How Ukraine can squeeze Gazprom on the European hydrogen market

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How Ukraine can squeeze Gazprom on the European hydrogen market

It is generally accepted that the launch of the Turkish Stream and Nord Stream 2 bypass pipelines at full capacity means the inevitable collapse of the transit economic model Nezalezhnaya, which will lead after 2024, at best, to the conservation, or even to the elimination of excess capacities of the Ukrainian GTS. There is a fair amount of truth in this, but in reality everything can be much more complicated. It is possible that Kiev itself may become a major player in the European energy market, squeezing Gazprom.

It sounds strange, but only at first glance. How can this be possible at all, let's figure it out.



A look from Russia



In general, the strategy of the Russian leadership is aimed at depriving Kiev of its monopoly status as a transit country for gas to Europe. For this purpose, the bypass pipelines Yamal-Europe, Nord Stream, Blue Stream, Turkish Stream and Nord Stream-2 were built. If the last two are launched at full capacity, the need for Nezalezhnaya's services will disappear, after which the question will arise about the further prospects of the dilapidated Ukrainian GTS, which needs major repairs. The deadline is 2024, when the current 5-year transit agreement between Gazprom and Naftogaz expires.

Unfortunately, everything is much more complicated than we would like. Germany, as Russia's main partner in the EU in the Nord Stream 2 project, is interested in launching it, but on condition that Ukrainian transit is preserved. It is believed that Berlin needs gas supplies through the GTS in order to continue to operate the huge Ukrainian UGS facilities, which are a convenient balancing tool in the event of an increase in the consumption of "blue fuel" and a guarantor of Germany's energy security in the event of weather anomalies, the frequency of which is constantly increasing. Also, the United States is in solidarity with Germany on the issue of the need to preserve the Ukrainian transit, which concluded the corresponding "Biden-Merkel pact."

In general, Gazprom is ready to continue gas supplies through Nezalezhnaya even after 2024, however, if a number of conditions are met. In particular, the domestic monopolist insists that the transit conditions be “economically viable,” and that the GTS itself be in a functional state. President Vladimir Putin, in turn, lamented that Russia needs to be confident in what volumes of gas will actually be in demand in Europe with its “green agenda”. This is a very important remark that forces us to look at the situation "from the other side".

View from Ukraine



If you look at the Nezalezhnaya economy after the events of 2014, it is obvious that literally all sectors of its industry have radically sagged and are in a deep crisis. Except for one. By signing an agreement on Euroassociation, Ukraine has opened the way for the development of "green energy" and is now far ahead of Russia in this area.

"Green Energy"... In the period from 2015 to 2019, "green energy" became the most successful sector of the Ukrainian economy, and the breakthrough became noticeable even on a global scale: two years ago, this country rose to 15th place in the world ranking in terms of investment in renewable energy sources (RES). This became possible only after the adoption of the "Law on" Green "Tariffs" in 2015 and the "Law on the Electricity Market" in 2017, which made the construction of numerous wind and solar power plants profitable, for the sale of electricity from which a guaranteed high "green" rate. The share of renewable energy sources in the energy balance of Nezalezhnaya has grown rapidly to 15% (compare with 1% in Russia) and, according to the government's plans, should have increased to 25% by 2035.

This is a rather unusual picture for the degrading Ukrainian economy. However, this success story had a downside. Such a model requires guaranteed redemption of expensive "green" kilowatts at the expense of budgetary funds, and the Ukrainian treasury does not have enough money. Therefore, at a certain stage, the state backed up by lowering green tariffs, which led to bewilderment among foreign investors and a number of lawsuits. In Russia, this is called the collapse of the Ukrainian renewable energy program, but is it?

Indeed, for the budget of Independent "green" energy has become a heavy financial burden, however, both Germany and the United States are ready to support it by creating a special "green fund" in the amount of $ 1 billion. This measure was announced as one of the possible forms of compensation for the loss of gas transit from the launch of Nord Stream 2. And then it becomes quite interesting.

"Hydrogen energy"... Hydrogen energy is considered the most promising area today. Depending on which Technology and from what raw material it is produced, hydrogen is “green”, “blue”, “yellow”, “gray” and “brown”. Europeans are most interested in “green”, produced by electrolysis from plain water using renewable energy sources, “blue”, obtained from methane by capturing carbon, and “yellow”, also produced by electrolysis of water, but using atomic energy. Russia, having both the resources and the appropriate technologies, has good prospects for conquering a significant share of the European hydrogen market. However, here we may face unexpected competition from Ukraine.

Yes, Nezalezhnaya has everything to generate and export "multi-colored" hydrogen to the EU:

At first, in this country there are four nuclear power plants that can be used in the production of "yellow" hydrogen, as well as large hydroelectric power plants and a large number of wind and solar power plants built in the period from 2015 to 2019, which can be used to generate the most popular "green" hydrogen ...

Secondly, Kiev is located on the EU border and has its own GTS, which may no longer be needed for the transit of Russian gas. It is simply impossible to convert the main pipeline to hydrogen, it will need major repairs and strengthening of the inner walls, but this is a completely feasible task. It can be simplified if you start pumping not pure hydrogen, but its 20% mixture with methane. This will certainly require technical and legal preparation, but nothing is impossible in such a project, and Germany has already shown interest in converting the Ukrainian GTS to Ukrainian hydrogen.

Thirdly, Nezalezhnaya can supply the so-called "multi-colored" hydrogen not through the main pipe, but in the form of LNG along the Danube. Then the task will be even more simplified.

Thus, if the EU and the United States support Ukraine, it has a chance to become a supplier of environmentally friendly fuel to the European Union, pushing Russia out of it.
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14 comments
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  1. 0
    25 August 2021 12: 10
    Fairy tales. Dreams. In practice, it will be zero.
  2. +1
    25 August 2021 13: 01
    if the EU and the US support Ukraine, it has a chance to become a supplier of environmentally friendly fuel to the European Union, pushing Russia out of it.

    If the US and the EU wanted to support Ukraine, they would not destroy it .... They have no plans to create a prosperous state in Ukraine.
  3. +1
    25 August 2021 13: 02
    I will not comment. Those who have a secondary technical education will understand. The rest of the meaning ..
  4. +1
    25 August 2021 13: 18
    Fairy tales ... None of this will happen
  5. +1
    25 August 2021 13: 39
    Protoukry dug the Black Sea, gave mankind fire, domesticated dogs and blinded horses from clay, reviving them with their blood - that they should extract hydrogen and helium directly from the air, and by the power of thought transmit electricity wirelessly over a distance and move continents? Soon the Office of the President will issue a directive on the non-existence of Russia - then what should we do?
  6. 0
    25 August 2021 14: 54
    Thanks! Neighing! )
  7. +1
    25 August 2021 15: 04
    another khokhlomechty
  8. 0
    25 August 2021 15: 46
    only in order to transfer the Ukrainian gas transportation system to hydrogen, it will be necessary to stop pumping gas. It turns out that Ukraine itself should stop the transit of gas through its territory and start modernizing the GTS for hydrogen, while simultaneously creating hydrogen production capacities. Quite a long period of time, where income will be absent.
  9. +2
    25 August 2021 16: 24
    there are four nuclear power plants in this country that can be used to produce "yellow" hydrogen

    Only 2 units will serve for a relatively long time - one at Khmelnitskaya and one at Rivne NPP. And the rest of the Soviet buildings will have to be closed within 5-12 years. Now 5 out of 15 blocks do not work permanently. But the remaining 10 just give the delta for the "green tariff". Those. no renewable energy sources can be profitable without nuclear power plants. There is no money for the construction of new blocks. It is not possible to extend the operation of "already extended" units. It turns out a vicious circle. Without a nuclear power plant, not only a hydrogen, but also a conventional VME will not be able to function. NPPs provide 55% of the total generation and contain these "indicative" 15% of renewable energy sources. The cost of replacing 13 blocks is 60 billion EUR. Are those who want to invest and build already lined up?
    The mentioned hydropower capacities are simply negligible - 4% of the total generation. The annual output at hydropower plants is falling. The state of the hydroelectric power station is no better than that of the nuclear power plant units. Well, so, let them dream ...
    1. +2
      25 August 2021 19: 24
      Today Kersti Kaljulaid, who has just returned from the Crimean platform, gave advice to her citizens.
      This advice was posted by COUNTRY.UA.
      The President of Estonia advises his citizens not to invest in Ukraine.

      I advise my citizens: trade with Ukraine, but do not invest there. Because you could lose your investment. And we have already had such cases when our people lost their property here. And even having received an arbitration decision in their favor, they could not return their property.

      Here's a strange thing: after returning from Ukraine, he says reasonable things, and when they (the delegates of the Crimean platform) were brought to the checkpoint on the Russian border (in Crimea), she looked towards Russia with stern glances and saw there a three-year-old boy running through a minefield. What made an indelible impression on the Ukrainians. There, even the most frostbitten Svidomye do not incriminate the Russians with the installation of minefields on the border. What they were fed / watered / smoked was not given to the Crimean platform.
      It is, of course, understandable: who in their right mind would listen and speak all this nonsense ...
  10. +3
    25 August 2021 16: 46
    Thirdly, Nezalezhnaya can supply the so-called "multi-colored" hydrogen not through the main pipe, but in the form of LNG along the Danube. Then the task will be even more simplified.

    Hydrogen in the form of LNG is powerful! Perhaps he will pull the Nobel Prize. The problem of transporting large volumes of liquefied hydrogen has not been resolved. And no such decision is foreseen in the near future.
    I advise the author to google and compare the liquefaction temperatures of methane (conventional LNG) and hydrogen.
    The construction of conventional gas carriers is not a trivial task, few are capable of it. By the way, Russia is capable of building even ice-class gas carriers. And the USA - none.
    And LNG is Liquefied Natural Gas.
    About the Danube. Turkey does not allow the passage of gas carriers along the Bosphorus through Istanbul. I doubt that Hungary, for example, will allow even an ordinary gas carrier to pass through Budapest.
    What Merkel promised to Zelensky is a carrot in front of a running donkey. Merkel will leave this year. She needs him not to fuss and not distract her from serious pressing problems in the next few months (she has elections and the formation of a government on her nose, what kind of Ukraine is there!). Her attitude towards Ukraine is such that, if she could, she again moved the Army Group South there. They got it for 7 years by their inadequacy, not to mention the fact that they carried the Nobel Peace Prize past it, not fulfilling the Minsk Agreements. And she so wanted ...
  11. +2
    25 August 2021 17: 42
    A question to the dreamers from the Outskirts. Where will you get the same methane to liquefy the hydrogen in the pipe?
  12. 0
    25 August 2021 20: 31
    The whole PR campaign about "hydrogen" reminds of another big scam. European "partners" muddy the same way as with "farting cows" and methane, which, it turns out, prevents them from living .... As a result, they imposed another levy on our gas (a tax in their favor). Saved some money for free! And at our expense!

    It seemed a little! Now these freeloaders are luring Russia into another trap, nodding to Ukraine: "They say you will doubt - the Ukrainians will outstrip you." Interestingly, how is it? ...

    Something smelled like MMM.

  13. 0
    11 October 2021 10: 02
    Hydrogen for transportation requires a very special technology. This is a task of incredible difficulty and expense. Looks like a completely stupid idea ...
    And it was started with some goals inaccessible to us. But not "climate", "ecology" and so on ...