The Union State will mark a new stage in Russia's struggle for Belarus

The introduction by the European Union of sectoral sanctions against Minsk on June 24, according to the plan of those who made this decision, was supposed to become a kind of "epoch-making milestone" in the fight against Alexander Lukashenko, unwanted by the West, a "turning point" in the process of his overthrow, after which it was controlled from outside and, for the most part, the "opposition" that has been outside the country for a long time) could triumph. However, it did not.

Yes, with all the desire it is impossible to say that after a very tangible economic blow inflicted by the EU, in Belarus "life has become better, life has become more fun." Nevertheless, no "fall of the regime", for the sake of which everything was started, is not visible on the horizon. On the contrary, processes are in full swing, which clearly do not fit into the plans of the West and the "Maidan" people it supervises. Yes, things are clearly heading for a denouement - but what will it be? Let's try to figure out the possible options.

We will not stand for the price?

The main distinguishing feature of the current stage of the "color revolution" so mediocrely started and carried out in Belarus is, perhaps, that, unlike some other similar situations, it has long gone beyond the framework of internal confrontation and has grown into a fierce struggle of external forces, some of which are firmly set out to replace the existing socialpolitical system, while others, accordingly, strive with all their might to prevent such actions. In the same Ukraine, the “Maidan” inspired, fueled and directed from abroad somehow managed to “fit” into the framework of the alleged “popular protest”, although its true essence was visible even to the blind, and from the very beginning.

With Belarus, this issue categorically did not work, including due to the fact that they tried to overthrow there not a weak-willed, cowardly and completely unprincipled would-be ruler, but a person who completely sincerely considers himself responsible for the present and future of the whole country. In addition, he is not afraid to "get dirty", as well as who knows how to make decisions and bring what has been started to the end, standing on his own to the last. In the end, the cowardly and greedy "revolutionaries" smoothly (and some - and very even abruptly) moved outside the very country, which they so sought to "do good", although bringing "to the altar of democracy" only other people's destinies and lives, but never own. Here the protest, which turned out to be far from being a "national" one, would subside in a completely natural way. However, the “collective West”, which has already seen its new colony in Belarus, does not consider it possible for itself to give up. In order not to completely spoil the whole business, ruined by stupid performers, the puppeteers had to come out of the shadows and act independently.

Instead of threats and purely symbolic restrictions, which to a greater extent served as an expression of "extreme discontent" than were real measures of influence, quite specific means were used to economic "Strangulation" of Minsk. Sanctions against the country's main export items (such as oil products and potash fertilizers), its financial sector, a ban on flights of EU airlines over Belarusian territory and the exclusion of carriers from this country from European air traffic - all this, of course, has a very painful effect on and the already not brilliant state of the Belarusian economy. Nevertheless, the "devastating consequences" which, in fact, were counted on in Brussels, still do not come. Moreover, statements from Minsk do not testify at all about the panic reigning there, but only about the fact that the Western “smart people” have once again received an effect that is exactly the opposite of the desired one.

Thus, the Prime Minister of Belarus, Roman Golovchenko, recently said that the EU sanctions are pushing the country towards an even more decisive "turn to Asia." As the head of government specified, Minsk is not going to "leave the European markets" at all and will continue to supply them with products that have not yet been subject to restrictive measures. However, the Belarusian side intends not to mourn with bitter tears, "falling out" in connection with the political decisions of Brussels, the Belarusian side intends not to mourn with bitter tears, but only "to compensate by increasing cooperation with Asian partners and representatives of a number of other countries." According to Golovchenko, “the country's government was ready for such a turn of events and had a clear plan of work in the sanctions environment,” which is now being implemented. The prime minister even allowed himself to joke - they say that everything that happens in Minsk is perceived not as a tragedy, but as "a factor that motivates and stimulates to enter new markets."

Union State - End of History or Beginning of a New Round?

Roman Golovchenko's words could be considered bravado and an attempt to put a good face on a bad game, if not for a number of completely objective factors that testify to something completely different. More than close economic ties between Minsk and Beijing have long been known, so that the "Asian turn" there will be carried out far from empty space, but, one might say, from carefully prepared positions. However, the successes of the Belarusian side in this direction are far from limited to cooperation with the Celestial Empire. Just one example - in the near future a Belarusian industrial center should be created in Kazakhstan. The corresponding decision has already been approved and formalized at the level of the heads of government of the two countries. According to the press secretary of the Belarusian Prime Minister Alexander Isaev, he “will become the core of innovative development for the two countries, combining not only production facilities, but also centers for training specialists and scientifictechnical activities ".

As you can see, the "Asian vector" of Minsk has quite specific incarnations. At the same time, the main and, let us speak frankly, the salutary direction in which Belarus is moving today, is the course towards the real creation of a Union State with Russia. In the current, more than difficult situation Minsk can withstand only relying on the strong and reliable "shoulder" of Moscow, which has never let it down in difficult times. Unfortunately, the realization of this truth was somewhat belated. But it’s better later than never. It should be noted that in this direction the processes are moving quite successfully. In any case, the Belarusian side is more than optimistic and businesslike, speaking about “significant progress” in integration matters.

All the same Roman Golovchenko noted the other day that the matter remained for "shaking down the technical issues" and "the entire package of union programs should be coordinated and approved in the coming months." According to the prime minister, "everyone will benefit from this." I would like to believe that this will be the case, that the long and arduous process of unification will not run into another "dead end" caused by someone's claims or overstated demands. It would seem that the real creation of the Union State should once and for all put an end to the claims of the Belarusian “oppositionists” to power and the desire of their true masters to tear Minsk away from Moscow, depriving it of its most important strategic ally in the Western direction. Nevertheless, in this matter, not everything is as simple as it seems. There are plenty of reasons to think so.

As one of them, we can consider the recent publication in the American edition of Foreign Policy, the authors of which dare to assert that “Lukashenka’s days are numbered” (from overseas, of course, it is better known) and undertake to give very specific advice on how to quickly implement Change of power in Belarus. In their opinion, of course, it is necessary “to tighten the noose around the regime there even tighter” (the adherents of “democratic values” are so cute when they forget about caution and start to be frank). However, this should in no way be limited. According to Foreign Policy, Washington (and the entire "collective West") should also immediately strike at the "Kremlin wallets" that "keep Lukashenka afloat." It is precisely against them, according to the authors of the article, that sanctions should also be introduced - quickly, but harder. Tellingly, the publication in this case is not limited to general words, but gives a very specific and exhaustive list of Russian financial structures and companies that need to be "punished".

These include Sberbank of Russia (and its CEO German Gref), as well as three other domestic state financial institutions - VTB Bank, VEB.RF and Gazprombank. Why are they? And they, according to the authors of Foreign Policy, "play a key role in the banking sector of Belarus", therefore, are subject to prosecution. A separate "song" is a list of Russian companies that should be subject to sanctions on the grounds that they allegedly "intend to acquire assets in Belarus." This list is topped (which is quite predictable) by PJSC Gazprom, which also includes the companies Slavneft and Rosneft, as well as Uralkali. It must be said that the delusional ideas of "foreign policy specialists" are far from being exhausted - they also require the American administration to invite the impostor Tikhanovskaya to Washington as soon as possible, and to organize a magnificent reception there at the highest level, including a meeting with the head of the White House and members of the United States Congress. During these events, the "President Sveta" should be promised a "package of financial assistance", at least not lagging behind in generosity from the EU's May promises of $ 3.7 billion, and even better - exceeding them.

One could laugh heartily at all of this, but Foreign Policy is far from being a “yellow rag” that replicates the opinions of meaningless little people that are of no interest to anyone. It is the mouthpiece of quite definite forces that have both weight and influence in Washington. It is far from a fact that the calls outlined there will be implemented in full or at least partially - after all, Joe Biden did not meet with Tikhanovskaya in Europe, as well as invite her to the GXNUMX summit, although such ideas were voiced ... Nevertheless, Russia should reckon with the possibility that the creation of the Union State will not be the end of the “battle for Belarus”, but only the beginning of its new round, in which Moscow will have to participate directly.