The last couple of weeks, almost the entire world политическая the scene is trying to figure out "What or who is behind the explosions of military warehouses in the Czech Republic?" Although this question is initially wrong. Firstly, it stood or stood, since the excess itself is already more than six years old. And secondly, even if the scale of the incident, which for the Czech Republic itself was at that time a fairly large emergency, but certainly did not pull on a world-class event, and suddenly, after such a time, it literally "blew up" the entire European (and not only) politics, it means that someone needs it right now.
That is, the question should sound something like this: "What or who is behind the unexpected inflating of the case of six years ago with the explosion of military warehouses in the Czech Republic?" This is much closer to the essence of the whole problem of today, since the very story of the explosions had already seemed to be closed as a man-made disaster, and then everyone was satisfied with this version. She, by the way, was confirmed by all the investigative actions, which lasted about two years. And then suddenly on you! Petrov and Boshirov worked again! And again, somehow not very high quality, if you believe in all the versions of Western comrades ...
To better understand what is happening, it is necessary to consider the event from different angles. In this case, I propose, so to speak, three axes of coordinates: The first is the incident itself, as it was, what was, when, etc., the second is economic consequences, third - political. As is known from school mathematics, having dealt with the position along these axes, we will be able to better understand the position of the "object in space". In our case, a specific event and its possible real causes and consequences.
The first is explosions
This, in fact, in this whole story is the only real and fully confirmed fact - they were. First, in the warehouse area of Vrbetice in the southeast of the Czech Republic, after a fire on October 16, 2014, weapons warehouse no. 16 exploded, killing two people inside. Then, on December 3, 2014, warehouse # 12 flew into the air in the same area.
The warehouses at that time officially belonged to the IMEX group and, according to the representatives of this company, contained artillery ammunition of obsolete Soviet models intended for sale abroad. The company had the appropriate licenses for the arms trade, and the buyer was also a licensed company from Bulgaria. This scheme is quite standard for modern Eastern Europe. Let me explain the meaning: in the army warehouses of the Czech Republic, which joined NATO, there is a huge amount of weapons and ammunition, in the former "Warsaw Pact" previously intended to provide front lines in the event of a conflict with the West, in its first phase. Since it was precisely the territories of Czechoslovakia and the GDR that were presumably the primary theater of such a conflict. After joining the North Atlantic Alliance, the West demanded that new members switch to their standards. This is also a huge business. And what to do with the existing "outdated" weapons worth many millions of Euros? Well, do not destroy it?
But from the "civilized" countries, which are also in NATO standards, no one needs it for obvious reasons. But some people need somewhere, where they will pay for all this remarkably, but the problem is either conflict zones, or countries "not credible to the international community." That is, the sale is impossible at the state level. Then a license is issued to a private company (such as IMEX), military warehouses are leased to it and with the contents "for sale", and this company is already selling weapons to another company, from Bulgaria - this is also a NATO and EU country, has no conflict on its territory, in the list of terrorist states is not listed, in short, according to all laws, everything is in order - the Czechs have nothing to show. Further, a Bulgarian private company becomes the owner of the goods, which, meanwhile, does not even leave the Czech warehouse, and offers it to someone else. If suddenly someone makes claims to Bulgaria for selling weapons to where it is impossible, then the answer is simple: this is not Bulgaria, the incriminated weapon in Bulgaria has not been produced, has not been registered and has never even been found on Bulgarian territory. The sale was carried out by one private company to another, and that - by a third extraterritorially. Everything. The ends are in the water, as they say. Well, of course, they declare, of course, mainly various artillery ammunition, etc., which they say is not of interest to various revolutionaries and terrorists, but is intended for certain regular armies of some third countries that are armed with "outdated" models. And if a company is attracted, then it can be “punished” or closed, and then just open a new one with a new license. In this way, excellent weapons go directly from Czech (and not only) army warehouses to Syria, Libya, Ukraine, etc. and nothing happens to anyone for this. A simple three-way move ...
The explosions in Vrbetice introduced an unexpected problem into this spent system: firstly, the goods themselves were destroyed for a large sum, and secondly, local firefighters and police pyrotechnics (they themselves, of course, had nothing to do with these "gray" schemes) suddenly took yes published photos and videos of finds from the scene of the explosions - and there, in addition to the usually declared artillery ammunition, there are machine guns, machine guns, and grenade launchers, and much more interesting just for terrorists and self-styled revolutionaries of all stripes.
Moreover, reports arrived that all this beauty was preparing to be sent abroad, and not just lying there. Considering that without the participation of the special services of this very NATO, in such a thoroughly transparent country like the Czech Republic, nothing like this can be done, it was a failure just for the special services involved. Therefore, apparently, it was then that they tried to hush up all this as quickly and painlessly for themselves. Nevertheless, the event was loud, the investigative actions continued for almost two years. The verdict "negligence" then suited everyone, and gradually, as it were, forgot about various strange details ... And it’s as if this whole tragic story would have been forgotten if it hadn’t been suddenly brought back to light in 2021. Yes, how pulled out! It turns out that the warehouses in Vrbetice were blown up by Russian spies! Precisely because they knew where and why this weapon should have been sent, and this was contrary to the interests of the Russian Federation. It was then that all the almost forgotten details of the Vrbetitsa case "surfaced" again. But, unfortunately for those who voiced this phenomenal news Czech politicians, just all these details, not yet completely forgotten by the public, were more likely to refute the new version than vice versa. And this latest version is as follows - right in the warehouse, the Russians planted a kind of bomb in the "goods", which, however, was supposed to explode not in the Czech Republic, but somewhere along the road or even in Bulgaria. But something went wrong ...
1. Warehouse # 16 burned for quite a long time before it exploded - at least 30 minutes. This is confirmed by the certificates of firefighters, photos and video documentation from the site. It doesn't look like a bomb at all. The firefighters also reported that at the time of their arrival, the doors of the warehouse were wide open, but the personnel were nowhere to be seen. And the fire itself was not very strong, it seemed to spread from the central part of the building, accompanied by a slow burning of the roof and strong choking smoke. That is, both gunsmiths who died in this warehouse were dead or at least seriously injured before or during the fire, since otherwise they had enough time to leave the facility before the explosion.
2. After the explosion, the remains were found at the site of not quite what had been declared. And it's hard to believe that IMEX itself hid the contents of the warehouses - the company received them from the army along with the contents. That is, like, the Czech Ministry of Defense did not know what was there? And the local special services did not control what and how is sold abroad? It's hard to believe.
3. After the tragedy, thorough inspections were carried out in all other warehouses of the area after the tragedy, and many violations of the regime and fire safety requirements were found. No explosive devices or bugs were found. But banned anti-personnel mines were found, as a result of which a criminal case was even opened. Representatives of the IMEX company, however, immediately justified themselves by the fact that the mines were not complete, but only their bodies, without fuses and explosive filler. Everyone understands that mines are not stored in warehouses in equipped and combat-ready condition, but they did not focus on this, as well as where, in fact, there may be missing parts of these very forbidden mines. And then, apparently by pure chance, just in the process of carrying out these very revisions, the second warehouse suddenly burst open. Fuses and fillers for these "mine bodies" were never found in Vrbetice at that time ... As, however, they did not find any traces of some kind of sabotage activity.
4. If the fire and subsequent explosion of the first warehouse still fit into the version of negligence and / or technical problems during storage and handling of unsafe material (this is the verdict of the court in 2016), then in the second case, suspicions immediately arose that someone something I probably wanted to hide. But the second explosion, after all the inspections, was also recognized as a consequence of negligence. Strange, huh? Well, after the first explosion and in the presence of all control bodies, perhaps they should have somehow tightened up the regime at this facility? Nevertheless, and with all the accompanying oddities, the case was rushed to close. No one was ever punished as a result. Also strange enough. People died there, the life of an entire settlement was simply paralyzed for several months, and the population was evacuated, and the material damage was enormous ... But, apparently, there were even higher interests in this even then.
All of the above is, as it is fashionable to say now, materiel - what really took place, and to which questions arose even then. Now to the new spy theory from April 2021.
As I already wrote on this topic and earlier on "Reporter", with a glance at the content of these warehouses and the geography of possible destinations for this "product", the interest of the Russian special services in these objects seems quite probable and justified. But such "partisan" methods of influence by the SVR or the GRU of the Russian Federation on an object located in the center of Europe, and not somewhere in the conflict zone in the Middle East, somehow do not fit into my head. And the declared participation in the action of such characters as Petrov and Boshirov, they are Mishkin and Chepiga, etc., in general for me personally translates everything described into the plane of a comic strip with a continuation. Apparently, in cases of Navalny's "poisoning" and the Malaysian Boeing shot down over Ukraine, their Western colleagues did not record these two, so that it would not seem like idiocy at all. Or they seriously decided that they work for Russian intelligence exclusively on the outer circuit. And so everything is very similar - there is no evidence or there is evidence, but so secret that it cannot be published in any way. That is, you just have to take your word for it. Moreover, those who were repeatedly caught in lies. By the way, I never could understand this: well, well, you don’t want to give out intelligence work, information flow chains, etc., it’s clear, but if we are talking about an international scandal with far-reaching consequences, then at least the facts themselves - photos, videos, documents of some kind, test results, correspondence, testimony of third-party witnesses, proving your proposed version, show ... But no, they do not show anything of the word at all. And this inevitably suggests that there is nothing at all, except for someone in some way profitable unsubstantiated allegations.
Nevertheless, this whole performance continues, and at the highest possible levels in world politics. And with nobody, nothing and never unproven simulations, even the respected world and European media are already treating them as if they were long established facts. For example, in the same Czech media space and in the statements of politicians, such an indisputable fact is the involvement of Petrov and Boshirov in the poisoning of the Skripals in England, as well as their solemn awarding personally to V.V. Putin for the rescue of Ukrainian President Yanukovych in 2014. In all seriousness and with full responsibility. I even began to doubt myself - maybe I missed this news? I looked where I could have at least something about this award, but apart from the information of the notorious and extremely “independent” Bellingcat, which was later cackled by various Russian-speaking foreign agents such as RBC, Meduza and others like them, I naturally did not find anything anywhere ...
In the Czech Republic itself, absolutely everyone, with positions and shoulder straps, except, apparently, President Zeman and his closest circle, took a tough pro-government position, regardless of what nonsense this government said and no matter what stupidity they did - positions and shoulder straps to everyone expensive, as well as the associated well-being. Therefore, more or less adequate statements, as usual, can be heard only from those former functionaries who are no longer in active service and in high positions. For example, a general with a resounding name Andor Sandor, who until 2012 was the chief of Czech military intelligence, who began his officer career under the Warsaw Pact, who subsequently underwent training in the West, believes that the version about the participation of Petrov and Boshirov in the action with the explosions of military warehouses is not plausible ... As a scout, it seems to him extremely strange that agents on a serious assignment along the way actively take “selfie” photos with local sights, send them to relatives and post them on social networks.
During the Salisbury incident, by the way, they practiced the same thing. The fact that the building of warehouse # 16 burned for a long time and exploded only later, like the next explosion almost a month and a half later and after the inspections of these facilities, also seems strange to the general, if we consider everything as a planned sabotage of the Russian special services. Also doubtful, from his point of view, is the version about "a bomb that was supposed to explode later." This "later", according to the former head of the Czech military intelligence, could, in the event of a similar plan, generally lead to irreparable consequences - for example, an explosion somewhere along the way, God forbid, at a train station or among residential buildings. From this point of view, the elimination of the goal, if there was any, right in the warehouse in an object sufficiently isolated from people is much more reasonable and feasible.
Based on the version proposed by the Czech government, it turns out that only idiots and incompetent ones work in Russian intelligence ... For us, as a NATO member, this would certainly be positive news, but in reality it is not at all true
- said the Czech general.
The interview with him is titled: "Why would the Russians do this so stupid?" Another no less famous military specialist in the Czech Republic - the first person in the army, after the commander-in-chief (president), the former chief of the general staff, General of the Army Jiri Shedivy, on the contrary, considers the version with the participation of Petrov and Boshirov possible. True, with the proviso that these two were either a group conducting some kind of red herring, or even directed the process without personally participating in it.
Nevertheless, with or without Russian spies, all this was initially quite dark and was already so diligently hushed up by someone, the story with the explosions of military warehouses near the Czech Vrbetice surfaced again. And there is nothing good for the Czechs in this - apart from the fact that somehow they still have to substantiate such serious accusations against Russia, sooner or later they will have to answer all the other so successfully "blurred" topics: and about what is there was actually kept; and about where and to whom it was sold; and why there were forbidden mines; and about those who and how it all organized, under whose cover, and a lot about what else.
And if the Czechs nevertheless somehow prove the participation of the Russian special services in this case, then with the same they will confirm the facts of the sale of their weapons to the place where they should not have been ... There is simply no other way.
The second is the economy
In response to no one and nothing as yet unproven hostile actions of Russia against the Czech Republic, the government of the latter immediately made a number of harsh statements, the essence of which, in short, is that all previously planned joint large projects in the economic sphere and agreements on them actually expire. Of the latest such projects and agreements at the interstate level, and those that are most widely heard, one cannot but mention two: the planned supply of the Russian vaccine against COVID-19 Sputnik-V to the Czech Republic, as well as the possible production of this drug in the Czech territory. and participation of the state corporation "Rosatom" in the tender for the construction of a new nuclear reactor for the Czech nuclear power plant in Dukovany. That is, the Czechs, in fact, refused the vaccine, directly according to the Ukrainian scenario - you cannot, they say, take it from an aggressor country. And Prime Minister Babish himself announced the exclusion of Rosatom from the tender, citing "security requirements" - in no case should the state's energy system be dependent on the aggressor country.
At first, literally in the very first hours after the government's announcement, the failure of these two projects was presented as the proud and independent behavior of a proud and independent country that was offended. Maybe. Six years ago. But neither the first nor the second, as well as the offense itself, and who offended it is not yet certain - the investigation is underway. Some individuals who are not particularly gifted with intelligence continue to support this thesis about the independent and proud behavior of the Chechen Republic. The smarter ones quickly saw in the behavior of the Czech cabinet a “shot in the foot” in the interests of some third parties. In this case, the leading American pharmaceutical companies - manufacturers of vaccines, as well as the American-Canadian company Westinghouse, which was also going to take part in the tender for the construction of a new Czech nuclear reactor, were positioned as "third parties".
But in fact, after an in-depth look at the real facts, things turned out to be even worse. The cabinet of Andrei Babish, with its rash statements, did not just “shoot himself in the foot”, or rather not himself, but the entire country entrusted to him. If we continue this allegory, then they shot in both feet at once, risking making the Czech Republic a complete economic invalid for a long time, if not forever.
As for Sputnik-V, it is of course beneficial for Russia to promote its vaccine abroad. But the refusal of the small Czech Republic from such supplies can cause damage to the Russian Federation only moral, and even then minimal, in comparison with the real damage to the Czech Republic itself. The fact is that the vaccine is severely lacking just in Europe. The contracts concluded centrally through the EU authorities are canceled one by one. Moreover, there are already strong questions about the quality of some drugs and side effects. Due to the covid restrictions that have gone on for the second year, the Czech economy is already in a rather deplorable state. There is nowhere to pay compensations constantly required by the business - there are no reserves, the national debt is already high. And everything that has already been paid or is being collected, as it has already become clear to everyone, in the near future the state will want to get back through an increase in various tax rates. And so far, only risk groups, people over 65 and personnel of some vital services for the population are vaccinated.
For those who are just doing the real economy - ordinary healthy middle-aged people, the vaccination queue looms in about a year. In this situation, even one million doses of the Russian vaccine, which was originally discussed, in a country of ten million people could serve as an excellent service for the quickest recovery of the situation in the literal sense of these words. In addition, the Czech Republic has all the necessary capacities to deploy the production of vaccines that are so much needed all over the world. And the Russian Federation offers such an opportunity. And this is not only about helping people, but also about the economic development that is so necessary for the whole country, new jobs, and in one of the most high-tech areas. To refuse such an offer is more than just stupidity, it is a crime against one's own people and state. With the vaccine, everything is clear. But here there is, although the worst in quality and less in quantity, but still at least some kind of alternative to Western supplies.
But the reactor is even more interesting. Fortunately, the conditions of the competition for such a high-tech work of art as a nuclear power unit are written not by politicians, but by specialized specialists - nuclear scientists. The price of the issue is about 6 billion Euros of public funds, the energy independence of the entire country is at stake for decades to come, that is, the decision is extremely responsible. And local experts approached him extremely responsibly. Hence the conditions of the tender arose in which, except for Rosatom with its clearly the best offer from all sides, no one else could have won. I don’t know if the Czech nuclear scientists informed their politicians about this, but as soon as they heard what was said about the exclusion of Rosatom from the tender for the construction of a power unit, these same experts immediately announced that in this case, a new power unit in the Czech Republic in the foreseeable future will not be at all. And all the talk about the decision in favor of Western competition is just idle chatter. Initially, five companies from five countries were supposed to participate in the tender: China, Russia, USA, France and South Korea. The Chinese, as it were, fell out immediately, on the one hand, under pressure from the Americans and the EU, on the other, since their Technology in the nuclear field in Europe they are considered the same Russian ones, only not the most advanced and worse in terms of the quality of performance. Companies from France and South Korea have experience and projects for the construction of 1600 and 1400 MW reactors, respectively, in Dukovany the required capacity is 1200 MW. For Koreans and French, if chosen, it would have been a previously untested prototype anywhere. Of all the participants, such reactors have already been built by only two - "Rosatom" and "Westinghouse". But the latter just went through the bankruptcy procedure, having two unfinished such power units in the United States. Also, the new reactor will have to work, albeit separately, but in the same control circuit with the old Soviet units, and only Rosatom can fully guarantee safety and synchronization. Moreover, within the framework of the contract, the Russian Federation also offers complete disposal of spent nuclear fuel on its own territory. In the case of any other performance, the Czechs will have to build a nuclear repository or pay someone crazy money for the transport and disposal of radioactive material. Both are very problematic.
And the new Czech power unit is needed like air. Until now, the country has a surplus of electricity, which is even sold for export, mainly to neighboring Germany. But consumption is on the rise, while traditional coal-fired power plants are shutting down due to EU environmental regulations. The country is faced with a choice - either expanding its own nuclear energy, or depending on prices and energy supplies from abroad. Even if we do not take into account the fact that electricity generation is the last large industry in which the Czech Republic is still relatively independent and still makes money on it, the mere fact that electricity prices in the country will be dictated from the outside will lead to an increase in the price of domestic product, increase in utility bills and, as a result, a strong decline in the standard of living of citizens. Now, and with relatively low wages by European standards, Czechs do not live in poverty at all due to fairly low utility costs. That is, "beautifully and proudly" to blurt out something to the whole world is one thing, but the harsh reality is quite another. And if, again, for Russia the loss of a contract for 6 billion euros is a significant, but not vital problem, then the consequences of all this for the Czech Republic itself can be more than deplorable on a national scale and for a long time.
Third - politics
Everyone knows about the expulsion of 18 Russian diplomats from Prague and 20 Czech diplomats from Moscow, which severely limited the work of both embassies. All this is unlikely to help the recovery of the mutual tourist flow, which has been so severely decimated by the pandemic. Czech specialists and entrepreneurs working on the territory of the Russian Federation are also strongly advised by their own Ministry of Foreign Affairs to weigh the necessity of their visit to Russia or being there, with a glance at the practical lack of consular support. Against the background of what is happening, Russophobic sentiments in Czech society have sharply increased, attacks on monuments, embassy and consular facilities of the Russian Federation, etc. have resumed. The attitude towards the Czech Republic among Russians has clearly not improved because of everything that is happening. Since the Czechs "complained" about the actions of the Russians in the EU and NATO, and called on their neighbors to solidarity, the matter, naturally, did not end with the deterioration of only the Czech-Russian relations. But this is all the visible side of the coin.
There is also another, not so noticeable. It concerns why, in general, the Czech leadership did all this in this very form and right now, five years after the completion of the official investigation, in the seventh year after the incident, which in itself was not such a global catastrophe. If only proceeding from the fact that the Czech courts for all this did not punish anyone so seriously. Although some of the participants were initially 12 years old, and the firms were liquidated. The result is zero, negligence, no one is to blame, except for the victims themselves ...
Everyone who saw the speeches of key Czech politicians on April 17, 18 and 19 clearly had the impression that these people were very frightened and very nervous. Prime Minister Babish himself changed his own version of events three times in three days, almost stuttering, which is extremely unusual for him. It felt like everything that was described happened no more than six years ago, but right now, and some terrible threat literally hangs in the air ... From minute to minute, something will explode again ...
Like the two generals I mentioned earlier, another well-known security expert, politician, diplomat, former ambassador of the Chechen Republic to India and Bhutan, Jaromir Novotny, belongs to those people who literally by their own efforts brought the Czech Republic to NATO, that is, to suspect them of some sympathy for Russia, well, in no way. But he also notes the extremely inadequate reaction of the cabinet to the incident, as well as the very suspicious time that was chosen for the announcement and the general nervous situation, which in no way corresponds to the scale of the incident itself, much less the time that has passed since the incident. Novotny also believes that the Babis government was openly and sharply pressed from the outside with the help of the Czech intelligence service BIS, which has been in close cooperation with the US CIA for a long time. True, in his opinion, this is due precisely to the tender for the completion of the nuclear power plant - just on that day, it seemed that documents for security checks were to be sent to all participants, Rosatom was among the addressees, despite the obvious displeasure of the United States.
But only neither Jaromir Novotny, nor well-known and respected generals, who in the Czech Republic, by the way, can be counted on the fingers, neither other experts nor local journalists, and even more so neither the Czech government itself anywhere and never mentioned two more important reasons just on a global scale, who, perhaps, ordered from the outside to "cover up" the Czechs by shooting themselves in both feet with the incident with the explosion in Vrbetitsy - the first is, of course, the coup d'etat in Belarus thwarted by the special services of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus with an attempt on the life of President Lukashenko and his family the second - the facts that have surfaced again, increasingly confirming the artificial origin of the new coronavirus, namely the leak in one of the mysterious biological laboratories of the US Army scattered around the world.
And the reaction from the States themselves to these things is also indicative: we don't know anything, we don't hear anything, and “our heads are in the sand” ... It's strange that they are interested in gay rights in Chechnya or every pimple on the ass of Navalny, who is in a well-deserved prison, and about they all know in detail - and here is a coup, an attempt on the life of the president of not the smallest European country and a world nightmare in the form of a pandemic, and in the USA they suddenly know nothing at all and know nothing about ...
And the methods of conducting the "investigation", both in terms of the origin of the coronavirus and in the explosions in the Czech Republic, are somehow painfully similar - weren't they invented in the same place? In both cases, it is officially stated that "work is going on with only one version." In the variant of the explosion of warehouses - Russian spies, and with a virus - only natural reasons for the appearance.
Only, in my opinion, it is hardly possible to call a process with a predetermined answer to all questions a consequence. Indeed, in this version, only those proofs are considered that a previously given version, at least indirectly, is confirmed, and those that directly refute it are not taken into account. And this has already become a kind of norm - just adjusting the "results of the investigation" to a predetermined answer ...
But no matter how hard the WHO experts try to fulfill the order and justify this very only version, the chain "someone - a bat - a pangalin - a person" in the sense of a direct transmission of the virus does not work out well, even if we assume that they all ate each other, and raw - the genetics of the virus itself interferes, as well as the food preferences of all participants. And the American military biological laboratories are top secret, they will not let anyone there and will not tell anyone anything.
Yes, and with Czech warehouses, there is also a similar problem - if we consider the same, the only acceptable version, then from all sides idiocy turns out and all the facts seem to be against. And those who are "for" should not be shown to anyone, they are so secret ...
Somehow all this is very similar. Directly the handwriting is the same - the chemical attacks in Syria, the Skripali, the downed Malaysian Boeing, to the investigation of which the Malaysians themselves were not allowed at all - no matter what was spoiled in the previously adopted version, the "poisoning" of Navalny, the explosions of Czech warehouses and ... the coronavirus ...
And in the latter case, if it turns out to prove the opposite of the "generally accepted" version by someone, then this someone will have a very bad time, in spite of all the superpower titles and opportunities. Apparently, this is where they will end. But it will take some time.
In the meantime, we will observe what the Czech authorities will do next, who themselves have so stupidly driven into a trap their own country - will come to their senses and turn on the "reverse gear" or finish this ritual suicide for the glory of someone else's ideas and someone else's welfare. They really don't have much time to make decisions.