Afghanistan threat: Moscow will have to repeat its Syrian experience

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Twenty years after the start of the intervention and occupation, the US military will finally pull out of Afghanistan. However, they will come out - that's putting it mildly. From the outside, it all looks more like an escape. But why did Washington make this decision right now, and why did the Democrat Joe Biden not revise the plans of his principal opponent, Republican Donald Trump? What is the United States seeking?

In Afghanistan, the US military ended up with the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan (ISAF) in response to the September 11, 2001 attack. The founder of the terrorist organization Al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, who took responsibility for its organization, received asylum in this country. President Bush delivered an ultimatum to the leadership of the Russian-banned Taliban demanding the extradition of bin Laden and the entire top of his group, but the Taliban refused, citing insufficient evidence of guilt. The hostilities of the Western coalition led by the United States in Afghanistan began on October 7, 2001. Bin Laden himself was destroyed in neighboring Pakistan on May 2, 2011. But we can confidently conclude that even 20 years was not enough for the "hegemon" and his allies to finally defeat the Taliban. Moreover, as a result of the aggressive actions of the United States in the Middle East, an even more dangerous terrorist group ISIS, banned in the Russian Federation, has raised its head in Afghanistan. And now the Americans are hastily heading far away, leaving behind a scattered hornet's nest. But why now? Why did both Trump and Biden turn out to be completely in solidarity in making such a decision?



"Sleepy Joe" said quite cynically:

Afghans will have to determine their own future and decide what they want. The senseless violence must stop.

"Pointless Violence"? This is something new. Indeed, wherever the American soldier steps, violence is guaranteed. But when they do leave, the violence they generate simply moves to a new level. So, at present, a successful offensive of the Taliban is taking place in Afghanistan, which take one settlement after another, and the soldiers of the government army voluntarily surrender to them. At this rate, this country in the very near future will be under the control of the Islamists. The key question is what comes next. And here different options are possible.

The most favorable scenario for Russia would be if the Taliban focused on solving the huge number of internal problems that have accumulated over decades of foreign intervention and occupation. Note that in recent years, representatives of this movement have become frequent guests in Moscow, where they conducted negotiations and consultations on a political settlement. And this is despite the fact that this organization is prohibited on the territory of the Russian Federation by our Supreme Court. There is a nonzero probability that the Kremlin will be able to conclude a "non-aggression pact" with the Taliban on the principle "you do not meddle with us, but we with you."

Unfortunately, the situation is complicated by the fact that the Taliban are not the only Islamist movement in Afghanistan. Also, the positions of the banned ISIS are quite strong there, which clearly will not miss the chance to fill the resulting power vacuum and spread its influence by recruiting new supporters. It is very likely that after the final withdrawal of foreign troops and the collapse of the government army in Afghanistan, a new feud will break out over how radical this new state will be. Either one of the parties will be able to win a convincing victory, or a division into spheres of influence will take place, and then a lot will depend on the current configuration.

It is not hard to guess that the United States is withdrawing its troops with an eye on the fact that radical Islamism spilled over the entire region of Central Asia, posing a threat at the same time to their two main enemies, Russia and China. For the PRC, the expansion of Islamists in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region with a predominantly Muslim population, as well as in the southern direction, to Pakistan, may be dangerous. If everything is clear with the Uighurs, Islamabad acts as an ally of Beijing against India. If Taliban or ISIS fighters go to Pakistan, the entire region could be on fire, and such major players as India and China will be involved in the conflict, directly or indirectly, and ultimately lead to their weakening.

But these are not all possible troubles. It is quite possible that radical Islamists will nevertheless choose the northern direction as a more promising direction for expansion. This means the arrival of terrorist groups in the former Soviet Central Asian republics. Thus, the border crossing point with Tajikistan is already under the control of the Taliban. In fact, there is no real state border there. What can happen next can be seen in the example of Syria, where militants of various terrorist groups have calmly entered for years. If Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan flare up at war, the entire southern underbelly of Russia will be targeted by radical Islamists. Also, we will undoubtedly face the problem of refugees who will flood megacities and exacerbate socialeconomic and the crime situation in our country.

Judging by the actions of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, the Central Military District has suddenly turned from the rear to the front line. A rapid build-up of its combat capabilities began: an increase in the size of the military contingent, the arrival of new models of military equipment... Most likely, Moscow will have to repeat its Syrian experience in Central Asia. The 201st Russian military base in Tajikistan may become the second "Khmeimim", from where the RF Aerospace Forces and the RF Armed Forces will be forced to interact with the armies of the Central Asian republics against radical Islamist groups.
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  1. -6
    28 June 2021 15: 53
    Note that in recent years, representatives of this movement have become frequent guests in Moscow, where they conducted negotiations and consultations on a political settlement. And this is despite the fact that this organization is prohibited on the territory of the Russian Federation by our Supreme Court.

    It is difficult to imagine anything more cynical ... The authorities completely "hammered" on the decision of the highest judicial power. I wiped my feet. Where then the hopes of people for a normal attitude of the authorities towards them?
    1. 123
      +3
      28 June 2021 19: 54
      It is difficult to imagine anything more cynical ... The authorities completely "hammered" on the decision of the highest judicial power. I wiped my feet. Where then the hopes of people for a normal attitude of the authorities towards them?

      Why introduce? You can just flip through the press ... smile



      US and Taliban Sign Historic Peace Agreement
      This treaty marks an important step in the Afghan war and in the movement towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict. US will withdraw troops from 5 military bases in Afghanistan.

      (Feb 29, 2020 www.dw.com/ru)

      Where then the hopes of people for a normal attitude of the US authorities towards them? lol
      1. -1
        29 June 2021 08: 20
        I am more sorry for our political "ducks bothering, we do not live in the states ... Why then and who needs this Supreme Court?"
        1. 123
          +2
          29 June 2021 10: 36
          I am more sorry for our political "ducks bothering, we do not live in the states ... Why then and who needs this Supreme Court?"

          Here it is! belay But what about the entire civilized world community? fellow
          Certain types of figures are often exclusively of our interest. Choosing something, pretending to be the same for others does not count and certain conclusions follow ...
          If we consider the actions according to your method, then for example in 1944 the Red Army invaded Europe, some kind of aggressors.
          Here is a quote from the court decision, how was it violated? Are you allowed to operate in Russia?

          I DECIDED:

          satisfy the application of the Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation, recognize as terrorist organizations: "Supreme Military Majlisul Shura of the Joint Forces of the Mujahideen of the Caucasus", "Congress of the Peoples of Ichkeria and Dagestan", "Baza" ("Al-Qaeda"), "Asbat al-Ansar", "Holy War" ("Al-Jihad" or " Egyptian Islamic Jihad), Islamic Group (Al-Gama'a al-Islamiya), Muslim Brotherhood (Al-Ikhwan al-Muslimun), Islamic Liberation Party (Hizb ut-Tahrir al- Islami), Lashkar-I-Taiba, Islamic Group (Jamaat-i-Islami), Taliban Movement, Islamic Party of Turkestan (former Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan), Society of Social Reforms (Jamiyat al-Islah al-Ijtimai), Society for the Revival of Islamic Heritage (Jamiyat Ihya at-Turaz al-Islami), House of Two Saints (Al-Haramein) and prohibit their activities on the territory of the Russian Federation.
          The decision can be appealed to the cassation board of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation within 10 days after the court renders the final decision.

          Presiding Officer,
          Judge of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation

          http://nac.gov.ru/zakonodatelstvo/sudebnye-resheniya/reshenie-verhovnogo-suda-rf-ot-14-fevralya.html

          As for the negotiations, it happens, you know, they talk to them from time to time, Chernomyrdin, for example, talked to Basayev, with some of them the Khasavyurt agreements were signed.
          I could recall one Irish organization, the IRA, but you are not interested in foreign experience. And the demolition of power in the United States and the British monarchy is not required. This is different, we have nothing to blame on them ...
          The attitude towards Afghanistan is extremely pragmatic, they speak with those who control the territory, waiting for someone pacifist to appear there and wearing a white tailcoat is at least naive.
          This does not differ much from communicating with the Ukrainian authorities, the approach is approximately the same.
  2. +1
    28 June 2021 16: 05
    It's time to join the countries of Central Asia into a closer alliance with Russia. There are minerals, and the export of Russian products, and agricultural products are not bad for Russia. Better to reunite in one country. This is a good decision for Russia and the Silk Road.
    1. +1
      29 June 2021 10: 44
      Hello ! It is imperative to unite, only not in a Union, but in one indivisible Russia. Give the autonomous republics all the powers and authority, as in the Crimea or Tatarstan.
    2. 0
      3 July 2021 03: 44
      It's time to join the countries of Central Asia into a closer alliance with Russia

      At the same time, it will be necessary to recall and restore the methods of combating the partisan movement ...
  3. -3
    28 June 2021 16: 51
    Oh! And you can from life. A worker, housing and communal services at the entrance from Tajikistan, two cashiers in the top five from Kyrgyzstan. Boy, I’ll earn extra money, I’ll finish building a villa at home, and I’ll leave. Little girls, and they call us to get married, let's see, we'll see laughing
    1. -1
      29 June 2021 17: 56
      Russophobes Bandera disagree, I'm not surprised ...
  4. 0
    28 June 2021 17: 14
    There is a nonzero probability that the Kremlin will be able to conclude a "non-aggression pact" with the Taliban on the principle "you do not meddle with us, but we with you."

    Absurd. There it makes no sense to agree on something. They will sell their mother for money or bakshish.
    They offer the option of Syria. The Americans also acted for 20 years, so what?
    Afghans can no longer and do not want anything other than to rob and kill, seize, fight for trophies, well, drugs, of course. Every teenager at the age of 12 gets a weapon in his hands, immediately chews, sniffs, injects. Is this a normal country?
    Strongly radical, but I propose to apply poison in the northern regions (bordering on Tajikistan). blows. Convert all border crossings to hazardous radiological areas.
    Of course they will go anyway, but they will glow on all devices, at all train stations and airports. You can catch it, and not the tenants.
    Let them go to Pakistan, Iran. They will be met there.
    1. 123
      +1
      28 June 2021 19: 57
      Strongly radical, but I propose to apply poison in the northern regions (bordering on Tajikistan). blows. Convert all border crossings to hazardous radiological areas.
      Of course they will go anyway, but they will glow on all devices, at all train stations and airports. You can catch it, and not the tenants.

      You need to be treated belay Only barbarians have dared to do this in the entire human history.
  5. 0
    28 June 2021 19: 09
    USA, Britain, Turkey - will destabilize everything around Afghanistan.
    And of course the militant detachments will go to Central Asia.
    No country alone will calm Afghanistan.
    Only one option is possible - if China, India and Russia manage to come to an agreement,
    to join forces, and to deal with the "harmonization" of Afghanistan.
    For your own safety.
    This is investment and the establishment of at least some kind of peaceful life.

    Otherwise, in Russia, in this NEW WAR, at the same time - "Ukrainian front", "Caucasian front"
    and the "Central Asian Front".
    Losses on three fronts - this will already be an enumeration of problems for Russia.
    1. 123
      +1
      28 June 2021 20: 04
      Only one option is possible - if China, India and Russia manage to come to an agreement,
      to join forces, and to deal with the "harmonization" of Afghanistan.

      This is hardly real. Rather, the alignment is slightly different. Among the Taliban, Pakistan's influence is quite large, China is behind it, there is also Iran. India does not border on Afghanistan (I do not know how to count Jammu and Kashmir, the territory is disputed). They are not interested in escalating the conflict, but joint action with China is unlikely.
      1. 0
        28 June 2021 21: 05
        Of course, it is necessary to unite countries that can negotiate with the Taliban and invest. The countries of this region, in order to weaken the influence of the United States and Britain on the Taliban. Pakistan, Iran is an ideology-religion.
        China and Russia are investments.
        In order not to fight on their territories, it is necessary to unite those interested in "pacifying" Afghanistan.
        China will certainly participate in order to squeeze the "out of there" - the US-Britain.
        1. 123
          +1
          28 June 2021 23: 28
          In order not to fight on their territories, unification is necessary
          interested in "pacifying" Afghanistan.

          Golden words good

          China will certainly participate in order to squeeze the "out of there" - the US-Britain.

          He will participate in order to squeeze anyone, he has already been participating, and for a long time. Back in the days of the USSR, he took part ... and Pakistan too ...
          The whole history shows that there are no permanent allies, there is a temporary coincidence of interests. Everyone pulls the blanket over themselves and pursues only their own interests.
    2. -1
      3 July 2021 03: 49
      Losses on three fronts - this will already be an enumeration of problems for Russia.

      The people silently gulp down - they are accustomed to endure ...
      But what an influence in the world!
  6. -2
    28 June 2021 19: 32
    The alliance of Russia, China and India for the purpose of democratizing Afghanistan is utopian. It takes billions of money to try to build something there and make it work. With nothing else effect. Everyone understands this. They won't give money.
    Detachments of US-armed militants using US satellites will march north. First, they will turn Central Asia into a kind of Afghanistan. Ideas of murder and robbery spread well. Then they will come to Russia. You will dig trenches around every city and village. If not, then collect the guts of their own and loved ones after the terrorist attacks of martyrs.
    This infection must be stopped! Now these are the northern provinces of distant Afghanistan, then it will be Tashkent and even Astrakhan.
    1. 123
      0
      28 June 2021 20: 06
      Detachments of US-armed militants using US satellites will march north. First, they will turn Central Asia into a kind of Afghanistan. Ideas of murder and robbery spread well. Then they will come to Russia. You will dig trenches around every city and village. If not, then collect the guts of their own and loved ones after the terrorist attacks of martyrs.

      Hear Nostradamus, you would tie the apocalypse to predict.
  7. 0
    28 June 2021 19: 44
    It would be interesting to listen to colleagues who worked there, served ...
  8. 0
    28 June 2021 23: 12
    And, again, "everything is gone." And all at once. (USA, RUSSIA, Asian republics)
    although even in the article:

    despite the fact that this organization is prohibited on the territory of the Russian Federation by our Supreme Court

    that in recent years representatives of this movement have become frequent guests in Moscow,

    So themis will close her eyes, money does not smell ...
    1. 0
      29 June 2021 09: 59
      So after all, we are talking about $ billions: Afghan is the main supplier of opium poppy.
      1. 0
        29 June 2021 10: 20
        Maybe. About 15 years ago, buns with poppy seeds, ice cream with poppy seeds, chocolate with poppy seeds, etc. disappeared.

        Now, maybe ...
  9. 0
    29 June 2021 08: 36
    I do not think that the Taliban are so frostbitten, they should understand perfectly well that Russia has learned the first lesson and there will be no infantry and ground operations if the CSTO borders are crossed. There will be a washing area for a certain number of kilometers deep into Afgan.
    1. 0
      3 July 2021 12: 00
      The washer won't break?
      1. 0
        4 July 2021 09: 51
        Wait and see
        1. 0
          4 July 2021 21: 01
          Naturally. But something prompts, it is not necessary to bomb there, but to help. The country was practically bombed in the century before last with the filing of the "far-looking" and tongue-tied drivers of the USSR.
          People need to see development prospects at home. This is not done quickly, only "washing areas" can be formed quickly. But that won't solve the problem.
          1. 0
            5 July 2021 09: 15
            I completely agree with you, it is necessary to help if this help is accepted. But judging by the video (somewhere there was) and the comments of the barmaley who was filming, you will first have to sterilize part of the territory. Afghan all its history with someone is at war, there is no external enemy, they are fighting among themselves, so there is such a minority, and nothing can be done about it.
            1. 0
              5 July 2021 21: 38
              At the end of the 80s, there was a situation when they almost put the squeeze on all these "Basmachi". The army could, but it was restrained as best they could. The leadership has already begun to "flirt" with "democracy" and simply were not allowed to bring the matter to an end.
              Recall the formation of Soviet power in the republics. The situation was a bit similar, the central government did not retreat, neither to the Basmachis, nor to their advisers, and the goal was achieved.
              True, the hucksters later still have everything sacred, to which their hands reached out, sold out, torn apart or appropriated, but that's another topic.
              Now the Afghan boomerang can return and not seem a little.
  10. 0
    29 June 2021 08: 43
    In general, this is their own business, internal and there is nothing to go there. Let them decide the questions themselves.
  11. +1
    29 June 2021 09: 58
    Thank God that they are not Bandera.
  12. +2
    29 June 2021 10: 14
    There are related diasporas across the river, and if the Taliban establish their own order, there may be less drugs. It is necessary to make contact, to play on interests and contradictions, to strengthen border control, to establish contacts, but not to meddle. They hope that over time, if the small-shavens and igils do not climb, everything will be fine. You need patience and experienced "respected" authoritative contactees, the east is a delicate matter, Petka.
  13. +2
    29 June 2021 13: 21
    How is the Syrian experience? clean up poop after Americans? Russia has the right to count on the goodwill of the Taliban, after all, the USSR did a lot in its time for the development of Afghanistan. This decree equating the Taliban with terrorists should be canceled. Congratulate the people of Afghanistan who threw off the yoke of occupation and the Taliban who made a significant contribution to the common cause
    1. 0
      3 July 2021 12: 03
      Russia has the right to count on the goodwill of the Taliban,

      Well, yes, of course somewhat indirectly, but it was thanks to Russia that the Talibans came to power.
  14. 0
    29 June 2021 18: 24
    Two giant Buddha statues in Domiana. 6th century.
    They blew up, didn't frown ...
  15. 0
    29 June 2021 20: 48
    One hope is that China will destroy all Taliban and Daisheans.
    1. 0
      2 July 2021 18: 33
      Today I read that the Americans handed over the base in Bagram to the government. This means that soon the Taliban will have military aviation ...