"The Greatest Military Humiliation in US History." How Russia should act in Afghanistan now

Against the backdrop of dramatic scenes accompanying the flight of US and allied forces from Afghanistan, the question of the future is becoming more and more urgent. Namely: which countries will be able to establish contact with the Taliban, who, apparently, will represent the power of official Kabul in the coming years. And, of course, for Russia, given that the republics of Central Asia border on Afghanistan, including Tajikistan, which is a member of the CSTO, it is especially important not to let the situation go.

Paradoxically, European partners seem to be more interested in Russia's actions in the region than in their own problems associated with the next imminent migration crisis and the evacuation of their citizens in conditions close to a humanitarian catastrophe.



Thus, according to a joint statement issued in mid-August by the leaders of the European Parliament, “The European Union needs to develop a new strategy for Afghanistan and the entire region, taking into account the new circumstances due to the fact that Russia and China may quickly try to fill political vacuum".

In addition to the European Parliament, chief European diplomat Josep Borrell also considered it necessary to express his concern:


Such rhetoric emanating from Brussels, if not something sensational, given the level of bilateral relations, looks at least inappropriate. Russia is a sovereign state that has the right to independently determine its foreign policy, and such statements by EU leaders look more like a manifestation of helplessness and a desire to send a distress signal to overseas curators than something constructive.

However, there are already enough problems on the other side of the Atlantic, connected with Afghanistan, so that the official Washington is now clearly not up to the Brussels idle talk. Today, not only ideological opponents of Biden - Republicans, but also his own democratic party members increasingly characterize the current state of affairs as a "catastrophic failure" of both the American army and American diplomacy.

The 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump, commented on the situation:


Of course, being the main opponent of Joe Biden on the American political Olympus, Trump is hardly impartial, but in fact, given the length of the American mission and the trillions of expenses incurred by the Pentagon, it is difficult to characterize the "Afghan situation" more precisely.

Afghan resources

The high-profile statements emanating from the EU have very real reasons: greed, envy and regret about missed opportunities. Afghanistan, recognized as one of the poorest economies in the world, is in fact not deprived of minerals that would be extremely interesting for European business.

For example, in 2010, the US Geological Survey and the Pentagon announced that, according to the most conservative estimates, Afghanistan has a trillion US dollars in mineral resources. Everything is there: millions of tons of copper, billions of tons of iron ore, bauxite, gold, marble and many rare earth metals. Including lithium, the Afghani deposits of which are among the largest in the world.

By the way, by a strange coincidence, given the gradual transition to zero CO2021 emissions announced in 2 by the EU, it is lithium that will be extremely necessary for European companies to produce batteries for electric vehicles.

The politics of realism

Returning to what policy towards Afghanistan is most beneficial to Russia, the following should be noted. The fact that Russia does not close its diplomatic mission and does not evacuate its employees, unlike the convulsively scattering diplomatic missions of Western countries, in itself demonstrates the firmness of Russian positions in the region. In addition, now an important advantage of Russia is the fact that it continues to look at things realistically, being guided in its actions solely by the principles of pragmatism.

For example, according to Russian Ambassador to Afghanistan Dmitry Zhirnov, "There is no alternative to the Taliban, it is reality in every sense, it is a reality that controls not only the capital, but the entire country." He also expressed the opinion that the Taliban (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) is interested in the economic development of the country, including in the implementation of infrastructure projects in the field of transport and energy together with the bordering Central Asian states. In addition, the head of the diplomatic mission separately emphasized the Taliban's openness to the idea of ​​Russian participation in the Afghan the economy, which also includes the development of large-scale natural resources of Afghanistan.

Apparently, the meetings with the Taliban leadership in Moscow nevertheless played a role, and the de facto new Afghan authorities are quite supportive of the idea of ​​Russian-Afghan interaction, which undoubtedly opens up significant opportunities for Russian business.

Russia's global leadership in the field of mining can hardly be questioned, and the Afghan land, rich in natural resources, may well become a convenient platform for mutually beneficial cooperation.

Russia, China and Afghanistan

At the same time, it is important to understand that other major players will also be present on Afghan territory, with whom, of course, they will have to compete, at least in the economic sphere. The interests of the same Celestial Empire, for example, have long stretched towards the Sino-Afghan border. Take, for example, the fact that it is Chinese companies that have since 2008 have the rights to develop the world's largest undeveloped copper deposit, located four dozen kilometers southeast of Kabul.

However, given the high level of Russian-Chinese relations, one should hardly expect any unfriendly actions on the part of Beijing on economic issues. Rather healthy and fair competition. Indeed, against the background of growing contradictions and claims from the collective West, Russia and China are only strengthening bilateral cooperation.

So, on August 23, an official representative of the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a statement criticizing the new anti-Russian sanctions by Washington. And two days later, the opinion of Chinese leader Xi Jinping became known, who noted the need to strengthen the joint Russian-Chinese struggle against interference in the internal affairs of their countries and to further expand the spheres of interstate interaction. In particular, the application of joint efforts aimed at resolving the situation in Afghanistan.

In the end, taking into account the above, the most competent strategy of Russia in the Afghan region looks like a continuation of the course towards a policy of pragmatism with an extremely realistic outlook on things. In fact, if everything is already clear with the American legacy in Afghanistan, then Russia now has every chance not only to strengthen its influence in the region, but also to develop its foreign economic ties through new, including infrastructure, projects on its territory. And it is likely that after decades of devastating American intervention in Afghanistan, peace will finally come.