Why Kiev was early delighted with the decision of the German court on the "Nord Stream-2"

Against the background of the clearly failed summit of the "Crimean Platform", foreign guests who arrived both at this event and to celebrate the anniversary of its independence, and some other not very pleasant events on the foreign policy "front", more than a cool attitude towards the "problems of Ukraine", Kiev finally got a reason for gloating glee.

As such, as it is easy to guess, they perceived the negative decision of the Dusseldorf Supreme Land Court of Germany on the claim of the Nord Stream 2 operator Nord Stream 2 AG on the withdrawal of this gas pipeline from the requirements of the so-called Third EU Energy Package. The refusal to satisfy this completely legitimate demand gave rise to a real flurry of enthusiasm and a new portion of completely delusional ideas in the "nezalezhnoy". However, there is every reason to assert that this joy is, at least, premature, or even completely unfounded. Why? Let's try to figure it out.

"Give us Nord Stream 2!"

The greatest enthusiasm for the decision of the German court, quite expectedly, aroused the head of Naftogaz Ukrainy, Yuriy Vitrenko, who hastened to declare it a “complete failure of Gazprom,” and also, which sounds very intriguing, “some Western politicians and members of governments "who" do not want to live by European rules. " From the lips of a Ukrainian official, such reproaches to the adored "partners" sound very defiant, even taking into account the absence of any mention of specific personalities in them. However, Vitrenko, who only pompously broadcasts about a "new battlefield" where Kiev will wage a desperate struggle "for obeying the rules of all pipelines that connect Russia with Europe", looks rather pale in comparison with one of his colleagues - the head of the LLC "Operator of the Ukrainian gas transportation system" Sergei Makogon, who showed his compatriots a truly unrestrained flight of imagination and the scope of "wishes". This character immediately stated that in the current situation the "office" headed by him can (and even should!) Claim to manage the SP-2 gas pipeline, since it is certainly "an operator completely independent of Russia." How Kiev could achieve the implementation of such phantasmagoric plans, Makogon, of course, does not specify. However, in all seriousness he says that he is simply obliged to “offer his services” to “comply with European norms” regarding the separation of suppliers and operators of transportation of “blue fuel”.

To enhance the sense of the epoch-making "peremogi" Makogon insists that the Dusseldorf court's verdict is "exactly what Ukraine insisted on during the negotiations on the SP-2." This statement, of course, is by no means true. The claims of the “nezalezhnoy” have extended (and are extending) much further and lie, for the most part, in a somewhat different plane.

However, the further, the more obvious it becomes that not only "European partners", in the person of, first of all, Germany, but also the United States are not going to satisfy them. As a matter of fact, the revelations of the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, which sounded after his never-to-be-historic meeting with Angela Merkel, testify to this by slightly more than 100%. Talking about the results of the negotiations, the leader of the "nezalezhnoy" admitted with an extremely discouraged look that he had not heard "any specifics" from Frau Chancellor, despite all his desperate harassment. According to Zelensky, only "the most general things" sounded from the German guest, but "what will Ukraine receive" after the end of the transit contract imposed on Moscow in 2024, who "gives her guarantees" and what these guarantees generally consist of - he is "absolutely did not understand". Happenes…

Perhaps, Kiev could have brought closer to the realization of completely obvious things by a thoughtful analysis of the results of another meeting - the one that took place on August 23 and in which the energy ministers of both the United States and Germany, as well as the most "non-profit" one, took part. It was openly said that the Ukrainian GTS could be alive "not with gas alone." And, for example, hydrogen or ammonia, which "can also be pumped through its pipes." It is possible, but only from where and where? The launch of the production of new types of energy resources in Ukraine itself is not something that is far from the very near future, but in general, rather, something from the field of unscientific fiction. And how much they will be in demand in the same Europe is a very big question. In fact, Western "partners" are now trying to quietly, in a mild form, persuade Kiev, like a violent madman, continuing to demand some kind of "sanctions" for Moscow and "compensation" for itself, to come to terms with the inevitable and stop rattling their nerves with whining and reproaches.

"A purely corporate affair"

In reality, the European Union needs gas. And specifically Russian - with its guaranteed and reliable supplies and, if possible, not too high a price. A small but very visual demonstration arranged by Gazprom to the local consumers, apparently, made the right impression, and in the “national treasure” they changed their anger to mercy, starting to increase their export volumes to the countries of the Old World. Having scooped out almost all European underground gas storage facilities to a historic low of 12.8%, from the Dutch Bergermeer to the German Reden, Jemgum and Katharina, the Russian supplier started filling them again and, moreover, is looking at additional UGS facilities with a total volume of 2 billion cubic meters. We have enough "blue fuel" for everyone - there would be a desire to buy it, and the Europeans clearly have one. "But what about the decision of the court in Dusseldorf?" - you ask? If the Germans are so interested in Nord Stream 2, why are they making such offensive and unfavorable decisions regarding it? Not everything is so simple in this matter as it might seem at first glance and how it was imagined in the "nezalezhnoy".

First, nothing is actually finished yet. The office of Nord Stream 2 AG has already declared its categorical disagreement with the verdict, which they called “discriminatory”, and also made it clear that they intend to appeal against it, including in the European Court. Secondly, nothing catastrophic for RAO Gazprom actually happened. Yes, in accordance with the "gas directive" he cannot use the new pipe absolutely alone and is obliged to provide access to it to "other traders". However, the schizophrenic thought that representatives of Ukraine have even the slightest chance to be among those could visit only the heads of the local “patriotic” officials.

To tell the truth, before shouting "Hurray!" To say that she was restrained is to say nothing. Dmitry Peskov on this occasion dropped only a couple of general phrases, the meaning of which boils down to the fact that everything that is happening is the essence of “a purely corporate affair of Gazprom, which will undoubtedly be dealt with there. At the same time, the presidential press secretary stressed that the SP-2 is, generally speaking, a "pan-European project" in which the residents and authorities of the EU are no less interested than Russia.

Perhaps the whole point here is that the harsh and uncompromising, at first glance, "verdict" of the Dusseldorf judges, as well as the norms of the Third Energy Package underlying it, are certainly not some insurmountable obstacle to the normal operation of the gas pipeline. Can't its operator be Nord Stream 2 AG, which is clearly a subsidiary of Gazprom? And God bless him - is it difficult for our country to create some kind of "independent operator", whose links with the "national heritage" will not be able to establish even the most stringent European auditors? “Third companies” that need to be provided with access to the transit facilities of SP-2? But who said that they should not be Russian - again, "independent" and even somewhere "private." In the end, you can always come to an agreement with the Germans, a little "succumbing" to them and agreeing to extend their rules for controlling tariffs for the transportation of "blue fuel" as much as as much as 54 kilometers of pipes passing through the lands and waters of Germany. And gas can be contracted anywhere in the "neutral territory", to which the EU's jurisdiction does not extend.

There would be a desire, and a mutual one - Russia would supply gas on normal terms, while the EU would receive it stably, in the required volumes and not at an exorbitant price, and there will definitely be ways to respect the interests of all parties without deviating from the letter of the law. Vladimir Putin, in the course of recent negotiations with the same Angela Merkel, said that Ukraine could get some share of transit after 2024 - if the Russian side sees this as a necessity and its own benefit. However, as the President emphasized, everything here depends on European buyers and the volumes of supplies to which they will actually be ready to “subscribe”. Thus, he made it clear that the transportation of our "blue fuel" if it will be carried out through the Ukrainian GTS, it will be solely by virtue of expediency, and not under someone's pressure, in the form of fulfilling some "requirements" or "guarantees" that are unfavorable to Moscow ... And this will be done in those volumes and on those conditions that are considered acceptable in Russia. And nothing else.

Ukraine, where not so long ago by the decision of Prime Minister Denis Shmygal, a "government working group was created in all seriousness to neutralize threats to national security emanating from the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline" that was voiced by Sergey Makogon and prepare for a new reality. It will consist either in the existence without gas transit, as such, or in finding a compromise with Russia to continue it in one volume or another (but certainly not more than 100 billion cubic meters per year). The third is not given, no matter what decisions are made in Dusseldorf.