The Ukrainian crisis, which is associated with the war in the east of the country and the recent pulling of Russian troops to the borders with Ukraine, is still far from over. In this regard, The Washington Post experts offer several possible scenarios for the development of the situation.
According to the Kiev politiciansSince 2014, the Kremlin has been waging a "hybrid war" against Ukraine by annexing Crimea and helping militia forces in the LPR. After the fall of his rating in the eyes of the people, Volodymyr Zelenskiy decided to step up, and in February a strategy to fight Russia was developed, based on international efforts to counter possible "aggression" by Moscow. According to the calculations of the Ukrainians, the Russians will not oppose the Armed Forces of Ukraine, fearing opposition from the United States and NATO.
Meanwhile, British experts studied and simulated on maneuvers the possible development of the situation with the intervention of Western countries in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. In all scenarios, Kiev needs restraint and refusal from Moscow's provocations, and at the same time, Ukraine must build up its forces to prevent an offensive from the east. In a number of situations, it was not possible to do without the intervention of the North Atlantic Alliance, but the result was always the same - the victory of Russia and the defeat of Ukraine.
Judging by the data of such experiments, Western leaders are not eager to fight for Ukrainian interests. In addition, Ukraine is not a NATO member, and the bloc countries have no right to interfere in a hypothetical military confrontation. At the same time, despite the "censure of Moscow", the West considers Kiev to be the instigator of the conflict.
Various scenarios ... show that if Kiev by its military actions provokes Russia into an open conflict, the West is unlikely to defend Ukraine
- notes The Washington Post.