European "carbon tax" will have a serious impact on the Russian economy


Starting in 2023, the European Union will introduce a special “carbon tax” for foreign companies supplying products to its market. First of all, it will affect the exporters of oil, gas, petrochemicals, metallurgy, fertilizers, and cement, the production of which emits a significant amount of greenhouse gases. This means that the main burden of the new "environmental burden" will fall on Russia. How can our country respond to this challenge?


First of all, it is necessary to point out that the "carbon tax" is the flip side of the "decarbonization" program of the world economics... The leadership of the European Union has set a goal to achieve its climate neutrality by 2050. For this, it is necessary to gradually abandon the use of coal, oil and gas in the energy sector and switch to renewable "green" energy sources. Obviously, this will lead to an increase in the costs of European manufacturers, therefore, equalizing their chances in comparison with “carbon” competitors is possible only through administrative levers, in particular, the introduction of a special tax on importers of products with a high “carbon footprint” in production.

For our country, all this is doubly bad news... On the one hand, Europe, the largest market for the sale of Russian hydrocarbons, will systematically reduce their consumption in the next 20-30 years. On the other hand, additional costs are artificially introduced for exporters of other products. And this can become a very big problem, since up to 40% of domestic exports can fall under the "carbon tax". And we are only talking about the European market, although the United States and China are also thinking about similar protective measures to protect their domestic market and local producers. What will Russia be left with then?

The fact is that our “carbon footprint” is really very large, which is influenced by a combination of several factors. First, Russia's main export commodity is not electric cars or smartphones, but gas, oil and metals. Secondly, during their extraction and production, a lot of electrical and thermal energy is consumed, which is not obtained from "green" sources. Thirdly, energy is also expended when pumping oil and gas through pipelines, from which, according to European experts, leaks can occur. There are no exact methods for calculating the "carbon tax" yet, but according to preliminary estimates, losses of Russian exporters by 2030 may amount to 5 to 50 billion euros. The average figure is 33 billion.

The fee will probably be small initially, but its size and the number of items it covers will only increase. It is estimated that rolled steel producers could lose up to 40% of their profits, pulp up to 60%, and crude oil exporters up to 20%. It is not hard to guess that the state will be forced to meet domestic oligarchs halfway and reduce the tax burden for them: the budget allocations from the mineral extraction tax and the export duty on oil and gas will be reduced. This means that the financial capabilities of the federal center will be reduced even more, and the shortfall from raw materials producers will have to be compensated for by an increase in the tax burden on someone else. (I wonder who?). However, there is no doubt that our government, headed by the former chief tax officer of the country, Mikhail Mishustin, will definitely come up with something.

But, perhaps, we shouldn't be grumbled in vain, and for the sake of an ecologically clean planet is it worth tightening our belts and being patient? Perhaps so. Or maybe not. The fact that the "green world" is simply a convenient pretext for the global redistribution of the world economy is evidenced by one important nuance. If we were talking about finding a real balance between harmful emissions and compensation for the damage caused to nature for them, then it should be borne in mind that CO2 emissions tend to be absorbed by forests. Our country is one of the leaders in terms of forest cover, rightfully considered the “lungs of the planet”. Yes, the Russian industry makes its modest contribution to the warming-box, but the forests absorb these emissions and purify the atmosphere. If everything were fair and purely for the sake of the environment, EU officials would take this factor into account when calculating the “carbon tax” methodology, but they simply ignore it on far-fetched pretexts. Perhaps because in the EU the forest area is relatively small and cannot compete with the Russian.

The "carbon stranglehold" will gradually begin to squeeze the raw-material export-oriented domestic economy in just two years. And what is left for us to do?

There are only three options left. For the transition period, use the mechanism of mutual redemption of CO2 emissions quotas, which make the products climate-neutral on paper. To start a program for the comprehensive reindustrialization of the Russian economy and the introduction of "green" energy sources in the production of products in order to diversify them and reduce dependence on the export of hydrocarbon raw materials. Through negotiations, seek from European officials to take into account the "forest factor" when determining the tax burden. Then, if the volume of emissions is exceeded, domestic producers will be able to compensate for them by planting new forests and restoring burned out forests. This would be a great blessing for our long-suffering taiga.
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  1. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
    rotkiv04 (Victor) 15 May 2021 11: 40
    +1
    Great news, it will give another magical pendal to the Kremlin inmates, so that they do not write the theses in May, but do business
  2. Rinat Offline Rinat
    Rinat (Rinat) 15 May 2021 11: 49
    +5
    Europe, according to the old international capitalist rules, is losing in the competition to Russia and China. Therefore, in order to retain its lost advantage, the West is rewriting these rules unilaterally.
  3. Termit1309 Offline Termit1309
    Termit1309 (Alexander) 15 May 2021 11: 50
    0
    And what is left for us to do?
    Kill your head against the wall.
  4. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 15 May 2021 12: 26
    +4
    Tell us about the long-suffering taiga in the Carpathians laughing
    The world is divided into separate clusters, the global economy is trying on a copper basin. We need to prepare for this.
    The moaning about the US tax is ridiculous, trade with Penguin Island is minimal and will continue to decline.
    As for the export of raw materials, its share is consistently decreasing. In 2020, the volume of exports amounted to $ 338,2 billion, including non-commodity $ 161,3, which is about 50%.

    Trade with the EU is also consistently declining, in 2020 the turnover decreased by 25% and amounted to 174,2 billion euros ($ 211,58).
    https://seanews.ru/2021/02/17/ru-vneshnetorgovyj-oborot-rossija-es-28/

    The share of the EU in foreign trade is decreasing, in 2020 it is about 39%, the APEC countries - 34,0%. Over the year, the volume of trade with Europe decreased by about 3%, with Asia increased by about 2%. The trend is however.
  5. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 15 May 2021 13: 25
    0
    Quote: 123
    As for the export of raw materials, its share is consistently decreasing. In 2020, the volume of exports amounted to $ 338,2 billion, including non-commodity $ 161,3, which is about 50%.

    You are substituting concepts. The export of raw materials is declining not because the export of manufactured goods is growing. The demand for our oil and gas is simply declining. These are two different things.
    1. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 15 May 2021 14: 58
      +5
      You are substituting concepts. The export of raw materials is declining not because the export of manufactured goods is growing. The demand for our oil and gas is simply declining. These are two different things.

      I was not talking about reducing the export of raw materials, but about reducing its share in exports.
      Non-commodity exports in 2020 - $ 161,3 billion, 2019 - $ 155,1 billion.As of November last year, exports decreased by 21,8%. It turns out that non-resource exports grew by $ 6,2 billion, try to answer the question - due to what did the export decrease?
      We still have to work and work on the depth of processing, but there is some progress in the right direction. Don't pretend it isn't.
  6. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 15 May 2021 13: 57
    +2
    It would be nice to also reduce exports to Europe for all items of goods.
  7. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 15 May 2021 15: 25
    0
    It will have an effect, but not on the economy - it is now stably stuck in our country - but on the population.

    The oligarchs have repeatedly stated - we will not take it outside - we will take it on the domestic market.

    Prices are already rushing up, and will continue to rush. And the Kremlin will give instructions and comfort everyone ...
  8. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 15 May 2021 18: 58
    -4
    but forests absorb these emissions and purify the atmosphere. If everything was fair and purely for the sake of the environment, EU officials would take this factor into account when calculating the carbon tax methods.
    Perhaps because in the EU the forest area is relatively small and cannot compete with the Russian.

    - Figs ... - It is unlikely that Russia will be able to play the "forest card" in its favor ... - The pragmatic EU ... - will immediately play the "fire card" against Russia; those. will simply expose the results of extensive fires in these vast forest lands owned by Russia ... - These annual forest fires in Russia give such a colossal "carbon emission" into the atmosphere; that no extraction of hydrocarbons and the production of rolled metal products are simply not suitable for these fires ...
    - So it's better not to "trump" Russia at all with the "forest theme" ...
  9. Igor Berg Offline Igor Berg
    Igor Berg (Igor Berg) 15 May 2021 19: 16
    -3
    It is not hard to guess that the state will be forced to meet the domestic oligarchs halfway and reduce the tax burden for them ... and the shortfall from raw materials producers will have to be compensated for by an increase in the tax burden on someone else. (I wonder who?).

    This says EVERYTHING about our power and the fate of ordinary people. This is the bottom. Russian billionaires have broken through their wealth the bar of 35% of the country's GDP. They received their income to the greatest extent through non-ecological or “potentially corrupt” sectors of the economy. 35% - the highest concentration of wealth in the world relative to the size of GDP, Russia is the undisputed leader in this matter.
    If you look at it, then everything converges: in the country, billionaires are either serious corrupt officials or the owners of an industry that pollutes nature.
  10. Radziminsky Victor (Radziminsky Victor) 15 May 2021 22: 37
    0
    I continue to poll about the strategy of our "elite" - "And necessarily the main" flows! "And supplies
    energy supplies should go to NATO? "
    So that Russia could be blackmailed - "Sit still, - otherwise we will" curtain "you,
    "we will block something" and impose taxes?
    Are there promising emerging markets around Russia?
    Well at least China was formed in these "streams."
    How long can you hang on a hook and squeak in this European mousetrap?
    1. Igor Berg Offline Igor Berg
      Igor Berg (Igor Berg) 16 May 2021 13: 52
      -2
      "And must the main" flows! "And energy supplies go to NATO?"

      Yes, of course, because they have euros and dollars. And without currency, our Russian Federation will bend.
      1. Radziminsky Victor (Radziminsky Victor) 16 May 2021 17: 38
        +2
        Oh, wrong ...
        1. Dollars are in all countries of the world.
        2. Russia is trying to switch to alternative currencies in settlements.
  11. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 16 May 2021 07: 52
    0
    Quote: Viktor Radziminsky
    How long can you hang on a hook and squeak in this European mousetrap?

    We have the geopolitics for which the majority of those who came to the elections vote.
    1. Radziminsky Victor (Radziminsky Victor) 16 May 2021 18: 17
      +1
      You indulge in unsubscriptions, Seryozha ...
      The majority "for the European choice" are Moldova and Ukraine. Not the majority in Russia.
      "Yes! Asians we are ..."
      Here, I hope - maybe some of the oligarchs are already digging a tunnel to India and Pakistan, at night ...
  12. Potapov Offline Potapov
    Potapov (Valery) 16 May 2021 07: 54
    -1
    I love the sanctions of civilized partners ... The last refuge of patriots.
  13. PokerFace Offline PokerFace
    PokerFace (Kirill) 16 May 2021 23: 06
    +2
    Or maybe we should stop squandering our resources for a pittance (conventionally), and save them to our children and grandchildren?
  14. Canich-dotoshnii 17 May 2021 07: 43
    +1
    The Russian authorities will pass all the costs onto the shoulders of their people. Prices for petroleum products, and not only, will again gallop upward.
  15. aquarius580 Offline aquarius580
    aquarius580 17 May 2021 07: 54
    0
    There is another option: to restore the economy of the Soviet type, in which the USSR produced everything on its own (except for exotic things, such as precision machine tools).
  16. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 18 May 2021 13: 58
    0
    As far as the West will increase the tax, so much will the Russian Federation increase the value of the goods!
  17. Canich-dotoshnii 19 May 2021 06: 50
    0
    They do not want to buy cheap energy resources, let them switch to expensive ones. This will lead to higher prices for the final product. And the buyer himself decides what to buy.
  18. Dust Offline Dust
    Dust (Sergei) 20 May 2021 10: 34
    +1
    It is possible to tax products from the EU, in the production of which energy sources with a high "carbon footprint" were used .... incl. and when generating electricity.
    The introduction of a carbon tax makes sense only at the global level, otherwise Europe will only increase the cost of its products, which will become uncompetitive in comparison with Asia. Oil exporters (all - and the Saudis too) will simply include this tax in the cost of hydrocarbons destined for the EU, so as not to reduce their corporate profits. As you know, any tax for the seller is paid by the consumer. Since this tax is set for sales in the EU, consumers in the EU will pay it, or Europe will be left without oil and gas. This is their problem. By the way, to pay extra for the possibility of supplying oil, gas, metals, do they have a queue of suppliers with energy resources cheaper than Russian ones?
  19. Vladimir Sh. Offline Vladimir Sh.
    Vladimir Sh. (Vladimir Shashko) 4 June 2021 08: 11
    +1
    This is another trick of the West to get free raw materials and even with a profit ...