Sly Miller and sly Putin. Who won the delay in the launch of Nord Stream 2

В previous text I told how the clever Biden wooed the US Congress, playing into the hands of Moscow (who is their Kremlin agent, I am already at a loss, it seems that they have this position passing along with the keys to the Oval Office). In this present I will tell you how Gazprom got used to this business. Believe me, the story is not only fascinating, but also instructive.

There is no gas, and there will be no gas! Cold spring 2021

I'll start a little from afar. On May 15 this year, for the first time since Eurostat has been keeping statistics, a very extraordinary event happened: the price per thousand cubic meters of natural gas at the TTF hub (Holland) exceeded the prices of mid-January. Then, during the period of an abnormally cold winter for Europe, they reached the mark of $ 342 / thousand cubic meters, but now, during the period of an abnormally "warm" spring, they went off scale for the mark of $ 348 / thousand cubic meters. "What nonsense?" - thought Stirlitz. Frau Merkel thought the same thing. The fact is that in early April (1-2 days) European gas traders usually started filling their underground gas storage facilities (UGS), preparing for the next heating season, taking advantage of low fuel prices, which were usually established by that time. In the same anomalous year, when the cold winter of 2021 smoothly flowed into the cold spring of 2021, the amount of gas taken from the storage facilities exceeded the amount pumped in the opposite direction until the third decade of April. The situation changed for the better only on the 20th, and the excess in favor of the injection turned out to be purely symbolic - only 0,1%. The reason is trivial to tears - there is no gas, and it is expensive. Moreover, it is in this sequence - it is expensive, because it does not exist. How did Europe come to this life?

The explanation is also trivial and it lies in the recent past. Throughout 2019, against the backdrop of the confrontation between the Russian Federation and Ukraine over the transit agreement between Gazprom and Naftogaz for the supply of Russian gas to the EU, Europe, not knowing how it would end, was filled with Russian gas for future use, clogging all its own and Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities under the neck. The year 2020 has come. The agreement, thank God, was signed on December 31, 2019, but the year was not only abnormally warm, but also coronavirus, gas consumption fell along with the price of it. For those who have forgotten, let me remind you that exactly a year ago the price per thousand cubic meters of gas at the same Dutch TTF hub dropped to $ 100 and even lower. Which immediately allowed Ukraine to complain to its grown-up uncles about Gazprom, how bad it is, how he mocked it, having previously supplied it with its aggressor gas at a price of $ 425 / thousand cubic meters, which even with a $ 100 discount for finding an enemy fleet on its territory (remember those famous Kharkiv agreements of Yanukovych?) Was 325 dollars / thousand cubic meters, which is the limit of Russian obscurantism against the background of real 100 dollars. But now, thank God, she has thrown off this yoke and since 2015 she has been buying European democratic gas with atoms of freedom for his real money, without overpaying to the vile aggressor. Let's leave it out of the brackets that the country of zhovto-blakitny benches bought the same aggressive gas only more expensive, overpaying for a non-existent virtual reverse. Gazprom actually suffered losses. And although 40% of its gas was supplied to Europe under long-term contracts with a fixed price pegged to the price of a barrel of oil, it still sold 60% on the spot market, and there the price did not please either Miller or Putin.

What was the Kremlin to do? Let's also launch SP-2 sooner in order to further increase the supply and thereby lower the gas price even lower. How many reproaches Putin has listened to that he is a fool, how Trump threw him from the SP-2, and how will everyone who wants to wipe their feet about him now? There even a queue of people wishing to wipe their feet lined up, and Poland and Lithuania asked that they no longer be borrowed. You remember this round-the-world odyssey of "Academician Chersky" around Africa, across the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans, accompanied by convoy warships, calling at all possible ports. It would seem much easier to launch it through the Northern Sea Route, which is two times shorter, and would save both time and money. But the "stupid" Putin was in no hurry for something. In the meantime, the fierce year 2021 has come, with its severe frosts. And the heat-loving Europe began to freeze slightly, no joke, the frosts dropped to -15 * C (in Spain to minus 1 * C). This is a real cataclysm! Last winter, the EU set a record for the extraction of gas from its underground storage facilities - 69,5 billion cubic meters, this has never happened before! Gazprom conscientiously, but without fanaticism, fulfilled its contractual obligations, supplying the agreed volumes of gas to its European counterparties, surpassing the same figure for the last year by as much as 30%. Moreover, going to meet his customers, blatant that they are freezing, he even exceeded the supply figures stipulated in the contracts, buying additional capacities for gas transit from his Ukrainian non-brothers (you have not forgotten that under the contract between him and Naftogaz, he must and can pump through the Ukrainian pipe no more and no less than 40 billion cubic meters / year, and for every extra cubic meter of gas, a multiplier with a coefficient of 1,2 is switched on over this figure; if you want to download, download, but pay 20% more, and Gazprom paid).

At the same time, no one lifted a finger to save the freezing heat-loving burghers. Neither Algerians, nor Norwegians, nor Qataris, not to mention the Americans. Physically, there is no gas, and the one that is, they drove the caravans of gas carriers to the east, to the freezing region of northeast Asia, where, against the background of unprecedented frosts for those regions (at minus 18 * C), all their wind and solar stations froze (due to the complete icing) and the gas price jumped to a record $ 1100 / tcm. Well, where is Europe with its $ 340 / thousand cubic meters? In the coffin, we saw her wearing white sneakers! That's literally what they said. Nothing personal, as they say, it's just business. No wonder the classic said that the capitalists would sell their own mother for 300% of the profit. So they sold it! As a result, Merkel said: “I saw this LNG of yours in the grave! SP-2 will be, no matter what you promise me! " And they do not promise anything, now that the price for gas in the EU has been set at around $ 348 per thousand cubic meters, they are still driving their gas carriers to Southeast Asia, where the price for gas is $ 30-35 more expensive.

The laws of physics cannot be fooled. If a certain amount of gas can be driven through the pipe section, then Gazprom cannot supply more than it will fit in (or, in the case of Ukraine, it does not want to, and what claims to it there may be, 40 billion cubic meters according to the contract must drive out - drove away, and more, excuse me, it's expensive, the prices are fixed for you, no one works at a loss, not even Gazprom!). Moreover, thanks to the cunning of its managers and the Kremlin's foresight with the delay in the construction of the SP-2, Gazprom's not so far-sighted European counterparties are now forced to pump gas into their empty UGS facilities at a price of $ 348 / thousand cubic meters. Or wait for the launch of the SP-2. Gazprom has no other possibilities to increase the supply on the pipe gas market and thereby bring down the price. Frau Merkel understood this a long time ago, so she stands as a mountain behind Nord Stream 2. Miller, on the other hand, calculates the unexpectedly collapsed profit, because Gazprom put the price in the 2021 budget at $ 171 / thousand cubic meters, and now it is exactly 2 times higher. Don't know why? And even though Gazprom supplies 40% of its supplies at fixed prices (according to the traditional Groningen model, pegged to the oil price), it still sells 60% of its gas on the spot market, and according to the requirements of the 3rd energy package, the EU calls on its members to move away from long-term contracts to the spot, which Gazprom, calculating its unexpectedly dumped profits, is only glad.

How to cheat the laws of physics or what are the advantages of Nord Stream 2

By the way, in defense of SP-2, I must say that the laws of physics can still be deceived, and more gas can be pumped through an equal section of the pipe. You just need to increase the pressure. The new gas pipeline provides a pressure of 120 atmospheres, in contrast to the central corridor, the main gas pipelines of which are designed for an operating pressure of 55-75 atmospheres. The central corridor includes not only the Ukrainian GTS, but also the Yamal-EU gas pipeline (and the SP-2 is directed rather against it than against the Ukrainian route). The Ukrainian route, in contrast to the SP-2, is also 1,5 times (2 thousand km) longer, and everyone who knows how to count their money will easily understand why the Russian Federation is so stuck in it. For a recipient of Russian gas in Europe, this also translates into a very tidy sum, given that the tariff for pumping gas through the Ukrainian GTS is one of the highest in Europe ($ 32 / thousand cubic meters). I don’t even want to talk about such a trifle as the carbon footprint (which is why all supporters of Greta Thunberg are so killed), for SP-2 it is 2 times lower than that of Qatari LNG, and 4 times lower than that of LNG from USA and Australia.

Why SP-2 is directed not against Ukraine, but against Poland, I will tell in the next text (sorry, it didn't fit here). This is "generally epic"! It seems that the Polish non-commissioned officer's widow whipped herself. Well, who is her doctor ?!
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  1. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
    Kofesan (Valery) 30 May 2021 08: 23
    Despite empty storage facilities, Europe is in no hurry to stock up on gas. Nor does Gazprom plan to increase exports now. Experts believe that large companies are counting on the launch of Nord Stream 2 by the fourth quarter of this year, when the cost of gas may decrease and supplies may increase.

    That is, the numbers are correct, but I would not be in a hurry with enthusiastic conclusions. Otherwise, it will turn out as experts predict. SP-2 will be launched, the gas price will fall. What were you fighting for then? And who benefits from it?
    I mean, it's too early to rejoice!
    Let SP-2 - then we will "see"!
    1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 30 May 2021 18: 00
      Valery, I will hope that it will take 55 years to reach the design capacity of 3 billion cubic meters of gas per year, in the 4th quarter of this we will be able to pump no more than 2 yards through SP-5. This is a drop in the ocean. It will save only Germany, the rest - a spot to help and $ 340 per thousand cubic meters
      1. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
        Kofesan (Valery) 30 May 2021 21: 44
        This is good news. The less Russian gas is pumped "national property" there, the higher the price, which means less for Miller for apartments of 1000 square meters. and ... more state employees here.

        Still, Ukraine could be detached from the transit pipe and it would be possible to say - "the day was a success."
  2. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 30 May 2021 10: 06
    Great article, thanks, I look forward to continuing. It would be nice to correct the typo, SWAP is a little different. Here is the "spot" fellow
    1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 30 May 2021 18: 01
      exactly, got screwed up, ATP!
  3. gorenina91 Online gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 30 May 2021 19: 06
    Sly Miller and sly Putin. Who won the delay in the launch of Nord Stream 2

    - Personally, I didn't understand anything ... - What is all this Gazprom's "paradise" ???
    - No ... - well, the fact that Miller got a lot ... is a no brainer (Gazprom will always "beat off" its dividends) ...
    - Well, this article is just right for the on-site sofa audience ... - Personally, I don't mind ... - read it - and you will find ...
    - So what is there ???

    The new gas pipeline provides a pressure of 120 atmospheres, in contrast to the central corridor, the main gas pipelines of which are designed for an operating pressure of 55-75 atmospheres. The central corridor includes not only the Ukrainian GTS, but also the Yamal-EU gas pipeline (and the SP-2 is directed rather against it than against the Ukrainian route).

    - What is this about ??? - About how ... how ... how to shoot yourself in the foot and still jump for joy ... - Against the Yamal-EU gas pipeline ... - Ha ... - is it against Poland, or what? ?? - Yes, the dog is with her., With this Poland ... - here ... here ... here it's just "the game is not worth the candle" ...
    - As for the SP-2 itself; then Russia has not yet learned how to ride high-speed trains across its vast territory (because there are none, except on a tiny site); and is already going with an intensified whistle, with "increased speed" to supply gas through the SP-2, which has not yet been completed ...
    And in vain is the author so optimistic about the "carbon footprint":

    I don't even want to talk about such a trifle as the carbon footprint (which is what all Greta Thunberg's supporters are killing about), for SP-2 it is 2 times lower than that of Qatari LNG, and 4 times lower than that of LNG from USA and Australia.

    - This "carbon tax" was invented exclusively for Russia and it will be directed specifically - against Russia ... - And all sorts of "Cathars" and "Australia" will simply go like a train ...
    - Generally ... - all these "new" and "old" gas pipelines to Europe ... - all this is yesterday ...
    - Well, today Putin has a very weighty "trump card" ... - this is the Chayandinskoye field ... - This is where the "new gas policy" can begin ...

    At the Chayandinskoye field, for the first time in Russia on an industrial scale, the technology of membrane extraction of helium from natural gas will be used directly in the field. It will allow the amount of helium required by the market to be sent to the gas pipeline.

    - China has been "waiting" there for a long time and "prepared" ...
    - And what will the "old" (morally obsolete before its launch of the SP-2) give Russia ... - except for new problems ... ??? - Gazprom will continue to trade its gas in Europe ... on the spot market ...
    - It seems that this SP-2 will never pay off ... - It's just a new monument to the "commercial greatness" of the great Gazprom ...
  4. Dima Dima_2 Offline Dima Dima_2
    Dima Dima_2 (Dima Dima) 30 May 2021 23: 13
    Okay, geniuses, strategists) Judging by the article, here Trump should be given an order, for merits) If he didn't decide to impose sanctions on an almost finished project out of a hangover, the whole strategy of the article goes to hell)
  5. Vyacheslav34 Offline Vyacheslav34
    Vyacheslav34 31 May 2021 11: 03
    It's just that the Germans are tired of pshek's toys and now they will play on the nerves of the Poles and set them the price of gas. God is not a little man sees a little
  6. SemVale Offline SemVale
    SemVale (Vale) 4 June 2021 09: 12
    A lot of words.
    The question is, how much has been thrown into the construction of the SP-2?
    How many decades do you need to download to recoup your investment?
    There is no talk about profit.
    Option-Money for the construction was taken from the treasury, as always, no one asked the people.
    But the profit will go into several separate pockets and will be in dollars and euros not in Russia.
  7. Alexander McLash (Alexander McLash) 22 June 2021 16: 15
    What nonsense are you doing about the laws of physics? The laws of physics are respected always - including at low and high pressure in the pipe.
  8. Bezukhov is not Pierre (Georgy Lezhnin) 15 July 2021 11: 23
    We are looking forward to the climate summit, which will take place in the fall. The carbon footprint will begin there. And since Mi is a northern country, we are heated all year round, so they want to impose a carbon tax on us, and besides, it’s very large! Since we mainly export raw materials, it will hit our mining industry very hard. But every cloud has a silver lining, more will stay at home. But what will the West do with gas? Deliveries under long-term contracts will put a heavy burden on Gazprom, but what price is Europe counting on? 30% less?
    It is not in vain, not in vain that Gazprom is building a bridge between Urengoy and the Yakutsk fields, preparing a gas flow to the Far Eastern GPP, and not in a rush to fill Uevropa's gas storage facilities It seems that Europe is approaching a premium gas market. God help them!