Why Russia should wait with the integration of Belarus


The international scandal caused by the resonant detention of Roman Protasevich with his companion by the Belarusian special services put this country in de facto isolation and closed its hypothetical road to the West. (In any case, under President Lukashenko). Official Minsk has no special prospects, except for real integration with Russia within the framework of the Union State and voluntary renunciation of part of its sovereignty. But should Moscow try to take advantage of the vulnerable position of its difficult partner, and if so, should it be done right now?


For decades, President Lukashenko has skillfully used his status as our only ally in the western direction and knocked out for himself the relying (and not always relying on) bonuses and preferences. From the actual fulfillment of the obligations undertaken under the agreement on the creation of the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, Alexander Grigorievich always skillfully avoided, nodding to the Kremlin either at Europe or at China as alternative partners. However, the door to the West was closed for him personally last year after the European Union and the United States refused to recognize the results of the presidential elections in Belarus. And now Lukashenka has hammered it into nails with his own hands with the story of Protasevich. If you look at the map, Belarus is now surrounded on all sides by hostile states, and only from the East remains a friendly Russia, where the Kremlin is clearly rubbing its hands. Gotcha, my dear! But let's try to think without unnecessary emotions, is it worth taking Belarus right now?

On the one hand, the alignment looks extremely tempting to just miss such an opportunity. Consider that the Kremlin can seize a whole new state with a hardworking population of almost 10 million people. Heavy industry has survived in the country, agriculture is developed. There are export goods that bring foreign exchange earnings: oil products and potash fertilizers. Due to its convenient geographical location, Belarus will be another outpost of the RF Ministry of Defense in the western direction, from where a corridor to the Kaliningrad region opens. And the Belarusians are our people who grew up in the same culture and speak Russian. Tempting, you won’t say anything. But…

On the other hand, such integration, for example, as a new federal district within the Russian Federation, will be extremely negatively perceived in the West, as well as among certain strata of the Belarusian society itself. It would seem, what do we care about the reaction of the European Union or the United States? In theory, none, but let's not forget that not a single neighboring country, except Russia, has recognized the legitimacy of the re-election of President Lukashenko for another term. Moreover, Lithuania has its own alternative "President of the Light", with which you can shake off the dust at any moment and push forward again. If the West didn’t recognize the legality of Alexander Lukashenko’s rule, they don’t recognize either the documents he signed or the subsequent Anschluss of Belarus. This means that the real Union State will be under EU and US sanctions from the very beginning.

And this is serious. About possible economic sanctions against Minsk for the "Protasevich case" have already said in an interview with France Presse, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and policy security Josep Borrell:

On Monday, [EU] heads of state and government asked us to propose sectoral sanctions. <…> Some immediately come to mind - for example, the export of potash fertilizers and the transit of gas purchased from Russia.

That is, the most important articles of Belarusian exports may fall under the restrictions and risk of secondary sanctions. And through Belarus, oil goes to Poland and other countries through the Druzhba pipeline. Flights through Belarus are prohibited, at the same time European airports are closed for Belarusian companies. The country is actually in an air blockade, and the administration of French President Macron is talking about a total transport blockade. For the economy of a small country, this can be a heavy blow. But that's not all. Now Minsk has broken the last plates with Kiev, de facto recognizing Crimea as Russian. It should be reminded that until recently Belarusians flew to the peninsula through Ukraine in principle, so as not to spoil relations with their neighbors. The head of Belavia, Igor Cherginets, commented on this position as follows:

There is probably no need to hide, there should be political recognition of Crimea as [part of] the Russian state. There will be a political decision - we will look.

And now Alexander Grigorievich asked his colleague Vladimir Vladimirovich "to think about how the Belarusians can get to Crimea." He’ll come up with something. So, Lukashenko's readiness to give his airlines permission to fly to the sanctioned Crimea with the permission of Vladimir Putin, and not Vladimir Zelensky, is the actual recognition of the peninsula as part of the Russian Federation, which Minsk has been avoiding all this time. Wonderful. But this will come at a cost, too. Most likely, this will cost Belarus the loss of trade with Ukraine, which is estimated at $ 5 billion a year. Undoubtedly, more sanctions will be thrown in the West. And after all, someone will have to pay for all this, but who? Probably the only ally from the East, and who else.

It turns out that instead of “pawing” at the expense of Belarus, Russia today will receive another financial yoke on its neck. Stop! Nobody is dissuading from the need to create a real Union State of our two countries. But, perhaps, first it is worth holding new elections in Belarus, the results of which will be recognized in the West? And then the signatures under the interstate agreements will be put by a person who does not have such a train of scandals behind his back as Alexander Grigorievich. To wait for the results of the consideration of the "Protasevich case", while toughly defending the interests of our ally and not allowing him to be "kicked by the crowd", and only then make some political decisions. Or not?
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  1. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 2 June 2021 15: 49
    0
    What does the word "integration" mean?
    If I understand correctly, this is a connection. Or the combination of something with something. But Russia is just NOT going to grow into a "new federal district". In the international economy, the word integration has a very definite meaning. This is equalization of tariffs, customs duties and a bunch of other specific material. This is the creation of a "common market for goods and services." But not a loss of sovereignty. For example, the Common Market of Europe does not at all mean the loss of sovereignty by its members. It's not a quick process at all, but a positive one. So integration with Belarus on an economic basis is the goal that Russia has set and has been moving towards it for at least ten years. Put all this in the trash?
  2. Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 2 June 2021 16: 08
    +3
    Integration - yes, no elections.
    Why then ran with a gun without a store? opposite standing in socks on benches? Is it all in vain?

    And the money has already been given, and there will be more ...
  3. radvas Offline radvas
    radvas (Igor) 2 June 2021 16: 25
    +3
    But, perhaps, first it is worth holding new elections in Belarus, the results of which will be recognized in the West?

    Comrade, are you, by any chance, from western Ukraine? Not? One has already waited! And recognition, and Maidan, and a kick in the ass, and housing in Rostov! Okay, not killed ... Do you want this for Old Man? In any case, the West will be against integration, because it does not need Russia, reinforced by Belarus. Delay is like death!
    1. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
      Kofesan (Valery) 2 June 2021 20: 53
      0
      Well said!
  4. Digital error Offline Digital error
    Digital error (Eugene) 2 June 2021 16: 32
    0
    Quote: Bakht
    Put all this in the trash?

    What position in integration will Locoshenko agree to? Plenipotentiary and Extraordinary Representative of the President of the Russian Federation in the Belarusian Federal District? Change the Constitution again? Or send Mishustin to the State Council or the Security Council for promotion? And most importantly, if tens of thousands of protesters no longer walk the streets, this does not mean that there are no more protest moods. And Lukashenka has repeatedly declared to his voters that he is the only one standing in the way of Russia's predatory absorption of Belarus - what about that?
    No, there will be no loco integration, but the costly games for Russian taxpayers will continue.
  5. Alexndr p Offline Alexndr p
    Alexndr p (Alexander) 2 June 2021 16: 38
    +2
    But let's try to think without unnecessary emotions, is it worth taking Belarus right now?

    It's worth it, Sergei. Worth it. And the joint venture is worth completing, about which you wrote so many articles in nothing

    But, perhaps, first it is worth holding new elections in Belarus, the results of which will be recognized in the West?

    I'm even afraid to imagine what the author is ready for yet. But in general, the West is satisfied with his articles and messages. It is the locals who misunderstand them, like me. Cabbage soup because we slurp
  6. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 2 June 2021 17: 25
    +2
    Russia today will receive another financial yoke on its neck.

    - Yes, he will ... - And what ???
    - Russia will get it in any case ... - Yes, Russia and today is constantly forced to support Belarus ...
    - And this support is becoming more and more “financially tangible and tangible” for Russia and everything more and more necessary and necessary for Belarus ... - What can you do ... ) ... - So Russia will have to "support" Belarus for some time ... - Well, what can you do ... - it's just that Belarus itself cannot survive on its own ... at first ... - But then everything can pay off and change for the better ...
    - It is only possible to rejoice ... - as many as ten million people ... - White Slavic hardworking population will appear in Russia !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    - Yes, I don’t mind any money or funds for that !!!!!!!!!!!! - Yes, it's just necessary to rejoice !!!!!!!!!!!!
    - And here ... here ... here all this bagpipes are being bred ... - some sanctions, some kind of discontent from Europe and from the Americans ... - Ha ... - Yes, sneeze, spit repeatedly on all this!!!. - Just sneeze and spit !!!
    1. Alexndr p Offline Alexndr p
      Alexndr p (Alexander) 2 June 2021 17: 43
      0
      for the first time, probably, I agree and put a plus
    2. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) 2 June 2021 20: 51
      0
      So it is that Bulbash will have to stop passing off contraband for their products and admit that Belarusian shrimps do not exist? laughing expensive compensation for deceiving Russia will come out. when Russia did not have enough money for Ukrainians, they fled to the Poles. multi-vector dad is no better.
    3. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
      Kofesan (Valery) 2 June 2021 20: 57
      +1
      Plus you, gorenina91 (Irina), and for a hint of bagpipes, which they are trying to justify and substantiate, one more. The second plus will not be counted, it's understandable, but you know ...

      As a child, my father taught: no strong man can break a broom, but even a child can break a twig ...
  7. Xuli (o) Tebenado 2 June 2021 17: 59
    +2
    There are export goods that bring foreign exchange earnings: petroleum products

    Belarusian oil products are available, but only from Russian oil at a price "cheaper only for nothing."

    And after all, Belarusians are our people who grew up in the same culture and speak Russian.

    After the collapse of the USSR, Russia stuffed at least 20 million of these people (ours, who grew up in the same culture and speaks Russian) living in the former republics, and left them as a snack to local national fascists.

    And now - I don't see even a single hint here that it would be good to ask the Belarusians themselves:
    "Do you want to unite with Russia?" But local patriots spit on such "trifles".
  8. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 2 June 2021 18: 57
    0
    Everything would be so, but .... No elections, under any scenario, will be recognized by the West. Therefore, in the next 10 years, if there is no global cataclysm, when no one cares about everything, just to survive, there will be no unification. And the union state will remain the same fiction.
  9. Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 2 June 2021 19: 03
    +2
    integration within the Union State and voluntary renunciation of part of its sovereignty

    This is how they will agree. Alexander Grigorievich proposed a name for the union state - BELARUS, Belarus + Russia. For incomprehensible ideological reasons, the name did not stick, and no one suggested another that would suit both sides.
    The basic issue of integration is what type of union state was planned to be created when the agreement was signed. It is difficult to combine the public property of Belarus with the capitalist property in the Russian Federation. Lenin outlined the only way to do this in his New Economic Policy and tested it in practice. The result is brilliant. Developing the Lenin program, the PRC achieved outstanding results, but then in the USSR and today in the PRC, reforms went and are under the leadership of the Party of the Proletariat, which was declassified after the victory of Yeltsin's coup d'etat and the restoration of capitalism. Only capitalism remains, and the state is the political organization of the ruling class - the capitalists, based on capitalist ownership of the means of production, on the exploitation of some people and peoples by others. Deprived of the means of production, people are forced to put themselves up for sale and voluntarily go into slavery to their masters who appropriate the surplus value they produce and enrich themselves, becoming Above (!) The State and through a formally free general election, the victorious group of big business governs the state, which becomes an instrument of enrichment and designed to protect their condition from internal inclinations of slaves and external aggression.
    The fundamental issue of integration is how the union state is seen by the ruling class of Belarus and the Russian Federation. The state structure and form of government depend on this.
    The main point of possible integration is finance, money circulation, everything else is derivative - entrepreneurship, lending, pricing, taxation, social policy, etc.
    Clear answers are somehow not visible and everything boils down to verbiage about the brotherhood of peoples, historical community, the well-being of the people, economic cooperation, etc. Without answering the questions, all integration will simply be reduced to the absorption of one state by another, which is what the Western propaganda industry is talking about.
  10. zenion Offline zenion
    zenion (zinovy) 2 June 2021 21: 44
    0
    Donetsk missed. And Belarus with its machinery is like Czechoslovakia for Hitler. You need to protect everything before it's too late, before the ticks come together.
  11. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 3 June 2021 06: 37
    0
    Quote: Alexander P
    I'm even afraid to imagine what the author is ready for yet. But in general, the West is satisfied with his articles and messages. It is the locals who misunderstand them, like me. Cabbage soup because we slurp

    Well, keep on sipping hi
  12. wolf46 Offline wolf46
    wolf46 3 June 2021 09: 50
    +1
    Now or never - such a wording of the question of the integration of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus should be put: let there be 6 (?) Subsidized Russian regions than "sovereign" Belarus. The further in time, the higher the chance of getting a second anti-Russia on the western border.
  13. it is necessary to join the east, Russians live there and hate Russo-Bells
  14. Azat Mambetov Offline Azat Mambetov
    Azat Mambetov (Azat Mambetov) 4 June 2021 06: 43
    +1
    An article of a coward and a podophile. Wolves are afraid not to go to the forest.
  15. Vladest Offline Vladest
    Vladest (Vladimir) 4 June 2021 14: 34
    -2
    And how do the Belarusians themselves feel about integration, or are they Lukashenka's flock of sheep?
  16. marciz Offline marciz
    marciz (Stas) 11 June 2021 23: 20
    0
    Dirt and Belarus with your chocks !!! ???