The Russian Aerospace Forces will have to hit the "decision-making centers" in Afghanistan


Russia continues to build up its military presence in Tajikistan. Two years ago, the S-300PS air defense system was deployed on the territory of this former Soviet republic, a year ago combat helicopters were deployed there, and now motorized riflemen will receive an additional 17 units of BPM-2M. The Russian military will take part in joint exercises with their Tajik and Uzbek counterparts to repel a possible attack by a gang of militants totaling 1000 people who invaded from a neighboring country, which means Afghanistan. But what will happen after the teachings are over? Are we staying in Central Asia for a long time or forever?


Much is being said today about the potential military and terrorist threat emanating from Afghanistan. At the same time, it is very important to understand what exactly is being discussed. One can see doubts among a certain audience that 1000 militants can actually do anything at all. So it is or not, let's figure it out.

When talking about Afghanistan, we usually mean the Taliban (an extremist group banned in the Russian Federation). At the same time, one should be aware that this group is far from united and monolithic in its views and goals. There is an older generation that, after 20 years of foreign intervention, finally achieved the complete withdrawal of the occupiers from the territory of their country. These people understand the need to take it under their control by 100% and legalize it in the eyes of the world community in order to gain international legal personality. And there is a young generation that has only fought for the last 20 years and knows nothing but war and does not know how to do it. It is possible that immediately after the fall of Kabul inside Afghanistan, an internal squabble may begin between the victors, and it remains to be seen who will prevail in it. It is possible that it will be more profitable for the Taliban leadership to “bleed off steam” by sending young passionaries on a “long march”, preferably one way, in order to solve the problem with the opposition with someone else's hands. Also, let's not forget that there are other extremist groups operating on the territory of Afghanistan. The most terrible of them is, of course, ISIS (banned in the Russian Federation), but besides them there are other gangs, which, in fact, are the current authorities, made up of representatives of the former Northern Alliance, who are suffering defeat after defeat. They also face the question of where to go if the Taliban take control of the entire country.

Now with regard to the relatively small number and weak armament. It should be borne in mind that the militants of all of the above and other groups have been well trained and have vast combat experience. With regard to supplies, there is no doubt that sponsors willing to help finance and supply weapons with ammunition will be found in some Muslim and non-Muslim countries. Still, what can 1000 fighters do? Will there be enough strength to break into Dushanbe or Ashgabat?

No, but they don't need it. You should be aware that the situation in some countries of Central Asia has long matured to the point of the need for some changes. The people for the most part live, to put it mildly, are not rich even in gas-rich Turkmenistan, therefore they are forced to go to work in Russia as illegal immigrants. The few ruling elites, on the other hand, live very well. There are no significant positive changes on the horizon. There is undoubtedly a request for change, but what could it be? It should be understood that in Central Asia, the popularity of the ideas of radical Islam as a form of a more just socio-political system is growing, and many militants from the former Soviet republics have long "got off the couch" and are fighting for their brothers in faith in Syria and other hot spots. The fact that dormant terrorist cells are being formed in their homeland is not only said by the lazy. So far, sleeping.

Now let's imagine what could happen in the event of an invasion of such a country by 1000 trained, well-armed and mobile fighters. They are quite capable of capturing some border settlement. There they will raise their flag and proclaim the "Islamic world." The government army will be sent to suppress them, but weakly motivated conscripts will not be able to effectively resist the hardened thugs. If terrorists begin to gain victory after victory in clashes and skirmishes, the central government may stagger, losing its authority, and then terrorist cells across the country will raise their heads. Control over the situation can be lost in no time. And here reinforcements from Afghanistan can come to the rescue, acting in coordination with local radicals. In other words, 1000 militants are unable to defeat the regular army, let alone capture an entire country, but they can become that external factor that will shake the positions of the ruling regime.

It is due to the factors described above that we earlier came to the conclusionthat the most probable direction for external expansion may turn out to be Turkmenistan. These are the richest gas reserves, and access to the Caspian Sea with a weak army and a poor population, which may be in demand by the Islamists in the course of further state building. Unlike Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, where the Russian army is openly ready to help, Turkmenistan is not a member of the CSTO, adhering to the principle of maximum "neutrality". For organized gangs of militants from Afghanistan, he may be the easiest target. And Russia cannot allow this to happen.

Just imagine what the consequences could be if the ruling regime falls in Ashgabat, and young Taliban, ISIS or other bandits gain control over the Turkmen gas fields and enter the Caspian Sea? This is both a blow to Gazprom's business interests and a new geopolitical reality threatening Russia itself in its underbelly. There is only one conclusion: Moscow will have to intervene in the war in Central Asia, even if it does not want to at all. After the completion of military exercises, our border guards need to take control of the border with Afghanistan. If any breakthrough by organized gangs does take place, it will have to be suppressed according to "Syrian" patterns: strikes by the Russian Aerospace Forces and a ground operation in cooperation with its regional allies. It is quite possible that air and missile strikes will have to be launched against the "decision-making centers" even on the territory of Afghanistan itself, if active support of external aggression goes from there. Alas, we won't be able to sit on the sidelines.
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  1. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 26 July 2021 17: 14
    +1
    It's hard to say what will happen. One thing is for sure, we overslept this situation. After all, different types of ideas are stronger than force pressure. Central Asia repeats what it was under the Soviet Union. Personal enrichment in spite of safety.
    1. Kostyar Offline Kostyar
      Kostyar 26 July 2021 18: 12
      +5
      We didn’t oversleep, at first it was clear why the Americans set up this theater!
  2. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 26 July 2021 17: 52
    0
    will have to deliver air and missile strikes against the "decision-making centers" even on the territory of Afghanistan itself,

    And there is no other way! Because nothing was done to make it different. But I count from a year to four, we have time to prepare and change something. Then the US pro-finances and provocations will begin.
  3. komandir8 Offline komandir8
    komandir8 (Alexander) 26 July 2021 19: 06
    +3
    Turkmenistan supplies electricity to Afghanistan on a significant scale, and the Taliban are no longer what they were in the XNUMXs, and if something happens, Turkmenistan will ask for military assistance from Iran, Turkey and resolve the issue with the Taliban.
    1. Irina Sulimova Offline Irina Sulimova
      Irina Sulimova (Irina Sulimova) 27 July 2021 15: 22
      0
      Turkey and will resolve the issue with the Taliban. This is exactly what Turkey is waiting for, the scenario of Azerbaijan.
    2. Bitter Offline Bitter
      Bitter (Gleb) 27 July 2021 21: 17
      +1
      Well, yes, of course, Turkey will come - the order is everywhere. laughing laughing laughing
      In Turkmenistan, in Afghanistan, and at the same time in Ukraine? Undoubtedly, the Turkish army is well trained and well armed, but in this case there are real doubts that they will decide something there. Break off. And the Sultan does not have enough gold reserves. He has dug in in Syria, in Libya he provides maintenance for the fighters, in Azerbaijan he is probably counting gold in the "trenches" and covering the Greek border. Kurds also cannot be left unattended. The Taliban have a definite goal and some kind of Turkish "candidate for the Ottoman sultans" cannot prevent them from achieving it.

      ... the Taliban are no longer what they were ...

      Afghans are not the same either?
      There is an option that in the event of a complete victory, these very "sane Talibans", just like in the XNUMXs, will first of all cut off the heads of all their opponents, well, maybe they will arrange it a little "sane". There is no particular mental difference with the "igils" there, and there is nothing to flirt with.
  4. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
    Kofesan (Valery) 26 July 2021 20: 37
    -7
    Good comments. And the Taliban are not the same. And there is still time. And it is clear that everything was not accidental, but it was also very difficult to predict anything. Just like predicting now whether the Taliban will attack their neighbors or not.

    I’m thinking that it’s more likely no than yes. And there, how it will actually be - nobody knows anything, including Allah! There are too many "players". And how they will "play".

    What shhh! ... we'll see! What is it to us? In the sense: What is in our power?

    But popcorn is contraindicated for the "leaders" of Russians. Otherwise, it will lead to degradation of minds and remnants of authority, like Covid ...
    And they will turn into "dirt" from "princes". And quickly.
  5. 123 Online 123
    123 (123) 26 July 2021 20: 41
    -1
    Some kind of one-sided analytics ... an exclusively negative scenario is considered. If we go to extremes, then why not go to the other side?
    But what about the optimistic one? When a Turkmenbashi with a sword bald on a combat Alabai rushes into Kabul, it turns out that the Pashtuns are in fact Turkmen, they just misunderstood them. Weekly popular jubilation, naturally accompanied by contemptuous spitting towards NATO, over the accession of the new padishah to the Afghan throne. In the meantime, the people are celebrating, Miller is pulling a pipe to India.
    Or consider the basic option, which, although boring, is usually more realistic ... By the way, when will we have the next SCO summit there?

    It is quite possible that air and missile strikes will have to be launched against the "decision-making centers" even on the territory of Afghanistan itself, if active support of external aggression comes from there.

    In general, the invasion from the territory of Afghanistan is an external invasion. Or is the Taliban fleet (an organization that seems to be temporarily not completely banned) preparing a landing from the sea? What other support do you expect. And the decision-making centers ..., as far as I remember, they are located a little further.
  6. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
    Ulysses (Alexey) 26 July 2021 22: 24
    -1
    Russia continues to build up its military presence in Tajikistan. Two years ago, the S-300PS air defense missile system was deployed on the territory of this former Soviet republic, a year ago combat helicopters were deployed there, and now motorized riflemen will receive an additional 17 units of BPM-2M.

    The transfer of one airborne division will cover all this "build-up" like a bull to a sheep.
    There is a planned strengthening for specific tasks.
    Not related to the Taliban.

    Much is being said today about the potential military and terrorist threat emanating from Afghanistan.

    In the spring there was a lot of talk here about the inevitability of a military clash between Russia and the Kiev regime.
    Days and hours were counting down, whipping up a uniform hysteria.
    All with a finger to the sky ..

    At the same time, one should be aware that this group is far from united and monolithic in its views and goals. There is an older generation that, after 20 years of foreign intervention, finally achieved the complete withdrawal of the occupiers from the territory of their country. These people understand the need to take it under their control by 100% and legalize it in the eyes of the world community in order to gain international legal personality. And there is a younger generation that has only fought for the last 20 years and knows nothing but war and does not know how to do it. It is possible that immediately after the fall of Kabul, internal squabbles may begin inside Afghanistan.

    The Taliban defeat their opponents because they are much more monolithic than the same "Northern Alliance".
    And the relationship between the older and younger generation there clearly falls out of the European understanding of the author of the article.
    Shura (the governing body of the Taliban) uncles are tough, and they know how to keep youngsters in check.

    And without a military organization

    And there is a younger generation that has only fought for the last 20 years and knows nothing but war and does not know how to do it.

    ordinary cannon fodder, doomed to slaughter.
    PS Author, how many Pashtuns are fighting in the ISIS ranks?

    One should be aware that the situation in some Central Asian countries has long matured to the point of the need for some changes.

    These are definitely not our problems until the leadership of those countries matures to "some solutions." repeat
    Until the leadership of those countries has matured, there is no point in going into a "foreign monastery."

    It is due to the factors described above that we have come to the conclusion earlier that the most probable direction for external expansion may turn out to be Turkmenistan.

    The hydromedical center has come to a conclusion. lol
    Tomorrow the hydromedical center will explain (relying on "factors") why its yesterday's "factors" were unfulfilled.
    On the basis of new, sucked from the finger "factors". good
  7. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
    Ulysses (Alexey) 26 July 2021 22: 46
    0
    It is quite possible that air and missile strikes will have to be launched against the "decision-making centers" even on the territory of Afghanistan itself, if active support of external aggression comes from there. Alas, we won't be able to sit on the sidelines.

    The level of the author of the article is visible directly on the photo-splash screen.
    People really believe that the "decision-making centers" will be hit by "rooks" .. ??? belay

    Otherwise, why is the Su-25 in the photo.
    Front-line attack aircraft. request
  8. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 26 July 2021 23: 08
    -1
    the level of radicalization in Turkmenistan is moderate. It is probably too early to say that with a light breath the people will unanimously take up AK in the name of the Taliban's appeals. But there are most likely cells and possibly numerous. Another thing that must be understood - any such movements occur from outside, primarily finances. Who would want to radicalize Russia's southern direction now? The Saudis are unlikely, they are playing the oil gambit with us, although they are just the most dangerous in this regard. Turkey? maybe, but the risks of Russia's retaliatory actions here will not be comparable to the possible leverage on Russia, which Turkey would like to have. USA? They are somehow not in control, their allies will not understand who lost their soldiers at the request of the United States after 2001. And besides, the Taliban is not ISIS, they don't really need all this too much. I think Russia will not miss if it supplies the Taliban after the fall of Kabul, in return they will not allow other regulars into Afghanistan.
  9. aquarius580 Offline aquarius580
    aquarius580 27 July 2021 03: 17
    -5
    Didn't you agree with the Taliban? Marvelous. They are not Bendera
  10. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
    Kofesan (Valery) 27 July 2021 07: 24
    +1
    The Taliban are not as scary as they are portrayed. Expansion is not their strong point. And Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have not attracted Afghans since the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan. Even refugees. At one time, much more of these same Afghan "refugees" went to Iran, Pakistan and ... Europe. In numbers: millions versus several thousand.

    But as a springboard for "refugees" on the way to the EU, Central Asia is the very thing. The more illiterate Afghans cross the border with Lithuania (and father will help them), the better. And someday and not so "in the distant future" their "quantity" THERE will grow into "quality"

    And the German "Kagonate" and the Baltic "Caliphate" will appear in Europe. Gut!
  11. Potapov Offline Potapov
    Potapov (Valery) 27 July 2021 08: 31
    +2
    The center for making enemy decisions is one ...
  12. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 27 July 2021 09: 25
    +1
    There is only one conclusion: Moscow will have to intervene in the war in Central Asia, even if it does not want to at all.

    Second conclusion: China receives cheap gas from Turkmenistan and will not allow this gas to stop flowing to the PRC.
  13. Yakim Offline Yakim
    Yakim 27 July 2021 09: 28
    -1
    The Turkmen will not fight. We’re out of the habit. All will rush to the borders. The siloviki are already taking their families away from the Afghan border. Arkadag feeds Afghan Turkmen to be a buffer, but will it work? It should also be taken into account that China receives a lot of gas from Turkmenistan and very cheaply. Uncle Xi will not tolerate the Taliban in the hands of the pipeline. And as for the neutral status ... Everyone wanted to sneeze for this neutrality, and even more so the Taliban. Berdymukhammedov will have to forget about him. Turkmens will not fight the Taliban. Steel cowards. There is no army as such, only ceremonial companies. Most of the officers are not personnel. No radicalization and no dormant cells. The KNB works well, they sweep everyone in a row, even the beard arises questions. There remains hope for Russia and China.
  14. Igor Berg Offline Igor Berg
    Igor Berg (Igor Berg) 27 July 2021 15: 05
    -1
    Just imagine what the consequences could be if the ruling regime falls in Ashgabat.

    A good expression is the ruling regime. Not an elected government that is replaced in fair, transparent elections, but the regime. Well, half of the former republics of the USSR have regimes, including the largest republic.
    1. 123 Online 123
      123 (123) 27 July 2021 23: 15
      +1
      A good expression is the ruling regime. Not an elected government that is replaced in fair, transparent elections, but the regime. Well, half of the former republics of the USSR have regimes, including the largest republic.

      Again Liberda Svidomo groans? laughing Well, there will not be such results that you would like it. request Whimper in the corner and lie further .. This is all that remains for you.
  15. Put_NIK Offline Put_NIK
    Put_NIK (Andrey) 27 July 2021 16: 01
    0
    Americans do not just do anything. This conclusion was made by a specialist to repeat Syria only from a steep angle. Dushmans just sit idly by, they will not have already been paid for, and it is not just that they have been left with weapons that they never received by mail. They were armed to the teeth and have already shown their target - Russia. These frostbitten on their heads and stoned to zero will trample without hesitation and we will have to "grind" them 100% and the West will yell and cry accusing Russia of aggressiveness! If in Syria it was easy to grind the barmaley with rockets in open areas, then here are mountains and deep holes in them.
    Again, you will have to run in weapons for the mountains.
  16. Tektor Offline Tektor
    Tektor (Tektor) 27 July 2021 17: 01
    +1
    I am afraid that the decision-making centers in Afghanistan will need to be applied with charges with the Novice with the exact localization of the area of ​​destruction. Because war is a costly business, and you need to economize by using the most effective means of destruction.
  17. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 27 July 2021 18: 21
    0
    The consequences may be if the Russian Federation again gets involved in a new Afghan war and the consequences are extremely negative, and if the Islamists reach Kazakhstan, then the Russian Federation will receive a powerful ally in the person of China, in which Islamists are not welcomed.