How the American withdrawal from Afghanistan will turn out


Saying one thing and doing another is the basic principle of American foreign policy... Both President Donald Trump and his implacable adversary Joe Biden have pledged to pull troops out of Afghanistan so the American boys can finally fly home. However, the reality is that these same guys under the Stars and Stripes are only gaining a foothold in the Central Asian region.


A month ago, President Biden pledged to complete the US withdrawal from Afghanistan by the 20th anniversary of the 11/18 attacks in New York. It sounds optimistic, but it should be borne in mind that we are talking about a contingent operating as part of an international coalition. And also, by the way, there are military advisers, counter-terrorism units and private military companies. According to the head of the Center for the Study of Modern Afghanistan, Omar Nessar, there are currently about XNUMX thousand fighters of foreign PMCs in his country. Let's not forget about the NATO servicemen remaining there. The key question is what will happen after the main forces of the Pentagon leave Afghanistan, and the next is where exactly they will leave. And this is the most interesting thing.

With a high degree of probability, it can be assumed that the Taliban group (banned in the Russian Federation) will try to demolish the official authorities of Afghanistan in Kabul and take control of the country. It is very possible that it is with this that they will face another terrorist group ISIS, banned in Russia, which has so far lost ground and faded into the shadows. If radical Islamists from ISIS gain the upper hand, they can continue their expansion into neighboring Central Asian republics, creating a serious problem in the southern underbelly for Russia. It is possible that the emergence of such a permanent terrorist threat was one of the goals of the Pentagon strategists. On the eve of some of their other possible plans, the Wall Street Journal, popular in the United States, reported.

According to the WSJ, the US military will leave Afghanistan very close and may be stationed in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Recall that earlier they already had their own military infrastructure at the Uzbek military base Karshi-Khanabad and in the Kyrgyz Manas. Subsequently, the Americans were forced to leave as a result of political pressure from Moscow and Beijing. (Yes, China is in full swing establishing its own order in the territory of the former USSR). In the realities of 2021, the likelihood of the United States returning there and back is very high.

Thus, despite the fact that Kyrgyzstan is a member of the CSTO and the Eurasian Union, Bishkek clearly did not like how, after the “one-day war” with Tajikistan, its President Rakhmon went to the Victory Parade in Moscow, apparently seeking support and protection from the Kremlin. This visit was preceded by the creation by Russia of a joint air defense system with Tajikistan. The scenario with the deployment of American troops on its territory can be used by the Kyrgyz authorities to exert political pressure on the Kremlin in the future conflict between Bishkek and Dushanbe. Perhaps the chances of a renewed US military presence in Uzbekistan are even higher. Tashkent is not at all connected with Russia by any obligations within the framework of the CSTO and the EAEU and can use the American card to bargain with Moscow. The Uzbek authorities are trying to play "multi-vector" in the worst traditions of "Batka", cooperating simultaneously with Russia, the United States, China, Turkey, Pakistan, the official Kabul and the Taliban. On the territory of the former Soviet republics, American shock and reconnaissance drones, bombers, artillery may soon appear - all supposedly to curb the expansion of radical Islamists. However, the possible redeployment of American troops is not limited to these countries.

Wall Street Journal sources report that they can also "leave" to Pakistan, neighboring with Afghanistan. It is interesting that Islamabad itself for a long time sought to withdraw the US contingent from its border area, while making good money on the transit of Pentagon military cargo. This is the kind of "withdrawal of troops" that Washington can get. The next option, which the WSJ talks about, is the deployment in the region on a permanent basis of an aircraft carrier strike group of the US Navy. This is supposedly so that the United States can quickly provide support to the official Afghan government in Kabul in the event of an attack on the capital by Taliban or ISIS forces. In reality, most likely, this AUG will be needed to provide additional military and political pressure on China and Iran. Other "reserve airfields" for the "outgoing" American troops can testify to this as well. According to the Wall Street Journal, if all the previous options for some reason do not work out, the US military contingent will be redeployed to the Persian Gulf region.

In other words, there is no talk at all about the return of American guys from the war home, back to the United States. I wonder what will prevent Washington, under the guise of "withdrawing from Afghanistan", to strengthen its military presence in all the strategic points indicated by the publication at once?
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  1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 11 May 2021 21: 07
    -1
    You see how the inaction of our government creates big problems. So many questions. And I say that mediocrities do not solve problems, they create them!
    1. bonifacius Offline bonifacius
      bonifacius (Alex) 11 May 2021 23: 42
      -1
      Well, it's very bad when people who know how to manage the state and foreign policy work as steelworkers. Maybe it makes sense for you to change your nickname from "steelworker" to, say, at least "the president's groom."
  2. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 11 May 2021 21: 16
    -1
    I wonder what will prevent Washington, under the guise of "withdrawing from Afghanistan", to strengthen its military presence in all the strategic points indicated by the publication at once?

    Yes, nothing will interfere. We won't take away the money and the villa in Miami to the local sovereign thief, but the same Yatsenyuk will confirm, we will also pay extra ...
    And to the common people - $ 600 per month for the operator of a dry closet in Manas ... It's okay!
  3. no, the doodles will flee to America!
  4. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 12 May 2021 13: 23
    +1
    Where is Afghanistan and where is the sea? What are the aircraft of the Navy?

    they can continue their expansion into the neighboring Central Asian republics, creating a serious problem in the southern underbelly for Russia.

    They will create problems for local buys in the first place! Therefore, it is better to join the White Tsar, as it was before, under the Romanovs and the USSR. They lived satisfyingly and calmly, but now bearded guys can come and take everything away, and even cut off their heads live.
  5. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 12 May 2021 17: 07
    -2
    from Afghanistan, the American military will leave very close and can be stationed in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Recall that earlier they already had their own military infrastructure at the Uzbek military base Karshi-Khanabad and in the Kyrgyz Manas. Subsequently, the Americans were forced to leave as a result of political pressure from Moscow and Beijing. (Yes, China is in full swing establishing its own order in the territory of the former USSR). In the realities of 2021, the likelihood of the United States returning there and back is very high.

    - For some reason, everyone somehow very delicately "forgets" about Kazakhstan ...
    - And meanwhile ... - who "owns" Kazakhstan ... - he owns all the former pro-Soviet (under the USSR) SR Asia ... - Of course ... - and Uzbekistan has a lot of weight in this "inflorescence"; but Uzbekistan still continues to keep aloof ... - Everything is calculating ... - "to whom should you offer yourself at a higher price" ...
    - All these limitrophes are not very friendly with each other (to say the least):
    - Turkmenistan generally falls out of this cohort ... - today it is entirely under China ...;
    - Beggars ... - Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan ... - just nobody needs (who will agree to support them; except ... stupid Russia) ... - There will be more than once armed clashes between the armies of the drug barons of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan .. - Colombia will also be jealous of them;
    - And today Kazakhstan is trying with the last bit of strength to keep a "good face" with ... with its own game getting worse and worse ... - If the US and China nevertheless decide to "divide" Kazakhstan more radically ... - then it will not seem enough to anyone .. - But so far the Americans don't need it ... - Because. , if the "maneuvers" with the admission of Ukraine to NATO are successfully carried out ... - Kazakhstan "entirely and entirely" itself will request NATO membership too ...;
    - Most likely ... - Uzbekistan will take a very tough and definite "pro-American policy" ... - or rather, it will try to do it ...
  6. Don36 Offline Don36
    Don36 (Don36) 13 May 2021 00: 29
    +5
    After the US troops entered Afghanistan, the cultivation of opium poppy in Afghanistan increased several times, and all these drugs are now going to the countries of the former USSR and the EU. So whether the United States leaves Afghanistan, or not, this will fundamentally change nothing, and the United States can place its military bases in the rotten Russophobic countries of the former USSR without withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan ...
    1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
      gorenina91 (Irina) 13 May 2021 03: 00
      -1
      So whether the United States leaves Afghanistan, or not, this will not fundamentally change anything, and the United States can place its military bases in the rotten Russophobic countries of the former USSR without withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan ...

      - Yes, that's what we are talking about ... - The main thing for the Americans ... is to neutralize the influence of Russia in these limitrophes and ... - if possible - to neutralize the influence of China as much as possible ...
  7. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 13 May 2021 09: 15
    +1
    Although Russia does not have common borders, this is a sore subject for all of us. The purpose of the invasion of Afghanistan is still not understood by either the Americans or the Europeans. Of course, due to their presence, some of the leaders of the groups enriched themselves. This caused the murmur of the elders, who remember the Soviet soldiers as noble fighters. The presence of the US troops had a detrimental effect on the population of this country. Drug addiction has reached such high levels as in more than one Muslim country.