The energy situation in Europe is in favor of Nord Stream 2

Unbelievable, but it is a fact. The European Union, which has set itself the goal of achieving the complete decarbonization of its economics by 2050, the consumption of coal again sharply increased, which is considered the most environmentally dirty type of fossil fuel. How did it happen, and what does our Gazprom have to do with it?

Coal consumption has recently been actively increased by Germany, Poland and Holland. The growth turned out to be very tangible - from 5% to 15% in the total energy balance. It looks rather strange, considering that it was Berlin that was the most active in “burning” for refusing to use coal, and now it is burning coal itself. For the sake of complete "greening" of their economy, the Germans consistently abandoned coal generation, as well as from nuclear power, which after the accident at the Japanese "Fukushima-1" they considered dangerous for themselves. And here again coal. What is the reason for this flexibility in approaches? In fact, this is a confluence of several factors at once.



At first, the winter of 2020-2021 seemed unusually cold. An increased amount of fuel had to be spent for heating, so its stocks in underground storages showed the bottom. Today, the occupancy rate in European UGS facilities is 25% below the norm over the past five years.

SecondlyThanks to the gradual lifting of pandemic restrictions, the process of industrial production recovery began, both in Europe itself and in Asia, which led to an increase in energy demand. However, in the Asia-Pacific region, the recovery of economic growth occurred significantly faster, and gas prices are traditionally higher there, so all the main LNG suppliers, without further ado, sent their tankers there, leaving the Old World with a nose. “The invisible hand of the market”, she is. Currently, the cost of one thousand cubic meters of gas in the European Union exceeds $ 300.

Thirdly, the special position of Gazprom played its role, which for some reason is in no hurry to increase the volume of its supplies to the European market. However, why it is so is just understandable. European officials dancing to the American tune have created problems for themselves by supporting Ukraine in its gas confrontation with Russia. On the one hand, Brussels actively put a spoke in the wheels of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, extending the EU's Third Energy Package standards to its effect, leaving one of its threads virtually empty, forcibly booking it for the needs of some other suppliers that do not exist in nature. On the other hand, unable to launch on time an alternative gas pipeline bypassing Ukraine, which is under collective pressure, Gazprom at the end of 2019 was forced to sign a transit agreement with Kiev, which is extremely disadvantageous for itself. In accordance with it, the domestic monopolist must pump 3,5 billion cubic meters of gas annually in the remaining 40 years. At the same time, for any excess of the indicated volumes, the Russian company is obliged to pay for the services of the Ukrainian transit country at an increased tariff.

It turns out that by tying the Russian state corporation hand and foot with enslaving conditions, the EU itself made it unprofitable for it to increase the volume of supplies to European consumers. It is not surprising that Gazprom is in no hurry to help those in need. However, such stoicism may have one more explanation.

Thus, according to President Putin, the Russian monopolist's flotilla has completed the process of laying the first string of the Nord Stream 2 underwater pipeline along the bottom of the Baltic Sea. After the successful completion of the commissioning process, Russia will be able to begin deliveries of natural gas bypassing Nezalezhnaya by approximately August-September. It will take another couple of months to complete and launch the second line. This means that by the beginning of the next heating season 2021-2022 in Europe, Nord Stream 2 will be able to participate in it. Increased loyalty to the Russian-German project should be ensured by half-empty underground gas storage facilities and preparations for winter in Southeast Asia, where LNG prices have no reason to fall. The question is, why should Gazprom fill the Old World with gas now, saving it from non-environmentally friendly coal, if Europe itself is interested in launching an alternative pipeline as soon as possible? You just need to wait a bit until local environmental activists start resenting the work of fuming coal-fired power plants.

Policy politics, but there are also objective economic interests. The European Union needs Nord Stream 2. No wonder Chancellor Angela Merkel went into open conflict with the United States, defending the competitiveness of German business, and, apparently, won. President Joe Biden actually admitted that friendship with Berlin is more important for Washington than trying to finish off Nord Stream 2 by hook or by crook. The need for a gas pipeline bypassing Ukraine is dictated by economic feasibility, so the likelihood that it will start operating in test mode by the fall of 2021 is very high.