I am finishing the saga about SP-2. IN first In part, I talked about how Alzheimer's played into the hands of the Kremlin, and how the dexterous Biden wooed Congress. And in second told how Gazprom got the hang of it. Today is the final part, where we will talk about the victims of the launch of the SP-2. I can already hear them screaming: “Chief, it's all gone! The plaster is removed, the client is leaving! "
For whom does the SP-2 bell toll?
Is it a problem for Gazprom that some of the early European policy suffer from congenital dementia? I think no, in the end, the matter of saving the drowning is the work of the drowning themselves, and it is not Gazprom's fault that one of the Eastern European leaders suffers from a self-harm mania. The first to shoot himself in the foot was the Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, who in 2014, under pressure from the United States, refused to lay South Stream through the territory of his country, and with the advent of its Turkish counterpart, now biting his elbows and calculating losses, and this, on wait a second, more than 400 million euros per year (according to the most conservative estimates of experts, in the first 25 years of the pipeline's operation, Bulgaria could receive about € 16,7 billion in the form of transit fees, taxes and other payments). About Ukraine, where this dementia has taken extreme forms, somehow I don’t even want to talk. These comrades, who are no longer comrades to us, shot themselves not even in the leg, but in the mouth, and now for 7 years they have been running around with a hole in their heads in the backyard of Europe, trying to attract attention, but no one cares about them, in general European at home, everyone thinks, first of all, of himself.
And now Slovakia, which previously received Russian gas through the gas transportation system of Ukraine (and allegedly "sold" it to the country of zhovto-blakit benches through a virtual reverse), and which, it would seem, completely depends on Nezalezhnaya in terms of supplies of Russian blue fuel, is now happily rubbing hands in anticipation of fabulous profits, which she can get from the land of evergreen tomatoes, replacing the virtual reverse with a real one. The thing is that the dastardly Gazprom, realizing that the connection of the SP-2 and the redirection of gas transport flows from the Ukrainian direction to the north deprives Slovakia of guaranteed revenues from the transit of Russian gas to Europe in the amount of 800 million euros / year, back in 2017 concluded with her The Eustream gas transmission company provides a framework agreement, according to which Slovakia is guaranteed until October 1, 2050, to receive Russian fuel through a system of European transit interconnectors powered by SP-2. After that, the virtual reverse of Russian gas to Ukraine will order to live a long time, and Ukraine, allegedly not buying aggressor gas since 2015, will have to really find out what it is by switching to purchasing all the same Russian gas from Slovakia, moreover, at the price that it will indicate already the Slovak side. And she will not be stingy in this, you can not even doubt how she will beat off all her transit revenues, which fell through the fault of Ukraine, especially since Gazprom helped her in this, agreeing to a higher tariff for pumping gas in order to compensate for her possible losses (then that this will also affect Ukraine, so who is her doctor, she herself wanted it).
The Czech Republic has recently set off along the path of Bulgaria and Ukraine, deliberately refusing to purchase Russian vaccines and Rosatom's services during the construction of the 5th power unit of its nuclear power plant. We do not even discuss the fact that Westinghouse services will cost it several times more, Czech nuclear scientists generally have doubts that someone other than Rosatom could have undertaken this, given that the first 4 units of the Dukovany NPP were built by Soviet atomic scientists, and problems with disposal of spent nuclear fuel has not been canceled. Well, let's not once again remember here about the orphaned and the poor.
The clouds rose over Poland
But how the proud gentry turned out to be among them is another story. The Ukrainians, who fear and quite reasonably have a real reverse, have nothing to fear, at least until the end of the current agreement between Gazprom and Naftogaz, which regulates the guaranteed pumping through the territory of Ukraine towards the EU at least 40 billion cubic meters of gas per year. The contract is concluded for five years through 2024 inclusively on the European "pump or pay" principle, so Gazprom will pay in any case, even if, for some reason, it does not pump the contracted volume of gas, in case of exceeding the agreed figure of 40 billion cubic meters of gas / Gazprom will pay 20% more a year (with a 1,2 multiplier). Time will tell what will happen after 2024, but Gazprom's plans do not include deliberate zeroing of the Ukrainian route, given the presence of four colossal underground gas storage facilities on the territory of Nezalezhnaya with a total volume of 31 billion cubic meters, which make it possible to vary gas supplies to Europe by pumping it into them. in the summer at the lowest price and smoothing the peaks of gas consumption in winter, when the demand for it abruptly increases (which neither Turkish Stream nor Severny can provide, given their maximum throughput). Therefore, the future of Ukrainians is very optimistic if they do not want to shoot themselves in the head again. But over the Poles, with the introduction of the SP-2 at full capacity, very real clouds run the risk of thickening.
And, as always, the Poles themselves are to blame, for whom the feeling of their own exclusivity does not allow them to eat and sleep. Driven solely by this feeling, a year ago they refused to prolong the long-term agreement with Gazprom on the transit of Russian gas through their territory via the Yamal-EU gas pipeline, which expired in May 2020, in effect since the 90s of the last century, inviting everyone to book short-term capacities for gas transit through the territory of Poland from the local operator Gaz-System according to European energy rules, according to the norms of the 3rd energy package, when the price is formed by the market in the course of bidding at the relevant auctions, as a compromise between the supply and demand of all those wishing to buy these capacities, in accordance with their needs (for a day, for a month, for a quarter). And Gazprom, despite the fact that it was the only one willing to participate in these auctions, had to play by their rules, so as not to frustrate its obligations to gas recipients in the EU.
But with the commissioning of SP-2 at its design capacity, the situation may radically change. And not even for our Ukrainian non-brothers, but for the snickering Polish gentry, who in advance are already frightening Gazprom with the refusal from 2022 of its pipeline gas, threatening to switch to similar Norwegian and American LNG. I just want to tell them: “Go ahead and sing, guys! All the best! ”, Considering the cost of American LNG and the fact that gas fields on the Norwegian continental shelf of the North and Norwegian Seas have been in operation since the late 60s and tend to be developed. In the Barents Sea, no matter how much they searched, they did not find anything interesting, and in the North and Norwegian Seas the shelf is already explored by more than 80%. Old deposits, as they are developed, become difficult to recover, and there are fewer and fewer newly discovered wells, it is not for nothing that ExxonMobil left the Norwegian projects, disillusioned with them. It is possible that the Baltic Pipe, which is being advertised by the Poles, with its capacity of 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year, will have nothing to fill.
At the end of last year, the Polish oil and gas monopoly PGNiG, having trumpeted the whole world about the new Warka gas condensate field discovered by it together with ConocoPhillips on the Norwegian section of the Norwegian Sea shelf, boasted that this is the largest gas field discovered in 2020, modestly keeping silent that Warka reserves are estimated in the range from 8 to 30 billion cubic meters of gas and gas condensate. This is for 3 years of Baltic Pipe operation, and then what?
And then it will be necessary to fall at the feet of either the Americans with their LNG, or Gazprom. I'm not saying anything that American LNG does not exist in nature, it is simply produced on their territory, but in fact it belongs to the companies that bought it, not of American origin, and they will take it to where they pay more, and this is not Europe at all, but premium markets of SEA. In addition, even if you close your eyes and imagine that something like this has happened (well, what does not happen in life ?!), and LNG carriers with LNG of unknown origin (maybe even Russian!) Will go to the Polish terminals, then it is worth remembering that the capacity of the Poles' only LNG terminal in Swinoujscie currently has 5 billion cubic meters of gas / year with the possibility of expanding to 7,5 billion. And even if they manage to do this, plus launch a new floating LNG terminal in Gdansk with a capacity of 4,5 billion cubic meters of gas per year, then their total capacity after that will be only 12 billion cubic meters of gas, which, given their own gas demand of 10 billion gas per year, clearly will not help the Poles fill their own pipe, which is a logical continuation of the Yamal-EU gas pipeline. And then what?
And then payback will come for the arrogance and Russophobia that we experience all the time of our neighborhood with this ungrateful state. And it is not even Ukraine that will suffer from the opening at full capacity of the two "Nord Streams" (by 2025 it may disappear altogether from the political map of the world, if things go on like this), but narcissistic Poland, which will find out on its own skin that the same the vaunted European 3rd energy package will be able to work against it when no one comes to the auction announced by it for the sale of its operator's transit capacities. For the simple reason that apart from Gazprom, there is simply no one to pump gas through its section of the pipe. You can even nationalize it, writing off all this to the mythical debts of Gazprom, which you got rid of in the Stockholm Arbitration, without gas it is just a piece of iron, you can dig it up and turn it into scrap metal, taking down the remaining monuments to Soviet soldiers-liberators along the way in a fit of hatred, it won't help you anyway. Because the capacity of SP-2 is 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year, even if we divide it in half, according to the requirements of the 3rd energy package, it will turn out to be 27,5 billion cubic meters, and the capacity of the Yamal-EU gas pipeline is 33 billion cubic meters of gas per year. But this is at the entry point into Poland, and at the exit point there are only 29. And I have a feeling that if Gazprom abandons this route, then its customers in the EU will not even notice it (the missing 1,5 billion cubic meters, believe me, he will find what and how to replace, at least with the same LNG). But proud Poles will no longer be able to survive this. For which they will be able to say special thanks to their Russophobic government, which followed in the footsteps of Gogol's non-commissioned officer's widow. But these will no longer be our problems.
Who else wants to say something against SP-2? To all Tabaki, who climb in front of Sher Khan to prove their loyalty to him, I suggest that you first listen to his press secretary:
The United States is not ready to call the landing of Ryanair flight in Minsk a hijacking or talk about sanctions against Belarus
- said the press secretary of the President of the United States Jen Psaki.
This is for the information of everyone who wants to extend the sanctions against the Republic of Belarus to the Russian Federation and the SP-2.