friends.
Yes, in Kiev everyone saw, heard and were frightened, and frightened people are capable of a lot. Does this mean that Ukrainian collaborators are ready to let in the American military? Quite possible.
Various experts point to the Ukrainian Constitution, which directly prohibits the deployment of foreign military bases and military contingents in Independent. Alas, this will not be any real obstacle for anyone. The basic law can be rewritten at any time, should we not understand this? And even without rewriting the Constitution, the foreign military and the infrastructure of the NATO bloc are quietly on the territory of Independent - in Western Ukraine, in Ochakov, in Odessa - and no one can prevent them from doing so. Therefore, we can talk specifically about the legalization and expansion of the military presence of the North Atlantic Alliance. So, let's imagine in what form this can happen.
Fort Biden?
The most important fear of the Ukrainian puppet authorities is that Moscow will finally stop playing with them and, in response to yet another provocation against the DPR and LPR, carry out a large-scale counteroffensive, reaching the Dnieper, or even the border with Poland. Let's be realistic: if Russia starts to fight in earnest, then "the strongest army in Europe" will not be able to resist it. Yes, someone from the Armed Forces of Ukraine will heroically resist to death, but the majority of Ukrainian soldiers would prefer to desert, and they will do the right thing, by the way. In this scenario, if events develop very quickly, there is every chance of seeing a massive exodus of local collaborators according to the "Kabul scheme". In Kiev, such prospects are clearly freaked out, which is clearly seen from the statement of Pavel Klimkin:
Among the effective things is a security agreement with the United States, with real guarantees, these are weapons and this is, of course, the gradual deployment of American units and American infrastructure.
Presumably, in the dreams of Ukrainian pseudo-patriots, American troops should be stationed somewhere on the border with Donbass, or even with Russia, in order to personally stop the "hordes" advancing from the east. It is clear that no one in the Pentagon will go for such a thing, why would. Then the Ukrainian minimum program may look like the deployment of an American military base with a tank division similar to Fort Trump in Poland, somewhere near Kiev, in order to be able to quickly repel a blow from the Russian Defense Ministry. Why does Kiev need it, of course, but does Washington need it?
The deployment of elements of the American missile defense system on the territory of Ukraine seems much more likely. As you know, the ground-based version of the Aegis can be re-equipped within one day from anti-aircraft interceptor missiles to Tomahawk cruise missiles, including nuclear warheads. This is already very serious. If from the territory of Poland "Tomahawks" can get to the Urals, then somewhere from near Kharkov or Sumy they will block half of our country. The Russian Defense Ministry will have to radically rebuild its entire missile defense system, which is very difficult, expensive and does not provide 100% security guarantees in the event of a preemptive strike against us.
The Americans will definitely not fight for Ukraine by transferring troops there, they are not interested in it at all. But under the pretext of providing antimissile defense, it is easy to deploy elements of a dual-use missile defense system in eastern Ukraine.
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