Between Biden and Merkel: Zelensky is imprisoned on a "political twine"

Apparently, the jubilee day of Ukraine's independence will not bring any positive emotions to its president. As if a mockery of this "holiday", Volodymyr Zelensky will have to listen to moral teachings and admonitions from the German Chancellor on its eve, and then go “on the carpet” to the US President. In a word, to communicate with the true masters of this country, who determine its real course both in external and internal policy.

At the same time, the conversation, both in the first and in the second case, is unlikely to be easy and pleasant for the comic "head of state". Rather, he will have to go through a rather serious "headwash", especially in Washington. What does all this mean to us? At least the fact that the results of Zelensky's meetings with his Western "curators" will determine Kiev's actions for the entire near future. Including - in the Russian direction.

Grandma has arrived ...

In general, the schedule of foreign policy contacts of the head of the "nezalezhnaya" completely and completely fits into the scheme so beloved in the West with the "good and evil policeman". The role of the first, of course, is assigned to Frau Merkel, who must personally come to Kiev on August 22. A kind, you know, a visit by a "European grandmother" to a bad "grandson", who is clearly not the pride of the "family", but has not yet been retired from home. By the way, the date of Frau Chancellor's arrival in the Ukrainian capital (exactly on the eve of the opening of the constituent conference of the Crimean Platform) has given rise to some of the local dreamers and enthusiasts quite deceitful theories, such as that Angela Merkel intends to personally take part in this extremely dubious event. Well, really, what does it cost her? All the same, you will soon "retire" - you can play the "platform" too, giving it the status that is so striving for in Kiev with your presence.

It is a sin to disappoint the naive, however, you have to do it. Every single political expert agrees that, being already, in fact, the ex-head of Germany, Merkel will in no way mark the end of her own political career with a demarche that will absolutely inevitably ruin relations between Moscow and Berlin, and it will ruin them badly. Moreover, she may well advise Zelensky, behind the scenes and without any extra ears, not to make absolutely “sharp movements” during this very conference. It is absolutely clear that Frau is taking upon herself a not too, for sure, a pleasant duty for her to try to explain to the stubborn young upstart that in fact for Ukraine everything could be worse and, for sure, it will be worse - if he and his entourage do not take up their minds in the most urgent order.

This concerns, first of all, of course, Nord Stream 2 and the deal concluded between the United States and Germany over it. Zelensky and some other figures representing official Kiev have so far not tired of pouring out statements about some kind of "continuation of the struggle" against the gas pipeline, which they intend to conduct "to the bitter end." Berlin (and under any chancellor) does not need this at all. To “settle” this issue with Washington already cost the same Merkel incredible labors, so every small fry of Germans who gets underfoot and squeaks about “betraying her interests” annoys. Most likely, Zelensky will be explained in an extremely clear and uncompromising manner that any money for "green energy" and other things his country will receive only with a very tightly closed mouth. And, certainly, not if Kiev tries to create some kind of "fronts" against the SP-2 with the participation of the same Poles, whose claims to strengthen their position within the European Union are already very hard on Germany.

Moreover, a conversation with a German guest may become even more unpleasant for the Ukrainian leader. This is in the event that she demands that Zelensky stop endless wandering around Donbass and begin to implement the Minsk Agreements and everything that he honestly promised, including to her personally, during the last meeting in “ Normandy format ". After all, the "Steinmeier formula" is the creation of the "gloomy Teutonic genius" and that is exactly what the comedian president Merkel can recall about it. In light of the latest public statements and interviews by Zelensky, as well as the laws adopted in Ukraine, there can be no such talk, but new promises will have to be made to her head unambiguously.

"Hibernation" for Ukraine?

However, even the most painful conversations on their own territory, perhaps, will seem to the Ukrainian president only a "light warm-up" before the dragging that awaits him overseas. Why is that? There are very specific reasons and clear signals that directly indicate that no one is going to pat Zelensky on the head in the White House. There is no doubt that he will certainly be reminded of the seditious speeches about the "pivot to the East" that were heard from Kiev recently, and new large-scale contracts with Chinese comrades, and the incessant (contrary to Washington's explicit wishes) attacks on Nord Stream 2. And, most importantly, there are too transparent hints that in this particular case the White House has "handed over" or even "thrown" someone there. The Ukrainian side stubbornly does not get the idea, which is obvious to the West, that there was no “betrayal” in this case and could not be, since the “white gentlemen” cannot have obligations to the natives by definition.

In the event that the comic president tries to "swing rights" in the Oval Office, then he will be very quickly explained this moment. And if Zelensky, who has recently begun to "enter" more and more clearly, dares to make even a hint of something like this "in front of the highest person", then he risks being on the lawn in front of the White House with characteristic prints on the lower back. True, this is a rather unlikely scenario, more likely the "leader of the nation" will perform the ceremony of kissing shoes with great enthusiasm, he will simply try to beg for anything, but always to the maximum. Everything goes to this - because the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, Dmitry Kuleba, who visited the United States the day before, and the head of the presidential office, Andriy Yermak, who were awarded an audience with Anthony Blinken himself, probably received the most detailed instructions and strict warnings from him on this matter.

According to these two characters, who “flew” to Washington to “settle” the last details of the upcoming visit, in a conversation with the head of the State Department, much attention was paid to “the situation in Donbass”, and, most importantly, “the joint US-Russian confrontation of the armed aggression of Russia ". The legend is fresh ... That Kuleb, that Yermak will lie - they will not take it dearly. On the other hand, Blinken could well have dropped a few ritual phrases on this topic. In reality, the readiness of the United States to further aggravate relations with Moscow is evidenced by the future visit to Kiev on the "Crimean Platform" and the celebration of the independence day of the "blue" US Secretary of Transportation. Could at least single out Nuland for such an opportunity. But they did not want to ... This is evidenced, perhaps, that at the present time Washington Ukraine, rather, intends to "put into hibernation mode", taking up the establishment of its full control over all its state bodies and economic assets.

Naturally, the Americans do not intend to "turn off" the anti-Russian direction in any case. However, at this particular moment, the Chinese vector is more relevant for them. Namely, they intend to concentrate the maximum of their own forces and resources on it. In this regard, Zelensky, again, will be strongly advised to shut up (at least for a while) about Nord Stream 2, or, what good, they will also remind about Minsk. It is difficult to predict that the Ukrainian president will succeed in extorting Biden for this case. It is unlikely that the handouts will be too generous - the resources of the "hegemon" are not unlimited, and Kiev, as already mentioned, is clearly not priority number 1 at this stage.

On the other hand, the reluctance of the United States to use the "Ukrainian card" against Moscow, as they say, "here and now" may also be due to the fact that the American side understands perfectly well that nothing good will come of it. The extreme harshness shown by Russia during the spring crisis in Donbas and the readiness to go to the end, clearly articulated by the Kremlin, showed that our country cannot be frightened. Well, a real military clash will simply mean the end of the "Ukraine project", in which the United States has already invested considerable funds and which they have not yet fully used for their intended purpose. Therefore, it is quite possible, in Washington, having given the command to Kiev to somewhat reduce the activity of anti-Russian demarches, they will seriously prepare it for the "last and decisive". Consequently, Washington's real plans should not be judged by the official statements that will be made during Zelensky's visit. And even more so, not by the boastful rhetoric of the comedian, who, upon returning home, will be filled with a nightingale about the "indestructible and decisive support" promised to him by overseas "partners".

Real conclusions can be drawn by monitoring the military activity of the United States in Ukraine, the dynamics of supplies there from the American side of arms and military equipment (if any) and the like. If Washington's "concern" about "protecting Ukrainian sovereignty" spills over into something more than threatening words and decommissioned patrol boats, this should become a very serious and alarming signal for our country, evidence that new ones can and should be expected from Kiev. provocations, only much better provided materially and technically. Well, and if the talk about providing him with American combat aircraft, anti-aircraft missile systems or something like that becomes a reality, then it will be necessary to prepare for the worst of the options.

In any case, after talking with Frau Merkel and Mr Biden, Zelenskiy will receive very clear directives that he will no longer be able to evade. Ukraine, which has long lost its subjectivity in foreign policy, will celebrate its own "jubilee" in the interval between two meetings, which, in fact, will be decisive for its future.