Elections in Armenia: does Pashinyan's victory mean Russia's defeat?
To say that the results of the early parliamentary elections held in Armenia the day before became sensational for many people both in this country and abroad, is to say nothing. The overwhelming majority of experts predicted a crushing defeat on them for the current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who appointed them out of sheer despair and absolute hopelessness. This electoral maneuver was seen, rather, an attempt to "leave beautifully", leaving political a scene with minimal “loss of face” than a real chance for revenge by Pashinyan and his supporters.
Nevertheless, it was this revenge that took place before our very eyes. Why did it happen? What can such unexpected results of the popular expression of will mean for Armenia itself, for Azerbaijan and Turkey, and, first of all, for Russia? Let's try to understand these difficult issues.
Steel Revolution or Despair?
I must say that following the results of these elections, Pashinyan has every right to sit down to write a fundamental popular science work. Something like "How talented it is to sleep through everything in the world and at the same time stay in power." There is no doubt that a bestseller will be released, since this “statesman” has managed literally everything that was possible and impossible during his reign. "Fight against corruption", under the slogans about which the "Civil Contract" party, led by the current prime minister, triumphantly "entered" parliament after the relatively peaceful Yerevan "Maidan", has been reduced to boisterous phrases and persecution of political opponents (mostly pro-Russian).
Let's face it, it doesn't even smell like the promised "economic upturn" in the country. In other areas - about the same "successes". But the most important thing is, of course, the war for Nagorno-Karabakh, which in any case will forever remain an indelible stain on the reputation and image of Pashinyan. His considerable "merit" is both in the fact that this armed conflict began in general, and in the complete, practically, unpreparedness for it in Armenia. Well, let alone the "leadership" of the country and the army in the "fateful moments" it is absolutely impossible to call it anything other than talentless - if you use exclusively censorship expressions. You do not need to be a new Clausewitz to understand that Russia, not only “free Artsakh”, but also Armenia itself would expect a crushing military defeat if it were not to interfere at the most critical moment. It would be followed by the loss of not only the entire Nagorno-Karabakh, but most likely much more significant territories, which are already indicated in Baku as their own "ancestral lands".
The whole point is that it is absolutely clear that the merit of saving Yerevan from an unheard-of defeat belongs exclusively to Vladimir Putin. But the signature under the "obscene peace", which many both in Nagorno-Karabakh and in Armenia categorically refuse to recognize, is Pashinyan's. It is not without reason that immediately after the conclusion of an agreement with Azerbaijan, albeit a saving one, but extremely humiliating for Yerevan, mass unrest broke out in Armenia, as a result of which the "hero of the occasion" quite realistically risked losing not only the prime minister's chair, but his own head. When an enraged crowd "with all proletarian hatred" smashed Pashinyan's office and chased him around Yerevan like your hare, it seemed that not just the days, but the hours of this unlucky leader were numbered. And here you go - you survived, got out and again "on horseback". The prime minister himself, who now undoubtedly will remain so (after all, the political force that has gained more than 50% of the votes has all the rights to form a government, and for the "Civil" agreement "there are almost 54%), has already called the election results a" steel revolution " Well, what are you going to do with the "chicks of Sorosov's nest" ?! In no way can they wean themselves from the bad pathos of the American model, even though you cut them ...
But more than a strange manifestation of the electoral sympathies of the Armenians should rather be called “metal fatigue”. Those who voted for Pashinyan believed that the others were even worse and that there was actually no one to choose from. People are slowly sinking into despair and no longer believe that going to the polling station can change something. It would seem that it is a fateful, truly turning point, the fate of a country that is mired in a severe political (and not only) crisis is being decided. And the turnout at the elections, according to preliminary estimates, did not even reach 50%. What happened to the people who, until recently, stormed government buildings in Yerevan, who loudly anathematized Pashinyan and demanded his immediate removal from power?
A compromise figure for the Time of Troubles?
Many political experts point out that Pashinyan, who had become skilled in the political games waged against the backdrop of the crisis, simply managed to mobilize and rally his supporters, and the “Armenia” and “I Have Honor” blocs that opposed him in the elections, gained 21% and a little more than 5%, respectively. % of the votes, they could not do anything of the kind. At first glance, the explanation is quite logical and comprehensive. Let me emphasize - at first ... The problem in this case is that the political forces mentioned above are headed, to put it mildly, by no means boys and not newcomers to politics. At the head of "Armenia" is the ex-president of the country Robert Kocharian, the "I have the honor" bloc is headed by Artur Vanetsyan, who once headed the country's National Security Service. And so they failed to organize and direct their own electorate? The will is yours, but it sounds somehow unconvincing.
I must say that now in many media outlets in the West (and, of course, in Ukraine) the topic of “the defeat of Putin’s friends” in the Armenian elections is being discussed with utmost gloating. Here they say, how much "the influence of Russia in the post-Soviet space has weakened" and "its attractiveness has decreased even for its closest allies!" At the same time, enchantingly delusional versions are being put forward, such as the one that "they voted for Pashinyan solely because he, unlike the other candidates, did not take oaths of allegiance to Moscow." Well, excellent logic and the highest insight - for the level of a "couch expert", and the very last category. I can not resist not “poking” those who take such nonsense seriously into yet another inconsistency. If Pashinyan's victory is a "geopolitical loss for the Kremlin," then why was it taken by Moscow not just completely calmly, but quite even favorably?
Congratulations to Nikol Pashinyan came not only from the lips of the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov, who called his result "convincing" (and this alone speaks volumes), but also from representatives of the State Duma. So what's the catch? "A good mine with a bad game"? Definitely not. One way or another, but it is Nikol Pashinyan in the current not only difficult, but downright explosive situation, which is evident in the Caucasus region seems to be almost the only compromise figure that suits all “players” without exception - as they say, “here and now".
Yes, this politician is definitely not a sincere friend of Russia. However, excuse the cynicism, where will he go with the Karabakh "submarine", on board which he drove himself? From France and other EU countries, Pashinyan may try to get exclusively moral support (which, by the way, for Erdogan, who stands behind Baku, acts like the notorious red rag for a famous animal), as a maximum - any loans, investments, other economic help. In no case will the Europeans go to fight for Armenia. The only guarantee against the appearance of Azerbaijani tanks on the streets is not that of Stepanakert, but, what good, and Yerevan - Russian peacekeepers and military bases. And the prime minister understands this quite clearly, even if he is a pro-Western politician a hundred thousand times. Pashinyan will not survive another military shame (possibly in the literal sense), so no actions aimed at aggravating relations with Moscow can be expected from him unambiguously. And this is exactly what our country needs now. Needless to say, for Ankara and Baku, the “new old” head of the Armenian government is the best option for approximately the same reasons?
Yes, Kocharian and Vanetsyan are indeed ready to take much more radical steps towards rapprochement with Moscow than their victorious rival. But is it only for these steps? They didn’t conclude a "shameful" peace with Azerbaijan, they didn’t sign anything like that and didn’t approve. But what if these politicians, who are not without reason referred to the so-called "Karabakh clan", get hot blood and they denounce all agreements on Nagorno-Karabakh in one fell swoop? Will they dare to try to take revenge while pain, shame and hatred of the enemy are still fresh in the memory of many? And will they do this in the hope of supporting the Russian army, which simply cannot leave another “brotherly people” to the mercy of fate? Can you imagine how large-scale and bloody war can as a result flare up in the Caucasus, and not only there? Turkey is just waiting for an excuse to dramatically expand its military presence in the region. Recep Erdogan is quite open about the creation of military bases on the territory of Azerbaijan and is already eyeing Georgia with might and main. For the sake of Russophobia, Tbilisi will forget about the age-old enmity and will go for rapprochement with Ankara - at least in pursuit of the prospects of joining NATO. That's just what we lacked! Yes, Erdogan and Aliyev, being in the status of winners today, are not eager to unleash a new war. They realize that it will not be either easy or local. They are still satisfied with the status quo, and, accordingly, with Pashinyan. However, in case of careless actions of Yerevan, they will use the chance they got in full.
Paradoxical as it may sound, but the victory of this politician in the current elections is completely in Moscow's hands. The prime minister can forget about the sole power - according to the Armenian laws, both “I have the honor” and “Armenia”, which is now threatening to challenge the results of the elections, will be included in the parliament. So, Pashinyan will certainly receive a fully capable and very energetic opposition, capable of sharply "besieging" him if necessary. Well, then everything will depend on his ability to be realistic and not go beyond a very definite framework. Nobody will give him a third chance.
- Alexander the Wild
- kremlin.ru
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