How Nord Stream 2 can tie Russia's hands in the Ukrainian direction

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Kiev announced that Gazprom is preparing to dismantle the Russian part of the main pipeline in order to exclude the pumping of gas through Nezalezhnaya after 2024. This was stated by the head of the company "Operator GTS of Ukraine" Serhiy Makogon. This sounds rather strange against the backdrop of the recent deal between Berlin and Washington on Nord Stream 2 and the preliminary consent of President Putin to preserve Ukrainian transit. What are they trying to achieve this time in Kiev?

Undoubtedly, all this is a direct consequence of the US-German agreement on the fate of Nord Stream 2, which instead of a bold point put an ambiguous ellipsis. Let's once again, without unnecessary emotions, try to evaluate this project and what goals and objectives can be achieved with the help of the bypass pipeline.



When deciding to start the construction of Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream, certain tasks were set: to get rid of the total dependence on Ukrainian transit, which became unacceptable after the events of 2014, and implicitly - to get leverage on Kiev in order to be able to do something like that with a hostile Square. What exactly was never officially deciphered, so everyone could think out possible scenarios on their own. After seven years of ordeals, it becomes clear that only half of the tasks can be solved.

On the one hand, yes, the launch of the Turkish Stream first, and then the Nord Stream 2, really sharply reduces Russia's dependence on Ukrainian transit. Those volumes that could previously only be pumped through Independence Square will soon be bypassed. For Kiev, this means political defeat, because it loses the most powerful lever of pressure on Moscow in the form of its GTS, which is of exceptional strategic importance for Gazprom. Theoretically, in 2024, after the expiration of the current transit agreement, it is really possible to close the valve by starting to dismantle pipes from our country, leaving Ukraine to deal with its sovereign problems on its own. It would seem that here it is, victory, it's time to open the champagne. Or is it too early?

On the other hand, everything is much more complicated than we would like. Alas, the Western "partners" are not at all going to surrender the Independent to the Kremlin so easily. Both the US and Germany agree on the idea that Gazprom should be forced to maintain certain volumes of transit through Ukraine. Washington needs this in order to be able, if necessary, to shut off the valve on the pipeline from the West, while Berlin needs the Ukrainian GTS to maintain the operability of its huge underground gas storages. As they say, a raven will not peck out a crow's eyes. Also, the question of who will pay for the repair and subsequent maintenance of the dilapidated Ukrainian pipeline system remains very relevant. For Western partners, the candidacy for this role seems to be quite obvious - Gazprom. And where to go if Moscow themselves are talking about their readiness to continue using this GTS after 2024? Kiev has no money for repairs, and the pumping obligations will lie with Russia. So, let's imagine that a major accident happens on the pipe, and what next? Who will have to pay for the restoration to fulfill the contract with European consumers? It is clear that Gazprom, who else.

So, what do we get with the commissioning of Nord Stream 2? From the published data on the deal between the United States and Germany, it follows that the start of operation of the pipeline is linked to the need for an agreement between Berlin and Moscow to extend the Ukrainian transit agreement after 2024 for another 10 years. The volumes of gas pumped still remain unknown, but earlier the figure of 10-15 billion cubic meters of gas per year was already mentioned. This may be enough to keep the Ukrainian economics, heating in winter and other urgent needs, as well as for the operation of the UGS facilities necessary for Germany. Kiev's transit revenues would then be drastically reduced, forcing it to launch an attack right now. Alas, he still has leverage to put pressure on Moscow.

We are talking about the unresolved problem of Donbass, as well as about Crimea. At any moment, Ukraine can start hostilities against the DPR and LPR and even carry out some kind of military provocation against the peninsula, forcing the Russian army to intervene. Here, unfortunately, the clauses of the agreement between Germany and the United States will come into force on the inadmissibility of using Nord Stream 2 as an energy weapon and on the inadmissibility of direct Russian aggression against Ukraine. If the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation enter the territory of Independence, even in response to a large-scale offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the unrecognized republics of Donbass, Berlin undertakes to stop buying Russian gas. It turns out that all the "cunning plans" in the Ukrainian direction should be forgotten, which we were now reminded of from Kiev.

It is difficult to say for sure whether Nord Stream 2 is a success or failure, complete or partial for Russia. Only time will tell.
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  1. +3
    1 August 2021 11: 50
    That we are breaking all spears and tearing each other's forelocks inside ourselves, well, we built this unfortunate gas pipeline, well, we pressurized it and launched it into Europe, and now, with every sneeze in the direction of the "nezalezhnaya" and other Baltic farmsteads, Washington will give the command our European gas "partners" then close, in case of our bad behavior, then open the shut-off valves with our good behavior, and so it can be a hundred times a day and indefinitely .... Or maybe we can cut off our supplies to them for autumn-winter this year, in view of the repair work, and let Europe freeze and freeze until blue in the face, and carry buckets of American liquefied gas, which will cost them two or three times more. I just don’t understand our big managers and analysts, why they didn’t calculate everything, not only the economic risks of this gas pipeline, but also the political ones, which in our time prevail over everything, and even over the lives of millions of people. The United States will continue to scoff at us and spread rot until the pro-American liberoids Kudrins, Chubais, Khodorkovsky, and other naibulins come to real power in Russia, and then they will bring us to Moscow again another button with "OVERLOAD" they will surrender all of Russia completely, as it was during the drunkard Yeltsin, at the mercy of American capital, and after all, everything is heading towards this, because. we can't even snap at our "partners" and are afraid, otherwise "whatever happens."
    1. 0
      1 August 2021 12: 10
      Quote: Valentine
      Washington will instruct our European gas "partners" to close, if we behave badly, or open shut-off valves if we behave well, and this can happen a hundred times a day.

      So after all, this pipe is like that double-edged sword, the valves on it and on our side are, and Russia can decide whether their behavior is good manners or not.
  2. +2
    1 August 2021 12: 06
    Kiev announced that Gazprom is preparing to dismantle the Russian part of the main pipeline in order to exclude the pumping of gas through Nezalezhnaya after 2024. This was stated by the head of the company "Operator GTS of Ukraine" Serhiy Makogon. This sounds rather strange against the backdrop of the recent deal between Berlin and Washington on Nord Stream 2 and the preliminary consent of President Putin to preserve Ukrainian transit. What are they trying to achieve this time in Kiev?

    This will certainly not happen. But I thought, what if they are interrogated, they want to see this and this is not the first time they are exaggerating this topic, that Gazprom will take it and go to meet them, dismantle the pipe. What about gas, what about gas? Nothing, it will sell the volumes agreed by the agreements, only Ukraine will pump it in transit through Germany. Is this what they are trying to achieve?
    1. +4
      1 August 2021 12: 37
      This will certainly not happen.

      It will most likely be. Gazprom announced plans to dismantle part of the system back in 2016. Last year, Naftogaz was already making noise about this. GazProm responded that due to the changed transit conditions (volume reduction), it is economically unprofitable to maintain a full range of equipment. Some compressor stations and unnecessary pipes are being dismantled

      In Soviet times, says Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, a lot of gas pipelines were built in the Ukrainian direction. Initially, the total capacity of pipelines at the entrance to the Ukrainian gas transportation system exceeded 200 billion cubic meters of gas, and about 180 billion at the exit.
      “Naturally, Gazprom will never pump such a volume. For this year, the transit contract is 65 billion cubic meters, and then another four years for 40 billion cubic meters per year - so Gazprom is dismantling unnecessary pipes. Naturally, all gas pipelines will not be dismantled, since the contract must be fulfilled for more than four years, and then the Ukrainian direction may still be useful. But also no one will support approach gas pipelines for more than 60-70 billion cubic meters of gas, as it is expensive", - says Yushkov.

      Gazprom adheres to a similar position. Sergei Pravosudov, director of the Institute of National Energy and editor-in-chief of the corporate magazine of Gazprom, told the Russian edition of PolitExpert, dismantling of pipes is explained by a strong reduction in supplies through Ukraine, which previously accounted for about 90% of all gas transportation to Europe.
      1. -1
        1 August 2021 13: 01
        Quote: Bakht
        It will most likely be. Gazprom announced plans to dismantle part of the system back in 2016.

        Gas is supplied to Ukraine from Russia through 22 main gas pipelines, from Ukraine through 15. Ukraine does not buy gas from Russia, but buys from Europe, theoretically 7 out of 22 pipelines can be disassembled, this will not offend anyone, neither Ukraine nor Europe.
        1. +1
          1 August 2021 13: 08
          This is what we are talking about. In general, there are many imprecise interpretations on this issue. Let's say about the fact that after 2024 Germany will oblige Russia to continue transit for another 10 years.
          The text of the agreement said that the transit agreement could be extended for another period of 2024-2035 on the same terms. That is, if there is a competitive price for transit, taking into account such prices in Europe. So the Biden-Merkel agreement is a conversation about nothing. Back in 2019, Gazprom agreed to pump the same 40 billion cubic meters (or less) if economically feasible.
          Apparently, no one wants to read the text of the agreement.
          Regarding this article. Under the agreement, gas has been pumped since 2019. And during these one and a half years, there was not a single accident. Why these accidents will begin after 2024, nobody knows.
          All expenses for maintaining the GTS are borne by the owners of the GTS. GazProm, apparently, will keep some transit volumes (I am personally against it, but Gazprom will obviously not listen to me). But these transit supplies do not save Ukraine in any way.
          1. -1
            1 August 2021 13: 17
            In general, I agree with your thoughts and yes there are many pitfalls, but the main one, as you rightly noted, is the state of the pipe, especially after 10 years.
  3. 0
    1 August 2021 12: 13
    Mr. Marzhetsky, have you ever renovated your neighbor's apartment?
    Responsibilities for pumping, and therefore the repair of the GTS, lie with Ukraine and no one else. GazProm will supply gas, and how this gas will get to Europe is a headache for Kiev. The obligations of the parties are clearly spelled out in the transit agreement. The obligation of Gazprom to supply gas and pay for its pumping. The duty of Ukraine is to deliver this gas to Europe. See paragraph 14.2 of the transit agreement. Moreover, it states that in the event of the termination of transit, it is Naftogaz who must pay the losses to Gasprom.
    This question can be closed.
  4. 0
    1 August 2021 12: 15
    Now, let's imagine that a major accident occurs on the pipe, and what next? Who will have to pay for the restoration to fulfill the contract with European consumers? It is clear that Gazprom, who else.

    Why suddenly? The pipe is located on the territory of another state, and it is responsible for the quality of the pipe. If, for any reason, on the territory of another state, the pipe becomes unusable, then this is not Gazprom's fault (unless the gas transit agreement specifies otherwise), but the state's fault that it failed to ensure the quality of services performed - integrity GTS. Gazprom is clean to its customers - it fulfills its obligations in full.
    1. +1
      2 August 2021 08: 53
      Male Russian citizens are prohibited from entering Ukraine. Who from Gazprom will be allowed to repair pipes in Ukraine - cleaners? So they will remove the remains of the pipe.
  5. 0
    1 August 2021 12: 48
    everything from two-faced politics. Skzali we will analyze, then we will analyze, otherwise everything can if so if only. So that everyone knows that there will be no options if they break.
  6. +1
    1 August 2021 13: 38
    The Sshasovites, their European protectorate, Ukraine, Belarus, everyone is trying to cash in on the RF energy resources and will not calm down in any way - everyone is looking for ways to blackmail the Russian Federation, and is it time to put the relationship upside down and the Russian Federation to show political will and respond with the same coin, so more winter is just around the corner, you look and think about cross-border carbon and other taxes, the third energy package and distribution networks.
    1. +1
      1 August 2021 15: 08
      You can easily turn off the EU gas for a month, so that they understand that it is the owner of a liquid eco-friendly product that dictates its conditions and price, and not the buyers. The Russian Federation can easily sell all its gas and oil in the Asia-Pacific region, where 3 billion people will be torn off with their hands, and there the price is 2 times higher. you can build a pipe to Japan. Korea, China already has a pipe, the rest can be carried on LNG tankers. then the EU will smoke with coal)) and if they still want to switch to electric cars, then they will have to burn hundreds of million tons of coal, ha ha
      1. +2
        1 August 2021 16: 15
        You simply and clearly state your thoughts, and I agree with you 100%, but here we have "sent Ukrainian Cossacks" who do not like it, and with great pleasure they minus everyone who goes against their Nazi-Bandera ideas, and without gas and its transit, they will generally remain without trousers, and as far as I can, I will remove this redness from you.
  7. +2
    1 August 2021 15: 03
    no need to whip nonsense, if an accident occurs on the pipes of the joint venture and the joint venture2 (possibly sabotage by amers), this means the EU will be left without Russian gas, so the EU special services should take care of the pipe better than their eyes. and if the EU also wants to transit through Banderstan, then the EU itself must pay the transit fee, that is, the payment for transit through Banderstan should not be included in the price of gas. Accordingly, this is not Gazprom's concern, then the EU should increase the volume of purchases so that there is transit through the Banderstan, because otherwise there is nothing to pump through the Banderstan, because all the gas goes through the JV and JV2
  8. +2
    1 August 2021 21: 44
    To be honest, it is generally incomprehensible all the nonsense that they write here ... We must start with the fact that SP1 / 2 are commercial projects of specific investors, 51% - Gazprom, 49% - Western. The SP1 / 2 themselves are 2000 km shorter. The prime cost of pumping per 1 km is several times lower. As a result, transit payments are lower in multiples, and given that these are payments to themselves, then the conclusion is that first of all, SP1 / 2 will be loaded, and the rest - according to the residual principle ... And now, as for this "residual" after the commissioning of SP2 Gazprom Able to execute all contracts on the lower tolerance without any problems. Delivering over and above the contract - as the corrupt managers of Gazprom used to do - is stupid, it drove gas prices, and gas is not an infinite resource ... Now the execution of contracts on the required volume has led to a sharp increase in the exchange price of gas. And now, thanks to requirement 3 of the EU energy package, it is a very significant contract value. Moreover, the 3rd energy package requires a transition to short-term contracts for both purchase and transit - so the KhokhloGTS need not be booked at all - let the "alternative" suppliers fill it in! And Gazprom can book monthly, for example, if the total price of entry / exit is competitors with SP1 / 2, which is certainly economically impossible;))) But there will be nowhere to go - there will be no transit - there will be no gas for itself;)) So she may well "transit" for herself and into a deep minus ... The only question is in time - she will freeze, get huge problems ... And she will agree ...
  9. -1
    1 August 2021 22: 23
    Ah, Nord Stream there, Nord Stream here ... the difference is only for Gazprom's profits.
    And for the rest - the classic: "Oil is getting cheaper - gasoline is getting more expensive" in relation to gas ....
  10. 0
    4 August 2021 07: 01
    The author is ridiculous. Declaration of the USA and Germany Russia on the drum about which was directly said: "Without me they married me." During the last audit in 2018, the Ukrainian GTS was 85% worn out. Money in repairs has not been invested and is not being invested. By the end of 2024, the wear will be at least 99%. The state of the pipe when there are alternative routes is a problem for Ukraine and no one else cares. Pumping 10 - 15 billion is possible only at commercial competitive rates. In principle, Ukraine is not able to provide them (pumping through SP1, SP2 is cheaper and more environmentally friendly at times). Gas storages in a gas impasse with a thieving and unstable regime are a pleasure for masochists, after 2024 they will be for internal use only. In principle, 90% of the GTS capacity is not needed by anyone after 2024 (it was designed for completely different volumes). It is very unlikely, but it is possible that there will be a German company willing to invest in the renovation of one route to Romania, this is the notorious 10-15 billion. and there will probably be further degradation of the regime; personally, I do not believe in it. wink