US-Germany deal on Nord Stream 2 is dangerous for Russia

On the eve it became known that the United States and Germany were still able to reach some kind of compromise on the future fate of Nord Stream-2. The full text of the document has not yet been published, but the main theses brought to the general public already allow us to draw certain conclusions. Thus, the problems of the Russian-German gas pipeline artificially created by the American authorities, apparently, are coming to an end, which is undoubtedly good. But whether this can be considered a strategic victory for Russia is a big question.

Speaking before the profile committee of the Senate, the notorious Victoria Nuland announced the key points of the American-German deal.



First. Berlin undertakes to get Moscow to extend the agreement on gas transit through the Ukrainian GTS for another 10 years, that is, until 2034.

Second. The United States and Germany will help Ukraine diversify its energy supply sources, including through "green" energy, for which a special "green fund" will be created, to which Berlin is ready to immediately contribute $ 175 million.

The third. If Moscow tries to use the pipeline's operation as a means of pressure on Ukraine or other countries, Berlin will respond with sanctions on Russian gas supplies both at the national and European levels.

Domestic and foreign political scientists, various experts and analysts disagreed in their assessments of this agreement. Some consider it a "gift to Putin" and the defeat of Ukraine, which was not even allowed to negotiate, others - a defeat for Russia. Why is there such a discord, and who is really right, let's try to figure it out without unnecessary emotions.

First of all, I would like to summarize that this deal is between the United States and Germany, leading economic powers of the New and Old World, is a gross outrage against liberal Western values, which in these countries are considered almost a "sacred cow." Why Berlin is worried about the preservation of Ukrainian transit, this is understandable, but what does Washington have to do with it? Gazprom has obligations to continue deliveries through Nezalezhnaya for another 3,5 years, the state corporation itself signed up for this, but after obligations of this kind it does not have, and no one has the right to force it to do this. What about freedom of trade and entrepreneurship, your so-called liberal economic values, which you yourself impose on everyone, gentlemen, hypocrites from the White House? If this is what you are ready to send “100 thousand tons of American democracy” to foreign shores for, be consistent and follow your own principles.

It is clear that these are all lyrics, so let's get to the heart of the matter. Alas and ah, but the launch and start of operation of Nord Stream 2 cannot be called a full-fledged victory for Russia, rather, on the contrary, no matter how paradoxical it may sound. Let's remember why it was started in general. The "Northern" and "Turkish" streams were designed to bypass Ukraine, which after the events of 2014 became an openly hostile state to us. Instead of eliminating this threat at the root, our leadership chose to go the other way, building bypass pipelines. It was not said directly about this, but it was given to understand that, left without Russian gas, Nezalezhnaya would freeze and fall apart, and in general it would be possible to take it with bare hands later. Say, if we started hostilities somewhere near Kiev in 2014-2015, the gas transit would be interrupted, Gazprom would be fined for billions of dollars, and Russia would be subject to new sanctions. Indeed, there was a certain reason for this, although not indisputable. But have the bypass pipelines been able to solve this key problem over the past seven years, which allegedly was the main obstacle in the struggle for Ukraine?

It should be understood that people in Washington and Berlin are no worse than our geopoliticians, who perfectly understand all these simple plans. The American authorities, with their sanctions, delayed the construction of the gas pipeline as much as possible, showing that without them it is impossible to resolve the issue of starting its full-fledged operation. Freedom of trade and entrepreneurship? Ugh at her! Moscow, in turn, has demonstrated that the completion of Nord Stream 2 is a matter of principle, and it will see it through to the end at any cost. Germany, however, appears to have benefited most from this whole situation. She skillfully shifted all the problems with construction to Russia, and at the exit she will receive a brand new pipeline at the bottom of the Baltic in addition to the Ukrainian GTS. Yes, the Germans are not going to give up transit through Independent, since its functioning is a guarantee of the operation of the huge Ukrainian underground storage facilities, which Germany needs for the reliable passage of any heating season.

This alignment meant only one thing - the parties would have to look for some kind of compromise, and so they found it. Moreover, he turned out to be exactly like us and supposed the whole past year. Germany will seek from Russia to extend the transit agreement for another 10 years. In theory, of course, Gazprom may not agree, but is it possible in practice if the launch of Nord Stream 2 is directly linked to the new agreement between Moscow and Kiev? And President Putin has personally voiced his readiness to continue cooperating with Ukraine. This means that one can only argue about the volume of transit, but not about the transit itself. In other words, dependence on Independence will remain at least until 2034.

Go ahead. Alas, a simple plan to build bypass pipelines, and then either ruin and freeze, or seize Ukraine also fails miserably. Victoria Nuland bluntly stated that both Washington and Berlin itself would not allow the use of Nord Stream 2 to put pressure on Kiev. That is, we will not be able, relatively speaking, to launch alternative gas pipelines that will ensure the supply of "blue fuel" to Europe when the Ukrainian GTS is switched off or even more so destroyed, and to move troops to the Ukrainian capital and to the Dnieper. In response, Germany itself will cut off all pipelines for us, and Russia will find itself in an even worse position than it would have been in 2014. Then the question arises, why bother to fence this garden at all?

It turns out that the launch of Nord Stream 2 is both a victory and a strategic defeat for our country. Let us remind you that this is what we write for a whole year.