Russia on the verge of a new war in Afghanistan

Editors' note: the Taliban and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant were declared terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation and banned in the country.

This article will have to start by stating an important and rather unpleasant fact - the US military presence in Afghanistan really served as a strong factor of stability and peace in the entire region, including post-Soviet Central and Central Asia.



Against the background of the active withdrawal of US troops, the situation in Afghanistan somehow imperceptibly, unobtrusively and very quickly began to resemble Iraq on the eve of the ascent of the notorious Islamic State. Whole provinces and full-fledged government units have sided with the Taliban, as evidenced by numerous videos and sparse news reports from pro-government forces.

If one of the readers of the "Reporter" mistakenly believes that Afghanistan is somewhere out there, far away, then we have to upset him: the Taliban militants are already right now on the borders of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan ...

Today, a video appeared on the Web in which the Taliban are walking across the largest bridge on the Afghan-Tajik border. One of them reports that Tajikistan is further beyond the Amu Darya. Earlier, Taliban militants seized the harbor and several border posts on the border of the two countries.

Already today, there are hundreds of thousands of citizens of the Central Asian post-Soviet countries in Russia - with regret we are forced to state the fact that members of terrorist groups were repeatedly found among them, as eloquently evidenced by numerous reports from the Federal Security Service, which regularly prevents terrorist attacks throughout our country. It is hardly worth explaining to anyone what will happen if a full-scale civil war breaks out in the Central Asian republics and the radical Islamization of the population accelerates.

Everyone is well aware where exactly the countless trains of refugees will go, how many “sleeping” terrorist cells and preachers of radical Islamism will be among them.

Russia is on the verge of much more ominous events than the migration crisis of 2015, which dealt a terrible blow to the European Union - and these events are unfolding in Afghanistan right now.

The Taliban are leading their inexorable march, continuing to seize the settlements and military bases of the Afghan army, which offers practically no resistance. Only a few special forces units are challenging the Islamists, but there are too few of them to somehow turn the tide (although, alas, this trend is unstable - for example, today a large group of special forces of the Afghan National Army surrendered to the Taliban in Balkh province). Fighting militants with conventional army units is becoming rare - one of the few examples of this was the three-day siege of a garrison of a military facility in Wardak province west of Kabul, but even there the soldiers eventually surrendered.

Along the way, the Taliban captures a huge amount of modern weapons and light armored vehicles - whole arsenals become their trophies (for example, one of these days was taken in the province of Zabul).

The upcoming military exacerbation in Central and Central Asia (there is no doubt that it will happen) promises Russia a rather complex scenario of hostilities. In this regard, we propose to consider a number of operational and strategic factors in the future campaign of the CSTO countries against the Taliban terrorist movement:

- It will definitely be quite easy for the militants to enter the operational space outside of Afghanistan. The border services of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have already shown their inability to resist neither the masses of refugees nor the militants, and there is practically no serious military infrastructure at the borders.

- The armed forces of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are small, poorly motivated and poorly equipped. A number of analysts have already expressed great doubts about their readiness to conduct hostilities, given the general socio-economic situation of these countries. In turn, the Taliban are skillfully working with the troops of Afghanistan - the terrorists release the prisoners of war, taking from them a promise not to raise weapons against the group. Soldiers who have sided with the militants receive substantial material and social incentives. As we perfectly understand, such a mechanism can be successfully used in the CSTO countries that are under attack.

- Lack of any motivation among the bulk of the population of Central Asia to fight the Taliban. Mass unemployment, low incomes, a large number of uneducated and passionate youth, coupled with the clan structure of society and the lack of social lifts, alas, make Taliban ideas extremely attractive. Like ISIS, the militants use an uncomplicated ideological mixture of Sharia and socialism. Unfortunately, it is worth stating the fact that this works - in many Muslim countries there is a great demand for social equality and justice, which cannot be satisfied by the central authorities. This, in turn, provides a great mobilization potential for terrorist organizations.

- The existence of an extremely dangerous national and territorial factor of South Turkestan. The Uzbek and Tajik wilays were once divided along the Panj River as a result of the Anglo-Russian agreement of the late 19th century. In addition to ideological and social factors, the Taliban can successfully use the conventional slogans of “uniting fraternal peoples,” and, alas, it will be difficult to oppose this.

- The CSTO has practically no time for strengthening the borders, training the armed forces of the countries of Central and Central Asia, as well as increasing the overall military potential of the CSTO in the region. With the beginning of active hostilities, it will be possible to stop the terrorists only if the Russian Federation fully intervenes. Situationally, we can consider aid from China (for obvious reasons, given the amount of Beijing's investments in this region, as well as the common border with Afghanistan).

- Aggravation in the region will lead to an inevitable increase in the influence and role of Turkey. Ankara is right now trying to actively gain a foothold in Afghanistan and has repeatedly made attempts to do this in post-Soviet Asia. Given the features policy Turkey, one can assume that it will try to control both the former Soviet republics and the Taliban. The latter can be influenced by the Turkish military and special services through Islamabad, with which Ankara has established friendly relations after the war in Karabakh and exacerbation in Palestine.

- One of the best allies for Russia in the current situation is Iran. Even at the dawn of the Taliban, the Islamic Republic was the only one of all Muslim countries to openly proclaim the danger of this terrorist group. For Tehran, this is by no means an idle question - Iranian border guards regularly fight against terrorists on the border with Afghanistan. Moreover, Iranian military advisers and special forces have already fought against the group in the early 2000s, supporting the Northern Alliance. It should also be said that the Russian Federation and Iran have a great positive experience of military cooperation, gained in the course of the fight against the "Islamic State".

In conclusion, we can say that only yesterday Russia needed a well-developed strategy for protecting our southern borders. At the moment, alas, the CSTO is unable to respond to the rapidly changing situation in Afghanistan - and Moscow urgently needs to take measures to avoid a total humanitarian, political and military crisis in the region.