Smart learn from the mistakes of others. Fools even on their own cannot learn anything.
All citizens of Ukraine, who are now in a relaxed vacation and pre-holiday state and assessing their well-being by filling the refrigerator, looking at the hryvnia rate that has frozen for half a year at around 26 ... 26,2 UAH / dale and experiencing some kind of pacified condition from it, well, like, it won’t be any worse, we’ve already experienced the worst, they don’t even have a clue what their restless Confectioner had prepared for them in the fall. All their hopes that nothing bad will happen before the 2019 election, if he wants to be re-elected for a second term, are as utopian as the hopes of the Director of the Chocolate Factory to realize his plans and sit in the chair of the head of state, more like a hot pan .
The funny thing is that the Eater of Candies does not even hide his intentions to improve his affairs at the expense of the wallets of his wards. I am surprised only by the naivety of my fellow citizens, who, in vain, believe that this will not happen. It will be, my dears, as it will be. Yes, actually, the NBU (the National Bank of Ukraine, I translate for those who are not in the know) and does not hide it and publishes its plans in plain text. But my naive horses in pots and without even do not read such documents. What, they say, is the difference, we don’t understand anything there that he wrote there - some rubbish for advanced bespectacled people with financial and economic education. Cars drive, dudes sit in a cafe, the sun is burning, the aggressor is bending - everything is fine, everything is in the way!
I must disappoint you categorically, my dear fellow-earning fellow citizens. You are living the last days of visible prosperity and tranquility, the NBU has taken care of you so that your life does not seem raspberry. Only 30 days left, fasten your seat belts, take off! Whoever didn’t hide is not my fault, the NBU warned everyone. If you do not read the inscription, such as, "Do not stand under the arrow!", "Do not fit in - it will kill!", "Danger - high voltage!" - It's your problems! You were warned, you did not believe - did you rely on Petya? Hope further - I have no doubt that he will take you into account in his will.
It would seem that it was already possible to get used to in 4,5 years - they have you in a tough form, you shut up all the problems of this once prosperous (Lord, it was time!) State, with your corpses Petya has already paved his way to hell, although due to the inborn pathological dullness still hopes that he will be able to weave. Don’t hope, Petya, you won’t succeed! You will answer for everything to the fullest! But to you, my dear fellow citizens, from the other side it will not make it easier that the bum-confectioner will answer for everything and will testify in the Hague Tribunal (and this is even the best outcome for him, it would be much worse to repeat the fate of Ceausescu and be suspended upside down on some tree along Khreshchatyk, moreover, Putin will not even hang them, but fighters of the National Battles, whom he himself released from their Bendery caches and other web-covered OUN cellars, where they were buried all this time).
Okay, let’s leave the fate of the Confectioner to the prosecutor and go back to our sinful land in order to understand what kind of bastard the National Bank has prepared for us. I quote the NBU press release of July 12, 2018:
The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine decided to raise the discount rate to 17,5% per annum from July 13, 2018, in order to return inflation to the target range in 2019.
I transfer to the generally accessible for the uninitiated, the discount rate, another name - the refinancing rate, this is the percentage at which the regulator lends to commercial banks. By increasing it, the regulator (this is another name of the National Bank) artificially restricts access to credit money to customers of commercial banks (as a result, banks automatically raise their internal interest on loans, which makes borrowed money inaccessible or inaccessible to customers). That's all right for now - liquidity limitation is one of the most common instruments to curb inflation and the NBU uses it. Liquidity is the amount of money (both cash and non-cash) circulating in the market, inflation is price increases. I hope everything is clear so far. The only trouble is that these actions and their consequences have a time lag of up to six months, and are influenced by a number of other factors. Namely, the revival of domestic demand caused by active labor migration and the associated significant flow of money from abroad from migrant workers, imposed on high inflation expectations of the population against the background of increasing risks of not receiving the next tranche of the IMF and other related financing, plus a general decrease in interest investors to the assets of developing countries. Therefore, "more rigid monetary policy of the regulator and is designed to neutralize these negative factors and help reduce inflation to 5,8% at the end of 2019, and to 5% in 2020. ” This NBU reassures itself with hopes (I quote from a press release).
However, all these wonderful steps do not prevent the National Bank from leaving the inflation forecast for the end of 2018 unchanged at 8,9%. The explanation is simple:
A faster than predicted slowdown in inflation in May-June of this year will be leveled in the 2nd half of the year. Indeed, at the end of the year, a more substantial increase in administratively regulated prices and tariffs is expected than previously expected, aimed at bringing gas prices in the domestic market closer to the price of import parity and a corresponding increase in the cost of housing and communal services associated with them.
You see, the NBU does not hide anything - in the 2nd half of the year armageddon awaits us!
This factor will also affect the inflation rate during the first 3 quarters of next year, which will not allow the National Bank to bring it within the target range earlier than the 4th quarter of 2019. However, this factor lies beyond the influence of monetary policy and, accordingly, its tools should not be used to level it.
Those. NBU actually washes his hands and relieves all responsibility for what is happening. He is ready to answer only for domestic demand, caused by rising salaries and remittances of labor migrants, inflationary expectations of the population and a decline in investor interest in Ukrainian sovereign obligations due to the global trend of investors leaving the assets of developing countries. That's why he raises the refinancing rate to 17,5%, trying to curb inflation along the way, which the government spins, in order to please the IMF raising the gas price for all categories of users.
The degree of openness of the NBU is striking, which in this document honestly admits that in the coming year "real GDP growth will slow down to 2,5% (against the expected - 2,9%) due to the need to pay off significant volumes of public debt in 2019". And all this against the background of "exhaustion of the effects of raising social standards, tough monetary conditions caused by the need to return inflation to its stated goal, as well as restraint on state fiscal policy." NBU in this situation relies only on the IMF:
The National Bank expects that in 2018 Ukraine will receive about 2 billion dollars from the IMF, as well as related loans from the EU and the World Bank. This will increase international reserves to $ 20,7 billion at the end of this year. However, in 2019 and 2020, due to peak payments on external public debt, the balance of payments will be reduced in deficit, and international reserves will again fall to about $ 20 billion.
Everything is the end of the quote. I have only one question - what will happen if they do not give loans, how have they not been given to you for 1,5 years already? The NBU does not give an answer to this question, hoping only for "further advancement in the implementation of structural reforms provided for by the program of cooperation with the IMF." Very reminiscent of the saying - foolishness with thought by a little thought (I hope it is not necessary to translate?). The National Bank looks very much like this fool ... What loans, guys? You have not paid for the past!
Further delay in implementing the terms of the program of cooperation with the IMF reduces the likelihood of obtaining the financing provided for by this program, and is increasingly narrowing the window of opportunities in attracting debt resources on international capital markets, necessary for peak payments on government debt in 2018-2020. Therefore, the lack of planned revenues exacerbates the problems of financing budget expenditures.
- honestly notes the problem of the NBU, without giving an answer to it, limiting itself only to a promise to continue to raise the discount rate to level these problems.
But if the National Bank, out of its modesty, did not give you an answer to this burning question, then I will give it instead.
You are waiting for all hyperok! Scientific hyperinflation. It’s not a fact that this fall, but it’s not long to wait. If you haven’t found yourself in the lists of people with “high growth rates of real wages amid active migration processes” and you don’t want to receive “remittances from labor migrants”, then this means that you are caught between the hammer of the NBU and the anvil of the government and you it is in its own skin to learn all the charms of wild capitalism, which lives by the principle: "No money - die!". How will you pay for the apartment, I don’t know ?! And what will you eat if you pay, too ?! Probably receipts with water?
But the government of idiots can also be understood, it is faced with a hitherto unknown problem - incomes of the population suddenly began to grow faster than the growth rate economicsthat automatically began to untwist a flywheel of inflation. If you did not find yourself on the lists of these lucky ones whose incomes have grown - your problems, and the government is still forced to solve not your problems, but your own, and, excuse me, what is at your expense. The NBU, we must give it its due, also noted this paradox in its document: “Core inflation in June slowed down to 9,0% on an annualized basis and turned out to be lower than expected. However, its still high value indicates the preservation of significant fundamental inflationary pressures. Which, in turn, is the result of sustained growth in consumer demand, due to high income growth rates, significantly exceeding the economic growth rate. " In short, labor migrants are to blame for everything, who with their incomes outstripped the bending economy and provoked an increase in consumer demand, which led to a rise in prices (inflation). The government has not come up with anything smarter than how to raise housing and utilities tariffs and gas prices, and the NBU to raise the discount rate. And if you are in the middle between their rock and hard place, then these are your problems. Go to the West or in the Russian Federation to earn money, you can’t - sell organs or apartments. The problems of the Sheriff Indians, as you know, do not care! The road to the EU turned out to be long and no one promised that they would be fed on the road.
However, even those who still managed to learn the joy of apparent stability, I can not promise anything good - we are all entering a period of turbulence. Its peak will be in 2019-21. But even now, the government of idiots has faced the permanent problem of a shortage of currency, which already in late July (a month before the expected seasonal growth of the dollar) led to its growth and devaluation of the national currency. There are several reasons for this:
1. The first is the massive exit of international currency speculators, the so-called non-residents, from our government bonds (domestic government loan bonds) with the fixation of foreign exchange profits. All this was easily predicted, because OVDPs were short-term, with maturities of 3-6 months, and the strengthening of the hryvnia, just then, was associated with the sale of foreign currency by non-residents to enter them (and OGVZ were sold only for the hryvnia). But the fairy tale was not long, it was time to fix profits (and the profitability there is crazy - 17% per annum in hryvnia, which is not surprising with such a discount rate), and against the background of a fall in investor interest in the assets of developing countries, they began to leave our harbor, quite rightly believing that nothing good awaits her. This led to an imbalance in supply and demand for currency on the IMB and, as a result, to an increase in the dollar exchange rate and the devaluation of the hryvnia.
2. The second reason for the lack of currency is a drop in the export of Ukrainian steel to the EU countries, and with it the foreign exchange earnings from exporters to the budget in the form of taxes. Reason: EU protective duties on our steel, which so protects its producers, who have nowhere to sell their products because of similar US protective duties, which blocked European steel from accessing its market (the US aligns the negative trade balance with the EU). It should be noted that no one expected this and the trade wars unleashed by Donald Trump were an unpleasant surprise not only for Europeans, but also for Ukrainian non-European people who got boomerang in the horns. But for us, the citizens of this country, it is not easier from this.
3. What will happen when the prices for the main articles of our export — grain and ore — that still hold high, fall, I don’t know. I know only one thing - then no refinancing rate will save us. With the deterioration of the external economic situation, the collapse will be rapid, and we will find out on our own terms such a thing as “Venezuelanization of the country”, when not the “Zimbabwea” will scare the Ukrainians, but the “Ukraine” will scare the inhabitants of Zimbabwe and Venezuela.
Everyone who thought that he had already known and experienced all the worst for the 4 years after the revolution of losers, I must disappoint - the worst is just beginning, before that it was toys. The toys are over, the harsh truth of life begins, with eviction from apartments for debts (And what, you can’t? After all, Maidan stood for it!), With the mass exodus of the most active and mobile population abroad in search of work, with banditry, robbery and robbery right on streets, (I’m silent about apartment thefts - this has generally become the norm of our lives, thanks again to the Maidan!). And what - what claims to our helpless police? Did you see who they got there ?! They are almost powerless there before the wave of crime that has swept our cities, they could have saved themselves! And take care of the organs (already yours - internal) - the law that simplifies their transplantation has already been adopted, now bandits can take up them. Ukraine runs the risk of knowing the very dashing 90s that Russia went through at one time, hitting us only on a tangent. Now we are waiting for a concentrated squeeze of them, raised to the 4th degree. And not everyone will see the light at the end of the tunnel. Or, as our brainless metropolitan mayor says, having left his last brains in the ring: “Today, tomorrow, not everyone will be able to watch. Rather, not only everyone can watch, few can do it. ” Do you understand anything? And the people of Kiev have been living with this miracle for 4 years!
People who survived the 90s probably have not forgotten the annoying advertisement of those years: “Colgate protects your teeth from morning to evening,” and at night ... And at night, my dears, caries comes! So it will be with us, gentlemen! All these years, Petya has protected us from the destructive consequences of Maidan from morning to evening, but 4 years later he came at night ... No, not Putin! Alas! .. On a dark August night came the one whom you have been waiting for so long with horror - hyperok, gentlemen! And you thought, why did these idiots stamped iron money 2, 5 and 10 hryvnias in advance, the size of 2 kopeks and nickels? The idiots knew what everything was headed for - they prepared in advance! Very soon, 10 UAH will be lying on the road and no one will bend to pick it up. And what? .. And nothing! .. Thanks comrade Sing for our happy childhood! And do not say that you were not warned!
PS Meanwhile, the deficit of the state budget of Ukraine in the first half of 2018 amounted to 9,78 billion hryvnias. This was reported by the press service of the State Treasury Service. It is also noted that last year the state budget for this period was reduced with a surplus of 29,04 billion hryvnias. Against this background, massive delays in pensions began to be observed in Ukraine, about which the authorities did not immediately inform the population. The cash gap (negative difference between income and expense) in the Pension Fund amounted to about 3 billion UAH. This has affected so far 1,2 million pensioners.
PPS See, I have not deceived you. Everything starts to come true. And you haven’t seen your payments for August (from August 1, gas tariffs will rise - something will happen in October-November ...). Wangyu - the dollar exchange rate by the end of the year at the level of 30 UAH / USD. Already in September we will break the mark of 28. What did you want? Have you seen what rate is budgeted for this year? 29,3 UAH / USD! How do you, at the current rate, by 3 hryvnias less, finance all the items of expenses included in it? So Groysman has the same problems ... There is nowhere to go - you need to raise it. And this is just the beginning! So fasten your seat belts - take off!