Why Belarus needs a trade route with Europe bypassing Russia


A year ago, after the ambiguous results of the presidential elections, Alexander Lukashenko barely held on to power only thanks to the direct and unequivocal support of the Kremlin. Now the turn of the official Minsk has come to thank Moscow for its help by taking further steps to economic integration within the Union State. However, "Old Man" has again turned on its proprietary "multi-vector" regime. Why is this dangerous for Russia and for Alexander Grigorievich himself?


As you know, Belarus has no direct access to the sea, but at the same time actively exports oil products, potash fertilizers and other products by sea. Previously, this was done in transit through neighboring Lithuania, but after the events of 2020, for political reasons, Minsk decided to "teach a lesson" to Vilnius by transferring about half of the total volume of gasoline, fuel oil, gas oil and oil to Russian ports in the Baltic. Delivery is carried out by rail, where Belarusian exporters received an “allied” discount on tariffs. The other half remained in Klaipeda. "Multi-vector". Also, Minsk plans to build its own terminal in the Russian Ust-Luga for transshipment of bulk cargo, such as mineral fertilizers, but this is not a quick matter, it will take more than one year.

It would seem that now everything is in order: the long-awaited breakthrough has finally taken place in the issue of reorientation of cargo flows to Russia, and there is nothing for Alexander Grigorievich to "throw a charge". Unfortunately, this is not entirely true. A couple of days ago, the Belarusian Ministry of Transport issued the following statement:

The Belarusian Shipping Company has expressed its readiness to organize experimental flights for the delivery of metallurgical products to European countries through the ports of Odessa (Ukraine) and Smederevo (Serbia) with loading in Mozyr.

Why should we strain ourselves a little from this? On the one hand, Belarus could well use the services of the Russian transport infrastructure. On the other hand, the choice was made in favor of Ukraine, which takes an openly hostile position towards our country and at the same time does not recognize Oleksandr Grigorievich himself as a legitimate president. Why is that?

An important nuance is that deliveries of Belarusian metallurgy products have already been going through Odessa for a long time, and their volumes are only growing. In 2020, the Belarusian Metallurgical Plant exported 460 thousand tons through this Ukrainian port. What kind of "experimental flights" are we talking about then? Obviously, Minsk defiantly wanted to draw the attention of the Kremlin and the domestic media to this route, which bypasses Russia. And he is very interesting. Belarusian products are loaded onto river-sea vessels in Mozyr, they descend along the Pripyat River, which runs through the exclusion zone near the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, to the Dnieper and along it go to Odessa, and from there to Serbia. It would seem that there is nothing wrong with it, an ordinary river trade route. However, there is one fundamental point.

The fact is that this waterway is an integral part of the promising trans-European waterway E40 from Gdansk to Kherson. It is assumed that the Baltic and Black Seas can be connected by a new route "from the Varangians to the Greeks" through the territory of Poland, Belarus and Ukraine. This EU project, called E40, should be implemented within the framework of the Eastern Partnership. Theoretically, in the future, it is possible to connect the Polish Vistula with the French rivers, this route is called the E70. The volume of river trade between the Baltic and the Black Sea basin is estimated at 5-7 million tons per year. Not much, but for Ukraine and Belarus it is quite decent money. In 2019, when President Lukashenko was still shaking hands in the West, he said:

We did everything from our side. There was only one question - and now you have only one thing: the deepening of the bottom of the Pripyat and the Dnieper. We committed ourselves and deepened the Dnieper bottom to Pripyat, now the question is yours. So that "river-sea" ships could pass everywhere.

Why did “Batka” again attract increased attention to the potential of the river route from Belarus to Ukrainian Odessa? The fact is that if the E40 highway is launched, the NATO bloc will be able to transfer its small class warships bypassing the Turkish straits to the Black Sea. Moreover, no restrictions from the notorious Montreux Convention will be imposed on them. It is not surprising that the construction of the E40, despite its not so high economic potential, is of interest to the American expert community as a way to contain Russia's military capabilities.

The only obstacle to the implementation of such a dual-use project can only be the position of Moscow, which can remind Minsk of its allied obligations. And here the "Batka" will open up space for the next political maneuvers, pressure on the Kremlin and trade in their "multi-vector".
15 comments
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  1. Cyril Offline Cyril
    Cyril (Kirill) 7 May 2021 13: 40
    -2
    If you want to live, be able to spin.
    1. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 7 May 2021 15: 52
      +5
      If you want to live, be able to spin.

      Is this your credo in life?
      On the family coat of arms a snake against the background of a frying pan? smile
      1. Cyril Offline Cyril
        Cyril (Kirill) 7 May 2021 16: 12
        -5
        Is this your credo in life?

        No, it's you and Lukashenka of the same berry field. True, he has something to twist about, but you seem to have just such a lifestyle.
  2. AICO Offline AICO
    AICO (Vyacheslav) 7 May 2021 16: 22
    +2
    As if the skewer together with the twist was not unscrewed next time to the very tomatoes, or the phone will be busy or the helicopter to Rostov-on-Don is not refueled !!!
  3. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 7 May 2021 17: 19
    +1
    Ah, "sleight of hand and no fraud"
    That "A year ago after" The media wrote in unison - Old Man was blown away, ran into 33x, it is necessary to displace - already silence.

    Now it's the turn of the official Minsk to thank ...

    - Didn't you confuse it with MMM?

    And Father, as he arranged military exercises on the border with NATO, everyone shuddered.
    Now the Kremlin thanks him - they gave money, part of the debts was forgiven, weapons were planted, the nuclear power plant was built, the logistics were made cheaper ...

    Old Man does not ask, what for does Russia have all the new "Streams" to NATO countries ....
  4. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 7 May 2021 18: 04
    0
    Why Belarus needs a trade route with Europe bypassing Russia

    - Yes, bullshit ...

    Once a Swan, Cancer, yes Pike
    They took it with luggage

    - Who needs such an absurdity ... - Maybe they will also build sluices in several places ... - And what are they going to carry and where ??? - To Persia, or what ???
    - And at whose expense this "banquet" will take place ??? - China will not get into this "problematic and conflictual" Black Sea ...
    - And the Americans do not even need all this ...
    - But here again we should talk about Lukashenka ... - How many personally I wrote (I just lost my account) that Lukashenko's Russia should be "removed" ... - this "friendship" between Russia and Belarus will end very badly. .. - And very soon ...
    - It all reminds of the "friendship" of the USSR with ... with ... with Anvar Sadat; which ended with the Camp David Agreements ... - For the USSR it was then such a blow that ... what ... what ...
    - So we can expect something similar from Lo (Lukashenka) ...
    - The question is ... - why "expect" ???
  5. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
    Ulysses (Alexey) 7 May 2021 19: 31
    +1
    Obviously, Minsk defiantly wanted to draw the attention of the Kremlin and the domestic media to this route, which bypasses Russia. And he is very interesting. Belarusian products are loaded onto river-sea vessels in Mozyr, they descend along the Pripyat River, which runs through the exclusion zone near the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, to the Dnieper and along it go to Odessa, and from there to Serbia. It would seem that there is nothing wrong with it, an ordinary river trade route. However, there is one fundamental point.

    The fact is that this waterway is an integral part of the promising trans-European waterway E40 from Gdansk to Kherson..

    There is nothing promising there.
    Therefore, the burden lasts for more than a hundred years.

    According to the calculations of Western European experts, the total freight turnover between Poland, Belarus and Ukraine along the Baltic-Black Sea waterway may be 5-7 million tons annually, which is several times less than the same indicator of such seaports as Klaipeda, Gdansk and Odessa.

    Old Man wants multi-vector?
    In the near future, he will have his fill.
  6. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
    Kofesan (Valery) 7 May 2021 19: 46
    +2
    But father really needs these 5-7 million tons. As an opportunity to hide muddy trades from the Russian customs.
    Although it is difficult to believe in the E-40, as well as the fact that the Montreux doctrine applies to the straits, and not to the ships of non-Black Sea countries.
    1. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 7 May 2021 20: 18
      0
      hide from Russian customs

      How long ago and what did you hide from customs? Share, well, just wondering?
      1. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
        Kofesan (Valery) 7 May 2021 20: 34
        0
        And what, should I answer to ... "this"? I'll pick a more decent word ...

        Lukashenka doesn't know whose Crimea! And the export of weapons ...
        Not so long ago he shouted "that Russia gave him cancer", not noticing that he was crawling on all fours in front of the West. Including this project. It is clear that the West castrates him in any case, but the stubborn hope does not lose ...

        And don't juggle. Secretly selling and buying something that Russia will not tolerate is its nature. And with this "praect" he clearly dreams of "making friends" with Ukraine. They are closer to him than Russia. As proof, let me remind you that Ukraine has not yet recognized it as "president."

        Only you and, in the end, the present Kremlin do not notice this.
    2. AICO Offline AICO
      AICO (Vyacheslav) 7 May 2021 21: 12
      0
      On the way, domestic shrimps will be inflated to the size of lobsters!
      1. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
        Kofesan (Valery) 8 May 2021 10: 02
        -1
        But no one will reproach my father for smuggling. "And drew from under the pier ... And the shrimps, so they themselves crawled out to the pier ... Well, we, do not be fools, collected - hard-working, patamu INTO"

  7. Wanderer039 Offline Wanderer039
    Wanderer039 8 May 2021 12: 40
    +5
    The crafty Russian Federation is not an ally, but a typical self-appointed person who does not recognize the Crimea as part of the Russian Federation and quietly banned the St. George ribbon in the Republic of Bashkortostan, there is now an apple-tree instead of it, and in Kazakhstan he called Russia an occupier who imposed his wars on the Republic of Bashkortostan. In general, with friends like the Evil One, you don't need enemies ... It's time to stop feeding at the expense of the Russian Federation and to the detriment of the Russian Federation to the Evil One Satan! Let's see how long he and his family will live without the help of the Russian Federation! They will hang this rot, like Hussein, and this is what he deserves with his rottenness and venality, which he disguises as a multi-vector. He who is not with us is against us! And those who are both ours and yours, and more to them than to us, we do not need! In the Russian Federation he takes money, and all thoughts about how to lick the ass of the western owners! Ugh, abomination!
  8. Suddenly, don't save Dad Lou!
  9. oderih Offline oderih
    oderih (Alex) 9 May 2021 22: 35
    0
    This is the first time I hear about metallurgy in Syabrs. Most likely there is electrometallurgy at the expense of nuclear power plants. And in Ukraine, waterways have been buried for a long time.