Global warming will be a serious challenge for the Russian economy


The climate on Earth is changing right before our eyes, and after it the whole world is changing. economy... Russia, most of whose territory is located in the permafrost zone, will feel these changes more than others. What are the pros and cons of global warming in our country?


The steady rise in temperature on the planet can most of all affect the Arctic zone of Russia. Melting polar ice and permafrost will open up some new opportunities, but at the same time will create a lot of additional problems for us.

At first, the release from the ice cover will make the Northern Sea Route more attractive as an alternative waterway to the Suez Canal. In the future, it has a chance to become navigable all year round. This is undoubtedly a big plus, but the minus is that Russia may lose its exclusive status of the "operator" of the NSR, which sets its own rules for piloting and provides pilotage services for a fee using powerful icebreakers.

Secondly, the melting of permafrost in the future can make the northern regions of our country more attractive for agriculture. The head of the Ministry of Natural Resources Alexander Kozlov said this the day before:

Each such region understands what will happen to it in 20-30 years - it will cease to be northern or suddenly become brightly agricultural. You need to adapt to this.

Indeed, on the globe, Russia is the largest country in the world, but only a smaller part of it can be effectively used for economic activity, since 60% of the territory is located in the permafrost zone. Therefore, traditionally in the northern regions, it is customary for us to engage in animal husbandry. When the permafrost moves further towards the Arctic, new opportunities will appear for farmers. Alas, they will be rather limited: the soils there will be bad (and where would the black soil come from?), The weather will be unstable, and the new territories will belong to the zone of risky farming. In other words, if one wishes, in 20-30 years, near Arkhangelsk, it will be possible to grow something very atypical for this region, but in terms of commercial efficiency, the north will not be able to compete with the southern regions. By the way, climate change will also have a negative impact on the South of Russia: according to environmentalists' forecasts, such natural phenomena as droughts, floods, unexpected cold waves during the growing season, etc. will become more frequent and intensified there.

Thirdly, our country runs the risk of unwittingly becoming the largest greenhouse gas polluter of the atmosphere. With the acceleration of the melting of permafrost, the release of CO2 and methane can increase by 10 times. This can nullify the entire positive effect of attempts to "decarbonize" the world economy.

Fourthly, due to the retreat of the permafrost zone further to the north, Russia will face an increasing number of man-made disasters. Last year, at CHPP-3, owned by Norilsk Nickel, there was a spill of diesel fuel from the tank, which got into the ground and the river and caused colossal environmental damage. One of the reasons for the emergency was the thawing of the soil under the support of the tank. Indeed, when the entire Arctic infrastructure was created under the USSR, the foundations and piles of buildings were designed for a certain depth of permafrost, but that was not so eternal. Buildings in the northern regions are gradually deforming and losing their stability, and this is a huge problem. During the Soviet period, there was a system of constant monitoring of soil change processes and the so-called "permafrost commissions" in all municipalities. In the 90s, they were liquidated and to this day have not been recreated. As the company's management later admitted, Norilsk Nickel did not carry out regular monitoring of the state of permafrost under the fuel tanks of CHPP-3 at all. Not done.

There are negative forecast scenarios according to which in the Far North of Russia in 20-30 years up to 54% of buildings may be deformed or destroyed. So, it is very symbolic that in 2009 the brick building of the Research Institute of Agriculture of the Far North in Norilsk, designed to promote agriculture in high latitudes, cracked, and its team had to be hastily evacuated. In all likelihood, in the future, in the Arctic zone, it will be necessary to move to the construction of modular, easily erected houses, which, if necessary, can be disassembled and moved to another place. And this, of course, is money, big money.

Fifthly, problems are expected with that vital infrastructure for the state that, with all the desire, it is impossible to simply disassemble and move. These are, for example, oil and gas pipelines, as well as oil storage facilities. According to recent research by Natural Communications, between 48% and 87% of Russia's Arctic infrastructure is located in the permafrost melting zone:

Central oil or natural gas transportation routes could be at serious risk: 1590 kilometers of the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline, 1260 kilometers of large gas pipelines that begin in the Yamal-Nenets region, and 550 kilometers of the Trans-Alaska oil pipeline are in an area where near-surface permafrost can melt by 2050.

According to Dmitry Streletsky, professor at the George Washington University, the cumulative damage to Russia from the deformation and destruction of the infrastructure of the Far North could amount to about $ 250 billion by 2050. Of course, all these predictions are not the ultimate truth, however, 20-30 years is a very short time, and one should think hard about the possible risks right now, so as not to arrange rush jobs later.
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  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 12 May 2021 13: 07
    0
    Old houses need to be replaced with new ones anyway - even in prosperous Moscow, renovation is underway. And construction technologies are changing. It won't be any better in Canada. And agricultural can be planted in greenhouses. And if the Gulf Stream begins to cool down, then it remains to be seen how things will go in the Far North ...
  2. Yuri Kostikov Offline Yuri Kostikov
    Yuri Kostikov (Yuri Kostikov) 12 May 2021 13: 44
    +3
    This is not the first time I read horror stories about the danger of global warming with regards to Russia. To say that they are pulling an owl onto the globe is to say nothing. But here's the thing. More than one akhtor has not written about the advantages of the so-called. "global warming" for Russia. For some reason, the authors do not want to think that if the country harvests not one but two crops a year, it will be great. Not a single author even thought that less would have to be spent on infrastructure maintenance if the climate became milder and there would be less temperature jumps through 0. Unfortunately, the authors do not care about reducing heating costs and reducing the consequences of colds. The author is concerned about the natural processes of the release of carbon dioxide, which plants will gladly absorb. And of course the author is concerned about the ice-freeing of the NSR, but not in terms of developing the coastal zone, resources and shipping, but that someone will try to take it away from us. It is strange for me that such thoughts arise at all. Why the hell do we have to give anything at all to someone that belongs to us ??? Or does Katz offer to surrender right away?
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 12 May 2021 14: 49
      0
      For some reason, the authors do not want to think that if the country harvests not one but two crops a year, it will be great.

      Excuse me, but where did the topic about 2 harvests a year come from? request

      The author is worried about the natural processes of the release of carbon dioxide, which plants will gladly absorb.

      Damn it, then Europeans and Americans will have to abolish decarbonization. Simple as that.

      Not a single author even thought that less would have to be spent on infrastructure maintenance if the climate became milder and there would be less temperature jumps through 0.

      Tell this to the people of Texas and other southern states wink

      And of course the author is concerned about the ice-freeing of the NSR, but not in terms of developing the coastal zone, resources and shipping, but that someone will try to take it away from us. It is strange for me that such thoughts arise at all. Why the hell do we have to give anything at all to someone that belongs to us ???

      The NSR does not belong to Russia. It has exclusive rights to it in accordance with the Convention, as long as the water surface is covered with permanent ice cover. As soon as it is gone (as a result of melting), these provisions will be immediately revised by all interested parties, and there are enough of them. And it will be an ordinary international waterway, where everyone who wishes will roam about.
      1. Darling Offline Darling
        Darling (Darling) 12 May 2021 17: 09
        +1
        As a result of the melting of the ice, the SMP track will also change, then everyone who wants to really roam about. But now it passes through the territorial waters of the Russian Federation.
      2. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 13 May 2021 19: 34
        +4
        Sergey, the climate is a complex issue. A number of scientists today say that the Earth is entering a new Little Ice Age and the climate on the planet, in the foreseeable future, will only get colder.
  3. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 12 May 2021 16: 18
    -1
    provides pilotage services for a fee using powerful icebreakers

    There is ice escort, there is pilotage. These concepts are not identical.
  4. nikolaj1703 Offline nikolaj1703
    nikolaj1703 (Nikolai) 12 May 2021 17: 21
    +1
    Hot summers mean nothing, winters can be very cold. The activity of the Sun has dropped.
  5. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 13 May 2021 07: 30
    -2
    Quote: Darling
    As a result of the melting of the ice, the SMP track will also change, then everyone who wants to really roam about. But now it passes through the territorial waters of the Russian Federation.

    So far, yes, but we are talking about a horizon of 20-30 years.
  6. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 13 May 2021 07: 31
    0
    Quote: Petr Vladimirovich
    provides pilotage services for a fee using powerful icebreakers

    There is ice escort, there is pilotage. These concepts are not identical.

    They are not formally identical. But in the conditions of the NSR, no pilotage is possible without an icebreaker. Therefore, the equal sign can still be put.
  7. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 13 May 2021 11: 07
    0
    In other words, if desired, in 20-30 years near Arkhangelsk it will be possible to grow something very atypical for this region, but in terms of commercial efficiency, the north will not be able to compete with the southern regions. By the way, climate change will negatively affect the South of Russia: ...

    The proposals contradict one another. And the changes will have a negative impact on the South, not only in Russia. And there are not so many "South" in Russia. He is mainly abroad.
    And besides Arkhangelsk, there are also places a little further south, such as Vologda. Agriculture can develop better there. During the reign of Vologda, she exported butter to the West. It will be possible to grow normal gardens in Yaroslavl.
    As for the NSR, then, given the current trends, in 5 years Russia will restore the USSR's maritime border: from the extreme points of the territory in the west and east to the North Pole. In a straight line. And no one will peep.
  8. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 13 May 2021 11: 20
    0
    According to recent research by Natural Communications, from 48% to 87% of Russia's Arctic infrastructure is located in a risky permafrost melting zone: ..

    The USA was left without permafrost without gasoline. Tankers with Russian oil rush to the rescue. Not free, of course.
    I wrote for a long time that the United States will not last long. Now it became obvious. Biden will ditch his country much faster than we will feel the problems from the thawing of the permafrost. That's why he came.
    Everything will be fine with us. Look at the latest DJ and S&P moves. Soon everyone will forget about petty nonsense, like permafrost.
  9. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 14 May 2021 07: 52
    -1
    I think Greenland was not named for a joke; the permafrost will turn into swamps. Is our business ready to drain them? Only if their taxes are reduced or removed. In our country, only a few people learn risky. Basically, they come to the ready-made. That is why costly regions arise.
  10. aries2200 Offline aries2200
    aries2200 (aries) 20 May 2021 22: 43
    0
    the little ice age is coming ... warming dreamers.