The alliance of Russia and Germany was able to defeat the expansion of American LNG in Europe

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After almost seven years of continuous ordeals, it can be summarized that policy the replacement of Ukrainian gas transit by other routes has begun to yield definite results. If earlier the US-loyal bureaucrats in Brussels attacked the domestic monopolist with accusations that Gazprom supplies too much gas to the EU, now Russia is accused of pumping too little gas to Europe. Amazing inconsistency!

It would be more correct to say this: Gazprom is trying to avoid increasing pumping through the Ukrainian GTS and through Belarus and Poland, and through all bypass pipelines - please. All this is a direct consequence of the struggle for the EU energy market between two groups, where on the one hand Berlin and Moscow are in the alliance, on the other - Washington, Warsaw, Kiev and the Baltic limitrophes. Until now, the second union was leading on points, but now the score on the scoreboard has leveled off. And how did it happen?



Ukraine has always been a difficult partner for Russia in the gas issue, and after 2014 it became completely unbearable. The sad experience of the two "gas wars" forced Moscow to start building alternative trunk pipelines - Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream. After Washington received the keys to Kiev, it also had a powerful lever of pressure on the Kremlin. His plan to seize a share in the European market looked quite simple, but very effective: first, to prepare the export infrastructure in the United States and LNG receiving terminals in Europe, and then to arrange an energy crisis in the Old World, forcing Ukraine to cut off Russian gas transit. This would immediately lead to an increase in prices per cubic meter, which would make American LNG, which must be delivered across the ocean at a mass of additional costs, competitive with the pipeline, and Gazprom would incur huge fines in front of European consumers. And, it should be noted that the United States has made significant progress in implementing its expansionist plans. LNG terminals have been built along the entire EU coast, bridges have been created between the leading EU countries, uniting them into a common gas transportation system. Currently, Washington is in favor of a new integration project "Trimorie", within the framework of which, under the auspices of Warsaw, a virtually new trunk distribution system is to be built from Poland to Croatia, vertically from north to south of Europe. Naturally, all this is tailored for the reception of American LNG.

However, reality has made significant adjustments to this harmonious plan:

At first, in 2020, the whole world was suddenly hit by the coronavirus pandemic. Due to widespread lockdowns, consumer demand, industrial production and energy consumption have dramatically decreased. Accordingly, the prices for oil and gas also fell. Oil quotes generally broke through the bottom, showing negative values ​​for the first time, and gas on the stock exchanges began to cost a penny. This dealt a heavy blow to the US LNG industry, leading to the closure of some existing projects and the freezing of new ones.

Secondly, after COVID-19, another "black swan" flew in. The winter of 2020-2021 turned out to be unusually frosty against the background of the abnormally warm previous one. Both Europe and Asia were frozen equally. Underground gas storage facilities are half empty as the Europeans had to burn large quantities of "blue fuel" for heating. But filling them in is now problematic. The beginning of 2021 was marked by a recovery in industrial growth in the Asia-Pacific region, where LNG consumption increased, and its price became higher than in the EU, and therefore its surviving producers sent their tankers there. In the Old World, a thousand cubic meters now cost more than $ 400, but there is still not enough gas.

Thirdly, Gazprom has almost completed its epic with the construction of bypass pipelines around Ukraine. Thus, according to President Putin, the first string of Nord Stream 2 has been completed, through which gas can go to Europe this fall. Currently, its second line is being completed. On the territory of the EU, the construction of a bridge between the transit line of the Turkish Stream, connecting Serbia with Hungary, has also been completed. Already from October 1, up to 15,75 billion cubic meters of gas can flow through it. From Hungary, it will soon be possible to connect the pipeline with the famous hub in Austria, from where the "blue fuel" will be distributed to other European countries.

This means that Gazprom's bypass infrastructure is technically almost completely ready. Why workaround? Because the domestic monopolist is actively taking advantage of the right moment and refuses to increase the volume of pumping in the EU. All they could persuade him to do was an additional 15 million cubic meters per day. Winter is close, and the UGS facility needs to be filled with something right now. At the same time, surprisingly, problems suddenly arose with the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline near Warsaw. The principled Danes arranged a "green attack" for the Polish pipeline, which is to become an important part of the country's energy independence system. Behind these events it is easy to see the "hand of Berlin", which, to put it mildly, is not interested in the economic and political rise of Poland. Moscow also announced its plans to radically reduce gas pumping through Belarus and Poland via the Yamal-Europe pipeline.

In other words, Russia and Germany jointly retaliated against the US LNG initiative. Having screwed on the transit valve, Gazprom is waiting for European consumers to force Brussels to issue all the certificates and permits necessary to start Nord Stream 2 operation. And, apparently, it has a good chance to wait for this, unless, of course, another "black swan" arrives. As for the Ukrainian direction, Gazprom will not completely abandon it. Maintaining balancing supplies for the stable operation of Ukrainian UGS facilities is a mandatory requirement of Berlin. Germany needs them as reserves for maximum diversification of the sources of supply for its energy system. The only intrigue is what volumes will go through Nezalezhnaya after 2024: 15, 20, 25 or 40 billion cubic meters per year? Also, a fundamental question remains, who exactly will own and manage the dilapidated Ukrainian GTS, and, consequently, bear the burden of its repair and maintenance.
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  1. +2
    7 July 2021 17: 08
    Why is Greta our Thunberg silent?
    But how well I started ... I even started a kid, with all the clumsy ... And fame and loot, and prynts are right there ...
  2. 0
    21 July 2021 12: 26
    The growth in gas production in the world is outstripping the growth in its consumption. The gas market is very dynamic and everything changes very quickly. There was gas at both 240 and 120. In Asia, it seems, and 1000. Everything flows and everything changes. And to assert that something is categorically naive. Competition and competition is what will determine the market.