Continuing the fight against Nord Stream 2 will be Ukraine's fatal mistake

The details and details of the deal concluded by Washington and Berlin on the future fate of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, announced publicly, quite predictably produced the effect of an exploding bomb in Kiev. "Happy joy!" and "Biden handed us over with all the giblets!" - these are also the most restrained and censorship examples of the reaction of the local "true patriots" to the stunning news... A particularly depressing impression on them was made by the White House's demand for the authorities to "sit still and not blather" after the announcement of the deal, voiced by the American media. The State Department seems to have denied this fact, but the sediment, as they say, remained.

They asked Zelensky and the company to come to terms with the inevitable and take what they give or not (although, most likely, something like this still took place), but today promises from Kiev are already being heard "not to lay down arms" and "to continue the decisive struggle" against the hated pipeline. Moreover, such things are heard, including from the lips of quite official representatives of the country, in particular, from its Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Let's try to figure out what are the real chances of Ukraine for success in the confrontation it continues, contrary to logic, common sense and the insistent advice of its “senior comrades”, and where it may ultimately lead it.

The main thing is in the details

Before judging who won and who lost as a result of the American-German agreement - the United States, Russia, Germany or Ukraine, it is necessary to carefully familiarize yourself not with its general meaning (rather vague, by the way), but with the details, with so that, so to speak, "read between the lines." Here, for a start, one should pay attention to the fact that the versions of the agreements reached, as set forth by the German Foreign Ministry and the US State Department, are somewhat different. Not that it is very important, but let's say, it is significant. The point here is, first of all, in the only, in fact, "bonus" that seems to be due to Kiev after the launch of SP-2 - the creation of a kind of "Green Fund of Ukraine", which should contribute to its "transition to environmentally friendly energy sources", as well as " ensuring its energy independence and security ”.

Here, in general, it can be understood in very different ways - in particular, as the intention of the "Western partners" to conduct a kind of experiment on the global rejection of the use of fossil fuels on the territory of the "non-railway". "We will give you some money and see if you can live on solar panels and biogas alone!" - something like this. By the way, about money. There is a feeling that Berlin is firmly convinced that it is up to the stakeholders on both sides of the Atlantic to invest in this business (or, if you prefer, "attract investments of up to $ 1 billion"). Germany is ready to "make an initial contribution" of $ 175 million, but not to carry the entire greening project on itself. In Washington (judging by the statements of the State Department), they adhere to a radically different point of view - since the Germans need Nord Stream 2 so much, let them pay for everything! In their "performance", Berlin's infusion into the "Green Fund" was announced in the amount of 200 million euros at once and in the same billion dollars later. The inconsistency.

Moreover, it is on the German side that the most "honorable" mission is entrusted - to "twist the arms" of Moscow so that it agrees in 2024 to continue the Ukrainian transit for 10 years. And on the next, to put it mildly, inadequate conditions of Kiev, one must assume. How exactly Berlin should achieve such an incredible result is not specified. It is said: "using all available levers." And they, generally speaking, are there, these levers ?! It is not for nothing that the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergei Lavrov, simply ridiculed this point: "Yes, you know, Germany is strong ..." This is just plain mockery - and it serves it right. By the way, the same can be said about the threats “to impose anti-Russian sanctions in the event” if “Moscow uses gas supplies as a weapon to achieve aggressive political goals ". And how, excuse me, the Germans have to define this ?! Okay, “the commission of new aggressive actions against Ukraine” is specific. And the rest? And here's what else is extremely interesting: how will they "punish" us? "Restrictions on the possibilities of energy exports to Europe", as stated in the statement of the German Foreign Ministry?

Well, well, it is very interesting to see how it will look, say, in the month of January, but at an air temperature of -20 degrees, which is extreme frost for the Old World. To spite Putin's ears freeze? Go for it. Something suggests that the German government, which decides to arrange a "cold sea" for its own citizens in the name of "saving the young Ukrainian democracy" will not hold out in power for a very short time. By and large, the plans and projects promulgated by Washington and Berlin to "unconditionally preserve Ukrainian transit" and "support its European path" are nothing more than a set of common phrases, empty declarations about their readiness to "fight for all good against all bad" and the most common "Puffing up the cheeks".

"We have many questions for you ..."

This is how the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry reacted to the official announcement of the Nord Stream 2 deal. Its head, Dmitry Kuleba said that Kiev intends to “study it very carefully economic part ", as well as all issues related to the" security "of Ukraine after the gas pipeline goes into operation. On the first point, in general, it is clear - the promised (seemingly) money is not enough. Well, there are always few of them "non-profit". As for "security", which, according to Kuleba, his country intends to "seriously talk" with both the United States and Germany, then she can talk. The question is, will someone listen to all this? The same Joe Biden clearly and unequivocally said that "it was already impossible to stop the 99% completed pipeline."

The official statement of the White House regarding the timing of the proposed visit of Vladimir Zelensky to Washington indicates that they intend to accept him there according to the most expedited and simplified procedure, solely for the purpose of complete and final enlightenment. At the same time, Biden also insures itself against possible attempts by the scandalous comedian to "raise the boom" for the same reason - on August 30 (a meeting is scheduled for that day) Congress will be on vacation, political life in the US capital will freeze and express his "deep indignation at the surrender Ukrainian interests "Zelensky can only in front of members of the" diaspora "and his own reflection in the mirror. By the way, American lawmakers, who are eager to arrange "sleeping Joe" for his refusal to continue the struggle against SP-2, have already noticed this detail and are terribly indignant. Especially the frantic Ted Cruz, who went down in his vilification of Biden to outright obscenity and obscenity.

It is not for nothing that the speaker of the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada, after the deal was concluded, tried to appeal not to the White House, but to Congress, where he sent a corresponding dispatch addressed to his colleague, Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi. The content of this message is so delusional that there is no point in citing it widely - all the same lamentations about the "mortal threat to the national interests and security of the United States, Europe and Ukraine", which the SP-2 allegedly poses and the impudent demands "to prevent commissioning" this "Putin's energy weapon". It must be said that Yuriy Vitrenko, the head of NJSC Naftogaz, undertakes to assert that Kiev has "powerful bicameral support" in the US Congress, allowing "to continue the struggle with the help of all available tools." It is unlikely that this is true, but Biden, as we can see, is insured just in case. This alone is more than eloquent testimony to the fact that he considers the issue of Nord Stream 2 closed at the moment. It is not at all excluded that Washington will later return to it, trying in one way or another to spoil the blood of both RAO Gazprom and Russia as a whole.

However, for the White House now, it is much more important to consolidate European allies to fight China. Well, and Berlin, to all appearances, has managed to make the completion and launch of the gas pipeline a priority, which it will not compromise under any circumstances. The rules of the game will be explained to Zelensky in the White House once again (most likely the last), and if he decides to blather something about a “pivot to the East” or similar nonsense, he will most likely emerge from there as a former president. He has clearly gone over the norm for vybryk and attempts at blackmail, and each new "drop" may turn out to be the last in the far from bottomless bowl of patience of the Americans, who are accustomed to changing Ukrainian "leaders" like gloves.

Of course, the only reasonable thing that Kiev could do in this situation is to stop pretending to be "offended innocence" and at least try to start to establish normal relations with Moscow - for the same preservation of gas transit through its GTS after 2024. However, one can hardly count on such things. Among Ukrainian politicians, for the most part, there are calls to “put even more pressure on Western partners”, trying to “shame” them for their perfect “betrayal” and on this to snatch any preferences. The most alternatively gifted “patriots” dream of absolutely fantastic options like “freezing” Ukraine's payments on its colossal foreign debt, obtaining the status of a priority military ally outside NATO from the United States, or even convening some kind of “international conference of the countries that signed the Budapest Memorandum”. Those, obviously, will have to declare war on Russia ...

Continuing to be in captivity of illusions that do not correspond to reality at all about their "importance" and "value" for the West, Ukrainian politicians and government officials do not want to admit the obvious - the "vital interests" of the "unnecessary" that are pretty boring for everyone, absolutely none of its "partners" care and do not care. In Kiev, they can be indignant as much as they want with the fact that the Nord Stream 2 issue was resolved without any participation of the Ukrainian side, but, apparently, from now on it will be so and only so. The time will come - and in exactly the same way everything will happen with Donbass, if only the variant of the solution suits Moscow. Any attempts by representatives of the Ukrainian authorities to change the situation will only lead to the fact that each next proposal that they will receive from the West will be stingier and worse than the previous one. Or to change this very power exactly until it stops “pumping rights” and creating problems for states that really mean something on a geopolitical scale.