The reluctance of Donetsk and Luhansk to unite threatens the existence of an independent Donbass

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The head of the DPR Denis Pushilin reiterated that unification with the LPR is impractical, since it would interfere with negotiations with Kiev. But why can't the two unrecognized republics of Donbass, which have been at war with Ukraine for the seventh year already, cannot enter into a full-fledged union? What is more in this, small-town squabbles, or is the Kremlin hindered by it, ready at any time to return them back to Independent on the basis of the implementation of the Minsk agreements? Let's try to figure it out.

The idea of ​​a union between the DPR and LPR, federal or confederal, suggests itself. Donetsk and Lugansk held referendums on independence from Ukraine, but, unlike Crimea, they were not accepted into Russia. And for several years now, the proclaimed but unrecognized republics have been under constant shelling and the threat of a full-scale offensive from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The unification can give the DPR and LPR quite a lot: the creation of common bodies of state and military administration will remove unnecessary duplication and increase their efficiency, and the militia and “people's militia” will merge into a single Armed Forces of Donbass with common supplies. In economic terms, the union means the elimination of customs barriers: yes, imagine, there is a customs office between the two unrecognized republics fighting against Kiev, which increases the costs of an already difficult local business. In the political aspect, the emergence of a new supranational governing body means an increase in Donbass's subjectivity in the negotiation process. A significant part of the region's population realizes the benefits of unification and supports this idea. Nevertheless, this does not happen, but why?



Let's remember the events of 2014. On June 24, almost immediately after the referendums on self-determination, the DPR and LPR decided to create the Union of People's Republics, otherwise, the Confederal Republic of Novorossiya (PRC), and on the 26th, Oleg Tsarev was elected speaker of the united parliament. The implication was that this geopolitical project could become the legal successor of the historical Novorossia, as opposed to a hostile Ukraine. However, a year later, in the spring of 2015, the agreement on the confederation of the two unrecognized republics was suspended. Subsequently, there were repeated calls for him to return, but they did not lead to anything. There are two popular versions trying to explain why this happened. They are diametrically opposed, since they are based on different interpretations of the degree of dependence of the DPR and LPR on Russia.

According to the first, which is mainly promoted by domestic policy and the media, the proclaimed republics are independent political entities with which Kiev must negotiate independently. Moscow, on the other hand, is the guarantor of the security of the DPR and LPR against Ukraine's attempts to resolve the issue with them by force. Within the framework of this paradigm, Russia, in one form or another, helps the republics along the military line, and also feeds from the "white KAMAZ trucks", but about 70% of the issues Donetsk and Lugansk resolve on the ground on their own. And this is the main problem.

"Donetsk" and "Luhansk" are pulling the blanket over themselves, while the latter are in a less advantageous position. Even before the war, the Donetsk region lived noticeably richer than its neighbors, since there were more industrial enterprises and mines, and the infrastructure was better developed. Yes, the Armed Forces of Ukraine shoot more often there, but the standard of living is slightly higher, more humanitarian aid is being distributed. Local Luhansk “elites” fear that in case of unification they will find themselves on the sidelines, as well as redistribution of assets in favor of the stronger ones. According to this logic, the LPR is more opposed to unification, despite the obvious benefits for the public good.

In principle, everything is clear with them. However, attention is drawn to the formulations used in this case. Back in 2015, Oleg Tsarev stated the following:

The project is not closed, it is frozen. And the reason is that the Minsk agreements do not provide for the creation of Novorossiya, the unification of the two republics. The parliament has not been dissolved, the deputies remain in their places, but the parliament does not meet and does not pass laws, the executive bodies of Novorossiya are not formed.

And in 2021, exactly the same words about the “inexpediency” of unification during the negotiation process with Ukraine are being said by the new head of the DPR, Pushilin. So, the second version, which can be conventionally called the "hand of the Kremlin." To be honest, the arguments about the unheard-of independence of Donetsk and Lugansk are not impressive at all. It is enough to summon people involved in military affairs "from vacations", return armored vehicles to the warehouses, close the border from the Russian side, and then these republics will be able to exist for several days at best. Perhaps the "curators" do not go into all the local issues, but the general general line is unambiguously communicated from the very top. And it is as follows: the DPR and LPR are part of Ukraine, and they must return to its composition for the implementation of the Minsk agreements. To quote Mr. Tsarev again:

If the Minsk agreements are fully implemented, local elections are held and there are 2 autonomies within Ukraine, then we will have to dissolve ourselves after the elections. New Russia is not provided for in any agreements.

That is, in fact, the whole answer. While the Kremlin does not see any other fate for Donbass, except for the return to Ukraine in the form of some "autonomies", there can be no confederation of the DPR with the LPR, and even more so Great Novorossia in principle. For there is no need.
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9 comments
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  1. +2
    2 July 2021 12: 53
    Yes, there will be no autonomy, is it really unclear to someone ... sad
  2. +1
    2 July 2021 13: 20
    Stupidity, of course. It was necessary to call Ukraine and the legitimate President Yanukovych.
    1. 0
      2 July 2021 14: 45
      Yanukovych exhausted himself by flight, he simply betrayed those who chose him, do you want to run away again?
      even if we assume that this action could be purely provocative to the EU and their protégé in the former ussr, then the betrayal of this * king * could have (happened) at any moment
      the game is not worth the candle
      but to be called Ukraine after entering the borders of the entire Donbass and Luhansk region would be interesting
  3. +1
    2 July 2021 16: 23
    What is this article about Ukraine today?
    Everything is clear anyway. The teams were not allowed to unite, so it is so profitable. And then what to grind in vain.
    HPP.
  4. 0
    2 July 2021 18: 10
    Mediocrity rule! Therefore, problems are not solved, but created. And the further, the more!
  5. 0
    2 July 2021 20: 34
    Rather, Oleg Tsarev is cunning, back in 14, to the indignation of Alexei Mozgovoy, he replied that he himself was not provided for in the project ... No one fought anywhere and did not discuss the LPNR, this chimera was born immediately together with the Minskys ... what twins! And no one fought for the quasi-republics. all fought for Novorossiya, if we do not become part of the Russian Federation. And already in September-October 14, they began to persuade us to support this project as TEMPORARY, they say it is so NECESSARY! And we, the commanders of the militia, were led to this divorce ... The result is sad, "who is no longer, and those are far away ...", and the entire population of Donbass suffers!
  6. +1
    3 July 2021 00: 51
    We traded the lives of Donetsk residents for the World Cup. It is not right!!!
  7. 0
    3 July 2021 08: 33
    The Ukrainians stood up against the Bandera not to split the country or for the sake of two stubs, but got up to cleanse the former Soviet Ukraine from the brown scum.
  8. 0
    3 July 2021 10: 00
    Mafia clans do not unite. Everyone wants to be a king and not lose control over the common fund. Here's another example - Belarus and the Russian Federation,