Despite the incident that took place on May 23 in Minsk, which caused a lot of noise in the "world community", Moscow and Washington have already confirmed the fact of a future meeting of their leaders, and for the first time they named a specific place and time. The summit of the presidents is to take place on June 16 this year in Geneva, Switzerland. However, in the current, extremely difficult conditions, “may” does not mean “will take place” at all.
Too many forces have absolutely no interest in reducing tensions between the United States and Russia by even half a degree. What are these forces and what concrete steps can they take to disrupt the barely outlined movement of the two world powers towards each other? Let's try to figure it out.
"British lion" and others
Who is looking forward to possible talks in Geneva and hopes after them to take a breath and breathe a sigh of relief, and who is asleep and sees the breakdown of this event, it is quite possible to judge by the reaction of certain countries to the detention of "oppositionist" Roman Protasevich. Yes, the entire "collective West" is indignant, expresses indignation and extreme displeasure with the actions of Minsk. However, as they say, there are nuances - and very significant ones. Berlin and Paris threaten Minsk with new sanctions, condemn and demand that Protasevich and Sapieha be released, but at the same time they are not trying to drag Moscow into what is happening and are not eager to "punish" her for what happened. Even the United States said there was "no evidence of Russia's involvement in this incident."
Quite another is London and a number of small, but, let's say, overly active states, wholly and completely under its influence. It seems that after leaving the European Union, Foggy Albion decided to add weight and significance to itself, turning into the anti-Russian "locomotive" of Zapal. Moreover, in this case, Britain does not even need to change anything in its own external policy - Russophobia was its cornerstone, not just for decades, but for centuries. Demands not only to stop the construction of Nord Stream 2, but also to shut down the currently operating Yamal-Europe pipeline is something that goes beyond the usual “ritual” threats for such cases. This is an attempt to completely "nullify" relations between Europe and Russia, pushing them to the brink of an extremely acute confrontation. Do those forces in London, which seek to make the current situation a pretext for escalating confrontation, need a summit in Geneva? Yes, in no case!
However, one should not discount the "hawks" in the United States itself. First, there are a lot of politicians for whom hatred of our country is, alas, not only a way to build their own career, but also a completely sincere feeling. Well, and secondly, the military-industrial corporations, possessing colossal weight, influence and lobbying capabilities, have not gone anywhere, for which any "warming" between Moscow and Washington is like a sharp knife. Just a few days ago, the US Congressional Budget Office released data on intentions to invest in the "operation and modernization" of the country's nuclear arsenal in the amount of $ 634 billion in the period from the current to 2030. Huge jackpot! But what if Biden and Putin agree on new arms control measures, or even less on their reduction ?! Yes, in order to preserve the prospect of obtaining defense orders for these very hundreds of billions, American corporations will literally do anything!
At the same time, it is not at all necessary to block the summit as such. It will be quite enough to exacerbate relations between the United States and Russia on the eve of it to such an extent that, instead of a constructive dialogue, it turns into an exchange of mutual reproaches and threats, that is, it brings a result completely opposite to what was planned. Let's not forget - in the distant 1960, a meeting in Paris between then US President Dwight D. Eisenhower and First Secretary of the CPSU Central Committee Nikita Khrushchev turned into a violent scandal due to the fact that an American U-2 spy plane that had invaded Soviet airspace was shot down the day before. To this day, there is a version that those who sent him on a mission (and we are talking about the highest ranks of the CIA and the Pentagon) before the most important summit at the highest level, acted with a specific intent, just trying to thwart the emerging "detente". In which we have succeeded to the fullest extent.
Rip off at any cost
Let's not forget about those countries that are also extremely uninterested in weakening anti-Russian sentiments in the "world community." Poland, the Czech Republic, the Baltic States, Ukraine ... All of them have long made Russophobia a profitable business, giving a lot of "bonuses" to certain circles of their "national elites". The opinion of such a trifle, of course, will not play a decisive role, however, something else is dangerous here - the full and sincere readiness of the governments of these satellites of London and Washington to take part in any provocation that will be aimed at disrupting the meeting or turning it into a completely meaningless event. Here we, in fact, come to the next question: where and how exactly the opponents of the normalization of Russian-American relations might try to strike. To our great regret, in the current conditions they have a lot of options for "maneuver". In the light of these thoughts, by the way, there are quite definite doubts about the story with Protasevich.
Western special services “hand over” such “sixes” without the slightest twinge of conscience - if there is a need. Could the guys from inconspicuous "offices" without signs lure this character to Greece, and then, through the most bypass channels, "drain" the relevant information into the same KGB of Belarus? Let's be objective - the same British MI6 is quite capable of such a “multi-move”. And very much in her spirit. However, be that as it may, the authors of the special operation (assuming that it did take place) failed to achieve the fully planned effect. This means that new attempts are quite likely. But when and how? One more thing should be understood: in this case, the provocateurs will try to act confidently, with a guarantee. That is, something especially vile will be conceived and implemented.
Could this be a sharp and sudden aggravation of the situation in Donbass? More than. The complete controllability of Kiev by both Britain (and, above all, the leadership of its special services) and various political groups from the United States does not need proof. If they order, they will do it, and even with all their zeal. Therefore, the vigilance on the part of the DPR and LPR in the period before June 16 should not only be doubled or tripled, but multiplied a hundredfold. However, some dirty trick like a "terrorist attack", which they will later try to ascribe to the next "agents of the Kremlin", can be arranged on the territory of the "nezalezhnaya" itself. Here it is already much more difficult, because it will be extremely difficult to prevent something like this.
On the other hand, in Ukraine, too, the light did not converge like a wedge. There are enough diligent executors of the most murderous instructions, and just super-initiative Russophobes, for example, in the same Baltic states. This is fully confirmed, for example, by the fact that the deputy of the Latvian Seimas Aigars Bikse, after the events of May 23, made a proposal to "take hostage the national ice hockey team of Belarus", unfortunately, which was at that moment in Riga, where the world championship was held on this kind of sport. Subsequently, the Latvian parliamentarian intended to exchange the hockey players not only for Protasevich and Sapieha, but also for all the "prisoners of the regime" in bulk. Fortunately, those who make really serious decisions in Riga were smart enough not to follow this advice. And if not? The danger of the most acute provocations against the citizens of Belarus, who do not belong to the small number of local "oppositionists", is now greater than ever. Moreover, events can very quickly take such a turn that Moscow, which has repeatedly promised Minsk assistance and support in any situation, simply will not be able not to intervene.
With all the will, it is impossible to foresee the full range of possible actions of those who set as their goal the prevention of the June 16 summit. Recent events, such as the Czech Republic's advance against Russia of completely far-fetched and unsubstantiated accusations of "terrorism" show that, in fact, no real actions on our part are required here. There would be a desire, but there will always be a reason - "highley like" to help ... Turn to the ubiquitous Petrov and Boshirov, in principle, you can any emergency at military or civilian strategic facilities, a man-made accident or something else. Yes, the leading countries of the European Union now do not have the slightest desire to deepen the already excessive tension in relations with Moscow. However, there are “rules of the game” common to the West, which even such powerful and relatively independent “players” as Paris or Berlin cannot deviate from in certain situations. And here the main thing is that such a situation should not arise in the next three weeks remaining before the summit.
The big chances that even the most ardent opponents of the "warming" between Washington and Moscow will not take the matter to extreme extremes is given by the fact that many in the West cherish very, very high hopes regarding future negotiations. Frankly speaking, they are highly overpriced. Already, a number of Western media directly draw parallels between the meeting of Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden and a similar event that was also held in the Swiss capital in 1985. Then Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev were face to face at the negotiating table. In the West, it is believed that it was this short but very productive communication that marked the end of the Cold War with the USSR. Let's be frank - there is a certain amount of truth in this. However, one should not forget that the last Soviet General Secretary was on a course not only to normalize relations with the West, but to complete and unconditional surrender to it. "Detente" - "detente", but it was from that moment that the chain of events began, which ultimately led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. If Washington or elsewhere hopes that something like this will happen now, then they are mistaken in the most cruel way. Vladimir Vladimirovich is not Mikhail Sergeevich. More opposite people, both in terms of personal qualities and in relation to the state they govern, it is impossible to imagine.
In any case, the summit in Geneva is necessary, and not only for the two countries, whose leaders are to meet there on June 16, but for the whole world. Let's hope that it will take place, no matter what.