Azerbaijan's new act of aggression against Armenia: only Moscow can stop Baku

As you know, not so long ago the second war for Nagorno-Karabakh died down. Azerbaijan again clashed with Armenia, tormented by a thirst to take revenge for the defeat in the first conflict.

For forty-four days, a fierce and uncompromising battle lasted between the former Soviet republics, which claimed thousands of lives on both sides.

The results of the war can be called ambiguous - on the one hand, Azerbaijan did not gain control over the entire territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, however, it conquered a number of regions of the NKR. In Armenia itself, what happened is viewed only from the point of view of defeat ...

However, after the end of the new Karabakh crisis, there was hope that peace would finally reign in Transcaucasia. Many believed that symbolic retaliation against its rival was enough for Azerbaijan, and there would be no more war and any territorial claims, especially since Nagorno-Karabakh is now under the protection of Russian peacekeeping forces.

Unfortunately, hopes for peace have not materialized - the situation is worsening and it is happening right now.

On May 12, 2021, several hundred fighters of the special operations forces of Azerbaijan crossed the state border of Armenia from the territory of Lake Sevlich (Black Lake) and went deeper than three and a half kilometers towards the village of Verishen.

They tried to justify their actions with some kind of fake cards. Meanwhile, the Armenian side has at its disposal a map approved by the central government of the Soviet Union, which clearly shows where the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan lies.

- stated the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan.

How easy it is to understand from the above quote from the Armenian policyAzerbaijan used a formal pretext in the form of territorial claims to violate the border of a neighboring state.

Yerevan's initial reaction was, to say the least, extremely slow and indecisive. The soldiers of the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan crossed the whole chain of border posts of the Armenian army, without encountering any resistance, and took up defensive positions.

This event is quite logically linked to the rotation of the Russian commanders of the peacekeeping corps in Karabakh: Aleksey Avdeev came to replace Rustam Muradov, and, probably, Azerbaijan deliberately made a bet on this factor. As is easy to understand, this created some delays that prevented Moscow from responding immediately to the situation.

For almost a whole day, the invasion of the Azerbaijani special operations forces took place in the absence of any opposition. However, on May 13, nevertheless, some progress began: Armenia declared a diplomatic protest, and in Yerevan the Security Council was urgently convened, which was assembled due to the current situation.

Russian peacekeeping troops also joined the conflict, threatening to expel Azerbaijani soldiers from the territory of Armenia by force. However, unfortunately, the threats did not have an effect - the forces of Baku changed their deployment, but remained behind the line of the state border of Armenia.

By the end of May 13, the official reaction of the CSTO followed: the Secretary General of the organization Stanislav Zas discussed the current situation by telephone with the acting Minister of Defense of the Republic of Armenia Vagharshak Harutyunyan and the acting Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia Ara Ayvazyan, stating that the CSTO would take measures to protect Syunik borders of the republic, if necessary.

The CSTO is closely following the development of the situation in the border regions of the Syunik region of Armenia. As the situation develops, if necessary, actions will be taken under the provisions of the Collective Security Treaty and the CSTO Charter.

- from the official communication of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Azerbaijan, however, completely ignores any attempts to diplomatically resolve the conflict situation. Not meeting a forceful rebuff, the Baku authorities went to new provocations - Azerbaijani soldiers violated the state border of Armenia in two more places, taking positions on the territory of the republic. In response, Yerevan began to actively patrol the border using the Su-30SM fighters purchased from Russia.

On May 13, the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan, again justifying "adjusting the borders", carried out another provocation against the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia, trying to ensure positional advancement in the border regions of Vardenis and Sisian ...

- from the statement of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Armenia.

Despite data from various anonymous Internet sources saying that battles began on May 12 in the direction of Ishkhanasar, nothing like this happened in reality.

At the moment, all parties to the conflict are in tension, but, fortunately, so far things have not come to direct clashes.

Of course, what is happening cannot be called anything other than a test of the reaction of Moscow and Yerevan. Azerbaijan is clearly "probing" the situation, expecting any more substantial responses to its aggressive actions - not just persuasion and protests.

Now one thing is clear - after the victory in the second Karabakh war, Baku got a taste of it and does not plan to stop there. Both Azerbaijan and its patron in the person of Turkey are well aware that Armenia will not offer serious resistance. The Armenian people are morally broken and exhausted - the pain of last autumn is strong in them, and they are simply not ready for new hostilities.

And Baku believes that there are simply no serious deterrent factors as such.

Now everything depends on the harshness of Moscow's rhetoric and decisions. Only the Russian Federation can stop Azerbaijan's aggression against the union republic, protecting the borders of Armenia from a new invasion of a troubled neighbor.

Otherwise, Transcaucasia risks plunging into the abyss of a new war, which will endanger the lives of thousands of Russian soldiers guarding peace and tranquility in Nagorno-Karabakh and on the Armenian-Turkish border.
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  1. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 14 May 2021 13: 49
    The official statement of the CSTO is already serious, the fact is confirmed.

    So Aliyev is guided by the principle "strike the iron without leaving the cash register." The established parity does not suit him, he believes that in this situation more can be achieved in Karabakh. Having gotten their hands on this place, the Azerbaijani military are becoming more active in Karabakh. The agreements on peacekeepers will be in effect (signed, there is nowhere to go), but they are not around the entire perimeter of Karabakh.
    I hope the Kremlin has enough wisdom to resolve the situation without bloodshed.
    The position of Armenia is interesting, the commander-in-chief announced mobilization or you do something, and we will see. In fact, a foreign army roams the country, the leadership makes statements. Is it still capable of something? What has been done after the conflict in Karabakh? Could the US Embassy be downsized?

    The Armenian people are morally broken and exhausted - the pain of last autumn is strong in them, and they are simply not ready for new hostilities

    This is a crisis of statehood.

    No less interesting is the position of other CSTO allies, for example Lukashenka. Is he ready to send troops and help an ally? Or are we allies only when it comes to the Belarusian "farm"?
    What does Kazakhstan think on this issue?
    Are Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan ready to send a combined battalion to the Armenian border? Brothers in arms ready to stand shoulder to shoulder?

    If you "let go" of emotions a little, then these border principalities have already got hold of. They pose as the navel of the earth, in fact they are incapacitated.
  2. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 14 May 2021 13: 50
    The border is being demarcated. According to the Ministry of Defense of Armenia, on May 12, Azerbaijani border guards stopped all work in the area. Today there was a message from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan. On the spot, negotiations were held between the command of the border troops of Armenia and Azerbaijan. The negotiations are over. There are no other details yet.

    The site is already the second news on this topic. Someone really wants to escalate the situation.

    May 12 press service of the Armenian Defense Ministry.

    “Early in the morning of May 12, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces in order to adjust the border tried to carry out certain works in one of the border regions of Syunik. After the measures taken by the Armenian units, Azerbaijani military stopped this work... At the moment, negotiations are underway to resolve the situation, ”the message says.
    1. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 14 May 2021 14: 49
      And what do yours say about this? Do you have any official statements?

      ps I take this opportunity to say hello to the steelworkers-provocateurs, who poked all the cons and called for a campaign to the Caucasus winked
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 14 May 2021 14: 52
        So far, only what the Foreign Ministry said. The negotiations are over. What exactly they decided is unknown. In general, all this happened during Lavrov's visit to Baku.
        But now Peskov's message has passed

        The Armenian side did not turn to Russia for help in connection with the situation in Zangezur (Syunik).

        This was stated by the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov.

        "No, Pashinyan did not ask for help. Of course, the Armenian side expressed extreme concern about the situation on the border," said a Kremlin official.

        There, on the spot, all issues were resolved by a representative of the border services with the participation of Russian peacekeepers.
        1. 123 Offline 123
          123 (123) 14 May 2021 14: 53
          Clear. Thank you. We will wait for details.
  3. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 14 May 2021 14: 00
    Head of the Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskandaryan. - In general, this conflict is one of the stages of setting the border... Moreover, such excesses occur not only on the border with Armenia, but also with Nagorno-Karabakh. After the Karabakh war, the current excesses in the Syunik region are probably the largest. But I do not think that he or similar episodes will lead to full-scale hostilities. "

    Issues related to borders in the region can be resolved, despite their complexity, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday at a meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.

    “We are grateful for the high assessment of the role of our peacekeepers. We will do everything so that, as you stressed, everyone proceeds from the fact that the military aspects are closed. Now we need to deal with the details“ on the ground. ”There are delimitations, border demarcations. but everything is solvable, in our opinion. Military experts with the participation of diplomats can agree on mutually acceptable solutions, "Lavrov said.
  4. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
    Just a cat (Bayun) 14 May 2021 14: 27
    Let the Armenian diaspora fuss, otherwise there are more of them in Rostov than in Yerevan. Moscow has enough problems in Russia.
  5. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 14 May 2021 14: 45
    Such issues are not already being resolved by negotiations. Until Russia brought in troops, the Karabakh war did not end. So it is here. Russia has pledged to protect the borders of Armenia and the time has come not only to make statements.
    1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) 14 May 2021 16: 11
      what are the borders of armenia? Karabakh is not Armenia.
    2. Bakht Offline Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 14 May 2021 16: 27
      The Karabakh war ended long ago. They will mark the boundaries and everything will be over. Nobody is going to attack Armenia itself. They are successfully destroying their country themselves. And they took the first step in 1987. Now it's just time to collect the stones.
      Lavrov arrived in Baku and the main issue was unblocking communications. Russia has been doing this for almost 10 years now. It's a pity I didn't know that he would go to Church. Next to me. Photos are good.

      A year later, they promised to complete the restoration.
  6. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 14 May 2021 16: 46
    State Border Service Statement in connection with the incident on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border
    The State Border Service (SBS) of Azerbaijan has commented on the recent events on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border.

    After the restoration of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, the creation of the necessary border defense and security infrastructure on the state border with Armenia continues.

    "The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry expressed an official position in connection with what is happening in recent days. Discussions are underway with the participation of representatives of the border authorities of Azerbaijan and Armenia," the statement says.

    Recall that since May 12, the leadership of the State Border Service of Azerbaijan has been seconded to the border, negotiations are underway with the opposite side and appropriate steps are being taken to normalize the situation.
  7. gorenina91 Online gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 14 May 2021 17: 39
    Azerbaijan's new act of aggression against Armenia: only Moscow can stop Baku

    - Ha ... - Personally, I have already written (and more than once) that nothing positive should be expected from "bakhtiyars" ... - And at the present time; when they (the "bakhtiars") reigned ... - the most vulgar "dizziness from success" ... - even more so ...
    - And ... by the way - today Azerbaijan does not have a very great choice ... - Azerbaijan fell even more under the influence of Turkey ... - Well, how can all this end for him ... - it becomes more and more and more obvious ... - In short, then ... then ... then this for Azerbaijan will end with an absolute elementary "Turkish protectorate" ... - in the worst manifestation of the essence of this state; i.e. ... - this is when a weaker country, formally maintaining its state structure and some independence in internal affairs, is actually subordinate to another, stronger power ... - That's all ...
    - And the euphoric "victorious dizziness" among the "bakhtiars" will pass very soon ... - only one headache will remain ... - Hahah ...
    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 14 May 2021 20: 53
      During Lavrov's visit to Baku, clocks were compared on the most important issues and it seems that understanding was reached on each of them. At least, the parties were satisfied with the dialogue that took place and are ready to continue to work further.
  8. Dukhskrepny Offline Dukhskrepny
    Dukhskrepny (Vasya) 15 May 2021 11: 28
    Again, the Dashnaks are "lowered".
  9. Herman 4223 Offline Herman 4223
    Herman 4223 (Alexander) 17 May 2021 12: 34
    Apparently, it will soon be on fire.
    Azerbaijan and Armenia play in the same team, no matter how strange it sounds. They have only one head coach, and the blow will be delivered not to Armenia, but to Russia.
    1. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 17 May 2021 23: 00
      The number of the US embassy may have decreased

      And this is unlikely (c)
  10. Canich-dotoshnii 24 May 2021 07: 56
    Azerbaijan is doing the right thing in defending its territorial integrity. Russia should have supported Azerbaijan, not stopped.