The hidden role of Nord Stream 2. Russia will leave Poland without gas


I am finishing the saga about SP-2. IN first In part, I talked about how Alzheimer's played into the hands of the Kremlin, and how the dexterous Biden wooed Congress. And in second told how Gazprom got the hang of it. Today is the final part, where we will talk about the victims of the launch of the SP-2. I can already hear them screaming: “Chief, it's all gone! The plaster is removed, the client is leaving! "


For whom does the SP-2 bell toll?


Is it a problem for Gazprom that some of the early European policy suffer from congenital dementia? I think no, in the end, the matter of saving the drowning is the work of the drowning themselves, and it is not Gazprom's fault that one of the Eastern European leaders suffers from a self-harm mania. The first to shoot himself in the foot was the Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, who in 2014, under pressure from the United States, refused to lay South Stream through the territory of his country, and with the advent of its Turkish counterpart, now biting his elbows and calculating losses, and this, on wait a second, more than 400 million euros per year (according to the most conservative estimates of experts, in the first 25 years of the pipeline's operation, Bulgaria could receive about € 16,7 billion in the form of transit fees, taxes and other payments). About Ukraine, where this dementia has taken extreme forms, somehow I don’t even want to talk. These comrades, who are no longer comrades to us, shot themselves not even in the leg, but in the mouth, and now for 7 years they have been running around with a hole in their heads in the backyard of Europe, trying to attract attention, but no one cares about them, in general European at home, everyone thinks, first of all, of himself.

And now Slovakia, which previously received Russian gas through the gas transportation system of Ukraine (and allegedly "sold" it to the country of zhovto-blakit benches through a virtual reverse), and which, it would seem, completely depends on Nezalezhnaya in terms of supplies of Russian blue fuel, is now happily rubbing hands in anticipation of fabulous profits, which she can get from the land of evergreen tomatoes, replacing the virtual reverse with a real one. The thing is that the dastardly Gazprom, realizing that the connection of the SP-2 and the redirection of gas transport flows from the Ukrainian direction to the north deprives Slovakia of guaranteed revenues from the transit of Russian gas to Europe in the amount of 800 million euros / year, back in 2017 concluded with her The Eustream gas transmission company provides a framework agreement, according to which Slovakia is guaranteed until October 1, 2050, to receive Russian fuel through a system of European transit interconnectors powered by SP-2. After that, the virtual reverse of Russian gas to Ukraine will order to live a long time, and Ukraine, allegedly not buying aggressor gas since 2015, will have to really find out what it is by switching to purchasing all the same Russian gas from Slovakia, moreover, at the price that it will indicate already the Slovak side. And she will not be stingy in this, you can not even doubt how she will beat off all her transit revenues, which fell through the fault of Ukraine, especially since Gazprom helped her in this, agreeing to a higher tariff for pumping gas in order to compensate for her possible losses (then that this will also affect Ukraine, so who is her doctor, she herself wanted it).

The Czech Republic has recently set off along the path of Bulgaria and Ukraine, deliberately refusing to purchase Russian vaccines and Rosatom's services during the construction of the 5th power unit of its nuclear power plant. We do not even discuss the fact that Westinghouse services will cost it several times more, Czech nuclear scientists generally have doubts that someone other than Rosatom could have undertaken this, given that the first 4 units of the Dukovany NPP were built by Soviet atomic scientists, and problems with disposal of spent nuclear fuel has not been canceled. Well, let's not once again remember here about the orphaned and the poor.

The clouds rose over Poland


But how the proud gentry turned out to be among them is another story. The Ukrainians, who fear and quite reasonably have a real reverse, have nothing to fear, at least until the end of the current agreement between Gazprom and Naftogaz, which regulates the guaranteed pumping through the territory of Ukraine towards the EU at least 40 billion cubic meters of gas per year. The contract is concluded for five years through 2024 inclusively on the European "pump or pay" principle, so Gazprom will pay in any case, even if, for some reason, it does not pump the contracted volume of gas, in case of exceeding the agreed figure of 40 billion cubic meters of gas / Gazprom will pay 20% more a year (with a 1,2 multiplier). Time will tell what will happen after 2024, but Gazprom's plans do not include deliberate zeroing of the Ukrainian route, given the presence of four colossal underground gas storage facilities on the territory of Nezalezhnaya with a total volume of 31 billion cubic meters, which make it possible to vary gas supplies to Europe by pumping it into them. in the summer at the lowest price and smoothing the peaks of gas consumption in winter, when the demand for it abruptly increases (which neither Turkish Stream nor Severny can provide, given their maximum throughput). Therefore, the future of Ukrainians is very optimistic if they do not want to shoot themselves in the head again. But over the Poles, with the introduction of the SP-2 at full capacity, very real clouds run the risk of thickening.

And, as always, the Poles themselves are to blame, for whom the feeling of their own exclusivity does not allow them to eat and sleep. Driven solely by this feeling, a year ago they refused to prolong the long-term agreement with Gazprom on the transit of Russian gas through their territory via the Yamal-EU gas pipeline, which expired in May 2020, in effect since the 90s of the last century, inviting everyone to book short-term capacities for gas transit through the territory of Poland from the local operator Gaz-System according to European energy rules, according to the norms of the 3rd energy package, when the price is formed by the market in the course of bidding at the relevant auctions, as a compromise between the supply and demand of all those wishing to buy these capacities, in accordance with their needs (for a day, for a month, for a quarter). And Gazprom, despite the fact that it was the only one willing to participate in these auctions, had to play by their rules, so as not to frustrate its obligations to gas recipients in the EU.

But with the commissioning of SP-2 at its design capacity, the situation may radically change. And not even for our Ukrainian non-brothers, but for the snickering Polish gentry, who in advance are already frightening Gazprom with the refusal from 2022 of its pipeline gas, threatening to switch to similar Norwegian and American LNG. I just want to tell them: “Go ahead and sing, guys! All the best! ”, Considering the cost of American LNG and the fact that gas fields on the Norwegian continental shelf of the North and Norwegian Seas have been in operation since the late 60s and tend to be developed. In the Barents Sea, no matter how much they searched, they did not find anything interesting, and in the North and Norwegian Seas the shelf is already explored by more than 80%. Old deposits, as they are developed, become difficult to recover, and there are fewer and fewer newly discovered wells, it is not for nothing that ExxonMobil left the Norwegian projects, disillusioned with them. It is possible that the Baltic Pipe, which is being advertised by the Poles, with its capacity of 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year, will have nothing to fill.

At the end of last year, the Polish oil and gas monopoly PGNiG, having trumpeted the whole world about the new Warka gas condensate field discovered by it together with ConocoPhillips on the Norwegian section of the Norwegian Sea shelf, boasted that this is the largest gas field discovered in 2020, modestly keeping silent that Warka reserves are estimated in the range from 8 to 30 billion cubic meters of gas and gas condensate. This is for 3 years of Baltic Pipe operation, and then what?

And then it will be necessary to fall at the feet of either the Americans with their LNG, or Gazprom. I'm not saying anything that American LNG does not exist in nature, it is simply produced on their territory, but in fact it belongs to the companies that bought it, not of American origin, and they will take it to where they pay more, and this is not Europe at all, but premium markets of SEA. In addition, even if you close your eyes and imagine that something like this has happened (well, what does not happen in life ?!), and LNG carriers with LNG of unknown origin (maybe even Russian!) Will go to the Polish terminals, then it is worth remembering that the capacity of the Poles' only LNG terminal in Swinoujscie currently has 5 billion cubic meters of gas / year with the possibility of expanding to 7,5 billion. And even if they manage to do this, plus launch a new floating LNG terminal in Gdansk with a capacity of 4,5 billion cubic meters of gas per year, then their total capacity after that will be only 12 billion cubic meters of gas, which, given their own gas demand of 10 billion gas per year, clearly will not help the Poles fill their own pipe, which is a logical continuation of the Yamal-EU gas pipeline. And then what?

And then payback will come for the arrogance and Russophobia that we experience all the time of our neighborhood with this ungrateful state. And it is not even Ukraine that will suffer from the opening at full capacity of the two "Nord Streams" (by 2025 it may disappear altogether from the political map of the world, if things go on like this), but narcissistic Poland, which will find out on its own skin that the same the vaunted European 3rd energy package will be able to work against it when no one comes to the auction announced by it for the sale of its operator's transit capacities. For the simple reason that apart from Gazprom, there is simply no one to pump gas through its section of the pipe. You can even nationalize it, writing off all this to the mythical debts of Gazprom, which you got rid of in the Stockholm Arbitration, without gas it is just a piece of iron, you can dig it up and turn it into scrap metal, taking down the remaining monuments to Soviet soldiers-liberators along the way in a fit of hatred, it won't help you anyway. Because the capacity of SP-2 is 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year, even if we divide it in half, according to the requirements of the 3rd energy package, it will turn out to be 27,5 billion cubic meters, and the capacity of the Yamal-EU gas pipeline is 33 billion cubic meters of gas per year. But this is at the entry point into Poland, and at the exit point there are only 29. And I have a feeling that if Gazprom abandons this route, then its customers in the EU will not even notice it (the missing 1,5 billion cubic meters, believe me, he will find what and how to replace, at least with the same LNG). But proud Poles will no longer be able to survive this. For which they will be able to say special thanks to their Russophobic government, which followed in the footsteps of Gogol's non-commissioned officer's widow. But these will no longer be our problems.

Who else wants to say something against SP-2? To all Tabaki, who climb in front of Sher Khan to prove their loyalty to him, I suggest that you first listen to his press secretary:

The United States is not ready to call the landing of Ryanair flight in Minsk a hijacking or talk about sanctions against Belarus

- said the press secretary of the President of the United States Jen Psaki.

This is for the information of everyone who wants to extend the sanctions against the Republic of Belarus to the Russian Federation and the SP-2.
29 comments
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  1. marciz Offline marciz
    marciz (Stas) 31 May 2021 12: 17
    -15%
    While Russia is making long-term plans, it will itself disappear from the world map!
    1. NoN importa Offline NoN importa
      NoN importa (NoN importa) 31 May 2021 13: 39
      +5
      You have been mentioned for 300 years already in a dismissive tone in the historical essays of Russian writers. predictors XD
      1. Vladest Offline Vladest
        Vladest (Vladimir) 4 June 2021 19: 34
        -5
        Quote: NoN importa
        you've been like that for 300 years

        This is the third reincarnation. The newborn RF is only 30 years old.
        And the United States will celebrate 250 years from now in molasses.
    2. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Wolf) 31 May 2021 17: 57
      +8
      While Russia will make long-term plans, it will disappear from the world map itself!

      Recently, I have noticed that people who do not even know Russian are shouting loudest about the death of the Russian Federation. The trouble is simple! And these people teach us how to live ?!
      1. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
        Kofesan (Valery) 31 May 2021 22: 38
        -4
        But what's the difference "know" or "poorly" own, or even "not in the tooth with a foot"?
        The main thing is what they say? Meaning, so to speak!
        But they say, for example, that the son of Peskov, who "mustache"

        Nikolai, 31, the son of Russian President's press secretary Dmitry Peskov, has decided to start trading Russian timber and building materials. The newly-made timber merchant took the Turkish businessman Shirin Kuliyev as his comrades-in-arms in the business

        No, it's not bad. "Business and all that". Only now I would like to know how things are going with the felling and export of raw timber. More recently, they announced long-term plans (fuuu, it was not sealed, thank God, it got through ...), and about the fight against illegal deforestation and plans, plans, plans ... In my opinion, you also squeezed an article about it here. Or not you?

        In any case - thanks for the "comprehensive information content"! On grammar.

        If you screwed up anywhere, you are already there, this ... excuse me, we are dark people, and only readers ... and never "writers". And even more so not for money, that is, not "professionals."

        Fuuu! How many bukoffs I had to print! ... Sorry in front of you, we ask - "guru" of literature!
        1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
          Volkonsky (Wolf) 1 June 2021 05: 18
          +3
          he seemed to be answering the marquis, but here is a kofesan ... what an obsession? father, son and holy spirit? one in three persons? and what does Peskov's son have to do with it? the son does not answer for his father, especially since he left them with his mother, out of grief he went through the forest ...
          1. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
            Kofesan (Valery) 1 June 2021 07: 07
            -4
            Do not worry! I'm not "from hell". And not even from a snuffbox. And if it seems to you that there is a smell of sulfur in the air, start producing holy water. It is desirable on an industrial scale. You can do it.

            PS What about

            what does the son of Peskov have to do with it

            ... here you hit the mark. In the most, that neither is, "essence". I promise to improve and not write such long posts. For even "professionals" read them without delving into them. If they read at all ...! repeat
            1. Astronaut Offline Astronaut
              Astronaut (San Sanych) 2 June 2021 18: 14
              +1
              Have you read the business plan of Peskov's son? Have you checked their felling tickets? To just wag your tongue!
          2. marciz Offline marciz
            marciz (Stas) 2 June 2021 23: 53
            0
            He tells you about fools and traitors !!! You have to think with your head !!! And then it is individuals with one gyrus sitting here and then from their caps and ponder !!!
        2. reynor 77 Offline reynor 77
          reynor 77 (reynor 77) 1 June 2021 20: 06
          +5
          What are "long-term plans"?
          I heard about long-running plans, but not about long-running ones. All the same, you need to live in a Russian-speaking environment in order not to make such mistakes, my foreign "colleague".
          1. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
            Kofesan (Valery) 1 June 2021 20: 21
            -5
            Tryndet is not necessary ... Not on "business". And you are not a "colleague" to me
            1. Astronaut Offline Astronaut
              Astronaut (San Sanych) 2 June 2021 18: 17
              0
              What a "colleague" you are, you are a Banderaite, whose ancestors Sudoplatov regretted!
              1. marciz Offline marciz
                marciz (Stas) 2 June 2021 23: 56
                0
                You Pavel Anatolyevich and then spread rot "grateful descendants" !!!
      2. marciz Offline marciz
        marciz (Stas) 2 June 2021 23: 50
        0
        Well, if you are typing on a computer, then I am from a smartphone, explain further !?
      3. marciz Offline marciz
        marciz (Stas) 3 June 2021 00: 10
        -1
        And what about your writers in the Russian language, a century or even longer ago !? And this is FSE !? What to be proud of, the fact that it is the most difficult!?
      4. Vladest Offline Vladest
        Vladest (Vladimir) 4 June 2021 19: 42
        -3
        Spelling and intelligence are two different things. If you have enough life experience of observing others, then you will notice that the correct scribes are often very dumb.
        In 1917, Russia changed power twice. The USSR died in 1991. How can you believe that the Russian Federation will not suffer a possible fate?
        Surely, both in 1916 and in 1990, they were confident that the Republic of Ingushetia and the USSR will be forever.
        I personally do not believe that anything fatal can happen to the Russian Federation. Was and will be. There is no strength and no need to change something in the country.
        At the moment, the history of the Russian Federation is a brake on the state, the growth rates are lower than the world ones, and this is a lag. In politics, as in sports, the backlog of the enemy is enough not to worry.
        Or hasn't Putin talked about this more than once?
    3. Galina Pigareva Offline Galina Pigareva
      Galina Pigareva (Galina Pigareva) 1 June 2021 06: 45
      +3
      Quote: marciz
      While Russia is making long-term plans, it will itself disappear from the world map!

      How many such predictors have been in the entire history of Russia? Which one are you? And Russia lives on.
      1. marciz Offline marciz
        marciz (Stas) 2 June 2021 23: 58
        -1
        Previously, there were no such technologies, and you were serfs where they were driven there and fled, and won !!
    4. bobba94 Offline bobba94
      bobba94 (Vladimir) 1 June 2021 13: 45
      +4
      Steinglitz, looking out the window, asked:
      - What was it called before?
      - Warsaw Voivodeship, Herr Major.
      - No, this whole country?
      Pan Dushkevich turned red.

      Film "Shield and Sword" 1968
    5. alexey alexeyev_2 (Alexey Alekseev) 1 June 2021 20: 59
      +1
      Heh ... The oracle is bastard. How many of you were there and where are you. And Russia stands ..
    6. Astronaut Offline Astronaut
      Astronaut (San Sanych) 2 June 2021 18: 11
      +1
      Many of you stinking here are now trying to "erase" Russia from the map of the world ... Where are their remains? The crows have taken away!
    7. Wolf Offline Wolf
      Wolf (igor sagittarius) 4 June 2021 15: 46
      0
      F.M.Dostoevsky "" apparently wrote about you
    8. The comment was deleted.
  2. John Hart Offline John Hart
    John Hart (John Hart) 31 May 2021 21: 37
    -8
    strange and people whose dreams have come true whole below the belt of the Polish rulers so that they allow them to sell their gas, discrepancy, or only about shooting in America can their magazines write?
  3. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
    Kofesan (Valery) 31 May 2021 21: 56
    -8
    Clouds ...

    It would be a very correct decision ... But ...

    When it "leaves" Poland without gas, then we'll see. Only when will it be? Tomorrow? In the meantime, "breakfasts", in the style of Rogozin, we were simply fed.

    And what else should "them" do if the "afternoon tea" is rotten, lunch is not coming soon, and supper may not be there?
    That's right - "Feed" tomorrow's "breakfasts". For lack of an alternative.

    And there, you see, either the donkey dies, or the padishah

    And who will remember this "soon"? If nothing happens.
    1. Galina Pigareva Offline Galina Pigareva
      Galina Pigareva (Galina Pigareva) 1 June 2021 06: 48
      +2
      Clouds ...

      It would be a very correct decision ... But ...

      And what else should "them" do if the "afternoon tea" is rotten, lunch is not coming soon, and supper may not be there?

      And you switch to three meals a day: Monday, Wednesday, Friday. Sunday is a fasting day.
      1. marciz Offline marciz
        marciz (Stas) 3 June 2021 00: 06
        -2
        Why are you so funny !? You are now not a great nation in history !!! You are now SLAVES OF JEWS that in itself has never been in history BUT you "clever" have contrived !!!! They work two jobs heh hard workers !!!
  4. Wolf Offline Wolf
    Wolf (igor sagittarius) 4 June 2021 15: 25
    -1
    Yeah, cool, the author unfolded the topic ........ especially

    These comrades, who are no longer comrades to us, shot themselves not even in the leg, but in the mouth, and now for 7 years they have been running around with a hole in their heads in the backyard of Europe, trying to attract attention.

    Full house with Petrosyan and Stepanyan lands in a deep knockout. I give 5 to the author for knowledge of the material and creative approach to presentation.
  5. Vladest Offline Vladest
    Vladest (Vladimir) 4 June 2021 19: 31
    -3
    Declaring this, for the sake of solidity, the author must promise that if this happens, he will eat, for example, his socks after a week of wearing. And then with the words of Putin about Peskov, "Another time it brings such a blizzard!"
  6. NoN importa Offline NoN importa
    NoN importa (NoN importa) 4 June 2021 20: 26
    0
    Quote: Vladest
    Quote: NoN importa
    you've been like that for 300 years

    This is the third reincarnation. The newborn RF is only 30 years old.
    And the United States will celebrate 250 years from now in molasses.

    what a funny Estonian toxic. you are deliberately manipulating the notion of liquidation or change in the number of allied countries. do not worry, they will figure it out without your opinion