Ban on transit through Belarus: Minsk is trying to blackmail not so much Berlin as Moscow

President Lukashenko decided to "punish" Germany by denying her cargo transit through Belarus to Russia and China. At first glance, all this looks very harsh towards the Germans, but if you look closely, it turns out that Minsk is trying to blackmail not so much Berlin as Moscow.

Recall that Belarus at the end of June came under very tough sectoral sanctions of the European Union due to the incident that occurred with the Ryanair plane on May 23. The ban included the export of potash fertilizers and certain types of petroleum products, which forms the basis of Minsk's foreign exchange earnings. Also, sanctions were imposed on several key for the Belarusian economics enterprises, including MAZ and BelAZ, New Oil Company, the state-owned enterprise Belaeronavigatsia, the export company Sokhra, Logex and the Bremino Group, which is engaged in the warehouse business. In addition, the restrictive measures affected a number of individuals: judges, officials, law enforcement officers and journalists. In response, Minsk suspended the participation of Belarus in the Eastern Partnership program and threatened with its sanctions. And now it became clear what exactly Alexander Grigorievich had in mind. The Belarusian president recalled that earlier, due to unfriendly actions against his country, Skoda, Liqui Moly and Beiersdorf, which sponsored the World Ice Hockey Championship, which was supposed to take place in Belarus, had already fallen under restrictive measures:




Let's figure out who President Lukashenko really wants to intimidate. In fact, the strategic importance of Belarus for Moscow and Beijing can hardly be overestimated. Through it, Russia exports gas to Europe through the Yamal-Europe pipeline and oil through the Druzhba pipeline. For China, this small country on the EU border is a convenient trade gateway to the West. For example, Beijing has built the Great Stone Technopark in Belarus with a special tax regime, which in its essence is a giant trading hub for transshipment of Chinese goods before sending them to the European Union. The blocking of these export flows from East to West by Minsk would be a very sensitive blow for the Russian Federation and the PRC, and for Alexander Grigorievich himself, who is now under sanctions, is akin to political suicide, since he would have seriously offended his last possible intercessors. Therefore, the Belarusian president chose a different path.

He threatened to cut off German exports from West to East, as well as to close his market for products from Germany. The latter makes practically no sense at all, because Germany itself refused to supply the components necessary for the production of MAZ and BelAZ. And the German concern Volkswagen AG, strictly speaking, is already under sanctions in the Republic of Belarus, since it is the owner of the Czech brand Skoda. As for the ban on supplies to China, this is not serious. China is Germany's most important trading partner today. But, of course, the main exchange of goods between these countries is still not overland, but by the cheaper sea route.

As for the ban on the transit of German products through Belarus, Russia is the main victim. So, our country imports from Germany cars, agricultural machinery, machine tools, other production equipment, petrochemical products, such as cosmetics, medicines and even food, namely coffee, cocoa and flavoring additives. For Russia, Germany is the second most important trading partner, and any increase in costs when trading in the European currency is highly undesirable. Press Secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov has already expressed some concern about this:


Thus, the only one who can really suffer from the transit ban, besides Belarus itself, is our country. Of course, there will not be a complete collapse, since there are alternative routes. It is interesting that Alexander Grigorievich for some reason sent everyone on the "wrong track", mentioning Ukraine and Finland. Transit through Independence is inappropriate for Russia for political reasons, since it can be interrupted at any time. Lithuania and Latvia, which the Belarusian president kept silent about, could happily seize this opportunity, but they also have problems with inadequate decision-making. Finland? And why, if we have our own ports in the Baltic. In general, Moscow has no total dependence on Minsk in this matter, but there are unpleasant moments associated with the complication of logistics and increased costs by the Russian side.

The bottom line is that it is not the Germans who are going to "punish" President Lukashenko, but you and me. Apparently, because not enough financial assistance is being allocated to him now.