Revolution in Cuba will be a dangerous geopolitical defeat for Russia

The protest demonstrations that swept the Island of Liberty over the weekend received the widest coverage both in the world and in the domestic media. No wonder - for the West, the “fall of the communist regime” in this small country, which does not want to submit to the unprecedented pressure exerted on it, is, one might say, a cherished dream. For Russia, such a prospect would be an extremely unpleasant and dangerous geopolitical defeat, which could more than significantly weaken the position of our country throughout Latin America.

As usual in such cases, the opinions of the commentators of what was happening were initially divided to the exact opposite. Western media portrayed the Cuban events as a story of a "spontaneous explosion of popular anger" that was "inevitable due to power failures" and the "wrong ideology" that reigns on the island to this day. Those who try to maintain at least a minimum of objectivity, if they do not speak directly about foreign interference, then at least do not deny its possibility in this case. So what is in front of us - "the uprising of the Cubans against the communist tyranny" or an attempt by the United States to arrange a classic "color revolution" according to a typical scenario?

Objective reasons and subjective reasons

It is, of course, fundamentally wrong to assert that the Cubans did not have any reasons for dissatisfaction with life, and could not be. Things on the island really are far from the best, and recently the situation has worsened significantly. The point here is not least of all that the blow received from the coronavirus pandemic and so far from the blooming local the economy, is felt much stronger in Cuba than in most other countries. The reason is that tourism is the backbone of the national prosperity of Liberty Island, which has been gripped for 60 years in the grip of the most severe sanctions initiated by the United States. It is he who traditionally provides a country in which, according to available estimates, up to 80% of the goods consumed by the population have to be imported from abroad, the inflow of foreign currency necessary for export purchases. Well, what kind of tourists during the global quarantine period?

It is quite natural that the country has recently experienced a noticeable shortage of consumer goods and even food. An accident at one of the largest local power plants added fuel to the fire, leaving a number of settlements without electricity during the hellish heat. But as for the "problems with the coronavirus" and the accusations against the government of inability to cope with the situation, then everything is much more complicated. In order to understand what the essence is, it is high time for us to move from considering the really objective difficulties that Cuba is facing today, to those subjective reasons that these very difficulties have. It will be quite easy to name them due to the fact that they have a very specific and well-known source.

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel blamed the United States for everything from the start. At the same time, he not only called those who took to the streets "counter-revolutionary mercenaries who sold themselves to the American empire", but also pointed out directly that the economic troubles, the presence of which he did not even think to deny, were provoked primarily by that "policies suppression ", which the United States is carrying out against the state it heads and which has noticeably intensified lately. According to Diaz-Canel, the 1994% drop in the Cuban economy in 2020, unprecedented since the 11 crisis, was primarily caused by US sanctions, and secondly, by the coronavirus pandemic.

As for, in fact, the fight against the disease, then external factors also play a role. The situation with COVID-19 in the country cannot be called "catastrophic" or "critical". The speculation fanned by some media about the "outbreak of an infection that has gotten out of control" is untrue. A little more than one and a half thousand people died from the coronavirus on the island, which is a very low figure in comparison with other Latin American countries (about 190 thousand people died in Peru, 112 thousand in Colombia, and 33 thousand in Chile). Moreover, it was Cuban doctors and pharmacists who were the only ones in the Latin American region to develop their own coronavirus vaccine. "On the way", according to local scientists, four more. Certain problems with the mass vaccination of the inhabitants of the island are connected precisely with the fact that Cuba, even with all its desire, could not use imported drugs, even the Russian "Sputnik", which our country would provide it without problems. And the reason is still the same - the American blockade, because of which Liberty Island continues to exist in the regime of a besieged fortress.

Everything goes according to plan?

The fact that strangling the Cuban revolution and returning the country to the status of a US colony has been Washington's goal since the victory of Fidel Castro and his supporters, no one has ever even tried to hide. In the United States, presidents, administrations, and the composition of Congress changed, but with all this, one thing remained unchanged - the pathological hatred of Liberty Island. Numerous attempts to physically eliminate the leaders of the state and the party, the training of militant detachments from among the local counter-revolutionary emigrants, which ended in a shameful landing in the Bay of Pigs, repeated threats of direct military intervention, which resulted, among other things, in the ever-memorable "Caribbean Crisis" more than half a century. After a direct confrontation with the USSR, which almost turned into World War III, the Americans swore to threaten Havana with military force, but they did not think to weaken the economic "stranglehold" on its throat.

During the Soviet era, Moscow was forced to almost completely provide its overseas allies and friends with everything they needed. After its collapse in 1991, it seemed that Cuba, left without a powerful and generous "elder brother", was doomed. In 1994, when it became clear that the then rulers of Russia did not intend to help her at all, the first unrest of an anti-government and anti-communist nature swept through the Island of Liberty. Who was behind them, there was no doubt either then or now. However, at that time the legendary Fidel was still alive and the riots were suppressed with an iron fist. The United States realized that it was necessary to "push a little more" and strengthened the anti-Cuban sanctions, waiting in the wings. Relations between Washington and Havana escalated with particular force after the failure of the "color revolution" in Venezuela, on which the Americans had pinned great hopes.

It is quite obvious that the legitimate president of this country, Nicolas Maduro and his supporters were able to keep the situation under control, not least thanks to the assistance provided to them by their Cuban comrades. This caused a new wave of anger and hatred in the United States - during the presidency of Donald Trump, sanctions and restrictions rained down on Havana like a cornucopia. Today, White House spokesman Jane Psaki hypocritically declares that "all accusations against the United States regarding their involvement in the Cuban events are unfounded." Well, Psaki knows what kind of bird ...

She has such an unenviable share - without blushing to deny the obvious. Not involved ?! Why, then, did US President Joe Biden personally declare his "ardent support" for the Cuban "Maidan" people? Why his national security adviser Jake Sullivan and other Washington officials allow themselves to openly threaten Havana, demanding that it give the country to the power of the "Maidan" and "not use force against peaceful demonstrators." Thus, on July 11, they smashed grocery stores with might and main and threw stones at the police, trying their best to provoke them to the most tough opposition. And how do you order to assess the public speech of the Mayor of Miami Francis Suarez, who openly called on Biden "to send the US army to Cuba as soon as possible"? Also like "laissez-faire"? Generally speaking, talk of "humanitarian intervention" that the Pentagon should carry out "to save Cuban democracy" is getting louder in the United States. It is very likely that everything is going according to a previously prepared and now implemented in a "step-by-step" plan, which could have been born exclusively in the bowels of such "offices" as the CIA and others similar to it in their functions.

Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez, who just yesterday made official accusations against the US authorities in an attempt to organize a "color revolution" on the island, most likely did not sin in the least against the truth. Too many facts testify to the fact that this is the case in reality. The mere fact that "spontaneous protests" somehow broke out too simultaneously in many settlements located in completely different parts of the country, suggests their preliminary preparation and precise coordination. As well as the presence in the ranks of the "protesters" of persons who waved the flags of the United States. Also typical is the tactics used by the Cuban "Maidan" - organizing maximum chaos on the streets of cities, escalating violence and provoking the "siloviki" in order to obtain "sacred victims", which could later be used as a "banner" in the "fight against the regime. ". American coup d'état specialists cannot offer their clients anything new - so they use long-established schemes. According to the information available at the moment, the Cuban Interior Ministry admitted the death of one of the rioters, who was part of a group that tried to attack a "government facility" in the suburbs of Havana. The first blood has been spilled.

At the same time, there is every reason to hope that the Cuban "Maidan" will not advance beyond the only attempt that failed. Today, the situation in the country is controlled not only by the "siloviki", but also by adherents of the current government, local communists, whom the Cuban President called on "to take to the streets to defend the revolution." Miguel Diaz-Canel said that the defenders of the constitutional order and independence of Cuba "are ready to fight" and to seize power "American counter-revolutionary hirelings will have to step over their corpses." It is said strongly, but it would be better if it did not come to this. Russia, China and Iran have already expressed support for the legitimate authorities of Liberty Island and warned the United States administration against any action aimed at directly interfering in its internal affairs. It would be good if Washington, whose representatives so far continue to bend their line on "supporting Cuban democracy", would hear these words. Then there will be a chance that the events in Cuba will not develop into a fire, which our country will have to “extinguish”.
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  1. Zhenya Gurdjieff (Zhenya Gurdjieff) 15 July 2021 09: 49
    The United States took up Cuba because of the threat of Russian bases there:

    That says it all
    1. Observer2014 Offline Observer2014
      Observer2014 15 July 2021 20: 19
      What? What bases? Russian. Podkop? laughing
    2. Sergey-54 Offline Sergey-54
      Sergey-54 (Sergei) 20 July 2021 18: 08
      ... or exchange Cuba for Ukraine.
  2. Valentine Online Valentine
    Valentine (Valentin) 15 July 2021 10: 11
    Russia urgently needs to negotiate with the Cuban leadership on the creation of its military bases on its territory, up to YARS, Voevod and strategic aviation, and then the Americans will devour it .... We have already lost a lot of our military bases because of Gorbachev's scum and Yeltsin, and all this is only to please Washington, so there is nothing to be stingy about, this is geopolitics, and it requires investments, and not small ones, and the Yankees will immediately calm down, and this should have been done the day before yesterday.
    1. Observer2014 Offline Observer2014
      Observer2014 15 July 2021 20: 20
      We lost Cuba forever when the debt of 25 lard was forgiven.
  3. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 15 July 2021 10: 18
    Certain problems with the mass vaccination of the inhabitants of the island are connected precisely with the fact that Cuba, even with all its desire, could not use imported drugs, even the Russian "Sputnik", which our country would provide it without problems. And the reason is still the same - the American blockade, because of which Liberty Island continues to exist in the regime of a besieged fortress.

    Are the Americans shooting down foreign planes or arresting ships going to Cuba?
    If Russia does not hurry up in Cuba, then China will join.
  4. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 15 July 2021 10: 53
    Poverty and incapacity of the authorities are the main reasons for discontent. The Cuban authorities even attribute Russia to the representatives of the hostile camp of capitalism, accepting only profitable handouts. China is also considered to be almost an enemy. And without at least situational allies - they are khan. I think their protests will not teach them anything. There are some stoned ...
    1. Dukhskrepny Offline Dukhskrepny
      Dukhskrepny (Vasya) 15 July 2021 13: 24
      Zaputinets delirium
  5. Igor Berg Offline Igor Berg
    Igor Berg (Igor Berg) 15 July 2021 15: 39
    And why should we, a developed capitalist country with the supremacy and domination of private capital, have communist Cuba suddenly become a class friend?
  6. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 15 July 2021 17: 15
    No wonder - for the West, the "fall of the communist regime" in this small country, which does not want to submit to the unprecedented pressure exerted on it, is, one might say, a cherished dream.

    Once it was so, but after the collapse of the USSR, Cuba is perceived as an incident, absurdity, anachronism. No one has long dreamed of breaking the local regime; it has become a laughing stock, an example of idiocy, just like the Venezuelan one. The Cubans themselves already understand this. The only problem is whether he can reform or make a massacre. Cubans want change and do not want pogroms and shocks while still perceiving the system as their own.
    1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
      Bulanov (Vladimir) 16 July 2021 08: 51
      but after the collapse of the USSR, Cuba is perceived as an incident, an absurdity, an anachronism.

      Is communist China also an absurdity, an anachronism?
      1. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
        Alexzn (Alexander) 16 July 2021 14: 26
        Are you serious? Did you manage to find something communist in the PRC besides the Communist Party and words?
        In the PRC, typical capitalism (+ state capitalism) with a high role of the state in managing the economy.
        1. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
          Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 18 July 2021 11: 10
          The state is a political organization of the ruling class, of which at all times there are only two - the oppressors and the oppressed, which include the so-called. "Stratum" - the servants of the oppressors from among the oppressed.
          Capitalist state capitalism is that big capital stands above the state, which is only an instrument for promoting its interests and protecting property.
          This means that big business, its leading grouping, actually buys the government through various financing schemes for one or another political party, organization, etc. "Independent". Formally, it looks like a democratic choice of the population, but only formally. Who pays, the interests of the government formed by the results of the elections and defends.
          The PRC of the Mao period stepped on the same rake as the USSR and many other formally socialist countries - 100% socialization of the productive forces led to the separation of economic policy from the needs of the population, deficit, widespread corruption, the formation of an untouchable caste, a decline in productive forces, economic defeat in competition with capitalism and a coup.
          With the beginning of Deng Xiaoping's reforms, the PRC returned to the basic Leninist principles of building socialism - it stimulates initiative and creates conditions for personal enrichment, supports the development of entrepreneurship and an increase in the number of hired workers (proletarians), but this is done under the control of the Communist Party and the state of entrepreneurship, trade, money circulation (a reason to accuse China of currency manipulation), lending, taxation, pricing, etc., in the interests of the state and the people. How successful is the statistics and the standard of living of the population.
          The difference is that in the PRC the state controls and manages capitalists, who are more numerous than the United States, and not vice versa. This is the fundamental difference between socialist state capitalism and classical Western one. State capitalism in the Russian Federation has no reliance on the party and the dictatorship of the proletariat, as in the PRC, and this creates the preconditions for big capital to get out of state control.
  7. Radziminsky Victor (Radziminsky Victor) 15 July 2021 21: 21
    And the coup-revolution in Ukraine - did not become a strategic defeat for Russia?
    Only Cuba is far away. And Ukraine is right inside Russia. And it will blow up Russia - from the inside.
    Russia now has a "Ukrainian front", a "Central Asian front" and a "Caucasian front".
    Is it too much?
    And the "Cuban front" - Russia is unlikely to withstand.
    And the USA - they eat Cuba - for dessert. Without even chewing.
    And the United States will not have a "Cuban front". Simply - the Cuban avacado is ripe.
    1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
      Ulysses (Alexey) 15 July 2021 23: 42
      Russia now has a "Ukrainian front", a "Central Asian front" and a "Caucasian front".
      Is it too much?

      All sorts of "fronts" for Russia usually produce the next blunt "cyber warriors" of the famous Baltic center.
      Russia has national interests.
      How and in what form to solve them is up to the Russian leadership.
  8. Let them fight back - we'll throw cartridges for them!
    1. Observer2014 Offline Observer2014
      Observer2014 15 July 2021 23: 17
      Don't be stars. You're lying as always .. yes
  9. Vladimir Alekseevich (Vladimir) 16 July 2021 11: 29
    All this is the consequences of foolishness in the foreign and domestic policy of our state. Lose so many allies, and now try to find new ones! It's just not clear how so much shit surfaced in the USSR?
  10. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 17 July 2021 09: 07
    There are no uprisings just like that, there must be reasons for everything, and the main one is the aggravation of the needs of the population, which always leads to an increase in its activity, especially in the long-standing expectations of establishing relations with the Sshasovites.
    The very fact of social unrest speaks of the accumulated problems and the inability of the authorities to solve them.
    In the absence of a political party capable of leading the protests and taking power into its own hands, social unrest is likely to be suppressed.
    The question is whether the authorities will make the right conclusions and what steps they will take.
  11. Anna Tim Offline Anna Tim
    Anna Tim (Anna) 21 July 2021 11: 17
    If Russia misses Cuba this time too, it would be a fatal mistake.