Belarusian front: why Russia won, and Ukraine and the Baltic states lost


Only a few days have passed since the scandalous detention of the Belarusian opposition leader Roman Protasevich, but already now it is possible to draw certain intermediate conclusions about who won from this controversial story and who lost. If the situation continues to develop in the current vein, then Belarus itself, neighboring Ukraine and the Baltic countries can be attributed to the “losers” already now, and Russia turned out to be the unexpected winner. What gives us reason to believe so?


Why Belarus belongs to the losers is not difficult to guess. After the high-profile presidential elections in 2020 and the harsh suppression of dissent in this country by the security forces, the fourth package of restrictive measures is shining for official Minsk. “President of the Light” Tikhanovskaya actively asked Western leaders to do this, and the EU authorities confirmed their readiness. However, no one was ready to finally beat all the plates with Lukashenka in the West. The maximum that was discussed was personal sanctions against several dozen individuals in Belarus. In a sense, Alexander Grigorievich himself set himself up, creating new problems for himself out of the blue.

What other problems! The West took advantage of a convenient pretext to demolish the "last dictator of Europe" regime, which it did not recognize, and introduced new tough sanctions against Belarus. Our only official ally found itself in an air blockade: Belavia is now prohibited from flying to EU airports, and European companies are prohibited from using the republic's airspace. Such well-known air carriers as Lufthansa, KLM, Air France, SAS, Singapore Airlines, Wizz Air, LOT and Air Baltic have already heeded these recommendations. It is highly likely that this list will only grow. In fact, Belarus was forcibly “cut out” from the general airspace of the Old World. This will create a lot of problems not only for Minsk, but for neighbors from the Baltic states and Ukraine.

Now, in order to fly, for example, from Vilnius to Kiev, the liners will have to make a very decent detour through the territory of Poland. This will lengthen the route and will undoubtedly significantly increase the cost of air travel. The difficulties are not limited to the increase in the costs of air carriers. Thus, the citizens of Nezalezhnaya will lose Minsk as a neutral buffer through which they flew in transit to Russia. Now, apparently, they will have to do it through Poland or the Baltic states, which means additional overhead costs for them.

Let's face it, this can only become the beginning of truly grandiose problems for Belarus and the countries surrounding it. According to the respected information and analytical agency Bloomberg, the West is considering the scenario of a complete trade and transport blockade of the republic:

Existing European sanctions include an arms embargo on Belarus, a visa ban and an asset freeze for individuals and companies involved in this story. This is completely insufficient. The next step is to expand this list of individuals to include important state-owned companies: for example, Belaruskali, one of the world's largest producers of potash fertilizers, which generates a significant portion of the national income.

In practice, the blockade may look like this. First, Lithuania and Latvia may refuse to provide their transit services for Belarusian export products. Secondly, following the urgent recommendations of the European authorities, its western counterpart companies may refuse to cooperate with Minsk. In the first case, Russia can come to the rescue of Minsk. Moscow has long been beckoning "Old Man" to switch to the use of our ports on the Baltic Sea, and recently there has been a significant shift. President Lukashenko allowed himself to be persuaded to transfer half of the total export of oil products to Ust-Luga. The agreement was signed for the next three years with the possibility of extension. At the same time, Minsk in any case will be obliged to pay for the services of Russian terminals, even if it does not use them. But where will he go now? If the Lithuanian authorities continue to follow the current policy aggravation, Klaipeda may lose the rest of the transit flows. However, there is one problem. A special terminal for transshipment of Belarusian mineral fertilizers in Ust-Luga has not yet been built, while negotiations are underway on this issue. Apparently, "Old Man" should have started blowing on the water much earlier, when Moscow offered it and it was time to calmly prepare all the necessary infrastructure.

But what if, for political reasons, Western partners refuse to cooperate with the “terrorist regime” of Alexander Lukashenko? Perhaps this image problem could have been solved by changing the owner of Belaruskali, and then Russia, whose big business has long dreamed of absorbing a Belarusian competitor, can again enter the scene. And in this country there are many industrial enterprises and other interesting assets, on which domestic oligarchs have frankly laid their eyes.

In general, so far it is the Kremlin that looks like the main beneficiary of Minsk's final break with the West. The endless “multi-vector” games are finally over, and President Lukashenka will no longer be able to blackmail Russia with the “European course”. He himself has nailed the door to the EU for Belarus with his own hands. The country headed by him is now isolated from the western direction, and there is no other way but integration within the Union State. Yes, Russia will have to pay for everything, but now "Old Man" will have to really give in return what the Kremlin will urgently ask him for.
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  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 26 May 2021 16: 39
    +7
    Maybe, maybe ... Or maybe not!

    and include important state-owned companies: for example, Belaruskali, one of the world's largest producers of potash fertilizers, which generates a significant portion of the national income.

    And China and India don't care about these European sanctions. Or will the EU heat the ships with potash fertilizer?
  2. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 26 May 2021 17: 34
    +2
    Yes, NATO's Euro-Shobla will do anything!
    They are not accustomed to starving people!
    They proved to be a blockade near Leningrad ...
    1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) 26 May 2021 20: 13
      0
      blockades and Gogol's Bulba loved to organize sahaidachny with his assholes.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  3. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 26 May 2021 19: 20
    +4
    Not supporting Belarus, Russia and the union state of the Russian Federation-Belarus will lose the most.
    1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) 26 May 2021 20: 15
      +2
      Russia has two allies - the army and the navy. the rest just want to eat!
      1. Woland Offline Woland
        Woland (Woland) 27 May 2021 18: 07
        -1
        Russia has two allies - Petrov and Boshirov
  4. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 26 May 2021 19: 45
    -5
    But where will he go now?

    When a person respects himself, then you don't need to talk to him like that. You don't allow to talk to you like that, do you? Why should Lukashenka swallow such an appeal? China once said: "One country, two systems." I did not search in detail. But Russia did not give even hints to build the Union in relation to Belarus. The flight time of a cruise missile to Moscow from the territory of Belarus is no more than two minutes. And Lukashenka knows this, and Russia will not allow itself to be bullied. I hope Putin understands this ?!
    1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) 26 May 2021 20: 08
      +3
      if Lukashenko does not understand then Russia will simply plow the whole bulbashia together with the bulbash and nothing will take off from there. it is necessary to think with the head and not with a saline organ. the hospitable owners of NATO missiles will be the first to get on their stupid head. Switzerland does not go anywhere and counts profits.
      1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
        steelmaker 26 May 2021 20: 15
        -5
        I knew that mediocrity would understand this. And the fact that NATO has cruise missiles will not reach them. They think that it is Lukashenka who is going to bomb Moscow. Oh and mediocrity !!
        1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
          Just a cat (Bayun) 26 May 2021 20: 17
          0
          Zakharchenko also liked to chat and get lips from the Kremlin ... now more accommodating in his place. take a bite!
        2. Heroes Heroes Offline Heroes Heroes
          Heroes Heroes (Sergei) 27 May 2021 11: 20
          +1
          What are you talking about.
        3. Russobel Offline Russobel
          Russobel (Andrei) 29 May 2021 08: 54
          +1
          Do not pay attention to any comrade ...!
  5. Digital error Offline Digital error
    Digital error (Eugene) 26 May 2021 20: 21
    0
    He himself has nailed down the door to the EU for Belarus with his own hands.

    That is, that is, the narrowing of the window of opportunity with our own hands to uncontested integration with Russia. I will assume that the first acquisition for Belarusian citizens in this case will be Russian taxes. And salaries ... will eventually catch up. Although, there is another option - to surrender power under the personal security guarantees of the West, more essential than Yanukovych. Otherwise, there are no alternatives at all - velcome to Russia ...
    1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) 26 May 2021 20: 34
      +2
      pensions to them only according to the length of service for the benefit of Russia ...
      1. Digital error Offline Digital error
        Digital error (Eugene) 26 May 2021 20: 42
        0
        Who is against that? In what year was the union state declared in our country? From there, not sickly experience and count it off :)
        1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
          Just a cat (Bayun) 26 May 2021 20: 56
          +2
          in whose pension fund taxes? to Russian? There are various alliances with Brazil and China. can we pay a pension to the Chinese too? raise your retirement age by twenty years so that all allies have enough ... we'll see how you sing ... or start croaking.
  6. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 27 May 2021 08: 22
    0
    Quote: Bulanov
    And China and India don't care about these European sanctions. Or will the EU heat the ships with potash fertilizer?

    Firstly, it is no longer the EU, but the United States that has joined the sanctions topic. Secondly, why is it necessary to heat? There are so-called secondary sanctions. You can make it so that buyers choose not to get involved with Belarusian fertilizers, that is, the choice.
  7. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 27 May 2021 09: 18
    -1
    Quote: steel maker
    When a person respects himself, then you don't need to talk to him like that. You don't allow to talk to you like that, do you? Why should Lukashenka swallow such an appeal?

    This is not a question of personal ambitions, but of the position in which, through the fault of Lukashenka, his country found itself. He himself and his Kolya will not starve, but what will be the reaction of the Belarusians, who, and so many protested against him in 2020?
    Old Man may not stand it, but then let him rake it out himself. Or charity again?
    1. chemyurij Offline chemyurij
      chemyurij (chemyurij) 27 May 2021 09: 53
      +3
      Quote: Marzhetsky
      This is not a question of personal ambitions, but of the situation in which, due to Lukashenka's fault,

      Is this so? Is it his fault? How did the whistle dance around Protasevich begin? From the fact that a signal was received about a bomb planted in the plane. Are you sure that this is the work of Lukashenka, and not Western, for example, the British, US, Polish special services? Those who understand the logic of actions in such cases and, accordingly, the calculation for this was originally. They, that is, the West, in this case, go almost for broke, because they understand that while Lukashenka is in power, Belarus was, is and will be a Brest fortress for Russia, because besides Lukashenka, there are also people in this country. Lukashenki come and go sooner or later, but the people remain. The West will use this situation to the fullest. This is my opinion.
    2. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
      steelmaker 27 May 2021 17: 55
      0
      he and his Kolya will not starve,

      And what, in Belarus, someone is starving? And about personal ambitions. you remind Putin.

      but then let him rake it out himself

      So he does it all himself: he digs potatoes, and to factories, and to collective farms, and with a machine gun. Has time everywhere. And Putin did not go to Khabarovsk even on January 23 ........, and never dug potatoes. Or is our Putin doing something himself? And at the expense of charity, it is not for you and Putin to speak! Vietnam, Mongolia, Syria ..... continue? Do not upset me and do not stoop to the level of the Belarusian opposition.
  8. Heroes Heroes Offline Heroes Heroes
    Heroes Heroes (Sergei) 27 May 2021 11: 17
    0
    Because they CANNOT win. There are not enough brains.
  9. Igor Berg Offline Igor Berg
    Igor Berg (Igor Berg) 27 May 2021 12: 27
    0
    What date will we celebrate next Victory Day?
    1. Cyril Offline Cyril
      Cyril (Kirill) 28 May 2021 12: 58
      -1
      Backdating:)
  10. RFR Offline RFR
    RFR (RFR) 27 May 2021 19: 36
    0
    The midwife grandmother wrote this opus ... Maybe, she can't ... The old one cackled ... Everything with the Bulbash, and we will be fine, but we will put the Gayropean rooster in the stall anyway ...
  11. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
    Ulysses (Alexey) 27 May 2021 21: 57
    +1
    In general, so far it is the Kremlin that looks like the main beneficiary of Minsk's final break with the West. The endless “multi-vector” games are finally over, and President Lukashenka will no longer be able to blackmail Russia with the “European course”. He himself has nailed the door to the EU for Belarus with his own hands.

    Judging by the content of the article, the author is deeply saddened that the “multi-vector” Lukashenka has finally decided on his next course.
    After the events of last year (and long deliberation), the hut turned to Moscow in front, to Brussels in the back.
    Which cannot please the opponents of the union of the two states. repeat

    PS Separately, "grygorychu", we all remember. sad

    1. Cyril Offline Cyril
      Cyril (Kirill) 28 May 2021 12: 59
      -1
      Luke chhat on your comments.
  12. Alexander Pankov (Alexander Pankow) 29 May 2021 02: 39
    0
    Everything returns to its own circles. Belarusians are not Catholics (at least the majority), they are not in the West with their hands, Russia has a common history with them (mostly), both Russia and Belarus are renegades of "European civilization". Well, then, that's the way to act. As independent states.