Kabul fell. When will Russia recognize the Taliban?

The troops of the Islamist Taliban group, banned in Russia, entered the capital of Afghanistan, Kabul, and the official pro-Western government, which was previously held only on the bayonets of the interventionists, was forced to capitulate to them. The Taliban themselves have declared an end to the 20-year war and so far are behaving more tolerantly than might have been expected of them. But what happens next? How soon will the language defining its status as terrorist disappear from the designation of the Taliban, and will it disappear altogether?

It was clear from the outset that the puppet government in Kabul had no chance against the Taliban. No one ever loves either invaders or collaborators. Therefore, President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw NATO troops from Afghanistan ahead of schedule was a suspended sentence for the ruling regime. The flag of the Islamist movement is already flying over the capital, which means that changes have begun. But where will they lead this country, which has become from many years of war?

Легализация

The first thing you notice is how much more reserved the Taliban are in their second coming to power in Afghanistan. If last time everything ended with the execution of President Najibullah, then in 2021 the Islamists calmly accepted the "keys to the city and the whole country" from the hands of the head of the collaborationist government. Perhaps the role was played by the US warning that it would strike at the Taliban if they allow themselves too much. However, the fact remains: the militants guarantee immunity to all foreign diplomats and have provided an open corridor for those who want to leave the country. At the Kabul airfield, there is a crowd, all the former officials of the puppet government want to catch the last plane in time. There was a video of how two fugitives who tried to fly away on it in the sky over the Afghan capital fell and died from the side of a transport ship. Apparently, supporters of the previous government do not feel safe, since they are ready to expose themselves to such a risk.

Nevertheless, the Taliban, in general, have so far been rather restrained. Representatives of the movement promise not even to exclude women from education if they hide their faces from outsiders. The reason is simple: now that victory is already in their pockets, the Islamists need to somehow legalize themselves in the eyes of the world community. If all power in the country has passed to a group recognized as a terrorist, then, therefore, Afghanistan should now also be considered a terrorist state? Of course, the Taliban leadership does not need this, they need international recognition. Recognition is the establishment of diplomatic relations, the conclusion of agreements on economic cooperation, military alliances, official trade, financial assistance in reconstruction, etc. What a ruined country needs.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke out sharply against such a decision:


He also called on the entire NATO bloc to solidify with London on this issue. However, he will hardly achieve complete unanimity. In the last coming to power, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan was recognized only by the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. This time around Afghanistan, at least two alliances have already formed, which are firmly aimed at mutually beneficial cooperation with the Taliban.

"Big game"

Around Afghanistan, in the entire macro-region of Central Asia, the “Great Game” is starting again. Several factors will influence its outcome.

At firsthaving received real power, the Taliban can begin an internal battle. This group is not united due to the multinational composition and different views of the militants of the older and younger generations on the future of Afghanistan. In addition, political emigrants from among the formal leadership who were hiding in Qatar and field commanders can assess the situation differently.

Secondly, the overwhelming success of the Taliban could give circles on the water throughout the region of Central Asia. The Islamist model of social structure may seem attractive to the social lower classes, which have no special prospects given the current state of affairs in neighboring Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan or Kyrgyzstan. The situation may worsen if the Taliban leadership decides to “bleed off steam” by sending their passionaries on a “holy campaign”.

Thirdly, the withdrawal of American and allied troops from Afghanistan opens up a lot of opportunities for other players. For China, for example, a neutral or friendly Afghanistan is a "security belt" along its trade route through Pakistan and its strategically important port of Gwadar to Iran, which Beijing views as its personal storehouse of hydrocarbon reserves. For Turkey and its allied Qatar, Afghanistan is a platform for penetration into Central Asia. The "sultan" is doing the best today: if he can come to an agreement with the Taliban, the Turks will strengthen their economic и political presence in Afghanistan, and if it does not work out, he will shelter the fugitive Afghan government and call neighboring countries into a defensive alliance against the Islamists, pulling the former Soviet Central Asian republics out of Moscow.

Thus, we see a very complex geopolitical configuration, where the western bloc, led by Great Britain, is sharply "at odds" with the new Afghan authorities, but at the same time two alliances have been formed: Turkey and Qatar, on the one hand, and China with Pakistan, on the other. who benefit from establishing pragmatic relations with the Taliban. In this regard, it is interesting how long Moscow will consider this group a terrorist and will start playing its own game with Kabul.