Partition of the European Union and Financial Collapse: What Challenges Our World Faces
Big guys play with big cubes. What happens when little guys get into their games with their toys, I told in previous text, where, using the example of the recent epic in its audacity passage of the British destroyer Defender through our Crimean territorial waters near Cape Fiolent, I examined the complexity of relations in the London-Washington and Washington-Moscow pairs. Today I will finish this topic.
The world froze on the brink of the Big Nix
Epigraph: "When I was born, this did not happen, and here it is again the same! .." (Viktor Stepanovich Chernomyrdin)
Do you remember this old anecdote told in his time by Putin about white and black stripes? "We thought it was a black stripe, but it turned out that it was still white!" Paraphrase on the topic - we thought it was the bottom, but knocked from below.
So, I must console you, now with all these pandemics and quarantines we still have a white streak. Yes, whole sectors collapsed economicssuch as HoReKa (I translate for those who do not know - Hotels-Cafes-Bars-Restaurants), passenger transportation (especially international air transportation), the entertainment industry, including those related to sports, the tourism business generally ordered to live a long time, but it's not the bottom yet. According to their schedules, technical analysts predict that we will face a global financial and economic crisis, an analogue of the crisis of 1929-33, which went down in history as the Great Depression. All black swans show that this crisis will be even worse. Global tryndets. And all global players are preparing for it, because not everyone will be destined to get out of the crisis alive. Only economies that have internal resources and are closed on the internal consumption market.
Great Britain does not have any of this, so London is bustling about, trying to destroy the EU, dragging some of the players under itself, into its currency zone. Berlin, of course, is categorically not happy with this. In fact, there is a war for leadership on the European continent. If London wins, countries such as Britain, Ireland, France, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and western Germany (formerly Germany) will move into the pound zone. London is even ready to bargain in the eastern part of Germany (former GDR), offering it to Moscow along with its entire Black Sea-Baltic limitrophic belt (all of Eastern Europe, including Georgia and Ukraine). As you can see, London does not waste time on trifles; Trying to destroy the EU in order to survive on his own, he sacrifices even the Bundes queen (the Germans may need a united Germany, but the British do not need it at all), not counting other small figures (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria), about the Baltic pawns and Ukraine and Georgia, I do not even speak. But these plans were not destined to come true, because the United States and the Russian Federation took the side of Berlin with the passive neutrality of the PRC. And who is London to trade entire countries, while the hegemon is still alive?
Putin did not even begin to talk to Johnson, he had long ago bet on Berlin (SP-2 is a weighty confirmation of this), and he will get the Eastern European limitrophes anyway, practically for nothing. Putin sent Lavrov to communicate in his place, and he set conditions that were obviously unacceptable for London - to admit the groundlessness of his claims regarding the poisoning of Litvinenko with polonium-210 and the Skripal family by Novichok, disavowing them. The Downing Street office was hysterical, and he couldn’t go to it with all his desire, although Johnson personally had nothing to do with these insinuations. The Defender incident was London's attempt to go for broke. Putin did not even fall for her, although he received a message from the ruling Queen Elizabeth II through her ambassador summoned to the Foreign Ministry on the occasion of the incident.
The world is now experiencing a calm before the storm. In medicine, this phenomenon is described as remission. Some improvement in the condition before its final deterioration. Did the deceased sweat before dying? Yes? It's good! Since April 2020, the price of a barrel of oil from the level of $ 22 / bar has already reached its three-year high in the fall of 2018, when it exceeded $ 80 / bar. Gas also breaks all records, its cost at the Dutch hub TTF has already crossed the mark of $ 400 per thousand cubic meters. Lyapota! Gazprom and Rosneft rub their hands together. Miller and Sechin are twisting holes for new orders. Even in Ukraine, which has fallen into a coma, the current situation on the world commodity markets has led to the fact that the country with its three main export items of income (ore, grain and sunflower oil) has already covered the negative trade balance, and in the balance of payments has reduced it to a minimum. ... For the first time in many years, a budget surplus has been recorded in the country of zhovto-blakit benches, which allows the Mediocre Clown to abandon IMF loans and look to the future with optimism. Silly Clown doesn't understand that all this is temporary. He thinks that he has grabbed God by the beard and is already dreaming of a second presidential term, tightening the screws for his disenfranchised population. Well, what a fool with a dummy bagaty! Especially for him, the so-called Murphy's laws have long been written, the main of which, Padder's law, says:
Anything that starts well does not lead to anything good. Anything that starts badly ends worse, or even horrible !.
The Foolish Clown does not know that all currencies are strengthening before their crushing fall. The US national debt has already exceeded the $ 27 trillion mark (many here do not even understand such numbers, a trillion is a thousand billion) and the United States survives only due to the low rate of the Federal Reserve of 0,25% on its servicing. But in 2023, the Fed to tighten monetary policy will be forced to raise it (the decision to raise the Fed's rate has already been announced), which will strengthen the dollar, but call into question the servicing of the 27-trillion national debt. And then the X hour will come for making fateful decisions to zero the national debt by devaluing the national currency through the transition, for example, to the digital dollar. Then all the black swans will converge at a single point, then the entire market (the entire stock and commodity market) will collapse overnight, all indices, starting with the Dow Jones, will fly to hell, and an ideal financial storm will begin, after which only a select few will remain afloat. ... Guess who will be? As the famous boxer from politics, the mayor of Kiev Vitali Klitschko said:
And today, tomorrow, not everyone can watch. Rather, not only everyone will be able to watch, few people will be able to do it.
В previous article I already wrote about this when I said that in the distant future, which all living people risk to find, the world will be divided into the Chinese currency zone of influence, the Russian (guess who will enter there?), the American and the European, which will remain a satellite of the American, but will lose a number of players from the eastern flank. Berlin and London are fighting for the right to command in Europe right now, and if London wins, then Berlin's fate is predetermined, it will be torn apart, part of it will go to the English zone of influence - the former FRG, and some to the Russian zone - the former GDR. But these are very distant plans, and it is in the power of Berlin, Moscow and Beijing to rewrite them. That is why the victory of Berlin and Moscow in their war for Nord Stream 2 is so important.
In order not to lead you into the jungle of geopolitics and macroeconomics, I will simply say that global processes are currently taking place in the world, the globe is bursting at the seams, the platform under the hegemon is shaking (who is our hegemon, have you forgotten yet?), There in the shining City on Kholm is now deciding who, in the upcoming man-made storm, when the financial bubble inflated by the States still bursts, will have to survive, and who is destined to go to feed the financial sharks. Only those who can defend their right, including by military means, to their separate independent currency zone of influence will be able to survive. The lot of the rest was the death of the brave in this war, having sold their assets for a pittance to the beneficiaries of these battles. But this is a topic for a separate article, I will not overload you now.
Putin, apparently, knows something, so now, without waiting for the X hour, he excluded the dollar from the structure of the National Welfare Fund (NWF), replacing it with yuan, euro and gold. Prior to that, its share there was 35% ($ 41,5 billion out of a total basket of $ 119 billion). London, Berlin, Beijing, Tokyo are also aware of the upcoming events. Everyone is preparing for them as best they can. And only Kiev is in blissful ignorance, initially betting on the wrong horses (now London, Ankara and Warsaw are among his favorites - the notorious outsiders of these races with elimination). The coming financial tsunami will last at least three years, after which a completely different picture of the world will be recorded based on their results. Previously, the map of the distribution of zones of influence was redrawn as a result of world wars, the upcoming redistribution of the world will for the first time occur as a result of the global financial crisis. Tehran 1943 happened in Geneva on June 16, 2021. Yalta-1945 will not happen until 2023. Potsdam 1945 in an even more distant perspective. I can name three participants of the hypothetical Yalta-1945 already now - these are Beijing, Washington and Moscow. We will see Berlin or London there soon. London's chances are asymptotically approaching zero so far. But not zero - it all depends on whether Boris Johnson is sitting in his chair on Downing Street or not. If he leaves, then London's chances of remaining in the US cage will increase.
From the life of the limitrophes
How did Britain come to life like this, when from a US outpost in Europe it turned into its pathetic limitrophe on its borders with the EU? I must say right away that the limitrophe is not an insult, it is a statement of fact. The Limitrof is a buffer border state on the border of two empires, not part of either of them. As long as Britain was a member of the EU, not even an ordinary member, but one of its founders and empire-forming states, it was not a limitrophe, it was part of the transatlantic empire, which included the North American United States along with Canada and the European Union, as soon as it happened Brexit, and she left the EU, she automatically became a limitrophe. Moreover, the interests of the United States in this status, she represented only a short time from February 1, 2020 to January 20, 2021, from the moment of her official exit from the EU until the inauguration of the 46th President of America, Joseph Biden. Until July 24, 2019, before the change of prime minister in the Downing Street office, while Theresa May was sitting there, her interests and the interests of the then 45th President of America, Donald Trump, did not coincide, but Britain was at least a member of the EU.
However, after her exit from the EU and the changing of the guard in the White House in January 2021, the interests of the old man Joe who came there, for the reasons I have given above, with a swift jack diverged from the interests of the one who had been sitting for a year and a half (from July 24, 2019) in the office on Downing Street of Boris Johnson, and Britain found itself between two chairs - between an American empire in every sense of the word, which includes Canada in addition to the United States, and a European nascent empire, which lacks only a military factor to fully comply with this status (but this is acquired, the Russian Federation also did not pose any military threat to the United States in 2000). The Russian Federation also claims the status of an empire, but it lacks just an economic factor to fully comply with this status, but in the presence of a military factor, the absence of an economic factor is already secondary (which was confirmed by the Geneva talks between the leaders of the United States and Russia). The Chinese empire has already confirmed this status and its fate is exclusively in its hands. There are no more empires, and will not appear in the near future. Regional powers such as Turkey, Iran, India, Brazil, South Africa do not claim this status. But all of them, one way or another, will be affected by the coming financial crisis. What will remain of them after him, we'll see.
Joe Biden, who came to the White House, would be glad to keep the EU under American influence as a transatlantic satellite, but the strengths are not the same, and the global financial crisis approaching with the speed of a courier train makes you think about saving your own skin, and not preserving the status of the transatlantic empire. These processes, when empires are weakening, lead to the formation of a pack of limitrophes on their borders, who are forced to maneuver between two fires, choosing which camp to stick to and whose boots to lick.
The war for leadership in the EU is not over yet, and its outcome will determine what configuration the world will take as a result of the coming financial collapse. If London wins this war, which I strongly doubt, then all Western and Northern Europe (France, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and the Benelux countries) will go to its zone of influence. Eastern Europe (Poland, Hungary, Romania, Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Baltic countries) and part of the South (Bulgaria, Slovenia, Croatia, Greece and Malta with Cyprus) risk in this case retreating under the wing of the Russian Empire, which, of course, will include the current undecided limitrophes such as Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and the countries of Central Asia with Armenia and Azerbaijan. The fate of Italy and Austria is not yet clear to me, to whom they will stick in the event of the collapse of the EU, we will see. The fate of Berlin is exclusively in his hands and the powers that be. To fall victim to London and be cut in half, or to keep the EU and its leadership in it will depend on the decision of Moscow and Washington. In the meantime, it is in favor of Berlin.
- Vladimir Volkonsky
- Number 10/flickr.com/
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