Sacred Sacrifice Will Be Made at Sea Breeze 2021 Exercise?

Military exercises Sea Breeze-2021 began in the Black Sea and on the Ukrainian coast, which became the largest and most aggressive in their anti-Russian orientation since the first in 1997. They will last 26 days, and the main intrigue, of course, is whether the maneuvers will be used for another provocation against Crimea.

Recall that on June 23, the destroyer of the British Kingdom of the Navy HMS Dedender, following from Odessa to Batumi, decided to "cut the corner", passing through the Russian territorial waters in the Crimea. The problem is that neither Kiev, nor London, nor the entire so-called "world community" recognize the peninsula as part of the Russian Federation, considering its waters to be Ukrainian. Consequently, there was no violation under international law. True, there is one more nuance: the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation closed this part of the water area for passage because of its military exercises there, but from the point of view of Great Britain this no longer matters.



And then what happened happened: the aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces were lifted into the air, and along the course of the HMS Dedender, the patrol ship fired warning shots. Our Su-24M reportedly dropped four high-explosive fragmentation bombs in front of the destroyer. The British ship continued following the chosen course and a few minutes later left the territorial waters of the peninsula. Moreover, it later became known that the next day, June 24, the Dutch frigate HNLMS Evertsen (F805) tried to make a provocative maneuver, which unexpectedly changed its course to the Kerch Strait. Russian Su-30 fighters and Su-24 bombers, carrying out "unsafe maneuvers" over it, carrying "air-to-surface" missiles and aerial bombs, were able to drive it away. The incident was reported by the Dutch Ministry of Defense.

Let's face it, the matter is gaining dangerous momentum. There is a concerted action by two NATO member states at once. The Russian authorities reprimanded the attaché and the ambassador of the United Kingdom for the provocation, but in London they consider themselves to be completely right and intend to repeat it on occasion. Official Amsterdam took a similar position:


This presents Moscow with a serious choice. Alas, there may be more than enough reasons for a new provocation in the next three weeks.

A huge grouping of naval forces from 32 countries was concentrated on the Black Sea. Even representatives of Australia, Japan, Canada, Israel, Brazil and South Korea, which are so distant and inappropriate here, have climbed here. The maneuvers will involve 32 ships, 40 aircraft and 5 servicemen. The exercises will take place both at sea and on the territory of several coastal regions of Ukraine. And, of course, the Sixth Fleet of the US Navy, ships of the United Kingdom and the Netherlands will be involved in them. From Nezalezhnaya, 2021 boats and ships, 24 search and rescue vessel, 1 out of 17 declared aircraft, 40 helicopters, 12 armored vehicles and 80 servicemen will take part in Sea Breeze-1,5 at once.

It turns out that the main forces will be represented in these large-scale exercises by Kiev. And this opens up a lot of opportunities that are unpleasant for Russia for Ukraine and the NATO bloc. It is not hard to imagine that during the Sea Breeze-2021, the maritime borders of the Crimea could be violated by another NATO warship, or even more than one. Also, a combat aircraft can try to cut a corner in the airspace over the peninsula. So what will the Russian Defense Ministry do then? The correct answer can be given only if one understands whether London was really afraid of Moscow's tough reaction, or whether he was not impressed by it.

Let us assume that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was not afraid and is really ready to send his ship again to test the strength of the Russians, believing that they will manage with warnings and shooting, which precludes defeat. In this case, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation must notify the NATO bloc and all participants in Sea Breeze-2021 in advance that any ship or aircraft that violates the Russian state border will certainly be destroyed. If they still want to take a risk, when approaching on the next destroyer or fighter, they should open a warning fire, if the movement continues, use the means of an electronic warfare attack. If the violation continues, it will have to be destroyed. Sorry, we asked for it ourselves. Naturally, Russia will have negative consequences in the form of deteriorating relations with the West, but there is nowhere to go. A nuclear war will not start, but sanctions are simply guaranteed.

There is also another option. Let's say London and Washington are convinced of Moscow's firm readiness to defend its sovereignty over Crimea. Then they can send the Naval Forces of Ukraine ahead of themselves as a “sacred victim”. For example, the commander of a Ukrainian boat will receive a direct and unambiguous order to proceed through the Kerch Strait to Berdyansk without asking permission from the FSB Border Service. Or the Ukrainian Air Force plane will violate the airspace of the Crimea during the exercise. And what to do? We'll have to try to stop, and in case of impossibility - to drown or shoot down. And here again, negative consequences cannot be avoided. Russia's actions will be presented as unmotivated aggression, for which we will receive another package of tough sanctions, and Ukraine, as an innocent victim, can be accepted into NATO in a simplified manner.