How the "great country" Poland again outplayed our "Gazprom"


The recent statement of the head of Gazprom Export, Elena Burmistrova, caused a mixed reaction in the Russian Internet community. She said that negotiations on the extension of the gas supply agreement with Warsaw after 2022, when the current agreement expires, are still ongoing, and called Poland a "great country" and a "reliable counterparty." Taking into account the historically difficult relations between our countries, some commentators considered this "subtle trolling", while others - "toadying." How should one evaluate the statement of the head of the export division of the Russian state corporation?


The relations between Russia and Poland in the gas issue have two dimensions - gas supplies for domestic consumption via the Yamal-Europe pipeline and transit to neighboring countries. In 2020, Warsaw refused to renew the transit agreement, and now Gazprom is forced to book short-term transit facilities from the Polish operator Gaz-System in accordance with European energy rules. In addition, a 1996 treaty is still in force between Russia and Poland. In accordance with it, Warsaw receives 9,8 billion cubic meters of gas annually, while at the minimum PGNiG must buy 8,7 billion cubic meters. This agreement expires in 2022, and Poland, which has constantly criticized its terms, insists that it will not renew the agreement with Gazprom either. This agreement is the cornerstone of Russian-Polish gas relations, around which both sides play their games. Let's see what specific goals Warsaw and Moscow are trying to achieve, and then we'll try to draw a conclusion about who beat whom.

It is extremely important for Gazprom that Poland renegotiates a supply agreement with it after 2022. It should be borne in mind on what background this behind-the-scenes struggle is taking place. The EU leadership announced a 30-year plan to gradually phase out the use of fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal) in its energy sector with a transition to "green" sources. This means that the consumption of "blue fuel" will gradually but continuously decrease, and the domestic monopolist will lose its sales market. It is important for him to try to keep each of his solvent European clients, including Poland with its 8,7-9,8 billion cubic meters per year. Hence, by the way, and Mrs. Burmistrova's compliment about the "reliability of the counterparty."

At the same time, Warsaw's ambitions are much broader than those of Gazprom. The Polish leadership itself wants to turn its country into a regional gas hub, "moving" neighboring Germany and taking away the share of the Eastern European market from the Russian monopolist. A lot has already been done for this: an LNG terminal has been built in Swinoujscie with a capacity of 5 billion cubic meters per year, and now its capacity will be expanded to 7,5 billion. Another floating LNG terminal with a capacity of 4,5 billion cubic meters per year will be launched in Gdansk. The construction of the Baltic Pipeline has begun, through which Poland will receive up to 10 billion cubic meters of Norwegian gas a year. Thus, in a few years Warsaw will indeed be able to completely close the issue of dependence on gas supplies from Russia.

But what about turning Poland into a gas hub competing with Germany? The Poles will close their needs at the expense of American LNG and the Scandinavian pipeline, but there will not be so much surplus. What remains will be enough for relatively small supplies to the Baltics via Lithuania and to neighboring Ukraine. And then you have to invest decently in infrastructure. Where to get additional volumes if Poland flatly refuses to work with Gazprom after 2022?

Yes, all of the same "Gazprom", only on more favorable terms for Warsaw, and for this, the top management of the Russian state corporation must be properly "processed". First, the Poles defiantly ensured their energy independence. Then they proved the seriousness of their intentions by refusing to extend the transit agreement and at the same time suing Gazprom a tidy sum through the Stockholm arbitration. Now they have set a deadline for when they stop purchasing, for 2022. The clock is ticking and the Baltic Pipe and LNG terminals are being built. Judging by the statement of Elena Burmistrova, Alexey Miller's team secretly continues to negotiate the extension of the agreement with Warsaw. And then the Poles made a “knight's move”.

Recall that we recently told (link https://topcor.ru/19787-smozhet-li-polsha-otnjat-u-rossii-gazoprovod-jamal-evropa.html) how the operator Gaz-System announced its “chic” national energy development plan. Within its framework, it is planned to take the Polish part of the Yamal-Europe trunk pipeline from Gazprom and adapt it to suit our internal needs. To do this, the pipeline only needs to be connected to both LNG terminals on the coast and to the Baltic Pipe, while building additional entry-exit points and compressor stations. Brilliant.

However, for this, it is necessary to somehow take away 48% of the shares of EuRoPol GAZ, owned by Gazprom. And this is where the fun begins. Poland can redeem this share from Russia, can offset it by paying off the debt in shares in the framework of some regular lawsuit, or it can simply nationalize it. In all cases, the Russian monopolist will be at a loss. Even if his share is bought out peacefully, the Poles will obviously try to seriously bring down the market price. All other options are even worse: lawsuits, fines under various pretexts, or even nationalization.

Let's think, why did the Polish Gaz-System publish such plans? Perhaps to put psychological pressure on the management of Gazprom. And, apparently, Warsaw succeeded. That is why the head of Gazprom Export Burmistrova began to crumble in pleasantries, clearly calling on the "reliable counterparty" not to slip into harsh scenarios. So what can Poland get from the Russian monopoly? Probably, the extension of the contract for the supply of Russian gas after 2022, but with a very significant discount for the “great country”. Then Poland will receive additional volumes of gas that it can resell to its neighbors, increasing its status as a regional hub.
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  1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 22 May 2021 13: 13
    +5
    That is why the head of Gazprom Export, Burmistrova, began to crumble in pleasantries, clearly calling on the "reliable counterparty" not to slip into harsh scenarios.

    I say: "Mediocrities do not solve problems, they create them!"
  2. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 22 May 2021 13: 50
    +9
    It's unclear.
    Nobody buys transit capacities. Except for Gazprom. Last year, when transit stopped for 4 days, gas prices in Europe soared by 30%.
    Second point. It was announced that Norwegian gas will be supplied up to 10 billion cubic meters per year. This is stated. But Norway is struggling to keep gas production right now. For some reason, US LNG does not go to Europe.
    Third point. The transition to green energy means the collapse of Polish industry. Poland is already bargaining with the EU over a "carbon tax" and does not want to sign it. The main electricity generation in Poland comes from coal-fired power plants, which need to be closed or converted to gas.
    In general, "chickens are counted in the fall." The best strategy (not a tactic, but a strategy) of Gazprom is to reduce the supply of hydrocarbons to Europe. Especially in connection with the "carbon tax". It is necessary to limit ourselves to the minimum contractual deliveries and not to renew the expiring contracts.
    Surplus gas should be redirected to Asia. Emerging markets.
    1. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
      Kofesan (Valery) 22 May 2021 22: 14
      +1
      But what if we consider low prices from Gazprom for the EU as a "bribe", for a condescending attitude towards the personal wealth of the top management of the "property" and not only ... on the territory of NATO countries?
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 22 May 2021 23: 04
        +5
        I don’t think so ... There is no "indulgence" and will not be. Those who count on this are very naive.
        1. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
          Kofesan (Valery) 22 May 2021 23: 41
          +1
          Automatically and without hesitation, I remembered the 90s. MMM. When, against the background of the quiet horror of disappearing savings (especially among the "wise" experience with "coffin"), the number of "naive" has increased manifold. Not twice, not three times ... Many times! Of course, you and I did not belong to them. But the fact is undeniable. Belief in one's own truth, unlike a doubter, leads to manipulation by those who believe stronger or more firmly ... But among the "naive" then there were oh so many "not naive and very high-ranking persons." Person ...! With a capital letter. Naive, they thought with their power, they would be able to escape first and without loss ...

          There is no "condescending attitude" and will not be.

          In the end - definitely! If not from them, then everything will be taken away from their children. For this, they lure. But they will take it away so subtly that it would not frighten off the next ...

          But he is not naive who has nothing to lose. Who is cold-blooded. And those who are in anguish with "back-breaking labor" can no longer part, this is the collapse of everything for them ... who are now afraid of losing everything for which they went then ... For something that now simply cannot be repeated. .. Burnt out ... Grabbing like the last straw ...

          And those who do not have these "chains" can and look much more soberly. This is perhaps a fact. Once again - As we are with you. Yes, I think we're right. But I am sure that the "elite" began to commit naive acts and more than once! And Alas! They have something to lose, what hurts the most - it has become an obsession for them.
          1. Bakht Offline Bakht
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 23 May 2021 10: 26
            +8
            The elite do not commit naive acts. We make a choice based on the data that we have. Momentary fluctuations are impossible to predict. But the general trend is clear. Therefore, information was valued more than gold.
            Our "elite" (I mean throughout the post-Soviet space) is not such by virtue of the definition of the word elite. These are not the best people in the country. These are those who by any means, rejecting all moral principles, made loot. And since they have made their own "back-breaking labor", they reasonably assume that in this country they can take everything away from them. Hence their desire to take capital offshore, to other countries. But they do not understand that in the West they will never become their own. This is ruled out due to the 300 year old strategy of the West. The wealth of the West was bought by robbing the colonies. Russia is no exception. The compradors were allowed to plunder their populations and plunder their country and export capital to the West. The next logical step is to confiscate all the loot with the face of a righteous man. But for some reason, everything confiscated does not return to the country from which it was exported.
            That is why I say that there will be no "condescending attitude".
            I can give examples from Russia. This is the decision of the London court against the billionaire Farhad Akhmedov. On Azerbaijan, this is the decision of the London court on Zamira Hajiyeva. There are probably other solutions.

            PS New Russian at a meeting with Bill Gates.
            Gates - I started out in a garage with one soldering iron
            New Russian - That's how I started out too. But I also had an iron!
            1. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
              Kofesan (Valery) 23 May 2021 22: 04
              +3
              I agree with every word. It is especially pleasant to agree that our "elite" is not such. Neither in mind nor in heart. It remains only to say aloud the names of the high-ranking "princes" who crawled out of the "mud". And yes, I agree, they are not "elite" at all, those who should be quoted.
              And still ...

              There was only one objection left. Based on your own logic: "Elite" will still be afraid that its "acquired" will be taken away "here" and being afraid of this,

              she will be afraid of what will be taken away and "there" (Perfectly understanding this. We are not alone in seeing the obvious). But with manic stubbornness, she will hope that, having surrendered the country's interests to please the West (like Kozyrev, for example ...), she will buy indulgence for at least a part of her loot ... Yes, and spending their super "acquired" here is cramped and uncomfortable for them. Everyone knows "what" they are.

              Like Khodorkovsky and Chichvarkin, for example ... Like Gorbachev. How ...

              And yet ... After all, based on what we both said, I asked the question -

              "What if we consider low prices from Gazprom for the EU as a" bribe "?
              1. Bakht Offline Bakht
                Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 23 May 2021 22: 25
                +3
                I do not agree with the "bribe". So far, apart from one statement, it is not clear that Gazprom is going to sell gas to Poland. And there is no evidence that Poland is going to buy Russian gas.
                Poland wants to gain control over the gas pipeline and use it for its own needs. Hence all this talk. They don't let me into the Kremlin, I don't go to Gazprom. Wait and see. But there will be no "low prices". Poland, as well as Ukraine and Bulgaria, achieved through the Stockholm arbitration the gas prices linked to the Dutch hub. So they will pay at this price. At the moment, more than $ 300 per 1 cubic meters. Germany will receive at the same price pegged to the oil basket. That is, about $ 000 or a little more for the same thousand cubic meters.
                And who benefits from the decisions of the Stockholm Arbitration?

                As for the "elite". It was not in vain that I cited Farhad Akhmedov as an example. He is now being bullied in a London court. There were reports that the British special forces were going to storm his yacht (the former yacht of Abramovich. It is now in Dubai). But the Dubai court did not recognize the London decision. It seems that $ 5 million has already been confiscated from him. And what does he do? It transfers its assets from Switzerland to Luxembourg. But not to Russia. And the yacht is still not in the Russian port.
                They simply have no way out. Russia for them is just a place where money is made. And the West is the place where they want to live. Something they will probably leave. But they will fly out of Forbes.
                1. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
                  Kofesan (Valery) 24 May 2021 05: 59
                  +1
                  So that's what we're talking about. And it was not by chance that I gave the example of MMM. Which illustrates that Akhmedov (and his children), Sechin (and his children), Millers (and (or) his children) ... when he touches their "acquired" - ordinary, greedy, not distant burghers ... realizing that they will be undressed in the West, more than the West they are afraid of changes in the top Russian leadership. Which is also oh so poor. And in fact it does not differ from them in anything. But money "theirs", it is obvious, will try to save, yet only there. For them, there is no doubt and hesitation where and with whom to connect their future ... But it is clear that not in Russia and not with Russia. Because if Putin's "vertical" disappears, they may disappear in Russia, along with money and families. Both literally and figuratively. For them, there is no doubt that it is definitely better to disappear in advance and there. They do not get away from the consciousness of their own "sins" here, and it is bad and not sweet "here" to spend and materialize the loot. Not to mention investing in the long term in the interests of the country, not theirs. This is something like "stolen syndrome" - "It is not enough to steal, it is still necessary to "save" and so that they would have nothing for it "

                  Just like Gazprom, they operate in the paradigm of the "Stockholm Arbitration", the London "high" court, or the "Energy packages" adopted by the EU, or according to the trading rules of the Western exchanges, .... i.e. according to the rules of the West. Who, more than once showed that he uses laws, including international ones, only for his own benefit, and each time in a new interpretation.

                  I, too, even noddingly, am not familiar with the oligarchy. But I am sure that their "pliability" in relation to Donbass, Ukraine as a whole, decisions of the Stockholm arbitration tribunals, decisions of courts in Poland and England to seize completely far-fetched amounts from them (and in fact from Russia) is based on the desire to preserve the current status quo at any cost. ... THEY WANT TO LIVE THERE. AND AFRAID TO STAY HERE. They will be law-abiding for the West, and they will go ... and they will go !!! for any shenanigans here, costs there (like Abramovich and Chelsea) ... and this, and before God! and in front of people! ... and is called BRIBE! A bribe to the West, or "TRADE in Russia's state interests" in favor of "partners" for its current or future legalization there ..

                  By the way, where do Putin's children live? ... Or ... where do you think Peskov's children will live?
                  1. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
                    Kofesan (Valery) 24 May 2021 06: 36
                    +1
                    So we are all watching together, and the rulers of Russia even seem to be "fighting" so that Fortuna and Chersky lay new meters of the gas pipeline .. We calculate the time until the end of construction. We are considering the benefits of certain conditions for the supply of gas to Poland.

                    And somehow no one asks the question: Do we need it?

                    Well, maybe it is necessary, so that not so much, but still make money on it (for whom only, in the first place?) ... (and at first to beat off investments in this construction for many, many years).

                    To whom it really SHOULD-SHOULD be Europe itself, including Poland. But they will take their toll, with our "fighters". Through the London or now even the Warsaw courts ... Indirectly, taxes on "non-democratic gas", for example ... "one-time", but regular payments for "something" through the "courts" ... But you never know .. ...

                    So it turns out that behind the small we do not see the main thing. Namely: namely, the actual collusion of the Russian "elite" with the West, with the aim of further robbery .... Robbery in exchange for legalization!

                    How to call it?

                    Bribe?....
                    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
                      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 24 May 2021 13: 13
                      +2
                      Trade is indispensable in the modern world. At one time, they built gas pipelines and there was a "gas-pipes" deal. With this approach, even going to the store for bread can be considered a bribe. They gave a bribe to the seller and he gave you bread.
                      Also M. Aldanov wrote "the baker gives us bread, not because he is kind. But because it is profitable for him."
                      You need to sell gas. It would be better, of course, iPhones (where the profit is higher), but what is there is sold. But the "robbery" of the country is entirely on the conscience of the authorities. Do not forget that the current elite was formed in the 90s. When there was no Putin, no "vertical".
                      With a strong and tough "vertical of power" oligarchs cannot live. They understand this very well. They can live freely with "horizontal" connections.
                      Therefore, the question remained. Does the country need a strong "vertical" of power? My opinion is vital. And then the "elite" will sit under strict control and supervision.
                      So today in Russia (and in our country) the government is not strong enough. And most importantly, it must be nationally oriented. The leader's nationality does not matter. The last truly Russian ruler was Stalin.

                      An example of South Korea. The father of the Korean economic miracle was Park Chung Hee. Another dictator. If you find the history of the creation of "chaebols", then this is also interesting. Plus five-year plans. And no human rights

                      The best way to catch four rabbits is to catch ten and then release six. In the first place is the protection of the life and freedom of thirty million people from the threatening aggression from the North, therefore there can be no question of ensuring the rights and freedoms of individual citizens.

                      True, he was still killed.
                  2. Bakht Offline Bakht
                    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 24 May 2021 09: 10
                    +1
                    Hooked on one phrase

                    Because if Putin's "vertical" disappears, they may disappear in Russia, along with money and families.

                    Do you think that Putin's "vertical" should disappear? Is the vertical of power a positive or negative element in the construction of the state?
                    1. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
                      Kofesan (Valery) 24 May 2021 15: 44
                      0
                      Putin is not Stalin, not Park Chung Hee, and not even Nikolai I. And never Peter. He built a unique and self-destructive structure, but not as a structure of power, but as a machine devouring itself as a country. As a historical education - Russia. And I even, it seems, remember how and from what he gave birth to it, most likely not willingly. With little things ... I'm sure this system is not even a step back. And not two. And not feudalism, which it most resembles. These are the times of turmoil, seven-boyars and seven-bankers of the 90s at the same time. Amazing education. Most of all it resembles a snake devouring itself, swallowing its tail.

                      Yes, at the beginning of his "presidency" he was forced to fight for power, including ensuring the "financial stability" of his own position (similar to the NWF, when it is collected but not consumed ... just in case) collecting resources into a fist. Yes, he could not move with abrupt steps, fearing conspiracies, a sharp turn of the West from the process of robbing to the process of destruction. Yes, and he and his druzhbanov snout in fluff after the 90s to this day. Yes, he quietly cut everything he could, like ballast from which the ship could tip over. And this is understandable and even, to some extent, forgivable from the point of view "it has been like this at all times and epochs" ... But what he did ...

                      He began with what Yeltsin said in words, wishing to remain the king of the mountain in, albeit smaller, but "HIS" territory: "Take as much sovereignty as you want." Only this slogan has been extended by Putin to all levels of any, especially professional activity. Cautiously, but at once the "directors" of that time began to "grow rich", and their subordinates down the vertical almost single-handedly began to appoint themselves "allowances". With almost complete non-interference from Moscow, in exchange for political loyalty and compliance with instructions. In courts, in the army, in workshops ... yes everywhere. Then it was quickly transferred to large and lower "business". Legislation began to work with the speed of a mad printer .... Relations between the boss and the subordinate were formed. Brand new, never seen before. (now I'm not talking about "kickbacks" or tenders)

                      I will skip, well-known to all, boring man - an evolutionary description of the development of the "vertical".

                      What do we have now? This is the power of the "Kozyrevs", "Shevardnadz", "Yeltsins", "Vlasovs", "Gorbachevs", at the same time ... but power. At all significant levels ...
                      If she disappears, we will all die quickly. As a country, as peoples, as a family, as a person. Much faster than now. There is a tiny chance of a violent development of events away from the brink of the grave. But he really is tiny. And for "as people" and for "as a state."

                      Will not disappear - we will die with a much higher probability. As a country. As peoples !!! As people, in the end .... we suddenly get sick with something very bad, maybe even well-known and diverse, and die. And I'm not kidding.

                      Almost, 101%. But slower. Almost no one will survive, including those from the "vertical" that fled to the West.

                      Well, like, for example, Ukraine. They think they have chosen their "future". I can see that they are dying out. Or deliberately destroyed. As a potentially dangerous people. Well, like the Indians in America ...

                      So I ask myself

                      Is the vertical of power (Putin) a positive or negative element in the construction of the state?

                      And is the "state" Putin's "power"?
                      1. isofat Offline isofat
                        isofat (isofat) 24 May 2021 15: 59
                        0
                        Kofesan, I advise you to renew your friendship with your head. And it's better to do it quickly, as the person who is most interested in this.

                        Sorry to intervene. yes
                      2. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
                        Kofesan (Valery) 24 May 2021 16: 16
                        -1
                        And sho, have you read all THIS? Here you are ... crazy!
          2. Cyril Offline Cyril
            Cyril (Kirill) 24 May 2021 12: 35
            -1
            This is ruled out due to the 300-year-old strategy of the West. The wealth of the West was bought by robbing the colonies.

            Well, yes, well, yes ... where is the industrial revolution, the transition to high-tech production, etc. It's all about the colonies, that's what Bakhtiyar said :))

            True, for some reason, Portugal and Spain, which had huge colonial possessions, remained not very rich countries. Probably the colonies were not the same?)
  • maiman61 Offline maiman61
    maiman61 (Yuri) 22 May 2021 17: 29
    +8
    Why should Gazprom replay? Gazprom can only rob Russian citizens.
  • kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 22 May 2021 17: 44
    +8
    In gazprom, the gobbled up management will lose everything they can. Brains swam with fat for a long time. Every step, then some mistakes for the state. pockets, But they burst.
    1. Monster_Fat Offline Monster_Fat
      Monster_Fat (What's the difference) 23 May 2021 07: 59
      +3
      Remember how a certain gentleman, as soon as he took over the "national property" with the smile of a Cheshire cat, promised to make this company the first or second in the world in terms of capitalization. Over the years of his successful management, the capitalization of "wealth" has decreased fivefold. On the face of a successful management, "a brilliant manager" whom, as Bugor said, is just waiting to be lured to the West. wink
  • Radziminsky Victor (Radziminsky Victor) 22 May 2021 20: 46
    +1
    Gazprom, fixated on supplies to NATO, enables the United States, constantly
    to blackmail Russia - by a possible cutoff of supplies.
    This knits Russia's hands for an independent policy, for freedom of action.
    1. Igor Berg Offline Igor Berg
      Igor Berg (Igor Berg) 23 May 2021 13: 00
      -2
      The fact of the matter is that, whatever one may say, we need currency. Where can I get it? Only selling to the west. And the USSR did the same. For the capacities of the USSR and the CMEA countries were not enough for normal life in isolation, as now.
      1. Radziminsky Victor (Radziminsky Victor) 23 May 2021 18: 06
        +3
        This is not strategically correct.
        1. Dollars are the currency - all countries of the world have, and not only the European NATO.
        2. Europe is not a promising emerging market.
        3. Promising emerging markets - in the Asian region.
        4. Russia is trying to get rid of the dollar and switch to alternative currencies.
        5. But the main thing! - Selfish momentary projects of Gazprom in NATO - jeopardize
        independent policy of Russia, bring Russia under the blackmail of the US-NATO -
        and enable the US-NATO to manipulate, control, subjugate Russia.
  • Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 22 May 2021 21: 56
    0
    Ah, in the news there is only one Gazprom, Gazprom, Gazprom ...
    What, everyone has his Stock at home? And not one Rosneft share?
  • Kofesan Offline Kofesan
    Kofesan (Valery) 22 May 2021 22: 10
    +1
    This is called: "licked, so licked." Poles love primitive flattery. But their ambition is beyond praise. And stinginess, plus funding from the "EU cash cow", plus Poland's seeming desire to present itself as one of the leading EU powers, plus a complete arrogance based on 30 years of growth, in the so-called "golden age of the Polish economy" ... will be brought to naught Elena Burmistrova's attempt to lick through the brooks ...
  • boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 23 May 2021 00: 14
    +5
    Today Poland is the first candidate for zeroing transit. With the launch of SP2, such an opportunity appears. Even the half capacity of SP2 exactly corresponds to the Polish transit. At the exit from Poland, Yamal-Europe gives 29 billion cubic meters. in year. 33 billion is just at the entrance. The design difference was intended for the Polish industry. But since then, the gentlemen have merged their industry for handouts from the EU.
    They themselves renounced the transit agreement. Now Gazprom may simply not show up for the auction. This has recently been demonstrated by the example of Ukraine.
    Baltic Pipe is generally a dark matter. Initially, from the moment the design work began, it was planned either to pump gas from Denmark to Poland, or VERSAILE. Norway currently offers only 2 billion cubic meters to fill this pipe. m. And it is not a fact that in a few years it will be able to offer at least these 2 billion. Rather, no.
    And there is no permission to cross JV and JV2. At one time, they referred to the statement of the head of the Polish state-owned Gaz-System company Tomasz Stempen from January 2020, but it was not confirmed by anyone. To believe in Poles is not to respect yourself.
    So, it's too early to scoff at Gazprom. For several years Gazprom was buried here and it was predicted that it would be thrown out of Europe by "American" LNG. Rather, "American" LNG will bury the Polish economy. At its cost.
    I see the gas prospects of the Polish "hub" in mourning tones. The light of truth has descended on Ukraine: https://glavred.info/opinions/kak-ukraina-poteryala-zhirnyy-shans-stat-gazovym-habom-10273320.html.
    In total, some 7 years have passed - and, obvious to everyone, it became clear to them too. So the Poles are not very different from the Ukrainians.
    1. Monster_Fat Offline Monster_Fat
      Monster_Fat (What's the difference) 23 May 2021 08: 03
      +2
      The problems of "property" should be considered only in conjunction with the "effective" foreign policy of a multi-moveer. Only then it becomes clear that it was stupid to ask ... and Ukraine was asked ... or everything else, together with the "property". yes
      1. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
        rotkiv04 (Victor) 23 May 2021 08: 21
        -1
        A multi-walker has every move, then crap or concerns from a worried minister
  • cooper Offline cooper
    cooper (Alexander) 23 May 2021 08: 26
    0
    Gas .. hmm .. the giant in Europe now does not "have" only the lazy. Well, and Russian consumers, here it is just the opposite - Gazprom "has" them, outrageously compensating for its glaring failures on the poor fellows. Until ..
    1. Captain stoner Offline Captain stoner
      Captain stoner (Captain Stoner) 23 May 2021 08: 37
      +2
      Well, and Russian consumers, here it is just the opposite - Gazprom "has" them, outrageously compensating for the poor fellows their glaring failures

      I don’t know who Gazprom “has” there. I personally do not count myself among those available.
      Does it have you?
  • marciz Offline marciz
    marciz (Stas) 23 May 2021 08: 46
    -4
    Well, you continue to create a noise of stormy, seething geopolitical, economic, military activity !!!! It is interesting to watch from the outside !!!!
    You are in captivity, too, nothing of your own !!!
  • marciz Offline marciz
    marciz (Stas) 23 May 2021 08: 55
    -3
    The power that poison its citizens with drugs along the way inviting massively migrants from an extremely different society is ANTI-INTERNATIONAL !!!!! Even the Filipino President Dutherte is fighting the drug mafia !!! You can see only one thing you are being led to the next GULAG !!! Taking Ukraine you bent to the fullest in all respects !!!
    1. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 23 May 2021 12: 45
      +3
      The collapse of the socialist system began in Poland. Walesa stirred up stupid laborers from the Gdansk shipyards. Convinced them that they live badly, and he knows how best. Everything fell from Lech. Including the Gdansk shipyards. What are they doing now? Nothing. And they are owned by some Ukrainians.
      The existing industry was leaked for handouts from the EU. In fact, they allowed themselves to be castrated for relatively little money. And who will now invest in industrial recovery when EU handouts run out? Not Russia.
      And yes:

      ... inviting massively migrants ...

      Do Ukrainians go to see you for strawberries?
      1. Captain stoner Offline Captain stoner
        Captain stoner (Captain Stoner) 23 May 2021 21: 26
        0
        The collapse of the socialist system began in Poland.

        ??? Hungary 1956, Czechoslovakia 1968.
        1. boriz Offline boriz
          boriz (boriz) 25 May 2021 01: 24
          0
          Hungary and Czechoslovakia were revived. But the Poles did not. If you want to go out - please.
      2. Oder Offline Oder
        Oder (Wojciech) 24 May 2021 13: 50
        0
        This was facilitated by the bankruptcy of the country and the entire USSR.
        1. boriz Offline boriz
          boriz (boriz) 25 May 2021 01: 25
          0
          Not bankruptcy, but traitors in power. We'll fix it soon. Run back to beg, only the old conditions will no longer be there.
      3. marciz Offline marciz
        marciz (Stas) 25 May 2021 03: 11
        0
        ))) no)) but the Poles at least allow Christians to work for themselves, but you have only Muslims (
        1. 123 Offline 123
          123 (123) 25 May 2021 09: 32
          0
          ))) no)) but the Poles at least allow Christians to work for themselves, but you have only Muslims (

          What are you talking about? Do Ukrainians convert to Islam? belay
        2. Oder Offline Oder
          Oder (Wojciech) 25 May 2021 12: 54
          0
          Hopefully, the old conditions will not exist. They were very bad for us. We can only sign up as equals.
    2. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 23 May 2021 16: 47
      -1
      Taking Ukraine you bent to the fullest in all respects !!!

      The fact that they took you and in what positions they bent you, of course, you won't tell?
      1. marciz Offline marciz
        marciz (Stas) 25 May 2021 03: 13
        +1
        The whole world system bends us down and you alone Chubais through all times and years !!!!
        1. 123 Offline 123
          123 (123) 25 May 2021 09: 29
          -2
          The whole world system bends us down and you alone Chubais through all times and years !!!!

          According to your world system, is it not a shame to surrender? Yes have yes but who fellow So what do you think? Who is Chubais?
        2. boriz Offline boriz
          boriz (boriz) 25 May 2021 11: 59
          0
          1.And Chubais, in your opinion, on his own?
          2. They didn’t bend you. We just bought it.
          1. marciz Offline marciz
            marciz (Stas) 25 May 2021 22: 45
            0
            Well, as you like, think as you like and act only about the fraternal peoples, one people no longer stutter !!
  • Dan Offline Dan
    Dan (Daniel) 23 May 2021 10: 08
    +5
    Probably, the extension of the contract for the supply of Russian gas after 2022, but with a very significant discount for the “great country”.

    I'll start with the question of the article. The whole problem rests on the changes taking place before our eyes in the rules of gas trade within the EU. Previously concluded agreements with Poland were based on tp. Groningen Principles for the Conclusion of Long-Term Gas Trading Contracts. Today, the EU has switched to spot trading, i.e. short-term contracts. Poland, as a semi-independent economic entity, has the opportunity, without concluding a new agreement that contradicts the current rules in the EU, could roll over the old one and receive gas and transit according to the old rules. Burmistrova, realizing the great profitability of "long" contracts with their guarantees of minimum redeemable volumes, is trying to persuade the Poles to make a decision that is beneficial for both Gazprom and Poland. But those, out of political considerations and pressure from the "older" brother, go to the "expensive" store. What will this result in? Poles will buy gas one way or another. Moreover, the volume of purchases will grow for the reason that today they have 60 to 80% of coal power generation, and for this they will have to pay a lot in the EU according to the "decarbonization" program. The source of gas for the Poles will be expensive LNG and gas from hubs in Holland or Austria, possibly from Germany. The gas that they plan to take from Holland (from the Norwegian and Dutch fields) via the Balticpipe previously went to Germany. Today there is a clear downward trend in gas production in these countries. Accordingly, the main burden of gas supplies to European hubs will fall on Algeria, Gazprom and LNG from different locations. In the future, Azerbaijan will be added via Turkey. But there are also problems with adhering to the plan in terms of volumes and it is planned to take the same Gazprom to help. Algeria, even in the most critical frosts, did not even give a bucket of excess gas, limiting itself to the agreed volumes. Thus, Gazprom remains the most efficient and relatively profitable supplier. Today, according to various sources, about 80% of gas is traded on spot markets. This is of course crap, but on the other hand, there is no possibility of blackmailing buyers to reduce the price of gas. What price for gas was determined by the auction will be legal. By keeping the volumes at a certain level, it becomes possible to regulate the spot price. Why is this inconvenient? Yes, by the fact that, figuratively speaking, they used to sell peas in buckets, today we will have to conduct an auction for each pea separately. The system of work of Burmistrova's department will change, most likely, it will be necessary to increase the staff. This is, if very briefly and in large strokes, without touching the issues of booking pumping volumes and attempts to direct robbery (nationalization) in the center of Europe.
    Now, regarding the quality of work of Gazprom's managers. Pouring slops on the heads of PJSC specialists do not even realize how far they themselves are personally from the level of professionalism of these specialists. They somehow completely forget that Gazprom is Russia. And they press him on the part of external counterparties mercilessly, and even illegal. All courts in which disputes are resolved, however, not only on gas, are under the most severe pressure from the United States. They simply squeeze Russia out of European markets by all means, including illegal measures. There, in Europe, a real trade war is going on. And we there with our 147 million souls oppose almost a billion. So imagine our capabilities in comparison with their efforts. In this war, Gazprom, if not a hero, then the most courageous fighter at the forefront of this front. And they are fighting for filling the budget, from which all sorts of steelworkers, maimans and other citizens, who did not have time to turn on their heads in front of a set of beeches on the keyboard, get "all sorts of buns". They forget the main thing, confirmed by the entire history of Russia: in the face of danger, such as today, the strength of Russia lies in the unity of the people. And the main enemies are those who are trying to destroy this unity. Everything is very simple. At the same time, there is always a place for productive criticism in unity. If you accused someone of mediocrity - show in detail who this mediocrity is, what he did wrong and what would have to be done for a positive result.
    1. Dan Offline Dan
      Dan (Daniel) 23 May 2021 10: 51
      0
      Quote: Dan
      plan to take from Holland

      I beg your pardon, not from Holland, but from Denmark ... wink
    2. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 25 May 2021 01: 34
      +2
      The gas that they plan to take from Holland (from Norwegian and Dutch fields)

      Nieders, as gas exporters, are already over. Production stops altogether. They have local shocks up to 4 points from gas sampling. It is believed that 5 points will cause a small tsunami that will break all the dams. After all, the Netherlands is called so because there is a lot of land below sea level.
      And the Norwegians are already promising no more than 2 billion cubic meters for the Polish pipe. m. And when (and if) it comes to business ...
      On the whole, I agree.
  • 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 23 May 2021 16: 44
    +4
    It is extremely important for Gazprom that Poland renegotiates a supply agreement with it after 2022.

    Gazprom is forced to book ...

    Why is this important for Gazprom? Just because "IMPORTANT"? If it is necessary to pump gas, a representative of Gazprom comes to the auction and reserves the capacity. If he does not come, then the auction did not take place. There are no other" buyers "there and cannot be, by definition.

    1) Ambition in monetary terms does not weigh much. What gentlemen are there making plans for gas hubs and in relation to Germany, these are their problems.
    2) There is nothing to fill the terminal at the "mouth of the pigs", the USA does not have the required volumes of gas and means of its delivery. And it is not expected, they are closing gas pipelines, the construction of gas liquefaction facilities and terminals for shipment is not developing. But they are developing in Russia. Novatek, Gazprom are the only ones who can fill it. The fact that this is being done with the mediation of the United States does not particularly concern us. Russia sells its gas, liquefied by the way, is more expensive, the United States withdraws "a small share" as an intermediary, all this will be paid by the Poles and other limitrophes.
    3) The construction of the Baltic Pipe has just begun, they will "receive" more with a pitchfork on the water. By the way, the suppression with the pipelines of Gazprom has not been coordinated; on this issue, optimism is radiated exclusively by the Poles themselves. Well, it looks like the author ...

    At first, the Poles defiantly ensured their energy independence. Then they proved the seriousness of their intentions by abandoning the extension of the transit agreement and at the same time suing Gazprom a tidy sum through the Stockholm arbitration. Now they have set a deadline for when they stop purchasing, for 2022. The clock is ticking, and the Baltic Pipe and LNG terminals are being built

    Is this "processing of the top management of a Russian state corporation"?

    1) They did not provide anything, everything is in the plans.
    2) For withdrawal from the agreement, see the first paragraph.
    3) It looks like the clock of the Poles is ancient, even with a cuckoo, the correct time is shown 2 times a day. The Baltic Pipe is being built, there is nothing to fill it with, only the same totalitarian Russian gas.

    The "smart plan" for the expropriation of the gas pipeline shares from Gazprom is simply enchanting. Who else besides you considers him a genius? smile Can it just be taken away or redeemed? To redeem, the consent of the owner is required. If you take it away, we get a lawsuit, not the fact that the decision will be in favor of the Poles, even taking into account the realities of the European judicial system. Well, something tells me that the Poles also have something to take away, or at least give the opportunity to buy real American gas, which they obviously won't like. For such a "knight's move" you can get a board over your ears.

    In my subjective opinion, the respected author, due to his wild imagination, did not go far from his Polish partners.
  • Canich-dotoshnii 24 May 2021 07: 16
    0
    In Russia, in many regions, the population is still heated with firewood, and Gazprom squanders the "national treasure". Yes, and the prices are raising, seven skins from the Russians fights.
    1. Pivander Offline Pivander
      Pivander (Alex) 24 May 2021 13: 26
      +4
      Half of the center of the "European mega capital" of Riga is also heated with wood, briquettes, pellets, electricity, even if there is a gas pipe right next to the house. So what? The more homeownership considers more profitable, the more it is heated.
      1. Canich-dotoshnii 26 May 2021 08: 21
        +1
        This is their desire

        Quote: Pivander
        Half of the center of the "European mega capital" of Riga is also heated with wood, briquettes, pellets, electricity, even if there is a gas pipe right next to the house.

        whatever they want, let them do it. And in Russia, people mainly want to be heated with gas. But with such gas prices, even those with gas supplies will have to switch to firewood.
    2. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 25 May 2021 01: 41
      +2
      Where are you from? Your country is probably bigger than Russia? Do you know how to carry gas pipelines cheaply? Share your experience.
    3. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 25 May 2021 09: 50
      0
      In Russia, in many regions, the population is still heated with firewood, and Gazprom squanders the "national treasure". Yes, and the prices are raising, seven skins from the Russians fights.

      For reference, almost a third of the energy consumed in Finland comes from burning wood. In 2020, this is 356 TJ. of the total energy consumption - 281 1 277 TJ. As far as I understand, no one is pulling out their hair about this, they don't sprinkle ashes from the fire on their heads. Please tell us in more detail, in which region does Gazprom "pull seven skins"? For example, our prices are reasonable.
      1. Canich-dotoshnii 26 May 2021 08: 58
        +1
        Quote: 123
        Please tell us in more detail, in which region does Gazprom "pull seven skins"?

        In the Stavropol Territory, 1 m3 of gas costs 6.16 rubles.
        If your salary is Moscow, then of course, this is acceptable for you.
        1. 123 Offline 123
          123 (123) 26 May 2021 11: 00
          -1
          In the Stavropol Territory, 1 m3 of gas costs 6.16 rubles.
          If your salary is Moscow, then of course, this is acceptable for you.

          In my payment order it is written: Tariff 6 384,67 per 1 cubic meters, respectively 6,38 per cubic meter.
          Gas is heating, the stove and the boiler heats the water, the water supply is only cold. We pay more in winter, less in short northern summers. The amount of more than 1 thousand rubles in the payment order is rare. Average monthly consumption of 64 cubic meters, respectively 410 rubles. For me this is acceptable, the Internet 600 manages with something. We have snow in Siberia from October to May, your grass is green in March, flowers are blooming. I don’t know what you are heating there, a house of 3 hectares or greenhouses, that it’s so expensive for you. The point is probably not Gazprom's greed, "just a tender skin", in the sense that the salary is so small that it is so critical for you. But in my opinion this is not a question for gas workers.

  • Oder Offline Oder
    Oder (Wojciech) 24 May 2021 13: 46
    0
    Quote: boriz
    So the Poles are not very different from the Ukrainians.

    Say it in the face of a Pole and you will get hit in the face.
    1. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 25 May 2021 01: 39
      +3
      You're a racist! And how are they so different? Enlighten.
      Better tell me, have you received permission to cross the Baltic Pipe with JV and JV2? It is very interesting to me.
      1. Oder Offline Oder
        Oder (Wojciech) 25 May 2021 12: 56
        -1
        You're racist too, you're so mad you're gonna get a heart attack
        1. boriz Offline boriz
          boriz (boriz) 25 May 2021 20: 01
          0
          Don't poke me.
          Asked a question - answer.