Libyan scenario in Afghanistan: Erdogan conceived a win-win combination


The United States and its allies withdrew their troops from Afghanistan ahead of schedule, leaving the puppet Kabul government to deal with the radical Islamist Taliban group (banned in the Russian Federation) on their own. However, this is not entirely true. Turkey is the only NATO member state that has left its military in the Afghan capital. But what is the "Sultan" counting on when Kabul is surrounded and besieged by the Taliban? Why does he himself expose his military to inevitable defeat from the militants and a humiliating flight with the last plane? How should all this be understood? Perhaps, on the contrary, it was the cunning Turkish president who outplayed everyone again?


Let's take another close look at the situation in Afghanistan. Yes, the Taliban are successfully moving forward, occupying the settlements left by foreign invaders and the government army. According to the radical Islamists themselves, they already control about 85% of the country's territory. Local security officials either defect, crossing the border of neighboring states, or surrender to the mercy of the victors. The fall of Kabul appears to be inevitable. But is it really so? The formal number of Taliban militants is estimated at 70 thousand people, but in reality, according to some sources, about 40 thousand are actively involved. This is enough to defeat the weakly motivated Kabul army in a specific theater of operations, but these forces will not be enough for subsequent control over the captured / liberated regions. To call a spade a spade, the success of the Taliban is mainly due to the fact that the diverse communities of Afghanistan simply do not offer them any resistance, accepting them as a local alternative to foreign invaders and collaborators. That is to say, wait and see. Where there is real resistance to the militants, they do not do so brilliantly. In some areas, the government army was even able to stop the offensive and regain control over some counties. Yes, on the whole, the prospects for official Kabul look extremely deplorable, and it certainly cannot resist on its own.

Unless a third force intervenes in the game. And she has already emerged. This is Turkey, which is in no hurry to withdraw its troops guarding the airport in the capital of Afghanistan. But what is the "Sultan" counting on? What game is Ankara trying to play?

Libyan script


Let's remember the trick that President Erdogan did in Libya quite recently. The army of Field Marshal Haftar was already at Tripoli, and everyone was counting the days when the Government of National Accord would fall. But it did not fall because Turkey intervened. Ankara entered into an agreement with Tripoli on military-technical cooperation and sent its fleet and army, as well as Syrian militants there. Backed from the rear by a professional Turkish army equipped with heavy weapons and aircraft, the alien bearded men were able to quickly drive away the local bearded men from the Libyan capital. In return, PNS Faiza Saraja signed a memorandum with Ankara on the delimitation of the continental shelf rich in hydrocarbons in the Eastern Mediterranean in favor of the savior of Turkey.

Now we are returning to Afghanistan. This country has long been of great interest to many external players because of its convenient strategic position, as well as a large amount of natural resources: copper, gold, oil, gas, uranium, lithium and other minerals. Also, the TAPI gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan and India should pass through its territory. From point of view economics and geopolitics Afghanistan is a pretty interesting place. And what can the "sultan" do this time?

Well, for example, he can conclude an agreement on military-technical cooperation with Kabul, which for the latter is a straw in front of a drowning man. One can imagine how enslaving the terms of the concessions will be, which will have to be signed by the Afghan authorities as gratitude for the salvation. Further, Turkey can transfer its military to Kabul, a heavy machinery, fighters and attack UAVs. The main hostilities, as in Libya, will also be conducted by militants from Syria. It makes no sense for the "sultan" to liberate all of Afghanistan, it is enough to show the Taliban the impossibility of taking Kabul by force, which means that they can gain full power in the country and legalize themselves in the international arena. That is, the Turks will only need to hold the capital and its environs, as was the case in Libya. As soon as the Taliban are convinced of the seriousness of Ankara's intentions and the impossibility of winning by military force, they can sit down at the negotiating table and reach some kind of agreement on the delimitation of spheres of influence, possibly on the creation of a transitional government with the participation of both sides under the supervision of Turkey.

Government in exile


The second option assumes that Turkey will not be able to keep Kabul, and the military will still have to evacuate it. The question is what will happen next with the Afghan authorities? The war is over, thank you all? No, not so fast. Well, would a cunning "sultan" let such an opportunity out of his hands? With a high degree of probability, it can be assumed that from the fallen Kabul, the official government will be evacuated to Turkey, where it will become the Afghan government in exile. And don't underestimate this geopolitical tool.

Let's say the Taliban took control of the entire country, established their own order and then began to expand the ideas of radical Islamism further, to neighboring Pakistan, China, Iran, and our Central Asia. And then Turkey, hosting the officially recognized UN government of Afghanistan in exile, objectively becomes the new center of the anti-Taliban coalition. Ankara will receive the full moral right to call all the former Soviet Central Asian republics for military-technical cooperation, updating the idea of ​​creating a united Turkic-speaking army "Great Turan". It is possible that Turkish military bases may appear in Uzbekistan and even in Pakistan, with which Turkey has recently developed the warmest relations.

If you look at it like that, then Ankara wins in any case, and "Sultan" Erdogan has the right to be considered one of the most effective geopoliticians of our time.
  • Author:
  • Photos used: Türk Silahlı Kuvvetleri (VOA) /wikimedia.org
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  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 19 July 2021 13: 14
    +3
    With a high degree of probability, it can be assumed that from the fallen Kabul, the official government will be evacuated to Turkey, where it will become the Afghan government in exile. And don't underestimate this geopolitical tool.

    Why didn't Russia appreciate such a geopolitical tool? Both President Yanukovych and former Prime Minister Azarov, and many other Ukrainian politicians are on the territory of Russia, but Russia does not seek to create such a government in exile, but, on the contrary, is successfully trading with the current Kiev regime, shelling the LPNR?
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 19 July 2021 15: 25
      +3
      A very good and correct question
  2. Cucumbers Offline Cucumbers
    Cucumbers (Cucumbers) 19 July 2021 20: 35
    +1
    Why is our great friend China silent? Is it because the silk belt will go through Afghanistan and through Turkey. Erdogan has a shortcut from an old man and a friendship with a hockey player. Russian interests on the side
    1. Tourist Offline Tourist
      Tourist (tourist) 20 July 2021 12: 44
      +1
      there is no "our great friend China".

      The Taliban said they would welcome China's participation in the reconstruction of Afghanistan

      The Taliban movement (banned in Russia) considers the PRC a friend of Afghanistan and hopes for early negotiations with Beijing on its assistance in rebuilding the country, Taliban spokesman Suhail Shahin told the South China Morning Post.

      "(Our representatives - IF) have been to China many times, and we have good relations with it. China is a friendly country whose participation in the reconstruction and development of Afghanistan we welcome," he said.

      According to him, the Taliban now control 85% of the territory of Afghanistan, and the movement will guarantee the safety of China's investments (!!!) and the safety of Chinese workers (!!!).

      At the same time, he assured that the Taliban would not allow Uighur separatists, some of whom had sought refuge in Afghanistan, to settle there. Shahin recalled that the Taliban, within the framework of the agreements with the United States of February 2020, will not allow any foreign group to use the territory of Afghanistan to prepare attacks abroad (!).

      He stressed that the presence of the Al-Qaeda group (banned in the Russian Federation) is "in the past," and the Taliban will not allow it to operate in Afghanistan any longer. Shahin noted that the presence of this group in the country is a legacy of the times of Afghan President Burhanuddin Rabbani, whose government fell after the Taliban seized Kabul in 1996.

      “We allowed (al-Qaeda - IF) to stay in Afghanistan because they had no place in any other country,” he said, adding that there are currently no members of this group in Afghanistan.

      The Taliban movement has gradually strengthened its positions in various Afghan provinces in recent months. This is taking place against the backdrop of the withdrawal of US forces and their partners from Afghanistan.

      The South China Morning Post recalls the well-known US intelligence findings that the Afghan government could collapse within six months of the American withdrawal.

      Meanwhile, the newspaper points out, Afghanistan has the world's largest undiscovered reserves of copper, coal, iron, gas, cobalt, mercury, gold, lithium and thorium, worth up to $ 1 trillion. Earlier, Chinese firms received the right to develop copper deposits in the Logar province (!).

      https://interfax.by/news/policy/v_mire/1299564/
  3. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
    Kofesan (Valery) 19 July 2021 21: 36
    +1
    Article plus. An interesting interpretation of our popular proverb (And by the way, it is quite reasonable and with real facts, as well as the position of Erdogan, already supported by the United States). And the proverb is this:

    Whoever dared, he ate

    But it's too early to write off China. They do not participate in hot spots, but ... they penetrate everywhere ..., which is reflected in production

    ... steel - China - ... billion tons per year, USA - 70 million tons per year;
    - Concrete - China - over 2,5 billion tons per year, USA - about 80 million tons;
    - Agriculture - China - about 4 times more than in the United States;
    - Cars - China - 26 million cars a year, USA - 11 million cars a year;
    - Consumer goods - for any position the United States does not even stand next to China;
    - Shipbuilding - China - 60% of world capacity - USA - 4%
    - Construction - China is 10 times larger than the United States

    What if China works with the Taliban without Kabul at all ???
    That is, they generally do not recognize Erdogan's authority with Pakistan ??? They will lock him up in Kabul and he will die of hunger there himself ???

    In short, too many ifs ...
    1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
      Ulysses (Alexey) 19 July 2021 21: 52
      -2
      Marzhetskiy has interesting articles, which are a plus.
      The trouble is when a person tries to embrace the immensity.
      Sucking the article literally out of the thumb.
      It turns out such nonsense that the refutation of nonsense, speculation and elementary ignorance of the situation will pull you into a full-fledged article.
      This is the case. sad
      1. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
        Kofesan (Valery) 19 July 2021 22: 11
        +3
        Why dwell on a specific surname? Now, no one has offended me enough to write about him! Even if banned, ugh, ugh, ugh, of course. Just think ... "business" then!

        As for a specific article, or even authors, then truth is born in disputes, if, of course, these disputes are correct. Sometimes, after all, you see that it is a "blizzard", but you are silent. After all, man worked as best he could! And "we" him - pissing rags ... So who, then, is better? "We" or "He"?
        1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
          Marzhecki (Sergei) 20 July 2021 07: 46
          +5
          Thank you for your very correct comment. In my personal opinion, if someone does not agree with the author, then it should be written something like this: I do not agree with the author, because ... and then there is a list of arguments to which the author, if desired, can answer with his counterarguments. Then a kind of discussion turns out, during which the truth can be born.
          hi
          But when a commentator considers himself a priori smarter than everyone else, then nothing good except a noble Wed..h will work. In general, I prefer not to get involved, because this is a waste of time and nerves, absolutely in vain. But, alas, sometimes you still have to ...
      2. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
        Marzhecki (Sergei) 20 July 2021 07: 41
        +2
        You know, over the past 3,5 years of my work at the Reporter, this is not the first time I have seen such assessments of my articles. But for some reason then most of my predictions come true, to the surprise of the "experts". smile It is possible that this that case wink
  4. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
    Ulysses (Alexey) 19 July 2021 22: 33
    +2
    How should all this be understood? Perhaps, on the contrary, it was the cunning Turkish president who outplayed everyone again?

    Erdogan has done another stupid thing, although after Syria and Libya I am no longer surprised by anything.
    Of course, he does not feel sorry for his askers. Turkish women still give birth.
    However, to climb so far without normal logistics already quite stupid.

    The fall of Kabul appears to be inevitable. But is it really so?

    Without options.
    The city will be commissioned.

    This is enough to defeat the weakly motivated Kabul army in a specific theater of operations, but these forces will not be enough for subsequent control over the captured / liberated regions.

    You have forgotten that the Taliban are Pashtuns for the most part.
    Not invaders, but local ones.
    To control the territory, the local "militia" is enough, absolutely loyal to your alleged "invaders".

    ... Further, Turkey can transfer its military, heavy equipment, fighters and attack UAVs to Kabul. The main hostilities, as in Libya, will also be conducted by militants from Syria.

    Here it becomes quite interesting ...
    How and how will Turkey transfer all this army to Kabul ??
    The United States with logistics was overwhelmed by the presence of Bagram (which has already been lost).
    You represent the landing of a heavy transport at the Kabul airport when the Taliban control the nearest roller coasters ??

    Watch this video, maybe you will start to understand something first ..



    PS Further it is too lazy to comment ..
    The case when you want to advise the author, "less is better, but better."
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 20 July 2021 07: 52
      +1
      You have forgotten that the Taliban are Pashtuns for the most part.
      Not invaders, but local ones.
      To control the territory, the local "militia" is enough, absolutely loyal to your alleged "invaders".

      I have not forgotten anything, and I called them invaders through a slash with the liberators. But you chose not to notice it, right? And there, in Afghanistan, not only Pashtuns live, but also Turkic-speaking peoples, whom Erdogan protects.

      Here it becomes quite interesting ...
      How and how will Turkey transfer all this army to Kabul ??
      The United States with logistics was overwhelmed by the presence of Bagram (which has already been lost).
      Can you imagine the landing of a heavy transporter at the Kabul airport while the Taliban control the nearest hills ??
      Watch this video, maybe you will start to understand something first ..

      I will just remind you that six months ago the Turks very successfully helped the Azerbaijanis to win in exactly the same slides.

      Erdogan has done another stupid thing, although after Syria and Libya I am no longer surprised by anything.

      Very controversial assessment of Erdogan's actions in Syria and Libya. There he just achieved all his goals.
      1. Sergio S Offline Sergio S
        Sergio S (Sergio C) 20 July 2021 15: 57
        +3
        They say the case, criticizing your analytics - logistics is the head.
        Libya is the sea. Azerbaijan is a border state. It's simple.
        However, there is a serious bummer in Syria - albeit the sea and the border state. But the trouble is - two powerful players are playing against (more precisely, purely for their own interests). + there is no support among the population.
        Afghanistan is definitely too tough, especially Turkey. There is no border, no loyal border states. There is no one to start from at all.
        The Taliban also expressed an irreconcilable position towards the Turks.
        Unless there is a secret ally - by no means - this is definitely not Pakistan. Rather, the United States is in the dark, hiding behind in connection with the internal agenda. As long as the asset is of at least some value, and you claim it, the United States will never, under any circumstances, release it. Moreover, they will not "give".
        There is no doubt that someone is seriously feeding the Taliban (financially). Obviously, the forces are much more than 40 thousand (not only bayonets). Curious to know - who?
      2. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
        Ulysses (Alexey) 20 July 2021 19: 43
        +4
        I have not forgotten anything, and I called them invaders through a slash with the liberators.

        You either take off your panties, or put on a cross.
        Invaders-Liberators new rubbish for complete idiots?

        I will just remind you that six months ago the Turks very successfully helped the Azerbaijanis to win in exactly the same slides.

        I dare say that the slides and logistics and the enemy were completely different.

        Very controversial assessment of Erdogan's actions in Syria and Libya. There he just achieved all his goals.

        Uh-huh.
        Idlib prisoners in Syria will take Damascus tomorrow (okay, at least Aleppo), and Marshal Haftar has already fled to Cairo in search of political asylum ??
        There is no need to be the mouthpiece of Turkish propaganda here.

        PS The only chance for Erdogan to somehow designate his presence in Afghanistan is direct negotiations with the Taliban.
        However, the Taliban have already expressed their opinion. The Turks must get out of the foreign land.
        And I do not see any points of contact between the Turks and the Taliban.
  5. Bond Offline Bond
    Bond (bond) 20 July 2021 02: 14
    +1
    Before the Turks, all the actions described were performed by the United States for many years. We now see the result .... What is this writing for?
    1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
      Ulysses (Alexey) 21 July 2021 22: 50
      0
      Before the Turks, all the actions described were performed by the United States for many years. We now see the result .... What is this writing for?

      Scribble was ignored by the majority as complete nonsense.
  6. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 20 July 2021 07: 37
    +1
    Quote: Bond
    Before the Turks, all the actions described were performed by the United States for many years. We now see the result .... What is this writing for?

    And what is your writing in the commentary for?
  7. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 20 July 2021 07: 39
    0
    Quote: Ulysses
    PS Further it is too lazy to comment ..
    The case when you want to advise the author, "less is better, but better."

    Thanks for the advice, but overkill. Time will tell who was right.
    1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
      Ulysses (Alexey) 20 July 2021 19: 45
      +1
      Thanks for the advice, but overkill. Time will tell who was right.

      If time shows that you are wrong, will you be ready to publicly apologize here?
  8. PokerFace Offline PokerFace
    PokerFace (Kirill) 22 July 2021 01: 15
    +1
    Turkish military bases in Uzbekistan? Three haha. There was a short rapprochement with Turkey (education, trade, production) in the 90s, it quickly developed, it curtailed even faster. Can you guess why? And nobody wants to repeat.