Afghanistan threat: Moscow will have to repeat its Syrian experience
Twenty years after the start of the intervention and occupation, the US military will finally pull out of Afghanistan. However, they will come out - that's putting it mildly. From the outside, it all looks more like an escape. But why did Washington make this decision right now, and why did the Democrat Joe Biden not revise the plans of his principal opponent, Republican Donald Trump? What is the United States seeking?
In Afghanistan, the US military ended up with the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan (ISAF) in response to the September 11, 2001 attack. The founder of the terrorist organization Al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, who took responsibility for its organization, received asylum in this country. President Bush delivered an ultimatum to the leadership of the Russian-banned Taliban demanding the extradition of bin Laden and the entire top of his group, but the Taliban refused, citing insufficient evidence of guilt. The hostilities of the Western coalition led by the United States in Afghanistan began on October 7, 2001. Bin Laden himself was destroyed in neighboring Pakistan on May 2, 2011. But we can confidently conclude that even 20 years was not enough for the "hegemon" and his allies to finally defeat the Taliban. Moreover, as a result of the aggressive actions of the United States in the Middle East, an even more dangerous terrorist group ISIS, banned in the Russian Federation, has raised its head in Afghanistan. And now the Americans are hastily heading far away, leaving behind a scattered hornet's nest. But why now? Why did both Trump and Biden turn out to be completely in solidarity in making such a decision?
"Sleepy Joe" said quite cynically:
Afghans will have to determine their own future and decide what they want. The senseless violence must stop.
"Pointless Violence"? This is something new. Indeed, wherever the American soldier steps, violence is guaranteed. But when they do leave, the violence they generate simply moves to a new level. So, at present, a successful offensive of the Taliban is taking place in Afghanistan, which take one settlement after another, and the soldiers of the government army voluntarily surrender to them. At this rate, this country in the very near future will be under the control of the Islamists. The key question is what comes next. And here different options are possible.
The most favorable scenario for Russia would be if the Taliban focused on solving the huge number of internal problems that have accumulated over decades of foreign intervention and occupation. Note that in recent years, representatives of this movement have become frequent guests in Moscow, where they conducted negotiations and consultations on a political settlement. And this is despite the fact that this organization is prohibited on the territory of the Russian Federation by our Supreme Court. There is a nonzero probability that the Kremlin will be able to conclude a "non-aggression pact" with the Taliban on the principle "you do not meddle with us, but we with you."
Unfortunately, the situation is complicated by the fact that the Taliban are not the only Islamist movement in Afghanistan. Also, the positions of the banned ISIS are quite strong there, which clearly will not miss the chance to fill the resulting power vacuum and spread its influence by recruiting new supporters. It is very likely that after the final withdrawal of foreign troops and the collapse of the government army in Afghanistan, a new feud will break out over how radical this new state will be. Either one of the parties will be able to win a convincing victory, or a division into spheres of influence will take place, and then a lot will depend on the current configuration.
It is not hard to guess that the United States is withdrawing its troops with an eye on the fact that radical Islamism spilled over the entire region of Central Asia, posing a threat at the same time to their two main enemies, Russia and China. For the PRC, the expansion of Islamists in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region with a predominantly Muslim population, as well as in the southern direction, to Pakistan, may be dangerous. If everything is clear with the Uighurs, Islamabad acts as an ally of Beijing against India. If Taliban or ISIS fighters go to Pakistan, the entire region could be on fire, and such major players as India and China will be involved in the conflict, directly or indirectly, and ultimately lead to their weakening.
But these are not all possible troubles. It is quite possible that radical Islamists will nevertheless choose the northern direction as a more promising direction for expansion. This means the arrival of terrorist groups in the former Soviet Central Asian republics. Thus, the border crossing point with Tajikistan is already under the control of the Taliban. In fact, there is no real state border there. What can happen next can be seen in the example of Syria, where militants of various terrorist groups have calmly entered for years. If Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan flare up at war, the entire southern underbelly of Russia will be targeted by radical Islamists. Also, we will undoubtedly face the problem of refugees who will flood megacities and exacerbate socialeconomic and the crime situation in our country.
Judging by the actions of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, the Central Military District has suddenly turned from the rear to the front line. A rapid build-up of its combat capabilities began: an increase in the size of the military contingent, the arrival of new models of military equipment... Most likely, Moscow will have to repeat its Syrian experience in Central Asia. The 201st Russian military base in Tajikistan may become the second "Khmeimim", from where the RF Aerospace Forces and the RF Armed Forces will be forced to interact with the armies of the Central Asian republics against radical Islamist groups.
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