Winged Taliban - Fantasy or Dangerous Prospect?

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One of the consequences of the shameful flight of the American army from Afghanistan was that a huge amount of weapons, military equipment and the equipment that the US has supplied for two decades to the largely imagined "government forces" of Kabul. Perhaps for the first time in the history of aggressive wars unleashed by Washington, his adversary received such fantastic trophies. Moreover, and, in fact, without a single shot - at least at the final stage of hostilities.

It is impossible not to mention that a serious headache from the quantity, and, most importantly, the nomenclature of everything that suddenly (and completely free of charge, that is, for nothing) suddenly turned out to be in the arsenals of the Taliban, today is experienced not only by generals from the Pentagon, but also, first of all, all the closest (and even not so) neighbors of Afghanistan. Indeed, among other things, the Mujahideen also got a very impressive fleet of combat aircraft. Let's try to figure out what consequences this can have.



"Gift" for billions


It should be noted that today no one can name the exact number and, moreover, specific models of military aircraft and helicopters, completely painlessly passed into the possession of the new masters of Afghanistan. The Pentagon in this matter (as, incidentally, in all others concerning the "Afghan exodus") has shown absolutely incredible carelessness and incompetence. So, at his press conference, which he gave back on August 18, the chief of staff of the US Strategic Command, Major General Hank Taylor, plainly stated that his department could not even approximately say how many and what kind of weapons it "gave" to the Taliban. The devil only knows ... A lot and everyone! Well, since such gouges are in charge of the Pentagon's strategy and other issues, let's try to figure out at least something on our own, relying on statistical data from open sources. So, let's start with the general and move on to the particular.

Between 2002 and 2017 alone, the United States reportedly transferred some $ 28 billion worth of weapons to the "government forces" it is building. It is worth considering that this amount includes the cost, for example, of at least 600 thousand units of small arms (mainly M16 assault rifles of various modifications), more than 160 thousand various communications equipment and 16 thousand modern night vision devices, as well as other equipment like Humvee armored personnel carriers. Plus, there is artillery and much more ... So the figure of two hundred combat aviation units received by Kabul from American "partners", so called in some sources, looks quite realistic. Another question is how many of these machines were suitable for operation at the time of the start of the American "drape" and what actually turned out to be in the hands of the winners.

According to the office of the US Special Inspector General for the Reconstruction of Afghanistan, the government air force fleet as of January 1, 2021 consisted of 162 aircraft, of which not all were in good condition. According to more accurate statistics from the same source, as of the beginning of this year, fifty aircraft could be lifted into the air with a sin in half: 17 light attack aircraft A-29 (Embraer EMB 314 Super Tucano) and a dozen light attack combat vehicles AC- 208 Combat Caravan. Also fit for service were two dozen light military "transport" C-208 Cessna Caravan and two medium military transport aircraft C-130 Hercules.

The situation with helicopters was somewhat better. 86 of them were ready to perform service and combat missions: 12 transport Mi-17s (Soviet-made, but delivered, again, by the Americans), 38 light MD 530F and as many as 36 UH-60 Black Hawk. At the same time, some other number of combat units was assigned to a certain "special-purpose aviation unit", the data on the composition and armament of which were tightly classified. Well, we will operate with those that are. Moreover, there is only one question left for us to clarify - how many winged machines "flew away" outside Afghanistan at the moments when "government troops" began to scatter like kitchen cockroaches when the lights were suddenly turned on. As you know, from 14 to 16 August, several hundred of these "soldiers" were sent to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan just by air, using the aviation equipment entrusted to them. According to various, again, data, we can talk about five planes that crossed the Tajik border, and about 22 planes and 24 helicopters that left for Uzbekistan.

Air Jihad? Unlikely, but possible


Based on these figures, we can conclude that the Taliban got a lot of air power. Moreover, elementary logic makes us assume that the defectors skidded on military transport planes and helicopters, and not on attack aircraft. Consequently, the strike vehicles remained standing on the runways and in the hangars. Why were they not destroyed, or at least brought to a state of complete disrepair, who knew very well that the American soldiers were leaving this country at the mercy of the Mujahideen? This is not a question for me, but for “smart people” like Taylor, and, in particular, for his colleagues from the US intelligence agencies, who seriously believed that Ghani’s “army” would be able to at least somehow effectively resist the irrepressible onslaught of the Taliban ...

All the conversations of Pentagon officials that they are thinking about "launching missile and bomb strikes on places of accumulation of military equipment inherited by the enemy", and, first of all, on airfields, are most likely empty chatter and an attempt to make a good face with a very, very bad game. Until the evacuation is completed, no one in Washington will dare to do anything like this. And then, firstly, it will be too late - unless the Taliban are complete fools (and they do not produce the impression of such). Secondly, there are suspicions that the new government, which has settled in Kabul, will have very weighty arguments against such actions in the form of very painful "asymmetric responses." The only thing the West hopes for (and not only there) is that the Mujahideen lack both pilots and, which is no less important, specialists capable of providing proper technical maintenance to the combat aviation that has fallen on their heads.

Simply put, all those to whom the presence of an organization, which is still considered a terrorist organization in the "world community", of its own air force, can go sideways, desperately hope that after a short time, this aviation will turn itself into piles of absolutely useless and not dangerous scrap metal for anyone. But is it really worth relying so much on such an outcome? In order to strongly doubt its one hundred percent probability, one should first of all remember that the Taliban already had their own air force. Moreover, it was 20 years ago, when in 1992 they got several MiG-21MF, Su-22, a certain number of Mi-8 helicopters and training L-39. Yes, some of these machines really collapsed, idle idle at airfields, some more were destroyed by American airstrikes in 2001. However, for some time they were quite efficient.

And here it should be taken into account that the Taliban of the 90s of the last century and the same movement in its current state are, as they say in the well-known city, two big differences. As practice shows, its leaders are very good at learning from their own mistakes and the blunders of their predecessors. What if, instead of leaving the winged and rotary-wing combat vehicles useless to rust and deteriorate in storage areas, the Taliban military leaders decide to use them for their intended purpose? No specialists and pilots? Let's be realistic - this is not such a big problem in modern conditions. There would be money (and the Taliban obviously have it), but people will be found. At least pilots from the same Ukraine, who tend to be found all over the world, and, first of all, in various "hot spots", will be able to serve and fly on Soviet equipment.

As it turned out recently, there were almost hundreds of Ukrainians in the PMCs working for the Americans in Afghanistan (some are there to this day). So why shouldn't their compatriots find themselves in the service of the Taliban - for an appropriate remuneration? As for, say, the "Black Hawks", then they are in service with the armies of more than one or two Muslim countries. Finding there flight and technical personnel of the appropriate profile, with a strong desire, is a very real thing. Take, for example, Turkey, whose president does not tire of demonstrating the most ardent desire to improve relations with the new masters of Afghanistan. The local army of "Black Hawks", as well as pilots, as well as technicians for them - is full. It is easy to assume that under certain circumstances Ankara will not so much hinder their business trip to the "fraternal" country, or else, you see, it will take on the education and training of local personnel. All these, of course, are only assumptions and versions, however, it is hardly worth declaring them completely unrealistic from the start. In life, it can turn out in any way, and this should be taken into account.

What is somewhat reassuring against the background of such alarming prospects is the fact that all the Afghan Air Force, according to experts in this field, is a set of machines that is clearly and unambiguously "sharpened" not for the fight against combat aviation (even the weakest) of the possible enemy, and under the air support of ground anti-partisan (or anti-terrorist, if you like), operations. In a clash with any army that has modern air defense systems and fighters, the case for the "winged Taliban" will turn out in the most deplorable way. So, if anyone in this case should worry, then they are desperately trying to resist the last adversaries of the Taliban in Panjshir. However, as far as we know, Ahmad Massoud has already announced his intentions to start negotiations on an "honorable surrender." Will the Taliban direct the equipment and weapons they have inherited against someone else? Will in their execution "air jihad" become a reality and who can be chosen as a target for such? We will definitely find out the answers to these questions over time.
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  1. +1
    25 August 2021 13: 09
    Our geopolitical adversary cannot be underestimated. Everything the US is doing has meaning, logic and consistency. And even more so, one cannot call them careless and incompetent. On the contrary, leaving the Taliban mountains of serious weapons (albeit not entirely modern), the Americans provoked a headache and pre-infarction state for all the closest (and not only!) Neighbors with Afghanistan - Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, India, China, Iran, etc. , not to mention Russia. Now assessing this obvious threat, these countries will have to strengthen their borders, mobilize their armed forces, and increase military spending. That is, in this region, the demand for modern weapons will increase many times over. Rivers of weapons will be drawn into this tense region, like a torn up hive. And who is the main supplier of weapons in the world today? That's right, USA. It turns out that they thus provoked the demand for the supply of weapons. Even taking into account the fact that Russia and China are using their own military developments, their weapons, the Americans will again earn billions on supplies. As they say - nothing personal, just business.
    1. +1
      25 August 2021 13: 37
      I absolutely agree that the enemy should not be underestimated, it is necessary to leave such concepts as militarily backward states, with the supply of modern weapons by the Americans and the presence of well-trained mercenaries, the Taliban and Al-Qaeda become very dangerous and serious opponents, and treat them as to wild weakly armed tribes this is a dangerous and ridiculous delusion !!!
  2. GRF
    0
    26 August 2021 11: 12
    Now the Americans look like: they do not want war, with PR they save people (not all of course) from alleged atrocities, "heroes" in one word, but in fact: they armed terrorists so that no one would think bad about them, even if they inflate a new one the fire of war in the region, are in constant negotiations with them, all according to plan. Otherwise, these weapons would have already been bombed, as at the bases in Kurdistan, before the Russian troops entered them ...
    The Taliban are the children of America, who are now being helped by the whole world to legalize and strengthen, for ... a good life, in America.